稀土精矿Q4关联交易价环比仅+0.53%至38,769元/吨，同比+48%高位企稳但下游采购谨慎

China's rare-earth concentrate prices remain nearly 50% above year-earlier levels despite a marginal fourth-quarter increase, underscoring persistent raw material cost pressures even as downstream buyers resist higher prices.

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union and China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech announced on October 9 that their fourth-quarter 2026 transaction price would rise 0.53% from the previous quarter to CNY38,769 (approx. US$5,792) per metric ton, excluding tax. The price is approximately 48% above the CNY26,205 recorded a year earlier.
The new price applies to dry concentrate containing 50% rare-earth oxides (REO), with each percentage-point change in REO content adjusting the price by CNY775.38 per ton.
According to Securities Times , concentrate prices surged 44.61% quarter-on-quarter to CNY38,804 in the second quarter before easing to CNY38,565 in the third. The latest adjustment suggests prices have stabilized near elevated levels rather than entered a renewed sharp uptrend.
Rare-earth concentrate, produced by enriching mined ore, is a key feedstock for smelting and separation. Its pricing directly affects resource producers' revenue and downstream processors' costs. Baotou Steel Union operates one of the world's major concentrate production facilities, while Northern Rare Earth relies on the material for its processing operations.
Strong producer earnings contrast with cautious buying
Elevated rare-earth prices have supported upstream earnings. Baotou Steel Union reported first-half 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY279 million, up 84.61% year-on-year, with rare-earth operations helping offset pressure on its steel business.
Northern Rare Earth's attributable net profit surged 120.46% to CNY2.053 billion. The company attributed the improvement to constrained supply, partly reflecting China's rare-earth production quotas, and stronger demand from new energy, humanoid robots, and AI computing servers.
Rare-earth permanent magnets are also widely used in electric vehicles, energy-efficient appliances, and electric motors, making praseodymium and neodymium prices important determinants of manufacturing costs, according to Chinese financial news outlet CLS .
Nevertheless, higher upstream prices have not translated into uniformly stronger demand.
Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) reported that praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices have remained broadly stable, supported by producers' reluctance to sell at lower prices. Downstream buyers, however, remain hesitant to accept elevated feedstock costs, leaving the market caught between firm supplier quotations and cautious purchasing.
Northern Rare Earth expects the traditional second-half inventory-building season to support magnet demand, particularly for higher-end products. The company also anticipates modest improvements in optical and consumer electronics demand, though conventional civilian applications for hydrogen-storage alloy powders remain weak. Solid-state hydrogen storage could provide longer-term opportunities.
Supply constraints support prices, but demand limits upside
Market forecasts remain divided over the strength of the rare-earth recovery.
CITIC Securities expects the global rare-earth supply-demand deficit to widen from 2026, supporting a gradual price increase. SDIC Securities (formerly Anxin Securities) sees relatively stronger performance in heavy rare earths, with delays at some overseas projects creating opportunities for Chinese producers. China Galaxy Securities also expects Northern Rare Earth's profitability to improve.
Near-term conditions are less decisive. Industry analysts warn that relatively ample inventories at magnet manufacturers and cautious procurement could limit further gains, particularly if supply loosens in October.
The central question for the fourth quarter is whether seasonal restocking develops into sustained orders across rare-earth separation and permanent-magnet manufacturing.
Though concentrate prices have risen only 0.53% sequentially, their nearly 48% annual increase leaves downstream manufacturers facing substantially higher input costs. Whether suppliers can pass those increases to customers will be critical to margins throughout the value chain.
For China's rare-earth industry, elevated feedstock prices demonstrate continued upstream pricing strength, but a broader recovery will depend on actual downstream consumption rather than price increases alone.