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🏢 官网IRCVNACodex · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▲ 赚 +5.25% · 已结算把握 6/10🔁 +2 同一事件
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:05:00待核·⟳ 抓取 04:06:33·⚡ 决策 07-30 04:12:26 +5m53s·89.7 天前

Carvana公布2026年二季度业绩,销量、收入、净利和调整后EBITDA创纪录并上调全年EBITDA展望

本次Q2收入73.76亿美元、零售销量19.73万辆、调整后EBITDA 7.69亿美元均创纪录,收入高于约69亿美元一致预期,增长和盈利质量同步超预期。

📄 原文CVNA↗ 原文
Carvana Announces Record Second Quarter 2026 Results
Record 197k retail units drive industry-leading 38% YoY growth Record Quarterly Q2 Net Income of $513 Million ; industr…
▲ 做多CarvanaCVNA.US🇺🇸小仓
▲ 赚 +5.25%入场 07-29 盘后首笔 @55.84 → 离场 07-30 常规开盘 @58.95
60.0070.0055.84做多 07-29离场 07-3007-0809-11
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑Q2业绩超预期且未明显抢跑
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +6%、仅下一个交易日,不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +5%(半仓)/+10%(清仓) · 止损 -6% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

分时走势

做多 CVNA.US Carvana

建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图

成交明细 · 纸面

做多 CVNA.US Carvana

收益状态+5.25% 已平仓
进场成交2026-07-29 · 盘后首笔 · 07-30 04:10 北京 · @55.84
离场成交2026-07-30 · 常规开盘 · @58.95
毛收益+5.57%
成本+0.32%
净收益+5.25%
计入收益+5.25%
建仓日2026-07-29 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟

收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 21:43

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-29 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-01官方确认Carvana IR一手源原文 ↗
    公司提前宣布将在2026-07-29美股收盘后发布二季度业绩,财报日期本身已被市场预期。
  2. 2026-07-29 16:06 ET首发Carvana IR一手源原文 ↗
    公司正式发布Q2结果,披露197,325辆零售销量、73.76亿美元收入、5.13亿美元净利润和7.69亿美元调整后EBITDA。
    市场反应:事件发生在美股收盘后,连续交易已结束。
  3. 2026-07-29市场反应MarketBeat非一手原文 ↗
    第三方页面显示披露前CVNA约66美元附近,完整财报后反应仍待次日开盘确认。
    市场反应:披露前当日小幅上涨。

关键理由

  • 本次Q2收入73.76亿美元、零售销量19.73万辆、调整后EBITDA 7.69亿美元均创纪录,收入高于约69亿美元一致预期,增长和盈利质量同步超预期。
  • 全年2026年调整后EBITDA指引升至27亿-30亿美元,相对2025年22.4亿美元增长约20%-34%,对约638.9亿美元市值仍有可量化估值影响。
  • 权威先例显示同市场同相位样本+3日胜率88%、中位+1.48%,同公司强财报先例弹性更高;当前20日基本持平、5日下跌2.58%,未见本次财报前明显抢跑。

主要风险

  • 财报日历已明牌,且先例中2024年Q2财报次日高开后5日转负,若开盘跳空过大容易高开低走。
  • CVNA高波动且估值依赖利润率持续改善,二手车价格、融资利率、库存周转或电话会细节若转弱会压缩估值倍数。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 影响 weakens
    未发现足以否定本次业绩超预期的反向数据,但EPS口径和电话会细节尚未完全落地。
    检索:Carvana Q2 2026 earnings estimates revenue EPS adjusted EBITDA guidance 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 authoritative_current_snapshot · 日期 2026-07-28 · 影响 supports
    权威快照显示CVNA近20日仅+0.27%、近5日-2.58%,7月14日单日+8.29%后未延续,不构成本次财报明显抢跑。
    检索:CVNA pre earnings price action July 2026 last 20d pct 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 authoritative_event_study · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
    2024年Q2同季先例+1日+9.98%但+5日-3.45%,提示强财报仍可能高开后兑现。
    检索:CVNA comparable earnings precedent high open fade risk 原文 ↗

