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🏢 官网IRPMQwen · 实盘不做把握 8/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 09-08(美东日)仅日期·⟳ 抓取 09-08 20:43:44回填·⚡ 决策 09-14 17:19:25·43.3 天前

菲利普莫里斯国际(PM.US)在巴克莱全球消费品会议上仅因汇率上调2026年报告EPS指引至7.28–7.43美元,调整后EPS区间8.35–8.50美元及其它假设维持7月22日口径不变

一手8-K/新闻稿原文明确:本次上调只反映汇率(currency only),调整后EPS区间8.35–8.50美元与7月22日沟通的全部其它预测假设均未改变,有利汇率贡献由0.15美元升至0.24美元只是折算口径变化,不改变7.5%–9.5%的有机增速,也不构成对盈利质量或未来斜率的新增信息;叠加事件发生于2026年9月8日、当前已是9月14日(4个交易日后),PM.US 在9/8–9/11连续四日上行累计约+4.7%,自家案例库显示同日已就完全相同的催化出过两条「不做」记录,既无增量事实也无剩余时间窗与edge,故研究后判定不做。

📄 原文PM↗ 原文
Report of unscheduled material events or corporate event
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13…
不做 Philip Morris International Inc.(PM.US)
不做:一手8-K/新闻稿明确本次上调『to reflect currency only』——调整后EPS区间8.35–8.50美元与7月22日沟通的其它全部假设未变,剔除0.24美元有利汇率后有机增速仍为7.5%–9.5%,属折算口径改善而非经营预期差;对超大市值必需消费龙头的会议演讲+Reg FD furnished 软催化默认不做。且事件为2026-09-08、当前已至09-14(4个交易日后),PM.US 期间累计+4.7%至191.06美元(9/14盘前193.71…
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

事实层:PMI 于2026-09-08以8-K(Item 7.01 furnished)附新闻稿披露,报告摊薄EPS预测上调至7.28–7.43美元,公司自述 'to reflect currency only';调整后EPS区间8.35–8.50美元未变,剔除0.24美元有利汇率(此前0.15美元)后有机增速仍为7.5%–9.5%,并写明7月22日以来的其它假设全部不变。影响链:汇率折算收益属会计/折算口径改善,不改变销量、价格、结构或利润率,对一个市值极大的必需消费龙头没有可交易的经营预期差;按业绩与指引方法论,名义EPS上调不等于超预期增量,须还原可比口径后比较,此处可比口径(调整后、剔除汇率)完全未动。价格层:PM.US 9/8 +1.21%、9/9 +0.53%、9/10 +2.19%、9/11 +0.68%(收191.06美元),四个交易日累计约+4.7%,事件已被市场消化且更接近防御性板块轮动而非该指引更新的独立重定价;9/14盘前193.71美元、盘前量仅310股,无可用信号。自家案例库显示2026-09-08已就同一催化出过两条「不做」记录,跨源已处理库72小时窗口无新命中。结论:无增量事实 + 已过时 + 超大市值软催化,AVOID,不生成风险信号(事件非净利空)。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-08 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-09-08 09:45 ET首发Philip Morris International Inc. Investor Relations / SEC Fo一手源原文 ↗
    公司一手披露即为本次催化的最早来源:CEO Jacek Olczak 当日在波士顿巴克莱全球消费品会议演讲,配套 furnished 新闻稿只把报告EPS上调归因于汇率,调整后EPS区间及其它假设维持7月22日口径;属 furnished(非 filed)的会议配套披露,非法定业绩公告
    市场反应:PM.US 当日收184.73美元、+1.21%(开181.01/高187.36/低181.01),无跳空式重定价
  2. 2026-09-09 ~ 2026-09-11市场反应Futu 日线(stock_quote)非一手
    事件后连续三个交易日继续上行:9/9 +0.53%、9/10 +2.19%、9/11 +0.68%(收191.06美元),四日累计约+4.7%;走势更接近必需消费/防御板块轮动,未见与该汇率口径更新一一对应的独立放量重定价,说明催化本身未被市场当作新信息交易
    市场反应:9/11 收191.06美元;9/14 盘前193.71美元、盘前成交仅310股(+1.39%),量能极低不具执行意义
  3. 2026-09-08其它自家决策案例库(search_case_library, PM.US)非一手
    同一催化在事件当日已被本系统处理两次并均判「不做」:『巴克莱消费品会议上更新2026全年和Q3调整后EPS指引』与『会议前披露8-K、因汇率上调EPS预测、其它假设维持7月22日口径』;本条为延迟到达的同一事件,无新增金额、指引修正或官方确认
    市场反应:PM.US 全历史相关决策47条,其中该标的自身 ENTER 0 条

