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北京时间·🕒 发布 04:05:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 04:09:38·⚡ 决策 07-24 04:13:00 +3m22s·95.5 天前

MaxLinear二季度业绩超预期并给出显著高于预期的三季度收入指引

MaxLinear(MXL.US)Q2收入1.688亿美元,高于约1.65亿美元市场预期,非GAAP EPS 0.35美元也高于0.29-0.33美元预期区间。

📄 原文MXL↗ 原文
MaxLinear, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Q2 net revenue of $168.8 million, up 23% sequentially and up 55% year over year Infrastructure business up 145% year ov…
▲ 做多MaxLinearMXL.US🇺🇸小仓
▼ 亏 -4.05%入场 07-23 盘后首笔 @86.22 → 离场 07-24 常规开盘 @83.00
60.0080.00100.00120.0086.22做多 07-23离场 07-2407-0109-04
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑Q3指引大超预期,AI光互连放量仍有edge
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +6%、仅下一个交易日,不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+16%(清仓) · 止损 -7% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

分时走势

做多 MXL.US MaxLinear

建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图

成交明细 · 纸面

做多 MXL.US MaxLinear

收益状态-4.05% 已平仓
进场成交2026-07-23 · 盘后首笔 · 07-24 04:08 北京 · @86.22
离场成交2026-07-24 · 常规开盘 · @83
毛收益-3.73%
成本+0.32%
净收益-4.05%
计入收益-4.05%
建仓日2026-07-23 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟

收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 16:44

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-23 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-01 16:35 ET其它MaxLinear IR一手源原文 ↗
    公司提前公告Q2财报将在2026-07-23盘后发布,因此财报日历本身不是新信息。
  2. 2026-07-23 16:05 ET官方确认/否认MaxLinear IR一手源原文 ↗
    公司正式披露Q2收入、EPS和Q3收入指引,新增核心是Q3收入2.10亿-2.20亿美元。
    市场反应:盘后不可连续成交时段;公开盘后报价显示MXL盘后上涨约2.1%。
  3. 2026-07-23 20:00 ET市场反应Public.com非一手原文 ↗
    盘后价格88.63美元,相对86.80美元收盘价上涨2.11%,说明市场已开始正向重定价但尚非大幅跳空。
    市场反应:after-hours +2.11%

关键理由

  • MaxLinear(MXL.US)Q2收入1.688亿美元,高于约1.65亿美元市场预期,非GAAP EPS 0.35美元也高于0.29-0.33美元预期区间。
  • 公司给出Q3收入2.10亿-2.20亿美元指引,明显高于Stifel披露的约1.739亿美元市场预期,核心增量来自光AI数据中心产品和800G PAM4 DSP放量。
  • 现有年化收入基数约6.5亿美元,Q3指引中点2.15亿美元意味着单季环比约27%,若能兑现,AI光互连业务将把公司从周期修复重估为数据中心高成长标的。

主要风险

  • MXL过去一年涨幅极大且7月已多次剧烈波动,财报前AI光互连预期已有部分price-in,开盘高开过多容易高开低走。
  • 增长依赖少数hyperscale客户和AI平台项目,若电话会披露客户集中、资格认证或订单节奏不及预期,基本面证伪应优先退出。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-23 · 影响 weakens
    公司风险提示中明确增长依赖少数hyperscale客户和AI平台项目,并仍有Silicon Motion终止并购相关仲裁/诉讼风险。
    检索:MaxLinear MXL overvalued risks customer concentration arbitration Silicon Motion July 2026 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-15 · 影响 weakens
    公开卖方/数据站显示部分平均目标价低于当前价且过去一年涨幅很大,提示估值和price-in风险。
    检索:MXL analyst price target overvalued July 2026 MaxLinear 原文 ↗