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 10/10 CVNA 2024-05-01 Carvana Q1 2024净利、Adjusted EBITDA和EBITDA率创Q1纪录,并指引Q2零售销量增速和Adjusted EBITDA环比提升;event_study显示+1日+33.77%、+3日+41.20%、+5日+31 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +33.8% · +2日 +39.7% · +3日 +41.2% · +4日 +34.0% · +5日 +31.4%
    相似度依据:同一公司、同为业绩超预期叠加Adjusted EBITDA/全年或下季展望改善,是最贴近当前CVNA财报催化的先例。
  • 相似度 10/10 CVNA 2025-05-07 Carvana Q1 2025零售销量、收入创纪录,Adjusted EBITDA 4.88亿美元且指引Q2销量和Adjusted EBITDA再创新高;event_study显示+1日+10.17%、+3日+7.89%、+5日+17.88 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +10.2% · +2日 +3.5% · +3日 +7.9% · +4日 +13.1% · +5日 +17.9%
    相似度依据:同一公司、同为零售销量/收入/Adjusted EBITDA创纪录并给出更强下季展望,事件机制与当前高度一致。
  • 相似度 9/10 CVNA 2024-07-31 Carvana Q2 2024零售销量增长33%、Adjusted EBITDA达3.55亿美元并给出2024全年10-12亿美元Adjusted EBITDA展望;event_study显示+1日+9.98%、+3日+1.58%、+5日- 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +10.0% · +2日 +3.0% · +3日 +1.6% · +4日 +4.3% · +5日 -3.5%
    相似度依据:同一公司、同为Q2财报和全年Adjusted EBITDA展望,但当次全年指引区间可能已部分被前期反弹预期消化。
  • 相似度 7/10 CVNA 2023-07-19 Carvana Q2 2023 adjusted EBITDA/GPU创历史最佳并同步宣布债务重组,盈利拐点但收入和零售销量仍同比下滑;event_study显示+1日-16.25%、+3日-17.13%、+5日-21.59%,反应日开低收 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -16.2% · +2日 -18.2% · +3日 -17.1% · +4日 -20.9% · +5日 -21.6%
    相似度依据:同一公司且是Adjusted EBITDA/GPU盈利拐点,但混有债务重组且零售销量/收入未同步创新高,和当前高质量增长相位不同。
  • 相似度 7/10 AN 2021-07-19 AutoNation Q2 2021收入和EPS创历史纪录,同时追加10亿美元回购授权,受益汽车零售高景气;event_study显示+1日+7.36%、+3日+9.51%、+5日+8.66%,次日开高后继续收高。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +7.4% · +2日 +10.6% · +3日 +9.5% · +4日 +9.8% · +5日 +8.7%
    相似度依据:同为美国汽车零售商记录级季度业绩,但AutoNation是传统经销商且叠加回购授权,商业模型与CVNA不同。
