🏢 官网IRGENICodex · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▲ 赚 +12.12% · 已结算把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 20:00:00(美东 08:00)·⟳ 抓取 20:04:03·⚡ 决策 08-04 20:17:23 +13m20s·84.2 天前
Genius Sports与Polymarket扩大美国体育预测市场官方数据、直播和合规服务合作
GENI官方在美股开盘前披露Polymarket美国平台即刻采用其官方数据、精选赛事独家直播、联盟IP、完整性服务和Legend媒体营销，属于外部客户选型。
📄 原文GENI↗ 原文
Genius Sports - Polymarket and Genius Sports Expand the Role of Official Data, Exclusive Live Sports Streaming and Inte…
▲ 赚 +12.12%入场 08-04 盘前首笔 @7.382 → 离场 08-05 常规开盘 @8.290
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑Polymarket扩约，GENI供数据直播
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +5%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +6%(半仓)/+12%(清仓) · 止损 -6% · 时间止损 4日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 GENI.US Genius Sports
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 GENI.US Genius Sports
| 收益状态 | +12.12% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-08-04 · 盘前首笔 · 08-04 20:06 北京 · @7.3823 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-08-05 · 常规开盘 · @8.29 |
| 毛收益 | +12.29% |
| 成本 | +0.17% |
| 净收益 | +12.12% |
| 计入收益 | +12.12% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-08-04 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-28 01:19
研究档案
消息传播链
- 前序合作已涉及Liga MX、Polymarket和GENI官方数据及完整性协作，说明今天是合作范围扩展而非首次接触。
- GENI官方披露Polymarket美国平台将使用其官方数据、独家直播、联盟IP、完整性和营销服务，协议立即生效。市场反应:美股尚未开盘；GENI最新可用价7.07美元，近20日+6.8%。
关键理由
- GENI官方在美股开盘前披露Polymarket美国平台即刻采用其官方数据、精选赛事独家直播、联盟IP、完整性服务和Legend媒体营销，属于外部客户选型。
- GENI市值约18.9亿美元，2026年收入指引约9.9亿至10.1亿美元；本次未披露金额，单年增量可能只是个位数收入，但打开体育预测市场新TAM。
- 12条同类先例中高相似样本3日胜率为100%，最贴近的SRAD-Kalshi预测市场数据合作3日上涨20.4%，支持保留试探多头但不用大仓。
主要风险
- 协议未披露收费、分成或最低采购承诺，且6月已有Liga MX-Polymarket-GENI前序合作，重大性可能低于标题强度。
- 高相似且锚干净的GENI同市场先例只有2条，涨幅口径很薄；若开盘跳空过高或监管端压缩体育预测市场，需放弃或退出。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-10 · 影响 weakens
6月已有较窄的Liga MX-Polymarket-GENI官方数据与完整性合作，削弱“首次合作”新鲜度但不否定本次扩约。
检索:Genius Sports Polymarket Liga MX June 2026 official data integrity 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
NFL要求CFTC收紧体育预测市场监管，提示Polymarket体育合约扩张存在外部合规阻力。
检索:NFL pushes CFTC crack down prediction markets July 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部KB检索超时，未能补到付费库对本次金额或收入分成的进一步量化。
检索:Genius Sports Polymarket partnership official data streaming integrity revenue
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例没有推翻首轮多头，反而强化“预测市场基础设施是新TAM”的方向；但因同市场高相似样本不足3条且本次未披露金额，维持probe并把追高上限从6%收紧到5%。
方向:高相似5条样本1日和3日胜率均为100%，相似度加权3日胜率约79%，方向支持做多。
涨幅量级:交易级decision_grade只有2条锚干净同市场高相似样本，3日中位+16.4%但样本极薄；更稳妥采用全对齐层3日中位+3.4%与高相似上沿，止盈收在6%/12%。
形态:没有稳定的见光死模式；部分中相似样本有锚前异动和次日低走，但GENI高相似NFL扩约与SRAD-Kalshi均表现为多日延续。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 9/10 GENI.US 2026-06-10 Liga MX、Polymarket与GENI宣布美国官方数据和完整性协作，范围较今天窄、同一客户链。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +0.6% · +2日 +4.0% · +3日 +1.3% · +4日 +1.6% · +5日 +1.6%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动14.0%>锚定日0.6% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同一Polymarket美国预测市场链条，但6月仅Liga MX和完整性合作，范围小于当前。
经验:同客户前序合作当日反应有限，说明今天必须依赖“扩至多联盟+直播+结算数据”的增量。 - 相似度 9/10 SRAD.US 2026-06-08 Sportradar与Kalshi签订预测市场全球数据和基础设施合作，覆盖官方数据、赔率、营销和完整性。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +9.8% · +2日 +18.0% · +3日 +20.4% · +4日 +22.0% · +5日 +15.0%
相似度依据:同为体育预测市场平台选择上市数据商供数据、营销和完整性，差别是GENI多了直播/IP。
经验:预测市场基础设施首单会被市场当新TAM重估，三日趋势延续概率高于普通sportsbook扩约。 - 相似度 8/10 GENI.US 2023-07-06 NFL将GENI独家官方数据和Watch & Bet分发合作延长至2027-28赛季，含美国/加拿大视频分发。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +25.6% · +2日 +28.7% · +3日 +28.6% · +4日 +35.6% · +5日 +37.0%
相似度依据:同为GENI盘前外部硬选型和官方数据+直播权益扩约，但NFL体量明显强于Polymarket。