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 9/10 CRDO 2025-06-02 Credo FY25 Q4收入同比高增, Q1 FY26收入指引185-195百万美元, hyperscaler AI connectivity需求持续。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +14.8% · +2日 +22.0% · +3日 +16.5% · +4日 +16.5% · +5日 +13.5%
    相似度依据:同为美股AI连接/高速互连芯片链条的财报超预期并给出显著高收入指引, 与MXL本次Q3指引大超预期最接近。
  • 相似度 9/10 CRDO 2026-02-09 Credo预告FY26 Q3收入404-408百万美元, 高于原335-345百万美元指引上沿, 并更新Q4展望。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +9.2% · +2日 +4.0% · +3日 -1.3% · +4日 -1.6% · +5日 +1.1%
    相似度依据:同为AI数据中心连接芯片公司上调当季/下季收入展望, 机制高度一致, 但CRDO弹性和AI纯度高于MXL。
  • 相似度 8/10 LITE 2026-02-03 Lumentum FY26 Q2收入665.5百万美元且EPS显著超指引, 前瞻收入同比增长超85%, AI光网络OCS/CPO叙事强化。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +7.0% · +2日 +15.9% · +3日 +26.9% · +4日 +32.6% · +5日 +29.0%
    相似度依据:同属AI光网络/数据中心链条的财报超预期和强前瞻指引, 但Lumentum偏光器件/模块, 与MXL产品口径不同。
  • 相似度 7/10 COHR 2025-05-07 Coherent FY25 Q3创纪录收入, AI datacenter demand强劲, 光网络新品支撑长期增长。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.4% · +2日 +1.4% · +3日 +11.7% · +4日 +13.3% · +5日 +15.9%
    相似度依据:同为美股光通信/AI数据中心链条财报催化, 但Coherent体量更大、业务更分散, 指引弹性不如MXL/CRDO纯粹。
  • 相似度 7/10 COHR 2026-02-04 Coherent FY26 Q2收入1.69十亿美元, 数据中心通信需求强劲且预计FY26下半年/FY27持续增长并扩产。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -0.8% · +2日 +7.9% · +3日 +14.9% · +4日 +8.2% · +5日 +6.0%
    相似度依据:同市场同AI数据中心光通信需求机制, 但Coherent为大体量多元光子公司, 与MXL小盘半导体弹性不同。
  • 相似度 7/10 CRDO 2025-03-04 Credo FY25 Q3收入同比+154%, Q4收入指引155-165百万美元, AI/data-infrastructure connectivity进入放量阶段。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -14.0% · +2日 -22.6% · +3日 -19.6% · +4日 -27.4% · +5日 -20.2%
    相似度依据:同为AI连接芯片财报和收入指引催化, 但当时估值/持仓拥挤导致反应为负, 是反向风险先例。
  • 相似度 6/10 LITE 2025-02-06 Lumentum FY25 Q2收入/EPS均超指引上沿, cloud demand强劲, 重申2025年底季度收入500百万美元目标。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -7.3% · +2日 -11.6% · +3日 -14.1% · +4日 -14.5% · +5日 -15.7%
    相似度依据:同为美股光通信财报超预期和云需求叙事, 但催化更多是重申中期目标而非下季指引大幅上修。
  • 相似度 6/10 300308 2024-07-15 中际旭创2024H1业绩预告净利+250%-307%, 800G/400G高端光模块出货比重快速增长。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -1.0% · +2日 -5.3% · +3日 -6.4% · +4日 -9.8% · +5日 -10.0%
    相似度依据:同为AI光模块/高速光互连业绩预告超预期, 但A股预告制度、涨跌幅和估值交易节奏与美股财报指引不同。
  • 相似度 6/10 300502 2024-07-15 新易盛2024中报业绩预告净利8.1-9.5亿元、同比+180.89%-229.44%, AI光模块放量。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.4% · +2日 -1.7% · +3日 -3.2% · +4日 -6.3% · +5日 -6.5%
    相似度依据:同为AI光模块业绩预告大幅增长, 但交易标的为A股光模块制造商, 非美股芯片/指引机制。
  • 相似度 5/10 300502 2024-08-28 新易盛2024半年报净利同比超200%且已超去年全年, 但次日盘中一度跌超9%。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -6.4% · +2日 -4.1% · +3日 -9.6% · +4日 -9.6% · +5日 -9.8%
    相似度依据:同为AI光模块强业绩兑现, 但锚点是半年报兑现而非业绩预告/指引, 更适合观察sell-the-news风险。

原文全文

展开原文 · 7,999 字
Q2 net revenue of $168.8 million, up 23% sequentially and up 55% year over year

Infrastructure business up 145% year over year reflecting accelerated adoption of optical AI data center products

CARLSBAD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
MaxLinear, Inc. (Nasdaq: MXL), a leading provider of radio frequency (RF), analog, digital and mixed-signal integrated circuits, today announced financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.

Second Quarter Financial Summary

($ in thousands, except per share amounts)

GAAP

Three Months Ended

June 30, 2026

March 31, 2026

June 30, 2025

Q/Q

Y/Y

Net revenue

$

168,847

$

137,188

$

108,813

23

%

55

%

Gross Margin

57.8

%

57.5

%

56.5

%

30 bps

130 bps

Operating Expenses

$

101,848

$

96,093

$

86,140

6

%

18

%

Operating Margin

(2.5

)%

(12.5

)%

(22.6

)%

1,000 bps

2,010 bps

Diluted Net Income (Loss) Per Share

$

0.02

$

(0.52

)

$

(0.31

)

