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🏢 官网IRAADoubao · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:12:00(美东 10-15 16:12)·⟳ 抓取 04:17:05回填·⚡ 决策 10-16 04:20:33·11.9 天前

美国铝业2026年三季度盈利同比大增但环比走弱,盘后冲高回落,数据中心资产出售与South32交易获批构成额外看点

这份财报同时包含同比利润大增、强劲自由现金流、数据中心资产变现期权,以及环比EBITDA下滑、特殊项目收益、四季度约6000万美元铝部门压力和并购融资后利息上升;盘后已先冲高至42.50美元再回落至40.92美元,说明市场对信息定价分歧较大。缺少可靠一致预期 beat 幅度,且最近两次Alcoa盘后财报次日均明显下跌,逆势做多的胜率和赔率不足。

📄 原文AA↗ 原文
Alcoa Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
Third Quarter 2026 Results Production: Alumina production increased 11 percent sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons…
不做 Alcoa Corporation(AA.US)
财报方向混合且未确认相对一致预期的重大beat;盘后已从高点明显回落,四季度铝部门约6000万美元压力和并购杠杆抑制追多赔率,但强劲现金流与资产出售又不满足强做空条件。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Alcoa三季度同比盈利显著改善,但核心调整后EBITDA环比下降1.12亿美元,四季度铝部门成本与检修压力明确,South32获批则多为预期内流程进展。盘后冲高回落叠加历史财报后偏弱表现,本次不追多,也未达到强做空催化标准。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-15 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-10-15 16:15 EDT首发Alcoa IR / 公司官网一手源原文 ↗
    公司在业绩电话会17:00 EDT前于IR网站发布三季度完整业绩和演示材料时间安排。
    市场反应:AA常规交易收于40.42美元、涨0.85%;盘后最高42.50美元,随后在16:17 EDT回落至40.92美元、较常规收盘涨约1.24%。
  2. 2026-10-15官方确认/否认South32官网一手源原文 ↗
    South32确认股东在2026年年度股东大会批准向Alcoa出售铝价值链资产,为财报中AliGroup进展提供独立官方印证。

关键理由

  • 正面因素包括净利润4.83亿美元、自由现金流4.72亿美元、氧化铝产量环比恢复以及Massena East数据中心用地的潜在现金回收。
  • 负面因素是调整后EPS较二季度2.12美元降至1.82美元、调整后EBITDA环比减少1.12亿美元,且四季度铝部门面临约6000万美元环比压力。

主要风险

  • 若电话会强调四季度产量提升、氧化铝价格强势或数据中心交易上行款项,卖盘可能被逆转并推动次日补涨。
  • 若市场聚焦31亿美元AliGroup收购带来的杠杆、全年利息开支升至约1.85亿美元及整合不确定性,股价可能在常规交易中转跌。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-15 · 影响 weakens
    调整后EBITDA环比从9.01亿美元降至7.89亿美元;公司预计四季度铝部门原材料和计划检修各有约3000万美元不利影响,全年利息开支因发债上修至约1.85亿美元。
    检索:Alcoa Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA sequential decline Q4 aluminum segment raw material maintenance $30 million interest expense AliGroup 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-15 · 影响 weakens
    公司三季度自由现金流4.72亿美元、氧化铝产量环比增加11%、铝产量环比增加2%,并有Massena East数据中心用地变现和South32交易获批,削弱强做空逻辑。
    检索:Alcoa Q3 2026 free cash flow production restart alumina prices Massena East data center proceeds South32 approval 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-17 · 影响 weakens
    最近一次二季度财报中收入低于预期且氧化铝指引被下修,AA次日下跌约6.1%;这提示商品周期股财报若无清晰超预期,盘后追涨风险较高。
    检索:Alcoa Q2 2026 earnings revenue miss alumina guidance cut July 16 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不支持在盘后已有上涨且财报/指引混合时用小仓追多;同时本次没有正式大幅下修或核心逻辑证伪,也不支持反向做空,最终选择AVOID。

方向:4个同公司盘后财报对齐样本中仅1个在次日上涨,1日/3日/5日胜率均为25%;中位数1日-3.8%、3日-5.0%、5日-3.7%。

涨幅量级:只有2025年三季度在股价前期大幅下跌且财报形成明显正向惊喜时上涨12.6%;2026年两次不及或仅符合预期的财报分别在次日下跌约6.8%和6.1%。样本仅4条,不能机械外推跌幅。

形态:最近两次Alcoa季度财报均出现显著负向反应;本次盘后冲高至42.50美元后回落至40.92美元,也呈现即时获利回吐特征,但尚未到常规交易验证。

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 8/10 AA 2025-10-22 2025年三季度盘后业绩后,AA次日上涨12.59%,之后第5日累计涨幅收窄至9.14%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +12.6% · +2日 +10.6% · +3日 +11.9% · +4日 +10.3% · +5日 +9.1%
    相似度依据:同一公司、同一美股盘后三季度财报相位,主营铝/氧化铝价格与生产成本驱动相同。
    经验:强劲的三季度财报在股价前期明显下跌后可触发约12.6%的次日大幅重估,但5日内回吐部分涨幅。
  • 相似度 8/10 AA 2026-04-16 2026年一季度业绩后,Reuters/Investing报道EPS和收入低于预测,AA次日下跌6.80%,第5日下跌7.16%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -6.8% · +2日 -5.5% · +3日 -4.6% · +4日 -2.7% · +5日 -7.2%
    相似度依据:同一公司、盘后季度业绩,且后续报道确认收入和EPS低于预期,与本次需核验预期差高度相关。
    经验:低于预期时,AA财报后次日可下跌约6.8%,且负向反应通常不是单日噪声。
  • 相似度 8/10 AA 2026-07-16 2026年二季度调整后EPS 2.12美元、大致符合约2.12美元预期,但收入约39.66亿美元低于约40.2亿美元预期,次日下跌6.13%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -6.1% · +2日 -7.2% · +3日 -5.3% · +4日 -1.4% · +5日 -3.4%
    相似度依据:同一公司、最近一次盘后季度业绩;调整后EPS大致符合预期但收入和指引未形成上修,和本次“数字尚可但展望偏混合”相似。
    经验:仅仅符合盈利预期不足以支撑股价,若收入不及预期或指引偏保守,财报后仍可能连续下跌。
  • 相似度 7/10 AA 2026-01-22 2025年四季度及全年业绩后,AA次日下跌1.47%,第3日下跌5.51%,第5日下跌3.96%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -1.5% · +2日 -7.3% · +3日 -5.5% · +4日 -5.0% · +5日 -4.0%
    相似度依据:同一公司盘后业绩,但为四季度/全年业绩,包含年度展望而非单季三季度。
    经验:若无明确正向预期差,盘后财报后次日可能小幅下跌,并在随后数日扩大亏损。
工具执行结果 · 成功 10 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
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  2. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,313 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Alcoa Q3 2026 earnings results analyst consensus EPS estimate beat miss;API SearchType:web)
