DigiTimes 评论文章重提美国太阳能最低进口价政策（12月4日生效），警告规避、抢运库存使台厂短期受益或推迟至2027年，无新增事实

The US is seeking to improve the competitiveness of domestic solar manufacturers and attract overseas investment through minimum import price requirements for solar products. However, supply chain sources cautioned that frequent changes in US policies and regulations could complicate implementation.

Four major uncertainties warrant attention: whether the price restrictions can be effectively enforced, the risk of circumvention, inventory pressure from accelerated imports ahead of implementation, and whether investments in US manufacturing can generate sustainable profits.
The US has announced minimum import prices of US$0.22 per watt for polysilicon-based solar cells and US$0.38 per watt for polysilicon-based solar modules, scheduled to take effect on December 4, 2026. Measures have also been introduced to restrict stockpiling ahead of the new rules.
However, policy details and enforcement mechanisms remain subject to further observation. For Taiwanese manufacturers, whether the price restrictions can meaningfully reshape market competition has yet to be demonstrated.
Europe's experience raises concerns over price circumvention
Supply chain sources warned that minimum import price requirements could be circumvented, potentially undermining their intended protective effects.
They pointed to Europe's previous implementation of minimum import prices (MIPs), when some Chinese manufacturers reportedly used rebates, discounts, and complimentary products to effectively reduce transaction costs.
Such practices created discrepancies between officially declared prices and actual transaction terms, making the restrictions less effective in protecting domestic manufacturers.
A substantial number of European solar manufacturers subsequently exited the market. Even when some considered returning in recent years, challenges involving production scale, technological maturity, and cost competitiveness made it difficult to regain a meaningful foothold.
Industry participants are concerned that similar practices could emerge in the US.
If manufacturers find ways to reduce effective selling prices despite the minimum import requirements, the restrictions may fail to prevent low-price competition, leaving market conditions largely unchanged.
Pre-deadline shipments could delay benefits until 2027
Another major uncertainty involves accelerated shipments ahead of the December implementation date.
Supply chain sources said overseas manufacturers are rushing to deliver solar cells and modules to the US before the new requirements take effect.
However, the actual volume of inventory accumulating in the market remains difficult to determine.
The US has also introduced measures targeting stockpiling before implementation, including import control rules involving the Department of Commerce and restrictions enforced by US Customs and Border Protection.
The effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain.
Industry participants warned that if accumulated inventories are sufficiently large, they could continue meeting market demand through the end of 2027.
Under such circumstances, US buyers may prioritize existing inventory even after the minimum import prices take effect.
Taiwanese manufacturers would therefore not necessarily receive additional orders immediately, and the benefits of the policy could take longer to materialize.
Import costs and investment returns remain key considerations
Minimum import prices also do not represent the final cost of importing solar products into the US.
Other applicable tariffs may be imposed separately, further increasing overall import expenses.
Manufacturers must also assess potential order volumes, operating expenses, and investment payback periods before committing to US production facilities.
Consequently, minimum import price requirements alone are insufficient to determine whether establishing manufacturing operations in the US would be profitable.
Supply chain sources believe the restrictions could create new market opportunities for Taiwanese solar manufacturers, although the extent of their near-term impact remains uncertain.
Over the longer term, however, industry participants remain optimistic about the prospects for supply chains without Chinese ownership or affiliations in the US solar market.