  • 相似度 7/10 KMX 2021-06-25 CarMax FY2022 Q1净收入和盈利创纪录、全渠道二手车需求强劲,并重申长期收入/销量/份额目标;event_study显示+1日+1.26%、+3日+1.37%、+5日+5.04%,反应温和正向。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.3% · +2日 +2.5% · +3日 +1.4% · +4日 +2.5% · +5日 +5.0%
    相似度依据:同为美国二手车零售/全渠道平台的记录级财报,但缺少明确上调全年EBITDA指引。
  • 相似度 6/10 LAD 2021-07-21 Lithia & Driveway Q2 2021营收和EPS创公司二季度最高,收入+118%、EPS+218%;event_study显示+1日+1.14%、+3日+0.36%、+5日+1.06%,事件日高开低收后小幅走正。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.1% · +2日 +2.3% · +3日 +0.4% · +4日 +0.6% · +5日 +1.1%
    相似度依据:同为美国汽车零售高景气下记录级季度业绩,但公司为传统经销商整合逻辑,和CVNA线上二手车平台弹性不同。
  • 相似度 6/10 GPI 2021-04-29 Group 1 Automotive Q1 2021收入、净利和调整后EPS均创Q1纪录,体现汽车零售需求修复与费用纪律;event_study显示+1日-2.64%、+3日+0.65%、+5日+3.73%,次日开平后收低。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -2.6% · +2日 -0.9% · +3日 +0.7% · +4日 +1.0% · +5日 +3.7%
    相似度依据:同市场汽车零售记录级财报,但事件缺少明确全年指引上修且股价当日有高开回落迹象。
  • 相似度 5/10 2015 2023-08-08 Li Auto Q2 2023收入39.5亿美元、交付8.65万辆创高增长,并给出后续交付/收入展望;event_study显示+1日-5.52%、+3日-6.82%、+5日-10.48%,次日大幅低开后虽回升但仍为负。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -5.5% · +2日 -3.2% · +3日 -6.8% · +4日 -9.3% · +5日 -10.5%
    相似度依据:同为汽车消费链高增长财报和展望催化,但Li Auto是新能源车制造商H股,和CVNA二手车零售平台差异较大。
  • 相似度 5/10 9868 2025-11-17 XPeng Q3 2025收入同比+101.8%、毛利率提升并指引Q4交付12.5-13.2万辆、收入同比+33.5%-42.8%;event_study显示+1日-10.47%、+3日-14.74%、+5日-15.26%,次日低开低走。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -10.5% · +2日 -10.7% · +3日 -14.7% · +4日 -18.2% · +5日 -15.3%
    相似度依据:同为汽车链高弹性成长股的强收入增长和下季指引,但XPeng仍是制造商且利润质量不及CVNA的Adjusted EBITDA上修。
  • 相似度 5/10 9868 2026-03-20 XPeng Q4 2025首次实现单季净利润,全年交付+125.9%、收入+87.7%;event_study显示+1日0.00%、+3日+0.84%、+5日-2.23%,事件日自身明显高开低走,后续反应中性偏弱。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +0.0% · +2日 +3.2% · +3日 +0.8% · +4日 -1.8% · +5日 -2.2%
    相似度依据:同为汽车链盈利拐点兑现,但XPeng首次单季净利更偏制造端盈利拐点,和CVNA的二手车零售/EBITDA指引上修不同。