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  5. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,176 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:AA Alcoa Q3 2026 earnings reaction shares data center Massena East South32 approval;API SearchType:web)
  6. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 21 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「AA.US」—— 与这些标的相关、事件类型=财报/业绩预告的自家决策案例(本页 7 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 39 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ AA.US:相关历史决策 39 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 1 条(2.6%) · 已结算 1 笔 · 胜率 0% · 中位 -4.20% · 均值 -4.20% ⚠️只有 1 笔,样本太薄,只能当线索不能当规律\n↑ 胜率/收益口径:ENTER 当日之后 T+1 开盘入场、次日开盘出场,做空腿已按方向取反(所以正数=这个方向做对了)。统计的只有★那只票自己的腿
  7. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,417 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Reuters October 15 2026 Alcoa quarterly profit estimates $1.82 Massena data center;API SearchType:web)
  8. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,384 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Alcoa AA Q3 2026 earnings beat consensus adjusted EBITDA 789 million forecast;API SearchType:web)
  9. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 992 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:site:zacks.com Alcoa AA Q3 2026 earnings October 2026;API SearchType:web)
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    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 42,450 字
Third Quarter 2026 Results
Production:
Alumina production increased 11 percent sequentially to 2.5 million metric tons primarily due to improved stability at the Pinjarra, Australia refinery.
In the Aluminum segment, production increased 2 percent sequentially to 649,000 metric tons primarily due to capacity restarts completed in the second quarter 2026 and the completion of the Alumar smelter restart in the third quarter 2026.
Shipments:
In the Alumina segment, third-party shipments of alumina increased 2 percent sequentially primarily due to higher production. In Aluminum, total shipments decreased 5 percent sequentially following elevated second quarter 2026 shipment volumes associated with first quarter inventory repositioning.
Revenue:
The Company generated third-party revenue of $3.7 billion, a 7 percent sequential decrease. Alumina segment third-party revenue increased 7 percent, supported by higher average realized alumina prices and shipments. Aluminum segment third-party revenue reflected lower shipments and average realized prices, resulting in a 9 percent sequential decrease.
Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation
was $483 million, or $1.81 per share. Sequentially, the results reflect favorable mark-to-market changes on the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) shares and energy contracts, improved production costs, and higher alumina prices, partially offset by lower aluminum prices and shipments.
Adjusted net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation
was $485 million, or $1.82 per share, excluding the impact from net special items of $2 million. Notable special items include mark-to-market gains on energy contracts of $32 million, a mark-to-market gain on the Ma’aden shares of $28 million, demolition and remediation costs at closed locations of $25 million, and external costs related to the AliGroup acquisition of $14 million.
Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items
was $789 million, as improved production costs in both the Aluminum and Alumina segments and higher alumina prices were more than offset by lower aluminum prices and shipments, resulting in a sequential decrease of $112 million.
Cash:
Cash provided from operations was $643 million. Cash provided from financing activities was $2.6 billion, reflecting financing obtained for the AliGroup acquisition. Cash used for investing activities was $183 million, including capital expenditures of $171 million. Free cash flow was $472 million. Alcoa ended the quarter with a cash balance of $4.4 billion.
Working capital:
For the third quarter, Receivables from customers of $1.3 billion, Inventories of $2.6 billion and Accounts payable, trade of $1.9 billion comprised DWC working capital. Alcoa reported 50 days working capital, reflecting a sequential increase of 4 days primarily on an increase in inventory days due to higher aluminum volumes. Days working capital was consistent with the third quarter 2025.
