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🇭🇰 港交所NIO-SWCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 12:26:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 12:28:57·⚡ 决策 09-01 12:30:48 +1m51s·56.3 天前

蔚来8月交付35,836辆,同比增14.5%,但环比基本持平且增速较7月明显放缓

这是蔚来一手月度交付披露,方向不是纯利多:8月交付同比仍增,但环比低于7月且同比增速从7月71.0%降至14.5%,同时二季度业绩同日发布预期会压过该月度数据;在未取得 stock_tools 实时报价和历史走势的情况下,不给可执行交易。

📄 原文NIO-SW↗ 原文
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility for the con…
不做 蔚来集团(09866.HK)
8月交付同比增长但环比不增、增速较7月明显放缓,且同日财报将覆盖该月度数据;未取得 stock_tools 实时报价和走势校验,不做。
不做 蔚来集团(NIO.US)
ADR为同一直接敞口,但美股未开盘且事件预期差不足,需等财报和真实盘前报价确认,不给交易单。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

蔚来8月交付35,836辆,较7月35,934辆基本持平略降,说明多品牌放量持续但边际加速不足;对蔚来集团(9866.HK/NIO.US)是基本面温和正面与预期放缓并存的信号。考虑到该数据属于公司例行月度交付更新、同日还有二季度业绩发布,且无法用本轮可用行情工具确认执行价和price-in,风险收益不足,结论是不做。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-01 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-09-01 12:26 HK首发HKEX一手源原文 ↗
    港交所披露易发布蔚来2026年8月交付更新,属于上市公司一手法定披露。
  2. 2026-09-01 10:25 HK市场反应Yahoo Finance非一手原文 ↗
    披露前港股上午交易中蔚来-SW报32.700港元,较前收跌1.45%;该节点早于午间公告,只能说明公告前弱势,不能证明公告已price-in。
    市场反应:上午交易价格32.700港元,较前收33.180港元下跌1.45%。

关键理由

  • 交付量维持在3.6万辆附近,证明蔚来、乐道、萤火虫三品牌仍有销量支撑。
  • 8月较7月35,934辆环比约-0.3%,且同比增速从7月71.0%降至14.5%,边际惊喜不足。
  • 月度交付更新对收入有方向性支持,但缺少ASP、毛利率和盈利改善信息,难以单独支撑强交易。

主要风险

  • 同日二季度业绩发布和电话会可能重定价毛利率、现金流与指引,单月交付数据容易被覆盖。
  • 未能取得 stock_tools 实时报价、市值和20日走势,无法判断午间披露前是否已price-in或是否仍可按合理价格成交。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-01 · 影响 weakens
    7月交付35,934辆、同比增71.0%,8月35,836辆同比仅增14.5%,削弱做多的预期差。
    检索:蔚来 2026年8月交付 7月交付 环比 同比 增速 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-08-20 · 影响 weakens
    公司已公告同日将发布2026年二季度业绩并召开电话会,财报信息可能主导交付更新后的交易方向。
    检索:NIO Q2 2026 results September 1 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例证据不足,降低置信度并支持不做,而不是用名义同比增长追多。

方向:没有取得足够同市场、同机制、同相位的已量化先例,不能用先例支持开仓。

涨幅量级:月度交付更新通常需要结合预期差和后续财报指引判断,本轮未取得可用于设定tp/sl的高相似先例。

形态:未能确认是否存在稳定的交付公告后短线胜率或见光死模式。

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原文全文

展开原文 · 9,504 字
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited take no responsibility
for the contents of this announcement, make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and expressly
disclaim any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the
contents of this announcement.
Under our weighted voting rights structure, our share capital comprises Class A ordinary shares and Class C ordinary
shares. Each Class A ordinary share entitles the holder to exercise one vote, and each Class C ordinary share entitles
the holder to exercise eight votes, respectively, on any resolution tabled at our general meetings, except as may
otherwise be required by law or by the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on The Stock Exchange of Hong
Kong Limited or provided for in our memorandum and articles of association. Shareholders and prospective investors
should be aware of the potential risks of investing in a company with a weighted voting rights structure. Our American
depositary shares, each representing one of our Class A ordinary shares, are listed on the New York Stock Exchange in
the United States under the symbol NIO.

NIO Inc.