经验:当合作方足够核心且包含独家视频/官方数据权益时，GENI可出现多日趋势而非单日见光死。 - 相似度 8/10 GENI.US 2023-11-15 FanDuel扩大GENI合作上线NFL BetVision直播方案，客户是美国头部sportsbook，未披露金额。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.0% · +2日 +0.6% · +3日 +3.0% · +4日 +7.5% · +5日 +7.5%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动5.9%>锚定日2.0% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为GENI把直播体验嵌入博彩/交易场景，但该事件有锚前异动且客户类型不同。
经验:流媒体嵌入类合作可以延续数日，但若锚前已有异动，开盘追高的边际收益会被压缩。 - 相似度 8/10 GENI.US 2025-06-11 NFL与GENI再度延展至2029赛季，增加BetVision内广告和NFL平台数字广告权益。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +3.0% · +2日 +11.6% · +3日 +4.3% · +4日 +5.2% · +5日 +2.6%
相似度依据:同为GENI外部平台扩约、官方数据和BetVision/广告权益组合，但NFL权利体量强于当前。
经验:真正扩展到广告和视频变现时，GENI三日仍可跑赢市场，适合给数日持有窗口。 - 相似度 7/10 GENI.US 2025-04-25 NCAA与GENI将合作扩展至2032，GENI为March Madness等官方数据独家供应商并提供诚信保护。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.5% · +2日 +2.2% · +3日 +3.4% · +4日 +2.2% · +5日 +2.2%
相似度依据:官方数据+完整性服务机制相近，但NCAA不是预测市场入口，创新性低一档。
经验:长期官方数据续约能给正收益，但无金额时更像小幅重估而非高弹性事件。 - 相似度 7/10 SRAD.US 2025-02-07 MLB与Sportradar将独家数据、Statcast和AV内容合作扩至2032，并向MLB授予SRAD股票。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +1.2% · +2日 -0.1% · +3日 -0.8% · +4日 +0.9% · +5日 +3.5%
相似度依据:官方数据和AV权利更强，但不是预测市场合作且发生在SRAD。
经验:即使权利确定性更高，已成熟的官方数据扩约也可能只给低个位数反应。 - 相似度 6/10 GENI.US 2023-06-23 GENI延长Football DataCo低延迟官方博彩数据合作并扩展英超/EFL AI追踪技术，未披露金额。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -1.2% · +2日 -0.3% · +3日 -1.7% · +4日 -0.2% · +5日 -1.0%
相似度依据:同为GENI官方数据/直播权扩约，但客户不是预测市场且商业闭环弱于当前。
经验:普通官方数据权扩约若不披露金额，常只提供温和确认，不能按大单追高。 - 相似度 6/10 GENI.US 2024-08-05 GENI与Football DataCo将独家官方数据合作延至2029并增加Player Market Data，未披露金额。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -3.9% · +2日 +6.6% · +3日 +5.5% · +4日 +12.7% · +5日 +9.5%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动8.6%>锚定日3.9% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为数据权延长，但更偏既有权利续约且当时大盘扰动明显。
经验:既有权利续约首日未必立刻涨，若不是新TAM开口更适合限价而非市价。 - 相似度 6/10 SRAD.US 2022-10-26 Sportradar与FanDuel签署长期官方NBA数据协议至2030-31赛季并延长主数据关系。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -2.2% · +2日 -4.5% · +3日 +2.2% · +4日 +5.9% · +5日 +7.8%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动9.4%>锚定日2.2% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同为体育数据商向博彩客户供官方数据，但没有预测市场和流媒体组合。
经验:博彩客户数据长约方向偏正，但锚前异动会让首日低走风险上升。 - 相似度 6/10 SRAD.US 2023-07-11 Sportradar扩大Caesars合作，成为NBA/MLB/NHL官方体育博彩数据供应商。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -0.8% · +2日 +3.7% · +3日 +7.8% · +4日 +4.5% · +5日 +5.3%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动11.4%>锚定日0.8% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:客户和官方数据传导相似，但缺少预测市场CFTC入口与独家直播。
经验:Sportsbook客户扩约若有板块顺风，三日可继续涨，但锚前大涨会污染追高收益。 - 相似度 5/10 SRAD.US 2026-03-26 Sportradar扩大Hard Rock Bet合作，加入PGA TOUR和UFC官方数据、赔率与in-play能力。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -2.8% · +2日 -7.3% · +3日 -9.4% · +4日 -9.6% · +5日 -10.2%
⚠锚前1-2日已异动5.2%>锚定日2.8% — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
相似度依据:同属体育数据供给，但只是存量sportsbook扩功能，政策/新入口属性弱。
经验:普通功能扩展在弱势走势里会被忽略，不能单靠“官方数据”四字开仓。
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(6 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- validate_order · 结果未知
- search_case_library · 结果未知
- event_study · 结果未知
原文全文
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Genius Sports - Polymarket and Genius Sports Expand the Role of Official Data, Exclusive Live Sports Streaming and Integrity Services in Prediction Markets
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Polymarket and Genius Sports Expand the Role of Official Data, Exclusive Live Sports Streaming and Integrity Services in Prediction Markets
August 4, 2026