关键理由

  • 不做多的核心理由:本次指引上调是纯汇率折算口径(currency only),调整后EPS区间8.35–8.50美元与7月22日全部其它假设均未改变,有机增速仍是7.5%–9.5%,没有经营层面的预期差
  • 超大市值必需消费龙头对无金额增量的软催化(会议演讲+Reg FD furnished 稿)通常不产生可交易的重定价窗口,按超大市值软催化原则默认不做
  • 事件已过去4个交易日,PM.US 9/8–9/11累计上行约4.7%至191.06美元,剩余时间窗与edge均已消失,追高不具备正期望

主要风险

  • 若巴克莱会议现场 Q&A 或此后卖方交流披露了新闻稿之外的实质经营增量(ZYN/IQOS 放量、结构升级、 Smoke-free 收入占比目标上调),本次判断的『无增量事实』前提会被推翻,但那时应作为新事件重新研判而非追本条
  • 本轮 Web Search 返回大量无关结果,外部卖方反应与共识EPS是否已上修未能核验;这不改变一手原文的口径结论,但意味着对外部解读的确认度偏低

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-22 · 影响 none
    内部KB检索为 degraded(phase_a_timeout: factset/transcripts),仅命中 PMI 2026年二季度业绩会路演纪要(2026-07-22,即本次指引的原始基准日),未见9月8日会议带来经营层面新增指引的记录;未命中只表示库内暂无证据
    检索:PMI 2026 全年 EPS 指引 调整 汇率 ZYN IQOS 无烟产品 收入占比(kb_search)
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-09-08 · 影响 invalidates
    同一催化在2026-09-08已被处理两次并均判「不做」;PM.US 相关历史决策47条中该标的自身 ENTER 0 条,本次亦无新增事实可推翻此前判断
    检索:PM.US 自家历史决策与同标的战绩(search_case_library)
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-11 · 影响 weakens
    事件前9/3 −0.94%、9/4 −1.96%(收182.53美元),9/8 低开181.01后收184.73(+1.21%),无事件前异常放量抢跑迹象;事件后四日累计+4.7%属缓慢上行,price-in 风险来自时间损耗而非泄露
    检索:事件前是否存在抢跑/泄露(stock_quote 近10日逐日 + 近6日OHLC)
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 filing · 日期 2026-09-08 · 影响 none
    无:本次为报告EPS区间上调,调整后区间不变;表中0.33美元 RBH 股权投资非现金减值、0.03美元重组费用等均为2026年既有调整项的构成披露,非本次新增确认的净损害;不构成做空红线①的强空催化,故不开空、亦不输出 risk_signals
    检索:是否存在可做空的公司级净利空(指引下调、减值、监管处罚、订单流失) 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例缺失不改变结论:本次判定基于一手原文明确的『currency only / 其它假设不变』与4个交易日的时间损耗,属事实层面的无增量而非依赖统计幅度的判断;若未来 PMI 因经营因素真正上调调整后EPS区间,则应作为新事件重新研究并届时补齐先例面板

方向:未取得可用外部先例;本轮两次 Web Search 检索『PMI 巴克莱会议指引更新』与『PMI 2026调整后EPS区间是否有机上调』均返回与本事件无关的结果(飞利浦官网、游戏站点等),无法定位同类『仅因汇率调整报告EPS、调整后区间不变』的首发事件样本