Key Actions
AliGroup acquisition:
During the third quarter 2026, Alcoa continued to advance the AliGroup acquisition, progressing regulatory approvals as well as transition and integration planning. On October 15, 2026, South32 shareholders approved the acquisition. The transaction remains on track to close in the first half of 2027.
On September 23, 2026, Alcoa
completed
offerings of $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.625 percent senior notes due 2034 and $1.1 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.875 percent senior notes due 2036 (the Notes). The Company intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand, to fund the cash consideration of approximately $3.1 billion for the AliGroup acquisition as well as related fees and expenses. Upon completion of the debt offerings, the Company terminated the remaining outstanding commitments for bridge financing.
Massena East agreement:
During the third quarter 2026, Alcoa entered into definitive agreements to sell portions of the Massena East site. The transaction creates the potential for meaningful cash proceeds as approved data center capacity is developed by the buyer. Closing is expected within the next six months. At closing, Alcoa expects to receive approximately $50 million to $65 million, depending on the amount of approved data center capacity. Alcoa may receive an additional approximately $60 million to $250 million for approved capacity expansions and capacity-based installment payments as approved capacity is commissioned during the seven-year period following closing, with most of the proceeds expected to be received during the first five years. Closing is subject to permitting and regulatory approvals, satisfaction of the conditions required to begin construction, and other customary closing conditions.
2026 Outlook
The Company does not provide reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.
Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Alumina segment production and shipment projection of 9.5 to 9.6 million metric tons and 11.5 to 11.6 million metric tons, respectively. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts.
Alcoa reaffirms its 2026 Aluminum segment production and shipment projection of 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons and 2.6 to 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.
For the fourth quarter 2026, the Company expects to maintain the strong operational performance delivered in the third quarter 2026. Higher production and shipments are expected in both segments, as improved refining system stability is maintained and the smelting portfolio continues to deliver incremental output.
Within the fourth quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects performance to be consistent sequentially.
Within the fourth quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects higher raw material costs and planned maintenance, intended to support continued operational stability, to result in unfavorable impacts of approximately $30 million sequentially. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by approximately $30 million sequentially.
Other income is expected to increase by approximately $20 million in the fourth quarter 2026 due to higher interest earned on cash held for the AliGroup acquisition.
Alcoa expects Interest expense to approximate $185 million for the year, an increase from the prior projection, as a result of the Notes issuance.
Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects fourth quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $65 million to $75 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.
Conference Call
Alcoa will hold its quarterly conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) / 8:00 a.m. Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) on Thursday, October 15, 2026 / Friday, October 16, 2026, to present third quarter 2026 financial results and discuss the business, developments, and market conditions.
The call will be webcast via the Company’s homepage on
www.alcoa.com
. Presentation materials for the call will be available for viewing on the same website at approximately 4:15 p.m. EDT on October 15, 2026 / 7:15 a.m. AEDT on October 16, 2026. Call information and related details are available under the “Investors” section of
www.alcoa.com
.
Dissemination of Company Information
Alcoa intends to make future announcements regarding company developments and financial performance through its website,
www.alcoa.com
, as well as through press releases, filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, conference calls, media broadcasts, and webcasts. Alcoa does not incorporate the information contained on, or accessible through, its corporate website or such other websites or platforms referenced herein into this press release.
About Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa is a global industry leader in bauxite, alumina and aluminum products with a Vision to build a legacy of excellence for future generations. Since developing the process that made aluminum an affordable and vital part of modern life, our talented Alcoans have developed breakthrough innovations and best practices that have led to greater safety, efficiency, sustainability and stronger communities wherever we operate.
Discover more by visiting
www.alcoa.com
. Follow us on our social media channels:
Facebook
,
Instagram
,
X
,
YouTube
and
LinkedIn
.