104

%

106

%

Non-GAAP

Three Months Ended

June 30, 2026

March 31, 2026

June 30, 2025

Q/Q

Y/Y

Gross Margin

59.5

%

59.5

%

59.1

%

— bps

40 bps

Operating Expenses

$

62,798

$

59,916

$

56,555

5

%

11

%

Operating Margin

22.3

%

15.9

%

7.2

%

640 bps

1,510 bps

Diluted Net Income Per Share

$

0.35

$

0.22

$

0.02

59

%

1650

%

Management Commentary

“Q2 results underscore the ongoing significant inflection in MaxLinear’s overall business as we delivered 55% year-over-year revenue growth, including 145% growth year over year in our data center-oriented infrastructure revenue,” said Kishore Seendripu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MaxLinear. “The strong momentum in our optical AI data center business reflects the ramp of our Keystone PAM4 DSP platform for 800G applications, as well as the strength of our expanding infrastructure portfolio and roadmap for 1.6T- capable products. With the convergence of multiple growth drivers over the next two years, and with our continued focus on innovation, operational excellence, and disciplined execution, we believe MaxLinear is well-positioned to deliver sustained growth, expanding profitability, and long-term value for our shareholders.”

Third Quarter 2026 Business Outlook

The Company estimates the following (in millions):

GAAP

Non-GAAP

( except for revenue)

Revenue

$210 - $220

$210 - $220

Gross Margin

57.0% - 60.0%

58.5% - 61.5%

Operating Expenses

$98 - $104

$66 - $71

Interest and Other Expense, Net

$3.8 - $4.2

$3.7 - $4.1

Income Tax Provision (Benefit)

$1.5

$1.0

Fully Diluted Share Count

99

99

Webcast and Conference Call

MaxLinear will host its second quarter financial results conference call today, July 23, 2026 at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time). To access this call, dial US toll free: 1-877-407-3109 / International: 1-201-493-6798. A live webcast of the conference call will be accessible from the investor relations section of the MaxLinear website at https://investors.maxlinear.com and will be archived and available after the call at https://investors.maxlinear.com until August 6, 2026. A replay of the conference call will also be available until August 6, 2026 by dialing US toll free: 1-877-660-6853 / International: 1-201-612-7415 and Conference ID#: 13761549.

Cautionary Note Concerning Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “project,” “target,” “seek,” “may,” “should,” “will” and similar references to future periods. Forward-looking statements include, among others, statements concerning our future financial performance (including our current guidance for third quarter 2026, including net revenue and GAAP and non-GAAP amounts for each of the following: gross margins, operating expenses, interest and other expenses, income tax provision (benefit), and diluted share counts); the start of a multi-year growth phase and our potential for sustained growth and increasing profitability in 2026 and beyond; statements regarding an inflection point in, and anticipated step-function or accelerating revenue growth from, our optical data center and infrastructure businesses; statements regarding the momentum, traction, and production ramps of our optical data center and other connectivity products, including at hyperscale customers and across scale-up and scale-out AI platforms; statements regarding the ramp of our Keystone PAM4 DSP platform for 800G applications and the development, roadmap, and anticipated availability of our 1.6T-capable products; statements regarding momentum and improving visibility throughout our portfolio; statements regarding continued customer engagement and demand in high-value markets; statements relating to the timing of new products ramping into production; statements related to new and increased products; settlement of bonus awards for our 2026 performance period; statements related to growth trends in the markets in which we operate; and statements by our Chairman and CEO. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and our future financial performance and operating results forecasts generally. Forward-looking statements are based on management’s current, preliminary expectations and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. In particular, our future operating results are substantially dependent on our assumptions about market trends and conditions. Additional risks and uncertainties affecting our business, future operating results and financial condition include, without limitation, risks relating to: our dependence on the ramp of our optical data center and related connectivity products and the concentration of our anticipated growth in a limited number of hyperscale customers and scale-up and scale-out AI-platform programs, and the risk that adoption, program timing, qualification, or demand for AI and data center infrastructure does not develop or continue as anticipated; our terminated merger with Silicon Motion and related arbitration and class action complaint and the risks related to potential payment of damages; the effect of intense and increasing competition; increased tariffs, export controls or imposition of additional trade barriers; impacts of global economic conditions; the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry; a significant variance in our operating results and impact on volatility in our stock price, and our ability to sustain our current level of revenue, which has previously declined, and/or manage future growth effectively; escalating trade wars, military conflicts and other geopolitical and economic tensions among the countries in which we conduct business; international geopolitical and military conflicts; our ability to obtain or retain government authorization to export certain of our products or technology; the loss of, or a significant reduction in orders from major customers; legal proceedings or potential violations of regulations; information technology failures; a decrease in the average selling prices of our products; failure to penetrate new applications and markets; development delays and consolidation trends in our industry; inability to make substantial and productive research and development investments; delays or expenses caused by undetected defects or bugs in our products; substantial quarterly and annual fluctuations in our revenue and operating results; failure to timely develop and introduce new or enhanced products; order and shipment uncertainties and differences between our estimates of customer demand and product mix and our actual

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