🏢 官网IRCRDOCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:05:00·⟳ 抓取 04:07:33·⚡ 决策 09-02 04:23:13 +15m40s·55.5 天前
Credo公布FY2027一季度业绩小幅超预期并给出高于市场的二季度收入指引
财报和指引均偏正面，但相对市场预期的增量有限；公司市值约400亿美元量级、近一个月已有大幅波动，且信号发生在美股盘后，缺少可靠盘后价格和高相似先例支撑，风险收益不足以立即给ENTER。
📄 原文CRDO↗ 原文
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Reports First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited) (In thousands, except pe…
不做 Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd（CRDO.US）
财报和指引方向偏正面，但预期差只有低个位数，市值和估值已反映高增长；盘后真实价格与电话会未核实，风险收益不足以追多。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Credo一季度收入4.790亿美元，高于约4.70亿至4.73亿美元市场预期，非GAAP EPS 1.20美元也仅小幅高于约1.16至1.17美元预期；二季度5.25亿至5.35亿美元收入指引高于约5.14亿美元预期，方向为利好。但股价在财报前常规盘中已下跌约6%，过去数月累计涨幅仍大，估值对应市值约400亿美元，当前新增业绩超预期幅度不足以覆盖盘后跳空和见光死风险，因此选择不追。
消息传播链
- 公司在美股收盘后发布FY2027 Q1财报和FY2027 Q2收入指引。市场反应:发布时美股常规交易已收盘，未取得可靠盘后成交反应。
- 财报日页面显示市场预期收入约4.733亿美元、EPS约1.17美元，用于衡量预期差。市场反应:盘中价格一度约212.62美元，较前收下跌约6%。
- 盘中延时报价显示CRDO约211.32美元，前收226.19美元，财报前已有明显下跌。市场反应:常规盘中约下跌6.57%。
关键理由
- FY2027 Q1收入4.790亿美元，相比约4.715亿至4.733亿美元一致预期仅高约1%至2%，不是大幅beat。
- FY2027 Q2收入指引中点5.30亿美元，相比约5.138亿美元市场预期高约3%，说明AI数据中心连接需求仍强。
- 以约400亿美元市值估算，季度收入新增超预期约600万至800万美元、下季度指引超预期约1600万美元，短线弹性依赖估值重估而非业绩绝对量级。
主要风险
- 公司此前估值和AI连接预期已很高，小幅beat可能不足以支撑盘后追高。
- 若电话会披露客户集中、毛利回落或订单节奏放缓，正面指引可能被削弱。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-01 · 影响 weakens
财报前市场已明确预期高速增长，Q1与Q2指引相对一致预期只是小幅正差。
检索:CRDO earnings preview expectations valuation recent price action September 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-01 · 影响 weakens
财报前常规盘已下跌约6%，说明市场在高预期与宏观/半导体波动中重新定价，盘后追单风险较高。
检索:CRDO stock price before earnings September 1 2026 down ahead of earnings 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-01 · 影响 weakens
FY2027 Q2非GAAP毛利率指引67%至69%大体稳定，但GAAP和非GAAP经营费用继续上升，限制利润弹性。
检索:Credo Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin operating expenses guidance 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足使本次从潜在LONG降为AVOID，等待盘后价格和电话会信息。
方向:未取得同市场、高相似、首发锚点干净的财报超预期先例，不能用历史幅度支撑追高。
涨幅量级:缺少event_study校准，不能给可靠tp/sl幅度。
形态:AI半导体高预期财报常见盘后波动较大，但本轮未能形成可量化样本。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 4,932 字
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
August 1,
2026
May 2,
2026
August 2,
2025
Revenue
$
479,003
$
437,003
$
223,074
Cost of revenue
169,923
138,936
72,706
Gross profit
309,080
298,067
150,368
Operating expenses:
Research and development
114,524
90,534
52,448
Selling, general and administrative
73,856
51,688
37,178
Total operating expenses
188,380
142,222
89,626
Operating income
120,700
155,845
60,742
Other income, net
8,140
12,136
3,946
Income before income taxes
128,840
167,981
64,688
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(585
)
(1,121
)
1,289
Net income
$
129,425
$
169,102
$
63,399
Net income per share:
Basic
$
0.70
$
0.92
$
0.37
Diluted
$
0.67
$
0.88
$
0.34
Weighted-average shares used in computing net income per share:
Basic
186,007
184,683
171,927
Diluted
194,378
192,681
184,577
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited)
(In thousands)
August 1, 2026
May 2, 2026
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
466,869
$
1,164,952
Short-term investments
297,389
278,334
Accounts receivable
288,798
233,377
Inventories
313,051
250,831
Other current assets
100,186
73,576
Total current assets
1,466,293
2,001,070
Property and equipment, net
114,462
101,605
Right-of-use assets
25,061
24,640
Goodwill
986,447
92,798
Intangible assets, net
378,817
29,262
Other non-current assets
41,647
46,244
Total assets
$
3,012,727
$
2,295,619
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
101,822
$
107,345
Accrued compensation and benefits
20,731
21,626
Other current liabilities
75,612
68,120
Total current liabilities
198,165
197,091
Non-current operating lease liabilities
20,737
20,617
Deferred tax liabilities
53,659
5,754
Other non-current liabilities
11,676
8,545
Total liabilities
284,237
232,007
Shareholders' equity:
Ordinary shares
9
9
Additional paid in capital
2,210,077
1,672,060
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(138