涨幅量级:无高相似、锚点干净的 aligned 先例可用于校准幅度;因此不设定 tp/sl,直接以『无增量事实+已过时』判不做

形态:从 PM.US 自身日线读事件后形态:9/8 未出现高开低走或见光死(开181.01、收184.73),此后三日温和上行,属缓慢消化而非派发,但同样说明该汇率口径更新未触发一次性重定价

工具执行结果 · 成功 6 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 19 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`adjusted diluted eps $8.35 to $8.50 forecast unchanged july 22 2026 assumptions | jacek olczak investor conference presentation q3 adjusted eps currency | philip morris 8-k item 7.`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agen
  2. fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 12 ms
    {
  3. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 90 ms
    {
  4. web_search 成功 Bing RSS · 267 ms
    Bing RSS 搜索结果(原始查询:Philip Morris International Barclays Global Consumer Conference September 8 2026 guidance adjusted EPS currency only)
  5. web_search 成功 Bing RSS · 334 ms
    Bing RSS 搜索结果(原始查询:PMI Philip Morris 2026 full-year forecast adjusted diluted EPS $8.35-$8.50 raised organic guidance ZYN IQOS September 2026)
  6. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 41 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「PM.US」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 8 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 47 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ PM.US:相关历史决策 47 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n【对所查标的真 ENTER 过的:0 条 —— 相关案例里没有该标的自己的 ENTER 腿】\n【最近 8 条其它决策(多为「不做」,用来看这票最近在被什么消息刷屏)】\n• 2026-09-08 UTC 不做 · 事件:Philip Morris Internati
  7. kb_search 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 10,031 ms
    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 21,169 字
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549




FORM 8-K




CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of
The Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): September 8, 2026




Philip Morris International Inc.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)




Virginia 1-33708 13-3435103
(State or other jurisdiction (Commission File Number) (I.R.S. Employer
of incorporation) Identification No.)




677 Washington Blvd,
Ste. 1100 Stamford Connecticut 06901
(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)



Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (203) 905-2410

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report.)




Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the
following provisions:
☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)


☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)


☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))


☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))




Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:


Title of each class Trading Symbol(s) Name of each exchange on which registered
Common Stock, no par value PM New York Stock Exchange
3.125% Notes due 2027 PM27 New York Stock Exchange
3.125% Notes due 2028 PM28 New York Stock Exchange
2.875% Notes due 2029 PM29 New York Stock Exchange
3.375% Notes due 2029 PM29A New York Stock Exchange
2.750% Notes due 2029 PM29D New York Stock Exchange
3.750% Notes due 2031 PM31B New York Stock Exchange
0.800% Notes due 2031 PM31 New York Stock Exchange
3.250% Notes due 2032 PM32 New York Stock Exchange
3.125% Notes due 2033 PM33 New York Stock Exchange
2.000% Notes due 2036 PM36 New York Stock Exchange
1.875% Notes due 2037 PM37A New York Stock Exchange
6.375% Notes due 2038 PM38 New York Stock Exchange
1.450% Notes due 2039 PM39 New York Stock Exchange
4.375% Notes due 2041 PM41 New York Stock Exchange
4.500% Notes due 2042 PM42 New York Stock Exchange
3.875% Notes due 2042 PM42A New York Stock Exchange
4.125% Notes due 2043 PM43 New York Stock Exchange
4.875% Notes due 2043 PM43A New York Stock Exchange
4.250% Notes due 2044 PM44 New York Stock Exchange
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of
this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter).


Emerging growth company ☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying ☐
with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.
Item 7.01. Regulation FD Disclosure.
On September 8, 2026, Philip Morris International Inc. (“PMI”) is hosting a live audio webcast of a presentation and question-and-answer session by Jacek
Olczak, Group CEO PMI, at the Barclays Global Consumer Conference. In connection with the webcast, PMI is furnishing to the Securities and Exchange
Commission the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference into this Item 7.01.