Cautionary Statement on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as “aims,” “ambition,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “could,” “develop,” “endeavors,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “goal,” “intends,” “may,” “outlook,” “potential,” “plans,” “projects,” “reach,” “seeks,” “sees,” “should,” “strive,” “targets,” “will,” “working,” “would,” or other words of similar meaning. All statements by Alcoa that reflect expectations, assumptions or projections about the future, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, statements regarding Alcoa’s proposed transaction to acquire South32 Limited’s equity interests in certain bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (the proposed transaction referred to as the Transaction); the ability of the parties to complete the Transaction on the expected timeline or at all considering the closing conditions; the expected benefits of the Transaction, including the anticipated synergies and earnings per share and free cash flow accretion; the competitive ability and position following completion of the Transaction; forecasts concerning global demand growth for bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, and supply/demand balances; statements, projections or forecasts of future or targeted financial results, or operating performance (including our ability to execute on strategies related to environmental, social and governance matters); statements about strategies, outlook, and business and financial prospects (including related to production and shipments); and statements about capital allocation and return of capital. These statements reflect beliefs and assumptions that are based on Alcoa’s perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Although Alcoa believes that the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that these expectations will be attained and it is possible that actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements due to a variety of risks and uncertainties. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: (a) the non-satisfaction or non-waiver, on a timely basis or otherwise, of one or more closing conditions to the Transaction; (b) the prohibition or delay of the completion of the Transaction by a governmental entity; (c) the risk that the Transaction may not be completed in the expected time frame or at all; (d) unexpected costs, charges or expenses, including financing commitment fees, resulting from the Transaction; (e) uncertainty of the expected financial performance following completion of the Transaction; (f) uncertainty of any contingent payment required to be made in connection with the Transaction following completion; (g) failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the Transaction; (h) the occurrence of any event that could give rise to termination of the Transaction; (i) potential litigation in connection with the Transaction or other settlements or investigations that may affect the timing or occurrence of the Transaction or result in significant costs of defense, indemnification and liability; (j) the impact of global economic conditions on the aluminum industry and aluminum end-use markets; (k) volatility and declines in aluminum and alumina demand and pricing, including global, regional, and product-specific prices, or significant changes in production costs which are linked to the London Metal Exchange (LME) or other commodities; (l) the disruption of market-driven balancing of global aluminum supply and demand by non-market forces; (m) competitive and complex conditions in global markets; (n) our ability to obtain, maintain, or renew permits or approvals necessary for our mining operations; (o) rising energy costs and interruptions or uncertainty in energy supplies; (p) unfavorable changes in the cost, quality, or availability of raw materials or other key inputs, or by disruptions in the supply chain; (q) economic, political, and social conditions, including the impact of trade policies, tariffs, and adverse industry publicity; (r) legal proceedings, investigations, or changes in foreign and/or U.S. federal, state, or local laws, regulations, or policies; (s) changes in tax laws or exposure to additional tax liabilities; (t) climate change, climate change legislation or regulations, and efforts to reduce emissions and build operational resilience to extreme weather conditions; (u) disruptions in the global economy caused by ongoing regional conflicts and wars; (v) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, inflation and other economic factors in the countries in which we operate; (w) global competition within and beyond the aluminum industry; (x) our ability to achieve our strategies or expectations relating to environmental, social, and governance considerations; (y) claims, costs, and liabilities related to health, safety and environmental laws, regulations, and other requirements in the jurisdictions in which we operate; (z) liabilities resulting from impoundment structures, which could impact the environment or cause exposure to hazardous substances or other damage; (aa) dilution of the ownership position of Alcoa’s stockholders (including as a result of the Transaction), price volatility, and other impacts on the price of Alcoa common stock by the secondary listing of the Alcoa common stock on the Australian Securities Exchange; (bb) our ability to obtain or maintain adequate insurance coverage; (cc) our ability to execute on our strategy to reduce complexity and optimize our asset portfolio and to realize the anticipated benefits from announced plans, programs, initiatives relating to our portfolio, capital investments, and developing technologies; (dd) our ability to integrate and achieve intended results from joint ventures, other strategic alliances, and strategic business transactions; (ee) significant declines in the market value of our marketable securities; (ff) our ability to fund capital expenditures; (gg) deterioration in our credit profile or increases in interest rates; (hh) impacts on our current and future operations due to our indebtedness and our ability to reduce indebtedness; (ii) our ability to continue to return capital to our stockholders through the payment of cash dividends and/or the repurchase of our common stock; (jj) cyber attacks, security breaches, system failures, software or application vulnerabilities, or other cyber incidents; (kk) labor market conditions, union disputes and other employee relations issues; and (ll) the other risk factors discussed in Alcoa’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Alcoa’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, and other reports filed by Alcoa with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Certain illustrative pro forma information included in certain investor materials may differ materially from pro forma information included in SEC filings, including the Registration Statement (as defined below). Alcoa cautions readers not to place undue reliance upon any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. These risks, as well as other risks associated with the Transaction, are also more fully discussed in the Registration Statement referred to below. Alcoa disclaims any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Neither Alcoa nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any of these forward-looking statements.
No Offer or Solicitation
This press release is for informational purposes and is not intended to, and shall not, constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or a solicitation of any vote of approval, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.
Additional Information and Where to Find It
This press release relates to the Transaction. In connection with the Transaction, Alcoa filed a Registration Statement on Form S-4 on September 1, 2026 (including documents incorporated by reference therein, the Registration Statement), with the SEC. The Registration Statement was declared effective and the related final prospectus was filed on September 8, 2026. This communication is not a substitute for the Registration Statement or any other document that Alcoa may file with the SEC in connection with the Transaction. Before making any investment decision, investors are urged to read the Registration Statement and all relevant documents filed or to be filed with the SEC, as well as any amendments or supplements to those documents, when they become available, because they contain important information about Alcoa and the Transaction.