(A company controlled through weighted voting rights and
incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability)

(Stock Code: 9866)

VOLUNTARY ANNOUNCEMENT
AUGUST 2026 DELIVERY UPDATE
•
•
•

35,836 vehicles were delivered in August 2026, increasing by 14.5% year-over-year
262,893 vehicles were delivered year-to-date in 2026, increasing by 57.9% year-over-year
Cumulative deliveries reached 1,260,485 as of August 31, 2026

On September 1, 2026 - NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) (“ NIO ” or the
“Company”), a pioneer and a leading company in the global smart electric vehicle market, today
announced its August 2026 delivery results.
The Company delivered 35,836 vehicles in August 2026, representing an increase of 14.5%
year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 21,174 vehicles from NIO brand, 8,810 vehicles from
ONVO brand, and 5,852 vehicles from FIREFLY brand. Cumulative deliveries reached 1,260,485
as of August 31, 2026.
On August 7, 2026, NIO inaugurated its 4,000th total and first fifth-generation battery swap
station, marking the official integration of the FIREFLY brand into NIO Power’s battery swap
network. The fifth-generation station offers significantly enhanced compatibility across all models
under the NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY brands, while NIO’s expanding charging and battery swap
network continues to generate scale effects and support vehicle sales growth.
On August 21, 2026, the NIO All-New ES8 reached 140,000 cumulative deliveries, just 335 days
after deliveries began. From January to July 2026, the NIO ES8 ranked No. 1 in cumulative sales
in both the large SUV segment and the segment priced above RMB400,000 in China. With its
compelling all-scenario product experience, the NIO ES8 continues to strengthen NIO’s leadership
in the premium BEV SUV market.

1

About NIO Inc.
NIO Inc. is a pioneer and a leading company in the global smart electric vehicle market. Founded
in November 2014, NIO aspires to shape a sustainable and brighter future with the mission of
“Blue Sky Coming”. NIO envisions itself as a user enterprise where innovative technology meets
experience excellence. NIO designs, develops, manufactures and sells smart electric vehicles,
driving innovations in next-generation core technologies. NIO distinguishes itself through
continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations, exceptional products and services, and a
community for shared growth. NIO provides premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand,
premium smart electric vehicles for families through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end
electric cars with the FIREFLY brand.
For more information, please visit: http://ir.nio.com.
By order of the Board
NIO Inc.
Bin Li
Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Hong Kong, September 1, 2026

2

This announcement contains statements that may constitute “forward-looking ” statements pursuant
to the “safe harbor ” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will, ” “expects, ”
“anticipates, ” “aims, ” “future, ” “intends, ” “plans, ” “believes, ” “estimates, ” “likely to ” and similar
statements. NIO may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports
to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC ”), in its annual report to shareholders,
in announcements, circulars or other publications made on the websites of each of The Stock
Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (the “SEHK ”) and the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading
Limited (the “SGX-ST ”), in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made
by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts,
including statements about NIO ’s beliefs, plans and expectations, are forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could
cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement,
including but not limited to the following: NIO ’s strategies; NIO ’s future business development,
financial condition and results of operations; NIO ’s ability to develop and manufacture vehicles
of sufficient quality and appeal to customers on schedule and on a large scale; its ability to ensure
and expand manufacturing capacities including establishing and maintaining partnerships with
third parties; its ability to provide convenient and comprehensive power solutions to its customers;
the viability, growth potential and prospects of the battery swapping, BaaS, and NIO Assisted and
Intelligent Driving and its subscription services; its ability to improve the technologies or develop
alternative technologies in meeting evolving market demand and industry development; NIO ’s
ability to satisfy the mandated safety standards relating to motor vehicles; its ability to secure
supply of raw materials or other components used in its vehicles; its ability to secure sufficient
reservations and sales of its vehicles; its ability to control costs associated with its operations; its
ability to build its current and future brands; general economic and business conditions globally
and in China and assumptions underlying or related to any of the foregoing. Further information
regarding these and other risks is included in NIO ’s filings with the SEC and the announcements
and filings on the websites of each of the SEHK and SGX-ST. All information provided in this
announcement is as of the date of this announcement, and NIO does not undertake any obligation
to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.
As of the date of this announcement, the board of directors of the Company comprises Mr. Bin Li
as the chairman, Mr. Lihong Qin as the director, Mr. Eddy Georges Skaf and Mr. Nicholas Paul
Collins as the non-executive directors, and Mr. Hai Wu, Mr. Denny Ting Bun Lee, Ms. Yu Long
and Mr. Yonggang Wen as the independent directors.

