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🏢 官网IRGGGDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 04:22:00(美东 10-21 16:22)·⟳ 抓取 04:28:39回填·⚡ 决策 10-22 04:51:50·5.8 天前

固瑞克(Graco)Q3创纪录营收5.864亿美元但小幅不及预期,Q4指引偏弱,盘后跌约8%,已被前序研判覆盖

本IR新闻稿与20:45 UTC已处理的GGG Q3财报为同一具体催化,经全文比对关键数字(营收586.4M、调整后EPS 0.81、Q4指引610-640M、有机订单+7%、ABB数据中心授权、1.32亿美元回购)完全一致,无新增事实;前序结论为MIXED财报多空edge均不足。实时盘后报价证实已即时重定价:post价75.33美元、-7.92%(区间高点81.81/低点73.95),小幅营收/EPS miss加指引中值低于预期的利空已被吸收,此时追空易超跌反弹;做多则面对Q4指引偏弱、GAAP EPS同比下滑及26.6倍TTM PE估值,方向edge不足。ABB授权为无金额的技术许可,对双方均无交易级增量。

📄 原文GGG↗ 原文
Graco Reports Record Third Quarter Sales
PDF Version Growth in All Segments and Regions MINNEAPOLIS --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 2026-- Graco Inc. (NYSE: GGG) to…
不做 Graco Inc. (固瑞克)(GGG.US)
同一Q3财报催化已于20:45 UTC研判为不做,本IR一手稿无新增事实;MIXED财报(营收/EPS小幅双miss+Q4指引偏弱 vs 订单+7%/回购/ABB合作)的利空已在盘后即时下跌约7.9%(75.33美元)中充分定价,追空易遇超跌反弹与电话会修正,做多有指引下修压顶,多空edge均不足
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

创纪录营收但营收/EPS小幅双miss、Q4指引中值低于预期,属温和MIXED财报;盘后已即时下跌约8%充分定价,且同一催化22分钟前已研判为不做,多空均无剩余edge。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-21 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗ ↗

关键理由

  • 利空侧:营收/EPS小幅双miss且Q4指引中值低于一致预期,盘后-7.9%已基本完成重定价,追空空间有限且财报次日易超跌反弹
  • 利多侧:有机订单+7%、大额回购与ABB数据中心合作提供支撑,但指引偏弱压制追高,不足以构成正期望做多

主要风险

  • 10月22日11:00 ET电话会若给出更强2027订单/利润率表述或ABB合作商业化细节,盘后超跌可能次日大幅反弹,做空风险高
  • 若管理层在电话会中下修全年有机增长或强调关税/成本压力,则可能进一步下探,当前-8%并非确定底部

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-21 · 影响 weakens
    Q4指引610-640M中值低于一致预期约642M,GAAP EPS同比-9%,产品成本上升,构成多头实质压制
    检索:Graco Q3 2026 guidance miss Q4 outlook tariffs 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-10-21 · 影响 weakens
    有机订单+7%、年内回购4.63亿美元、调整后EPS同比+5%及ABB数据中心合作提供基本面支撑,盘后-8%后追空赔率差
    检索:Graco organic orders 7% ABB data center buyback 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:对最终决策无影响;维持前序MIXED财报不做判断