Investors are able to obtain a free copy of the Registration Statement, as well as other filings containing information about Alcoa, free of charge, at the SEC’s website (
www.sec.gov
). Copies of the Registration Statement and other documents filed by Alcoa with the SEC may be obtained, without charge, by contacting Alcoa.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This press release contains reference to certain financial measures that are not calculated and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). Alcoa believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures is useful to investors because such measures provide both additional information about the operating performance of Alcoa and insight on the ability of Alcoa to meet its financial obligations by adjusting the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure for the impact of, among others, “special items” as defined by the Company, non-cash items in nature, and/or nonoperating expense or income items. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to be a substitute for, and should not be considered in isolation from, the financial measures reported in accordance with GAAP. Certain definitions, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and additional details regarding management’s rationale for the use of the non-GAAP financial measures can be found in the schedules to this release.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Statement of Consolidated Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per-share amounts)
Quarter Ended
September 30,
2026
June 30,
2026
September 30,
2025
Sales
$
3,704
$
3,966
$
2,995
Cost of goods sold (exclusive of expenses below)
2,822
2,967
2,695
Selling, general administrative, and other expenses
97
101
78
Research and development expenses
8
11
11
Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization
176
173
160
Restructuring and other charges, net
18
(4
)
885
Interest expense
42
36
33
Other (income) expenses, net
(32
)
200
(1,034
)
Total costs and expenses
3,131
3,484
2,828
Income before income taxes
573
482
167
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes
91
73
(51
)
Net income
482
409
218
Less: Net (loss) income attributable to noncontrolling interest
(1
)
2
(14
)
NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO ALCOA CORPORATION
$
483
$
407
$
232
EARNINGS PER SHARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO ALCOA CORPORATION COMMON SHAREHOLDERS
(1)
:
Basic:
Net income
$
1.83
$
1.54
$
0.88
Average number of common shares
263,914,317
263,888,206
258,915,524
Diluted:
Net income
$
1.81
$
1.53
$
0.88
Average number of common shares
265,972,634
265,957,129
260,889,062
(1)
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, undistributed earnings of $3 were allocated to preferred stock under the two-class method required by GAAP.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Statement of Consolidated Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per-share amounts)
Nine Months Ended
September 30, 2026
September 30, 2025
Sales
$
10,863
$
9,382
Cost of goods sold (exclusive of expenses below)
8,301
7,785
Selling, general administrative, and other expenses
281
231
Research and development expenses
29
35
Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization
511
461
Restructuring and other charges, net
32
904
Interest expense
113
142
Other expenses (income), net
42
(1,172
)
Total costs and expenses
9,309
8,386
Income before income taxes
1,554
996
Provision for income taxes
246
79
Net income
1,308
917
Less: Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interest
(7
)
(27
)
NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO ALCOA CORPORATION
$
1,315
$
944
EARNINGS PER SHARE ATTRIBUTABLE TO ALCOA CORPORATION COMMON SHAREHOLDERS
(1)
:
Basic:
Net income
$
4.98
$
3.59
Average number of common shares
263,818,483
258,855,144
Diluted:
Net income
$
4.95
$
3.57
Average number of common shares
265,835,371
260,474,658
(1)
For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, dividends paid on preferred stock were $1 and undistributed earnings of $13 were allocated to preferred stock under the two-class method required by GAAP.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Consolidated Balance Sheet (unaudited)
(in millions)
September 30, 2026
December 31, 2025
ASSETS
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
4,408
$
1,597
Receivables from customers
1,349
1,064
Other receivables
174
204
Inventories
2,570
2,177
Fair value of derivative instruments
273
49
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
(1)
395
378
Total current assets
9,169
5,469
Properties, plants, and equipment
21,428
20,537
Less: accumulated depreciation, depletion, and amortization
14,431
13,837
Properties, plants, and equipment, net
6,997
6,700
Investments
535
477
Noncurrent marketable securities
1,389
1,397
Deferred income taxes
676
687
Fair value of derivative instruments
86
34
Other noncurrent assets
(2)
1,510
1,365
Total assets
$
20,362
$
16,129
LIABILITIES
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable, trade
$
1,904
$
1,938
Accrued compensation and retirement costs
377
383
Taxes, including income taxes
379
294
Fair value of derivative instruments
514
467
Other current liabilities
799
718
Long-term debt due within one year
1
1
Total current liabilities
3,974
3,801
Long-term debt, less amount due within one year
4,821
2,438
Accrued pension benefits
234
257
Accrued other postretirement benefits
404
427
Asset retirement obligations
1,060
1,120
Environmental remediation
209
206
Fair value of derivative instruments
781
1,134
Noncurrent income taxes
61
65
Other noncurrent liabilities and deferred credits
573
487
Total liabilities
12,117
9,935
MEZZANINE EQUITY
Noncontrolling interest
—
76
EQUITY
Common stock
3
3
Additional capital
11,673
11,575
Retained earnings (deficit)
964
(271
)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
(4,395
)
(5,189
)
Total equity
8,245
6,118
Total liabilities, mezzanine equity, and equity
$
20,362
$
16,129
(1)
This line item includes $60 and $25 of current restricted cash at September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively.