原文全文

展开原文 · 8,000 字
Record 197k retail units drive industry-leading 38% YoY growth
Record Quarterly Q2 Net Income of
$513 Million
; industry-leading Net Income margin of 7.0%
Record Adjusted EBITDA of
$769 Million
; industry-leading 10.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin
Expects a sequential increase in retail units sold in Q3 and Adjusted EBITDA
1
of
$2.7
-
$3.0 billion
for the full year 2026
PHOENIX
--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Carvana (NYSE: CVNA), the leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling cars, today announced financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Carvana’s complete second quarter 2026 financial results and management commentary are available in the company’s
shareholder letter
on the quarterly results page of its Investor Relations website.
“Q2 2026 was Carvana’s 10th consecutive quarter of industry-leading growth and profitability, and it was made possible by the foundations we laid in the 10 years prior,” said Ernie Garcia, Carvana founder and CEO. “We built an experience customers love, our model gets better as we get bigger, and our execution is the key driver of our progress from here. At Carvana’s current run-rate scale of almost 800k retail units and over
$2 billion
Net income, we are still just 1.5% of the
U.S
. automotive market. Our opportunity is very clear, and we are more confident than ever in the path ahead.”
Q2 2026 Highlights
In Q2 2026, Carvana sold 197,325 retail units (+38% YoY) for total revenue of
$7.376 billion
(+52% YoY), both all-time quarterly records. This growth was paired with record Q2 profitability, including:
Record Net Income of
$513 million
(
+$205 million
YoY)
Record Adjusted EBITDA of
$769 million
(
+$168 million
YoY)
Record GAAP Operating Income of
$680 million
(
+$169 million
YoY)
Outlook
Carvana’s results in Q1 and Q2 position the company for a strong Q3 and Q4. Looking forward, Carvana expects the following as long as the environment remains stable:
A sequential increase in retail units sold in Q3 compared to Q2, and
Adjusted EBITDA
1
of
$2.7
-
$3.0 billion
for the full year 2026, an increase from
$2.24 billion
last year.
_______________
1
In order to clearly demonstrate our progress and highlight the most meaningful drivers within our business, we continue to use forecasted Non-GAAP financial measures, including forecasted Adjusted EBITDA. We have not provided a quantitative reconciliation of forecasted GAAP measures to forecasted Non-GAAP measures within this communication because we are unable, without making unreasonable efforts, to forecast fair value changes or calculate one-time or restructuring expenses. These items could materially affect the computation of forward-looking Net Income (loss). Forecasted results and future objectives may be impacted by factors outside Carvana’s control. See “Forward Looking Statements” herein.
Conference Call Details
Carvana will host a conference call today, July 29, 2026, at 5:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. PT) to discuss financial results. To participate in the live call, analysts and investors should dial (800) 715-9871 or (646) 307-1963. A live audio webcast of the conference call along with supplemental financial information will also be accessible on the company's website at
investors.carvana.com
. Following the webcast, an archived version will also be available on the Investor Relations section of the company’s website. A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available until August 5, 2026, by dialing (800) 770-2030 and entering passcode 3609424#.
Forward Looking Statements
This letter contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect Carvana’s current expectations and projections with respect to, among other things, its financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, strategy, future performance, and business. These statements may be preceded by, followed by or include the words "aim," "anticipate," "believe," "can," "could," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," “goal,” "intend," "likely," "may," “opportunity,” "outlook," "plan," “position,” "potential," "project," "projection," "seek," "should," "will," "would," the negatives thereof and other words and terms of similar meaning.
Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical facts, including expectations regarding our future financial performance; scale; customer experiences; forecasted results, including forecasted Adjusted EBITDA and forecasted retail units sold; the composition of and trends in Total GPU, including Retail GPU and Other GPU, and our use of retail pricing and customer-facing interest rate levers; operational and efficiency initiatives and gains; our strategy; potential infrastructure capacity utilization, integration, buildouts, and potential benefits therefrom; efficiency gains and opportunities to improve our results, including opportunities to increase our margins and reduce our expenses, trends or expectations regarding inventory, expected customer patterns and demand; expectations on anticipated timing of increased production output; potential benefits from and expectations regarding new technology, including the use of artificial intelligence; anticipated benefits of integrations, including relating to ADESA; our long-term financial goals; unexpected macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical, trade, and regulatory uncertainty and commodity prices; and growth opportunities. Such forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties.
Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Among these factors are risks related to: the larger automotive ecosystem, including consumer demand, global supply chain challenges, and other macroeconomic issues, including the effects of tariffs and other trade restrictions, fuel and energy costs, and the conflict in
Iran
on our business and industry; our ability to effectively manage our rapid growth; the changes in prices of new and used vehicles; changes in laws, regulations, and industry practices applicable to the sale, financing, and advertising of new and used vehicles, including recent FTC rulemaking; our ability to utilize our available infrastructure capacity, build out reconditioning facilities, and realize the expected benefits therefrom, including increased margins and lower expenses; the benefits from our initiatives relating to ADESA; our ability to scale up our business; our ability to raise additional capital and our substantial indebtedness; our ability to maintain customer service quality and reputational integrity and enhance our brand; the seasonal and other fluctuations in our quarterly and annual operating results; our relationship with DriveTime and its affiliates; the highly competitive industry in which we participate, which among other consequences, could impact our long-term growth opportunities; our ability to acquire and expeditiously sell desirable inventory; our ability to grow complementary product and service offerings; our use of artificial intelligence technology; and the other risks identified under the “Risk Factors” section in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
There is no assurance that any forward-looking statements will materialize. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which reflect expectations only as of this date. Carvana does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise.
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures
To supplement the consolidated financial measures, which are prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP, we also refer to the following non-GAAP measures in this press release: Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin.
Adjusted EBITDA i

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