方向:未另行检索外部先例:本条为重复催化的早停式AVOID,决策依据是同一事件已被本臂研判且盘后价格已即时重定价,先例不会改变PRICE_IN结论

涨幅量级:不适用

形态:不适用

工具执行结果 · 成功 2 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 16,135 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`graco ggg third quarter 2026 earnings record sales | graco q4 guidance 610 640 million abb data center | graco transverse flux motor abb license`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 72.0/72 小时、26983 条本臂决策(完整),返回 6 条候选。\n• 10-21 20:45 UTC(北京 10-22 04:45) [bm25:49
  2. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,983 ms
    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 13,586 字
PDF Version
Growth in All Segments and Regions
MINNEAPOLIS
--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 21, 2026--
Graco Inc.
(NYSE: GGG)
today announced results for the third quarter ended
September 25, 2026
and also announces technology partnership with
ABB
for data centers.
Summary
$ in millions except per share amounts
Three Months Ended
Nine Months Ended
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
%
Change
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
%
Change
Net Sales
$
586.4
$
543.4
8
%
$
1,717.1
$
1,643.4
4
%
Operating Earnings
148.1
164.7
(10
)%
461.0
466.2
(1
)%
Net Earnings
121.6
137.6
(12
)%
385.0
389.4
(1
)%
Diluted Net Earnings per Common Share
$
0.75
$
0.82
(9
)%
$
2.32
$
2.30
1
%
Adjusted (non-GAAP):
(1)
Operating Earnings, adjusted
$
160.9
$
158.7
1
%
$
490.2
$
474.5
3
%
Net Earnings, adjusted
$
131.3
$
129.1
2
%
$
400.6
$
387.2
3
%
Diluted Net Earnings per Common Share, adjusted
$
0.81
$
0.77
5
%
$
2.42
$
2.28
6
%
(1)
The adjusted measures of operating earnings, net earnings and diluted net earnings per common share reflect the Company's updated non-GAAP methodology introduced in the second quarter of 2026. See Financial Results Adjusted for Comparability below for additional information.
Net sales for the third quarter increased by 8 percent, with 4 percentage points of organic sales growth and 4 percentage points of sales growth from acquired operations.
Operating earnings decreased 10 percent for the third quarter, primarily due to a non-cash gain of
$14 million
from the reduction in fair value of acquisition-related contingent consideration in the prior year that did not repeat. Adjusted operating earnings increased 1 percent as price realization offset higher product costs in the quarter.
Diluted net earnings per share decreased 9 percent for the third quarter. Adjusted diluted net earnings per share increased 5 percent due to higher adjusted operating earnings and the impact of share repurchases. The Company repurchased
$132 million
of shares in the third quarter and repurchased
$463 million
of shares for the year to date.
Graco entered into a license agreement with
ABB
expanding our patented Transverse Flux Motor technology into data center cooling towers, heat rejection systems and related thermal management applications.
“Graco delivered a solid quarter, with broad-based performance across our businesses and geographies. Growth in professional paint, powder finishing and semiconductor applications, together with contributions from recent acquisitions, demonstrates the diversity of our portfolio and the strength of our market positions,” said
Mark Sheahan
, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We are pleased with the consistency of our execution and remain focused on building on that momentum. We were encouraged that incoming organic orders increased 7% in the quarter and 4% for the year-to-date, with all three segments contributing to year-to-date order growth.”
“While end market conditions remain mixed, we have confidence in the position of our businesses and the opportunities ahead. We continue to invest in innovation and expand into attractive growth markets as evidenced by our recently announced agreement with
ABB
to bring our differentiated motor technology to data centers. We remain focused on executing our strategy and delivering sustainable long-term growth and shareholder value. We expect fourth quarter revenue in the range of
$610 million
to
$640 million
.”
Consolidated and Segment Results
For a discussion of the Company's consolidated and segment results for the third quarter and year to date ended
September 25, 2026
, refer to Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in its most recent Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q dated
October 21, 2026
.
Financial Results Adjusted for Comparability