3

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性
或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴
該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。
根據不同投票權架構,我們的股本包括A類普通股及C類普通股。對於提呈我們股東大會的任
何決議案,A類普通股持有人每股可投一票,而C類普通股持有人則每股可投八票,惟法律或
《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》或我們的組織章程大綱及細則另行規定者除外。股東
及有意投資者務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股(每股美國存
託股代表一股A類普通股)於美國紐約證券交易所上市,股份代號為NIO。

蔚來集團

(於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司)

(股份代號:9866)

自願公告
2026年8月交付更新資料
•
•
•

本公司於2026年8月交付35,836輛汽車,同比增長14.5%
本公司於2026年至今交付262,893輛汽車,同比增長57.9%
截至2026年8月31日,本公司累計汽車交付量達1,260,485輛

於2026 年9 月1 日 - 全球智能電動汽車市場的先驅及領跑者蔚來集團(紐交所:
NIO;港交所:9866;新交所:NIO)
(「蔚來」或「本公司」)今天宣佈其於2026年8
月的交付結果。
本公司於2026年8月交付35,836輛汽車,同比增長14.5%。有關交付包括本公司旗
下蔚來品牌的汽車21,174 輛,本公司旗下樂道品牌的汽車8,810 輛,以及本公司
旗下螢火蟲品牌的汽車5,852輛。截至2026年8月31日,本公司累計汽車交付量達
1,260,485輛。
2026年8月7日,蔚來第4,000座換電站暨首座第五代換電站落成,螢火蟲正式接
入蔚來能源換電體系。蔚來第五代換電站兼容性大幅提升,實現蔚來、樂道及螢
火蟲三品牌全車型兼容,持續建設的充換電網絡進一步形成規模化網絡效應,成
為推動產品銷量增長的重要支撐。
2026年8月21日,蔚來全新ES8自開啟交付以來歷時335 天,已累計完成140,000
台新車交付。2026年1-7月,ES8在大型SUV市場和40萬元級車型市場的累計銷量
均位列第一。憑藉出色的全場景產品體驗,蔚來ES8持續鞏固蔚來在高端純電動
SUV市場的領先地位。
1

關於蔚來集團
蔚來集團是全球智能電動汽車市場的先驅及領跑者。成立於2014 年11 月,蔚來
致力於共創可持續和更美好的未來,實現「Blue Sky Coming」的使命。蔚來的願
景是成為技術與體驗領先的用戶企業。蔚來設計、開發、製造及銷售智能電動汽
車,推動新一代核心技術的創新。蔚來通過持續的技術突破及創新、極致的產品
及服務,和共同成長的社區使自己脫穎而出。公司旗下的蔚來品牌專注於高端智
能電動汽車,樂道品牌聚焦於高品質家庭智能電動汽車,螢火蟲品牌提供智能電
動高端小車。
有關更多資料,請訪問:http://ir.nio.com 。
承董事會命
蔚來集團
創始人、董事長兼首席執行官
李斌
香港,2026年9月1日

2

本公告包含根據1995年《美國私人證券訴訟改革法》的「安全港」條文可能構成「前
瞻性」聲明的陳述。該等前瞻性陳述可透過「將會」、「預期」、「預計」、「旨在」、
「未來」、「擬」、「計劃」、「相信」、「估計」、「可能」等詞彙以及類似的陳述來識
別。蔚來亦可能在其提交給美國證券交易委員會(「證監會」)的定期報告、致股東
的年度報告、在香港聯合交易所有限公司(「香港聯交所」)及新加坡交易所證券交
易有限公司(「新交所」)的網站上發佈的公告、通函或其他出版物以及在其高級
管理人員、董事及僱員向第三方發表的新聞稿及其他書面材料或口頭聲明中作出
書面或口頭前瞻性陳述。不屬歷史事實的陳述(包括關於蔚來的信念、計劃及預
期的陳述)均屬前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及固有風險及不確定性。多種因素可
能導致實際業績與任何前瞻性陳述所載業績存在重大差異,包括但不限於以下因
素:蔚來的策略;蔚來未來業務發展、財務狀況及經營業績;蔚來按期、大規模
地開發及製造足夠質量且對客戶具有吸引力的汽車的能力;其確保及擴大製造產
能的能力,包括與第三方建立及維持合作夥伴關係;其為客戶提供便捷及全面的
能源解決方案的能力;換電、BaaS及蔚來智能駕駛及其訂閱服務的可行性、增長
潛力及前景;其改良技術或開發替代技術以滿足不斷變化的市場需求及產業發展
的能力;蔚來滿足有關汽車的強制性安全標準的能力;其維持汽車所用原材料或
其他部件供應的能力;其維持足夠的車輛預訂和銷售的能力;其控制與其經營相
關的成本的能力;其打造現今及未來品牌的能力;全球及中國整體經濟及業務狀
況以及與上述任何一項相關或有關的假設。有關該等及其他風險的進一步資料包
括在蔚來向證監會提交的文件中以及於香港聯交所及新交所各自網站上的公告及
文件中。本公告中提供的所有資料均為截至本公告日期的資料,而除適用法律要
求外,蔚來並不負有更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。
於本公告日期,本公司董事會包括董事長為李斌先生,董事為秦力洪先生,非執
行董事為Eddy Georges Skaf先生及Nicholas Paul Collins先生,獨立董事為吳海先
生、李廷斌先生、龍宇女士及文勇剛先生。

3

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