In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed
“filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The
information in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of
1933, as amended, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing or document.



Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.


99.1 Philip Morris International Inc. Press Release, dated September 8, 2026 (furnished pursuant to Item 7.01).


104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted in Inline XBRL).
SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned
hereunto duly authorized.




PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.

By: /s/ DARLENE QUASHIE HENRY
Name: Darlene Quashie Henry
Title: Vice President, Associate General Counsel & Corporate
Secretary

Date: September 8, 2026
Exhibit 99.1




PRESS RELEASE

Investor Relations: Media:
Email: InvestorRelations@pmi.com Email: Corey.Henry@pmi.com
Stamford, CT: +1 (203) 905 2413 Stamford, CT: +1 (203) 905 2410
Lausanne: +41 582 424 500


Philip Morris International Participates in 2026 Barclays Global Consumer Conference;
Raises 2026 Full-Year Diluted EPS Forecast for Currency Only


STAMFORD, CT, September 8, 2026 – Philip Morris International Inc.’s (PMI) (NYSE: PM) Group CEO PMI, Jacek Olczak, will address
investors today at the 2026 Barclays Global Consumer Conference in Boston at 9:45 a.m. ET.

The live webcast will be available here. The webcast replay will be available at the same link for six months after the event. The webcast may
also be accessed on mobile devices by downloading PMI’s Investor Relations App at www.pmi.com/irapp.


2026 Full-Year Forecast

PMI raises its 2026 full-year reported diluted EPS forecast to a range of $7.28 to $7.43 to reflect currency only. Excluding a total 2026
adjustment of $1.07 per share, the forecast range for adjusted diluted EPS of $8.35 to $8.50 represents a projected increase of 10.7% to
12.7% versus $7.54 in 2025. Excluding a favorable currency impact, at prevailing exchange rates, of $0.24 per share (previously $0.15), this
represents growth of 7.5% to 9.5%. We also update our Q3 adjusted diluted EPS forecast for currency only to a range of $2.29 to $2.34, now
including an estimated 1 cent favorable currency impact (previously unfavorable 8 cents).

All other forecast assumptions remain unchanged from those communicated on July 22, 2026.

Factors described in the Forward-Looking and Cautionary Statements section of this release represent continuing risks to these projections.




1
Full-Year
2026
2025 Growth
Forecast
Reported Diluted EPS $7.28 - $7.43 $7.26
Adjustments
Amortization of intangibles 0.50 0.50
Fair value adjustment for equity investments 0.16 (0.18)
Restructuring charges 0.03 0.14
Income tax impact associated with Swedish Match AB financing 0.06 (0.25)
Non-cash impairment of RBH equity investment 0.33 —
Egypt sales tax settlement adjustment (0.01) —
Other 2025 Adjustments (1) — 0.07
Total Adjustments 1.07 0.28
Adjusted Diluted EPS $8.35 - $8.50 $7.54 10.7% - 12.7%
Less: Currency 0.24
Adjusted Diluted EPS, excluding currency $8.11 - $8.26 $7.54 7.5% - 9.5%
(1) Includes: $0.10 Germany excise tax classification litigation charge; ($0.10) RBH (Canada) Plan Implementation, including dividend income, net; $0.09 Impairment of
Wellness business related equity investment; $0.06 Loss on expected sale of consumer accessories and other businesses; $0.03 Impairment of goodwill; ($0.11) Tax items