Beginning in the second quarter of 2026, the Company updated its non-GAAP adjusted measurements to exclude acquisition costs and amortization of acquired intangible assets. The Company excludes acquisition costs and amortization of acquired intangible assets to provide a consistent comparison of operating results across reporting periods. While the Company has a history of acquisition activity, the Company's acquisitions do not occur on a predictable cycle, and transactions vary in complexity, timing, size and nature. Acquisition costs include third-party legal, valuation, consulting and other incremental costs incurred in connection with acquisition activities as well as purchase accounting adjustments. Management uses these adjusted measures to evaluate operating performance and, for acquisition costs, in determining incentive compensation. These excluded items to the non-GAAP adjusted measurements provide supplemental information useful in evaluating the Company's underlying operating performance. Prior-period amounts have been recast to conform to the current presentation.
Excluding the impact of acquisition costs, amortization of acquired intangible assets, the related income tax effects of these items and excess tax benefits from stock option exercises presents a more consistent basis for comparison of financial results. A calculation of the non-GAAP adjusted measurements of operating earnings, earnings before income taxes, income taxes, effective income tax rate, net earnings and diluted earnings per share follows (in millions except per share amounts):
Three Months Ended
Nine Months Ended
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Operating earnings, as reported
$
148.1
$
164.7
$
461.0
$
466.2
Acquisition costs
5.8
1.0
8.9
2.0
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
7.0
7.1
20.3
20.4
Contingent consideration
—
(14.1
)
—
(14.1
)
Operating earnings, adjusted
$
160.9
$
158.7
$
490.2
$
474.5
Earnings before income taxes, as reported
$
152.4
$
168.5
$
473.9
$
478.1
Acquisition costs
5.8
1.0
8.9
2.0
Amortization of acquired intangible assets
7.0
7.1
20.3
20.4
Contingent consideration
—
(14.1
)
—
(14.1
)
Earnings before income taxes, adjusted
$
165.2
$
162.5
$
503.1
$
486.4
Income taxes, as reported
$
30.8
$
30.8
$
88.9
$
88.8
Tax impact of acquisition costs
1.3
0.2
1.9
0.4
Tax impact of amortization of acquired intangible assets
1.7
1.6
4.9
5.0
Excess tax benefit from option exercises
0.1
0.7
6.8
5.1
Income taxes, adjusted
$
33.9
$
33.3
$
102.5
$
99.3
Effective income tax rate
As reported
20.2
%
18.3
%
18.8
%
18.6
%
Adjusted
20.5
%
20.6
%
20.4
%
20.4
%
Net Earnings, as reported
$
121.6
$
137.6
$
385.0
$
389.4
Acquisition costs, net of tax
4.5
0.8
7.0
1.6
Amortization of acquired intangible assets, net of tax
5.3
5.5
15.4
15.4
Contingent consideration
—
(14.1
)
—
(14.1
)
Excess tax benefit from option exercises
(0.1
)
(0.7
)
(6.8
)
(5.1
)
Net Earnings, adjusted
$
131.3
$
129.1
$
400.6
$
387.2
Weighted Average Diluted Shares
163.0
168.6
165.7
169.6
Diluted Earnings per Share
As reported
$
0.75
$
0.82
$
2.32
$
2.30
Adjusted
$
0.81
$
0.77
$
2.42
$
2.28
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
The Company desires to take advantage of the “safe harbor” provisions regarding forward-looking statements of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and is filing this Cautionary Statement in order to do so. From time to time various forms filed by our Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs and Form 8-Ks, and other disclosures, including our 2025 Overview report, press releases, earnings releases, analyst briefings, conference calls and other written documents or oral statements released by our Company, may contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements generally use words such as “expect,” “foresee,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “project,” “should,” “estimate,” “will,” and similar expressions, and reflect our Company’s expectations concerning the future. All forecasts and projections are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon currently available information, but various risks and uncertainties may cause our Company’s actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements in light of new information or future events.
Future results could differ materially from those expressed, due to the impact of changes in various factors. These risk factors include, but are not limited to, risks relating to the demand for our products and the level of commercial, industrial and construction activity worldwide; changes in currency translation rates; international and domestic instability; interest rate fluctuations and changes in credit markets; global sourcing of materials; inflationary cost pressures and our ability to raise prices without decreasing demand for our products; interruptions of or intrusions into our information systems; intellectual property rights; the use of generative artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies; conducting