(2)
This line item includes $70 and $70 of noncurrent restricted cash at September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Statement of Consolidated Cash Flows (unaudited)
(in millions)
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2026
2025
CASH FROM OPERATIONS
Net income
$
1,308
$
917
Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash from operations:
Depreciation, depletion, and amortization
511
461
Deferred income taxes
(16
)
(205
)
Equity loss, net of dividends
17
1
Restructuring and other charges, net
32
904
Net loss (gain) from investing activities – asset and investment sales
11
(785
)
Mark-to-market loss (gain) on noncurrent marketable securities
7
(267
)
Net periodic pension benefit cost
19
14
Stock-based compensation
43
33
Loss (gain) on mark-to-market derivative financial contracts
42
(48
)
Other
47
65
Changes in assets and liabilities, excluding effects of divestitures and foreign currency translation adjustments:
(Increase) decrease in receivables
(223
)
101
Increase in inventories
(349
)
(61
)
Decrease in prepaid expenses and other current assets
49
127
Decrease in accounts payable, trade
(61
)
(260
)
Decrease in accrued expenses
(32
)
(237
)
Increase in taxes, including income taxes
86
86
Pension contributions
(9
)
(16
)
Increase in noncurrent assets
(196
)
(91
)
Decrease in noncurrent liabilities
(214
)
(91
)
CASH PROVIDED FROM OPERATIONS
1,072
648
FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Additions to debt
2,704
1,040
Payments on debt
(332
)
(1,069
)
Dividends paid on Alcoa preferred stock
—
(1
)
Dividends paid on Alcoa common stock
(80
)
(78
)
Payments related to tax withholding on stock-based compensation awards
(12
)
(5
)
Financial contributions for the divestiture of businesses
—
(6
)
Contributions from noncontrolling interest
—
27
Acquisition of noncontrolling interest
(28
)
—
Other
39
(3
)
CASH PROVIDED FROM (USED FOR) FINANCING ACTIVITIES
2,291
(95
)
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Capital expenditures
(476
)
(375
)
Proceeds from the sale of assets
8
3
Additions to investments
(71
)
(42
)
Sale of investments
2
161
Other
22
2
CASH USED FOR INVESTING ACTIVITIES
(515
)
(251
)
EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS AND RESTRICTED CASH
(2
)
38
Net change in cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash
2,846
340
Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of year
1,692
1,234
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS AND RESTRICTED CASH AT END OF PERIOD
$
4,538
$
1,574
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Segment Information (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except realized prices; dry metric tons in millions (mdmt); metric tons in thousands (kmt))
1Q25
2Q25
3Q25
4Q25
2025
1Q26
2Q26
3Q26
Alumina:
Bauxite production (mdmt)
9.5
9.3
9.3
9.4
37.5
9.1
8.3
9.3
Third-party bauxite shipments (mdmt)
3.0
2.9
1.7
2.4
10.0
2.1
1.5
1.5
Alumina production (kmt)
2,355
2,351
2,453
2,481
9,640
2,355
2,218
2,467
Third-party alumina shipments (kmt)
2,105
2,195
2,205
2,324
8,829
1,611
1,618
1,652
Intersegment alumina shipments (kmt)
1,093
1,089
1,112
1,177
4,471
1,186
1,142
1,314
Produced alumina shipments (kmt)
2,316
2,384
2,448
2,514
9,662
2,206
2,288
2,399
Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina
$
575
$
378
$
377
$
341
$
415
$
324
$
334
$
353
Adjusted operating cost per metric ton of produced alumina shipped
$
312
$
323
$
318
$
314
$
317
$
334
$
368
$
354
Third-party bauxite sales
$
243
$
208
$
113
$
173
$
737
$
124
$
85
$
85
Third-party alumina sales
1,220
843
841
806
3,710
533
552
595
Intersegment alumina sales
712
467
474
457
2,110
445
453
542
Adjusted operating costs
(1)
723
770
779
789
3,061
737
843
850
Other segment items
(2)
788
609
582
635
2,614
405
343
373
Segment Adjusted EBITDA
(3)
$
664
$
139
$
67
$
12
$
882
$
(40
)
$
(96
)
$
(1
)
Depreciation and amortization
$
76
$
80
$
88
$
86
$
330
$
86
$
96
$
99
Equity income (loss)
$
15
$
(9
)
$
—
$
—
$
6
$
—
$
—
$
—
Aluminum:
Aluminum production (kmt)
564
572
579
604
2,319
607
636
649
Total aluminum shipments (kmt)
609
634
612
667
2,522
613
726
693
Produced aluminum shipments (kmt)
567
581
576
625
2,349
580
680
636
Average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum
$
3,213
$
3,143
$
3,374
$
3,749
$
3,376
$
4,209
$
4,752
$
4,527
Adjusted operating cost per metric ton of produced aluminum shipped
$
2,775
$
2,718
$
2,441
$
2,478
$
2,600
$
2,468
$
2,481
$
2,584
Third-party sales
$
1,901
$
1,956
$
2,040
$
2,462
$
8,359
$
2,536
$
3,330
$
3,021
Intersegment sales
4
5
5
6
20
5
5
5
Adjusted operating costs
(1)
1,574
1,578
1,406
1,549
6,107
1,430
1,688
1,645
Other segment items
(2)
197
286
332
399
1,214
417
574
519
Segment Adjusted EBITDA
(3)
$
134
$
97
$
307
$
520
$
1,058
$
694
$
1,073
$
862
Depreciation and amortization
$
67
$
66
$
67
$
70
$
270
$
71
$
71
$
71
Equity (loss) income
$
(6
)
$
3
$
—
$
—
$
(3
)
$
—
$
—
$
—
Reconciliation of Total Segment Adjusted EBITDA to Consolidated net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation:
Total Segment Adjusted EBITDA
(3)
$
798
$
236
$
374
$
532
$
1,940
$
654
$
977
$
861
Unallocated amounts:
Transformation
(4)
(12
)
(21
)
(20
)
(27
)
(80
)
(27
)
(23
)
(32
)
Intersegment eliminations
103
135
(39
)
53
252
7
2
(2
)
Corporate expenses
(5)
(37
)
(45
)
(42
)
(26
)
(150
)
(39
)
(60
)
(53
)
Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization
(148
)
(153
)
(160
)
(162
)
(623
)
(162
)
(173
)
(176
)
Impairment of goodwill