)
2,426
Retained earnings
518,542
389,117
Total shareholders' equity
2,728,490
2,063,612
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
$
3,012,727
$
2,295,619
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Reconciliations from GAAP to Non-GAAP (Unaudited)
(In thousands, except percentages and per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
August 1,
2026
May 2,
2026
August 2,
2025
GAAP gross profit
$
309,080
$
298,067
$
150,368
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
5,715
354
356
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
11,000
—
—
Total reconciling item:
16,715
354
356
Non-GAAP gross profit (A)
$
325,795
$
298,421
$
150,724
GAAP gross margin
64.5
%
68.2
%
67.4
%
Non-GAAP gross margin
68.0
%
68.3
%
67.6
%
Total GAAP operating expenses
$
188,380
$
142,222
$
89,626
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
(82,264
)
(49,344
)
(35,099
)
Acquisition and integration related costs
(10,362
)
(9,279
)
—
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
(600
)
(400
)
—
Impairment charges
—
(1,500
)
—
Total reconciling item:
(93,226
)
(60,523
)
(35,099
)
Total Non-GAAP operating expenses (B)
$
95,154
$
81,699
$
54,527
GAAP operating income
$
120,700
$
155,845
$
60,742
Non-GAAP operating income (A-B)
$
230,641
$
216,722
$
96,197
GAAP operating income margin
25.2
%
35.7
%
27.2
%
Non-GAAP operating income margin
48.2
%
49.6
%
43.1
%
GAAP net income
$
129,425
$
169,102
$
63,399
Reconciling items:
Share-based compensation
87,979
49,698
35,455
Acquisition and integration related costs
10,362
9,279
—
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
11,600
400
—
Impairment charges
—
1,500
—
Pre-tax total reconciling item
109,941
60,877
35,455
Other income tax effects and adjustments
(3,104
)
(3,299
)
(573
)
Non-GAAP net income
$
236,262
$
226,680
$
98,281
GAAP net income margin
27.0
%
38.7
%
28.4
%
Non-GAAP net income margin
49.3
%
51.9
%
44.1
%
GAAP weighted-average shares - basic
186,007
184,683
171,927
GAAP weighted-average shares - diluted
194,378
192,681
184,577
Non-GAAP adjustment
3,126
3,255
4,288
Non-GAAP weighted-average shares - diluted
197,505
195,936
188,866
GAAP diluted net income per share
$
0.67
$
0.88
$
0.34
Non-GAAP diluted net income per share
$
1.20
$
1.16
$
0.52
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Reconciliation of GAAP Forward-Looking Estimates to Non-GAAP Forward-Looking Estimates
(In millions, except percentages)
Outlook for Three Months
Ending October 31, 2026
Low
High
GAAP gross margin
62.9
%
64.9
%
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
1.3
%
1.3
%
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
2.8
%
2.8
%
Total reconciling item:
4.1
%
4.1
%
Non-GAAP gross margin
67.0
%
69.0
%
Total GAAP operating expenses
$
199.0
$
204.0
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
97.0
97.0
Acquisition and integration related costs
2.0
2.0
Total reconciling item:
99.0
99.0
Total Non-GAAP operating expenses
$
100.0
$
105.0
Investor Contact:
Dan O’Neil
IR@credosemi.com
Source: Credo
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
August 1,
2026
May 2,
2026
August 2,
2025
Revenue
$
479,003
$
437,003
$
223,074
Cost of revenue
169,923
138,936
72,706
Gross profit
309,080
298,067
150,368
Operating expenses:
Research and development
114,524
90,534
52,448
Selling, general and administrative
73,856
51,688
37,178
Total operating expenses
188,380
142,222
89,626
Operating income
120,700
155,845
60,742
Other income, net
8,140
12,136
3,946
Income before income taxes
128,840
167,981
64,688
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(585
)
(1,121
)
1,289
Net income
$
129,425
$
169,102
$
63,399
Net income per share:
Basic
$
0.70
$
0.92
$
0.37
Diluted
$
0.67
$
0.88
$
0.34
Weighted-average shares used in computing net income per share:
Basic
186,007
184,683
171,927
Diluted
194,378
192,681
184,577
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited)
(In thousands)
August 1, 2026
May 2, 2026
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