business internationally; catastrophic events; our ability to attract, develop and retain qualified personnel; public health crises; our growth strategies and acquisitions; potential goodwill impairment; our ability to compete effectively; our dependence on a few large customers; our dependence on cyclical industries; changes in laws and regulations; climate-related laws, regulations and accords; environmental, social and governance-related expectations and requirements; compliance with anti-corruption and trade laws; changes in tax or tariff rates or the adoption of new tax or tariff legislation; and costs associated with legal proceedings. Please refer to Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 (and the most recent Form 10-Q) for a more comprehensive discussion of these and other risk factors. These reports are available on the Company’s website at
www.graco.com
and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website at
www.sec.gov
. Shareholders, potential investors and other readers are urged to consider these factors in evaluating forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.
Investors should realize that factors other than those identified above and in Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025 might prove important to the Company’s future results. It is not possible for management to identify each and every factor that may have an impact on the Company’s operations in the future as new factors can develop from time to time.
Conference Call
Graco management will hold a conference call, including slides via webcast, with analysts and institutional investors on
Thursday, October 22, 2026
, at
11 a.m. ET
,
10 a.m. CT
, to discuss Graco’s third quarter results.
A real-time listen-only webcast of the conference call will be broadcast by Nasdaq. Individuals can access the call and view the slides on the Company’s website at
www.graco.com
. Listeners should go to the website at least 15 minutes prior to the live conference call to install any necessary audio software.
About Graco
Graco Inc.
supplies technology and expertise for the management of fluids and coatings in both industrial and commercial applications. It designs, manufactures and markets systems and equipment to move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluid and powder materials. A recognized leader in its specialties,
Minneapolis
-based Graco serves customers around the world in the manufacturing, processing, construction and maintenance industries. For additional information about
Graco Inc.
, please visit us at
www.graco.com
.
GRACO INC.
AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS (Unaudited)
(In thousands except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended
Nine Months Ended
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Net Sales
$
586,385
$
543,358
$
1,717,081
$
1,643,448
Cost of products sold
290,162
254,133
823,273
776,960
Gross Profit
296,223
289,225
893,808
866,488
Product development
20,590
20,251
60,389
60,357
Selling, marketing and distribution
71,497
68,019
210,079
203,567
General and administrative
56,019
50,295
162,354
150,407
Contingent consideration
—
(14,061
)
—
(14,061
)
Operating Earnings
148,117
164,721
460,986
466,218
Interest expense
793
711
2,464
2,079
Other income, net
(5,062
)
(4,450
)
(15,407
)
(14,003
)
Earnings Before Income Taxes
152,386
168,460
473,929
478,142
Income taxes
30,825
30,832
88,935
88,790
Net Earnings
$
121,561
$
137,628
$
384,994
$
389,352
Net Earnings per Common Share
Basic
$
0.75
$
0.83
$
2.36
$
2.34
Diluted
$
0.75
$
0.82
$
2.32
$
2.30
Weighted Average Number of Shares
Basic
161,075
165,733
163,473
166,693
Diluted
163,021
168,623
165,693
169,589
SEGMENT INFORMATION (Unaudited)
(In thousands)
Three Months Ended
Nine Months Ended
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Sep 25
,
2026
Sep 26
,
2025
Net Sales
Contractor
$
276,032
$
262,428
$
835,436
$
806,419
Industrial
264,623
238,591
754,272
712,521
Expansion Markets
45,730
42,339
127,373
124,508
Total
$
586,385
$
543,358
$
1,717,081
$
1,643,448
Operating Earnings
Contractor
$
71,237
$
67,873
$
224,633
$
205,292
Industrial
74,452
80,733
234,605
242,700
Expansion Markets
10,942
10,389
30,072
29,283
Unallocated corporate (expense)
(8,514
)
(8,335
)
(28,324
)
(25,118
)
Contingent consideration
—
14,061
—
14,061
Total
$
148,117
$
164,721
$
460,986
$
466,218
View source version on
businesswire.com
:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261021199771/en/
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:
Investors Contact:
John M. Bower
, 612-623-6770
Media Contact:
Kirstie L. Foster
, 612-623-6249
Kirstie_L_Foster@graco.com
Source:
Graco Inc.

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