—
—
—
(144
)
(144
)
—
—
—
Restructuring and other charges, net
(5
)
(14
)
(885
)
(14
)
(918
)
(18
)
4
(18
)
Interest expense
(53
)
(56
)
(33
)
(16
)
(158
)
(35
)
(36
)
(42
)
Other income (expenses), net
26
112
1,034
(115
)
1,057
126
(200
)
32
Other
(6)
(4
)
(33
)
(62
)
(13
)
(112
)
(7
)
(9
)
3
Consolidated income before income taxes
668
161
167
68
1,064
499
482
573
(Provision for) benefit from income taxes
(120
)
(10
)
51
134
55
(82
)
(73
)
(91
)
Net loss (income) attributable to noncontrolling interest
—
13
14
11
38
8
(2
)
1
Consolidated net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation
$
548
$
164
$
232
$
213
$
1,157
$
425
$
407
$
483
The difference between segment totals and consolidated amounts is in Corporate.
(1)
Adjusted operating costs include all production related costs for alumina or aluminum produced and shipped: raw materials consumed; conversion costs, such as labor, materials, and utilities; and plant administrative expenses.
(2)
Other segment items include costs associated with trading activity, the Alumina segment’s purchase of bauxite from offtake or other supply agreements, the Alumina segment’s commercial shipping services, and the Aluminum segment’s energy assets; other direct and non-production related charges, including tariff costs; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; and Research and development expenses.
(3)
Alcoa Corporation’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.
(4)
Transformation includes, among other items, the Adjusted EBITDA of previously closed operations.
(5)
Corporate expenses are composed of general administrative and other expenses of operating the corporate headquarters and other global administrative facilities, as well as research and development expenses of the corporate technical center.
(6)
Other includes certain items that are not included in the Adjusted EBITDA of the reportable segments.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Calculation of Financial Measures (unaudited)
(in millions, except per-share amounts)
Adjusted Income
Quarter ended
September 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
September 30, 2025
Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation
$
483
$
407
$
232
Special items:
Restructuring and other charges, net
18
(4
)
885
Other special items
(1)
(22
)
196
(975
)
Discrete and other tax items impacts
(2)
—
3
(5
)
Tax impact on special items
(3)
6
(40
)
(141
)
Noncontrolling interest impact
(3)
—
—
(2
)
Subtotal
2
155
(238
)
Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation – as adjusted
$
485
$
562
$
(6
)
Diluted EPS
(4)
:
Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation common shareholders
$
1.81
$
1.53
$
0.88
Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation common shareholders – as adjusted
$
1.82
$
2.12
$
(0.02
)
Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation – as adjusted and Diluted EPS – as adjusted are non-GAAP financial measures. Management believes these measures are meaningful to investors because management reviews the operating results of Alcoa Corporation excluding the impacts of restructuring and other charges, various tax items, and other special items (collectively, “special items”). There can be no assurances that additional special items will not occur in future periods. To compensate for this limitation, management believes it is appropriate to consider Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation and Diluted EPS determined under GAAP as well as Net income (loss) attributable to Alcoa Corporation – as adjusted and Diluted EPS – as adjusted.
(1)
Other special items include the following:
for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, a net favorable change in mark-to-market energy derivative instruments ($32); a favorable mark-to-market change on the shares of Ma'aden ($28); external costs related to portfolio actions ($18), primarily related to the AliGroup acquisition; an unfavorable change in foreign exchange derivative instruments ($7); net loss on asset sales ($7); and, a charge for bridge financing structuring fees ($6);
for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, an unfavorable mark-to-market change on the shares of Ma'aden ($123); a net unfavorable change in mark to-market energy ($45) and foreign exchange ($14) derivative instruments; external costs related to portfolio actions ($12), primarily related to the AliGroup acquisition; and, net charges for other special items ($2); and,
for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a gain on the sale of interest in the Ma'aden joint venture ($786), a favorable mark-to-market change on the shares of Ma'aden ($267), costs related to the closure of the Kwinana, Australia refinery ($39), a net unfavorable change in mark-to-market energy ($22) and foreign exchange ($12) derivative instruments, costs related to the restart process at the San Ciprián, Spain smelter ($4), external costs related to portfolio actions ($2), and a net benefit for other special items ($1).
(2)
Discrete and other tax items are generally unusual or infrequently occurring items, changes in law, items associated with uncertain tax positions, or the effect of measurement-period adjustments and include the following:
for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, a net charge for discrete tax items ($3); and,
for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a net benefit for discrete tax items ($5).