466,869
$
1,164,952
Short-term investments
297,389
278,334
Accounts receivable
288,798
233,377
Inventories
313,051
250,831
Other current assets
100,186
73,576
Total current assets
1,466,293
2,001,070
Property and equipment, net
114,462
101,605
Right-of-use assets
25,061
24,640
Goodwill
986,447
92,798
Intangible assets, net
378,817
29,262
Other non-current assets
41,647
46,244
Total assets
$
3,012,727
$
2,295,619
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
101,822
$
107,345
Accrued compensation and benefits
20,731
21,626
Other current liabilities
75,612
68,120
Total current liabilities
198,165
197,091
Non-current operating lease liabilities
20,737
20,617
Deferred tax liabilities
53,659
5,754
Other non-current liabilities
11,676
8,545
Total liabilities
284,237
232,007
Shareholders' equity:
Ordinary shares
9
9
Additional paid in capital
2,210,077
1,672,060
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(138
)
2,426
Retained earnings
518,542
389,117
Total shareholders' equity
2,728,490
2,063,612
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
$
3,012,727
$
2,295,619
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Reconciliations from GAAP to Non-GAAP (Unaudited)
(In thousands, except percentages and per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
August 1,
2026
May 2,
2026
August 2,
2025
GAAP gross profit
$
309,080
$
298,067
$
150,368
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
5,715
354
356
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
11,000
—
—
Total reconciling item:
16,715
354
356
Non-GAAP gross profit (A)
$
325,795
$
298,421
$
150,724
GAAP gross margin
64.5
%
68.2
%
67.4
%
Non-GAAP gross margin
68.0
%
68.3
%
67.6
%
Total GAAP operating expenses
$
188,380
$
142,222
$
89,626
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
(82,264
)
(49,344
)
(35,099
)
Acquisition and integration related costs
(10,362
)
(9,279
)
—
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
(600
)
(400
)
—
Impairment charges
—
(1,500
)
—
Total reconciling item:
(93,226
)
(60,523
)
(35,099
)
Total Non-GAAP operating expenses (B)
$
95,154
$
81,699
$
54,527
GAAP operating income
$
120,700
$
155,845
$
60,742
Non-GAAP operating income (A-B)
$
230,641
$
216,722
$
96,197
GAAP operating income margin
25.2
%
35.7
%
27.2
%
Non-GAAP operating income margin
48.2
%
49.6
%
43.1
%
GAAP net income
$
129,425
$
169,102
$
63,399
Reconciling items:
Share-based compensation
87,979
49,698
35,455
Acquisition and integration related costs
10,362
9,279
—
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
11,600
400
—
Impairment charges
—
1,500
—
Pre-tax total reconciling item
109,941
60,877
35,455
Other income tax effects and adjustments
(3,104
)
(3,299
)
(573
)
Non-GAAP net income
$
236,262
$
226,680
$
98,281
GAAP net income margin
27.0
%
38.7
%
28.4
%
Non-GAAP net income margin
49.3
%
51.9
%
44.1
%
GAAP weighted-average shares - basic
186,007
184,683
171,927
GAAP weighted-average shares - diluted
194,378
192,681
184,577
Non-GAAP adjustment
3,126
3,255
4,288
Non-GAAP weighted-average shares - diluted
197,505
195,936
188,866
GAAP diluted net income per share
$
0.67
$
0.88
$
0.34
Non-GAAP diluted net income per share
$
1.20
$
1.16
$
0.52
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Reconciliation of GAAP Forward-Looking Estimates to Non-GAAP Forward-Looking Estimates
(In millions, except percentages)
Outlook for Three Months
Ending October 31, 2026
Low
High
GAAP gross margin
62.9
%
64.9
%
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
1.3
%
1.3
%
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
2.8
%
2.8
%
Total reconciling item:
4.1
%
4.1
%
Non-GAAP gross margin
67.0
%
69.0
%
Total GAAP operating expenses
$
199.0
$
204.0
Reconciling item:
Share-based compensation
97.0
97.0
Acquisition and integration related costs
2.0
2.0
Total reconciling item:
99.0
99.0
Total Non-GAAP operating expenses
$
100.0
$
105.0
Investor Contact:
Dan O’Neil
IR@credosemi.com
Source: Credo
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