New U.S. partnership combines exclusive live sports streaming, official data and integrity capabilities to deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for eligible users.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Genius Sports Limited (“Genius Sports”) (NYSE: GENI), a global leader in real-time sports data, today announced an agreement with Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. The partnership provides exclusive streaming rights and league IP across selected official competitions, alongside official data and integrity services for Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated U.S. platform.
The partnership will enable Polymarket users in the U.S. to access exclusive live match streaming content alongside related real-time event contracts, including streaming of Serie A, an exclusive partner of Polymarket in the United States. Genius Sports’ official data will be used to determine the outcome and settlement of covered sports contracts, ensuring each market resolves using the same verified event information supplied to professional leagues.
Genius Sports will help to drive Polymarket’s continued expansion through its digital marketing solutions, including Legend-owned media properties. The partnership will make Polymarket a pioneer in pairing live sports streams with related real-time event contracts in a CFTC-regulated prediction-market platform.
Polymarket will also participate in Genius Sports’ integrity information-sharing processes, giving leagues and governing bodies greater visibility into related market activity and enabling real-time coordination around irregular trading patterns. The arrangement complements and enhances Polymarket’s existing market-surveillance and compliance infrastructure.
"Trust, transparency and innovation are fundamental to the long-term development of sports prediction markets," said Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket. "Live streaming, official data and integrity infrastructure play an important role in establishing an engaging product that customers can depend on. Our partnership with Genius Sports gives professional leagues direct visibility into prediction market activity around their competitions and reflects the standard we hold across every official league relationship we build."
The partnership marks the latest expansion of Polymarket's sports infrastructure, which now spans official league partnerships with MLB, Liga MX, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, MLS, NHL and UFC.
“Prediction markets are emerging as an important new way for fans to engage with live sports,” said Sean Conroy, EVP of Rights and Partnerships at Genius Sports. “As the category continues to grow, robust integrity safeguards are not simply optional; they are foundational. By bringing together official data, live streaming, league IP, integrity services and the reach of our Legend media network, we are helping Polymarket deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for sports fans across the U.S.”
The agreement takes effect immediately, with Polymarket US markets across selected Genius Sports official leagues and competitions available to eligible U.S. users.
About Genius Sports
Genius Sports is a global leader in real-time sports data, and the official technology and media partner powering the global sports ecosystem. Its platform is used in more than 150 countries, connecting leagues, teams, sportsbooks, broadcasters, brands and fans through official data, video, analytics and fan engagement solutions.
Genius Sports partners with more than 1,000 sports organizations worldwide, including the NFL, English Premier League, NCAA, DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, CBS, NBC and ESPN. Through AI, computer vision and live sports technology, Genius Sports helps rights holders capture, manage and commercialize their content across the full fan journey.