(3)
The tax impact on special items is based on the applicable statutory rates in the jurisdictions where the special items occurred. The noncontrolling interest impact on special items represents Alcoa’s partner’s share of certain special items.
(4)
In any period with a Net loss attributable to Alcoa Corporation (GAAP or as adjusted), the average number of common shares applicable to diluted earnings per share exclude certain share equivalents as their effect is anti-dilutive.
For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, undistributed earnings of $3 were allocated to preferred stock under the two-class method.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Calculation of Financial Measures (unaudited), continued
(in millions)
Adjusted EBITDA
Quarter ended
September 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
September 30, 2025
Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation
$
483
$
407
$
232
Add:
Net (loss) income attributable to noncontrolling interest
(1
)
2
(14
)
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes
91
73
(51
)
Other (income) expenses, net
(32
)
200
(1,034
)
Interest expense
42
36
33
Restructuring and other charges, net
18
(4
)
885
Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization
176
173
160
Adjusted EBITDA
777
887
211
Special items
(1)
12
14
59
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items
$
789
$
901
$
270
Alcoa Corporation’s definition of Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) is net margin plus an add-back for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Net margin is equivalent to Sales minus the following items: Cost of goods sold; Selling, general administrative, and other expenses; Research and development expenses; and Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes this measure is meaningful to investors because Adjusted EBITDA provides additional information with respect to Alcoa Corporation’s operating performance and the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations. The Adjusted EBITDA presented may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.
(1)
Special items include the following (see reconciliation of Adjusted Income above for additional information):
for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, external costs related to portfolio actions ($18), primarily related to the AliGroup acquisition, and charges for other special items ($1). Additionally, the mark-to-market contracts associated with the Portland, Australia smelter generated losses ($10) in Other (income) expenses, net which economically increase the cost of power recorded in Cost of goods sold and the mark-to-market foreign exchange contracts associated with the San Ciprián refinery and smelter generated gains ($3) in Other (income) expenses, net which economically offset a portion of foreign currency impacts recorded in Cost of goods sold. These non-GAAP reclasses present the total cost of power and net foreign currency impacts within Cost of goods sold.
for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, external costs related to portfolio actions ($12), primarily related to the AliGroup acquisition, total cost of power and net foreign currency impacts associated with the Portland smelter ($5) and San Ciprián refinery and smelter ($5), respectively, and charges for other special items ($2); and,
for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, costs related to the closure of the Kwinana refinery ($39), net cost of power and foreign currency impacts associated with the Portland smelter ($7) and San Ciprián refinery and smelter ($5), respectively, costs related to the restart process at the San Ciprián smelter ($4), external costs related to portfolio actions ($2), and charges for other special items ($2).
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Calculation of Financial Measures (unaudited), continued
(in millions)
Free Cash Flow
Quarter ended
September 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
September 30, 2025
Cash provided from operations
$
643
$
608
$
85
Capital expenditures
(171
)
(186
)
(151
)
Free cash flow
$
472
$
422
$
(66
)
Free cash flow is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes this measure is meaningful to investors because management reviews cash flows generated from operations after taking into consideration capital expenditures, which are necessary to maintain and expand Alcoa Corporation’s asset base and are expected to generate future cash flows from operations. It is important to note that Free cash flow does not represent the residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures since other non-discretionary expenditures, such as mandatory debt service requirements, are not deducted from the measure.
Net Debt and Adjusted Net Debt
September 30, 2026
December 31, 2025
Short-term borrowings
$
—
$
9
Long-term debt due within one year
1
1
Long-term debt, less amount due within one year
4,821
2,438
Total debt
4,822
2,448
Less: Cash and cash equivalents
4,408
1,597
Net debt
414
851
Plus: Net pension / OPEB liability
555
613
Adjusted net debt
$
969
$
1,464
Net debt is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes this measure is meaningful to investors because management assesses Alcoa Corporation’s leverage position after considering available cash that could be used to repay outstanding debt.
Adjusted net debt is also a non-GAAP financial measure. Management believes this measure is meaningful to investors because management also assesses Alcoa Corporation’s leverage position after considering available cash that could be used to repay outstanding debt and net pension/OPEB liability.
Alcoa Corporation and subsidiaries
Calculation of Financial Measures (unaudited), continued
(in millions)
DWC Working Capital and Days Working Capital
Quarter ended
September 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
September 30, 2025
Receivables from customers
$
1,349
$
1,538
$
1,045
Add: Inventories
2,570
2,340
2,191
Less: Accounts payable, trade
(1,904
)
(1,860
)
(1,618
)
DWC working capital
$
2,015
$
2,018
$
1,618
Sales
$
3,704
$
3,966
$
2,995
Number of days in the quarter
92
91
92
Days working capital
(1)
50
46
50
DWC working capital and Days working capital are non-GAAP financial measures. Management believes these measures are meaningful to investors because management uses its working capital position to assess Alcoa Corporation’s efficiency in liquidity management.
(1)
Days working capital is calculated as DWC working capital divided by the quotient of Sales and number of days in the quarter.
Investor Contact:
Jason Duty +1 724 316 4366
Jason.M.Duty@alcoa.com
Media Contact:
Sarah Ayer +1 412 965 7622
Sarah.Ayer@alcoa.com
Source: Alcoa

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