For more information, visit geniussports.com.
About Polymarket
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform, where participants trade on the outcomes of real-world events. By harnessing the wisdom of the crowd and the efficiency of markets, Polymarket generates real-time probability estimates that have proven to be among the most accurate forecasting tools available. Polymarket's markets span global politics, economics, science, technology, sports, culture, and more, attracting hundreds of thousands of participants worldwide. Polymarket US operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market under the Commodity Exchange Act. For more information, visit polymarket.com.
Genius Sports
press@geniussports.com
Brandon Bukstel, Investor Relations Manager
+1 (954)-554-7932
brandon.bukstel@geniussports.com
Polymarket
press@polymarket.com
Source: Genius Sports
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News Details
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Polymarket and Genius Sports Expand the Role of Official Data, Exclusive Live Sports Streaming and Integrity Services in Prediction Markets
August 4, 2026
New U.S. partnership combines exclusive live sports streaming, official data and integrity capabilities to deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for eligible users.
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Genius Sports Limited (“Genius Sports”) (NYSE: GENI), a global leader in real-time sports data, today announced an agreement with Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. The partnership provides exclusive streaming rights and league IP across selected official competitions, alongside official data and integrity services for Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated U.S. platform.
The partnership will enable Polymarket users in the U.S. to access exclusive live match streaming content alongside related real-time event contracts, including streaming of Serie A, an exclusive partner of Polymarket in the United States. Genius Sports’ official data will be used to determine the outcome and settlement of covered sports contracts, ensuring each market resolves using the same verified event information supplied to professional leagues.
Genius Sports will help to drive Polymarket’s continued expansion through its digital marketing solutions, including Legend-owned media properties. The partnership will make Polymarket a pioneer in pairing live sports streams with related real-time event contracts in a CFTC-regulated prediction-market platform.
Polymarket will also participate in Genius Sports’ integrity information-sharing processes, giving leagues and governing bodies greater visibility into related market activity and enabling real-time coordination around irregular trading patterns. The arrangement complements and enhances Polymarket’s existing market-surveillance and compliance infrastructure.
"Trust, transparency and innovation are fundamental to the long-term development of sports prediction markets," said Ari Borod, President of Sports Business Development at Polymarket. "Live streaming, official data and integrity infrastructure play an important role in establishing an engaging product that customers can depend on. Our partnership with Genius Sports gives professional leagues direct visibility into prediction market activity around their competitions and reflects the standard we hold across every official league relationship we build."
The partnership marks the latest expansion of Polymarket's sports infrastructure, which now spans official league partnerships with MLB, Liga MX, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, MLS, NHL and UFC.
“Prediction markets are emerging as an important new way for fans to engage with live sports,” said Sean Conroy, EVP of Rights and Partnerships at Genius Sports. “As the category continues to grow, robust integrity safeguards are not simply optional; they are foundational. By bringing together official data, live streaming, league IP, integrity services and the reach of our Legend media network, we are helping Polymarket deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for sports fans across the U.S.”
The agreement takes effect immediately, with Polymarket US markets across selected Genius Sports official leagues and competitions available to eligible U.S. users.
About Genius Sports
Genius Sports is a global leader in real-time sports data, and the official technology and media partner powering the global sports ecosystem. Its platform is used in more than 150 countries, connecting leagues, teams, sportsbooks, broadcasters, brands and fans through official data, video, analytics and fan engagement solutions.
Genius Sports partners with more than 1,000 sports organizations worldwide, including the NFL, English Premier League, NCAA, DraftKings, FanDuel, bet365, CBS, NBC and ESPN. Through AI, computer vision and live sports technology, Genius Sports helps rights holders capture, manage and commercialize their content across the full fan journey.
For more information, visit geniussports.com.
About Polymarket
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market platform, where participants trade on the outcomes of real-world events. By harnessing the wisdom of the crowd and the efficiency of markets, Polymarket generates real-time probability estimates that have proven to be among the most accurate forecasting tools available. Polymarket's markets span global politics, economics, science, technology, sports, culture, and more, attracting hundreds of thousands of participants worldwide. Polymarket US operates as a CFTC-regulated designated contract market under the Commodity Exchange Act. For more information, visit polymarket.com.
Genius Sports
press@geniussports.com
Brandon Bukstel, Investor Relations Manager
+1 (954)-554-7932
brandon.bukstel@geniussports.com
Polymarket
press@polymarket.com
Source: Genius Sports
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