Forward-Looking & Cautionary Statements

This press release contains projections of future results and goals and other forward-looking statements, including statements regarding
expected financial or operational performance; capital allocation plans; investment strategies; regulatory outcomes; market expectations;
business plans and strategies. Achievement of future results is subject to risks, uncertainties and inaccurate assumptions. In the event that
risks or uncertainties materialize, or underlying assumptions prove inaccurate, actual results could vary materially from those contained in
such forward-looking statements. Pursuant to the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, PMI is
identifying important factors that, individually or in the aggregate, could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those
contained in any forward-looking statements made by PMI.
PMI's business risks include: marketing and regulatory restrictions that could reduce our competitiveness, disrupt our SFP commercialization
efforts, eliminate our ability to communicate with adult consumers, or ban certain of our products in certain markets or countries; excise tax
increases and discriminatory tax structures; health concerns relating to the use of tobacco and other nicotine-containing products; litigation
related to tobacco and/or nicotine products and intellectual property rights; intense competition; inability to anticipate changes in adult
consumer preferences; use and reliance on third-parties; the adverse effects of global and individual country economic, regulatory and
political developments, natural disasters and conflicts; geopolitical instability; the impact and consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine;
changes in legal-age adult smoker behavior; continued decline of tax-paid cigarettes; lost revenues as a result of counterfeiting, contraband
and cross-border purchases; governmental investigations; unfavorable currency exchange rates and currency devaluations, sustained
periods of elevated inflation, and limitations on the ability to repatriate funds; adverse changes in applicable corporate tax laws; disruptions in
the credit markets or changes to its credit ratings; recent and potential future tariffs imposed by the U.S. and other countries; adverse
changes in the cost, availability, and quality of tobacco and other agricultural products and raw materials, as well as product components for
its electronic devices; and the integrity of its information systems and effectiveness of its data privacy policies. PMI's future profitability may
also be




2
adversely affected should it be unsuccessful, in key markets or systemically, in its efforts to introduce, commercialize, and grow smoke-free
products or if regulation or taxation do not differentiate between such products and cigarettes; if it is unable to successfully introduce new
products, and promote brand equity; if there are prolonged disruptions of facilities used to produce its products; if it is unable to enter new
markets or improve its margins through increased prices and productivity gains; if other market participants are more successful in their SFP
commercialization efforts; if it is unable to attract and retain the best global talent; or if it is unable to successfully integrate and realize the
expected benefits from recent transactions and acquisitions. Future results are also subject to the lower predictability of our smoke-free
products performance.
PMI is further subject to other risks detailed from time to time in its publicly filed documents, including PMI's Annual Report on Form 10-K for
the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, and the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026.
PMI cautions that the foregoing list of important factors is not a complete discussion of all potential risks and uncertainties. PMI does not
undertake to update any forward-looking statement that it may make from time to time, except in the normal course of its public disclosure
obligations.


Philip Morris International: A Global Smoke-Free Champion
Philip Morris International is a leading international consumer goods company, actively delivering a smoke-free future and evolving its
portfolio for the long term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company’s current product portfolio primarily
consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, nicotine pouch and e-vapor products. Our smoke-free products are
available for sale in over 105 markets, and as of December 31, 2025, PMI estimates they were used by over 43 million legal-age consumers
around the world, many of whom have moved away from cigarettes or significantly reduced their consumption. The smoke-free business
accounted for approximately 42% of PMI’s second-quarter 2026 total net revenues. Since 2008, PMI has invested over $16 billion to develop,
scientifically substantiate and commercialize innovative smoke-free products for legal age adults who would otherwise smoke or use other
nicotine-containing consumer products, with the goal of completely ending the sale of cigarettes. This includes the building of world-class
scientific assessment capabilities, notably in the areas of pre-clinical systems toxicology, clinical and behavioral research, as well as post-
market studies. Following a robust science-based review, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the marketing of Swedish
Match’s General snus, ZYN nicotine pouches and versions of PMI’s IQOS devices and consumables - the first-ever such authorizations in
their respective categories. Versions of IQOS devices and consumables, General snus and 20 ZYN nicotine pouch variants also obtained the
first-ever Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorizations from the FDA in their respective categories. With a strong foundation and significant
expertise in life sciences, PMI has a long-term ambition to expand into wellness areas. References to “PMI”, “we”, “our” and “us” mean Philip
Morris International Inc., and its subsidiaries. For more information, please visit www.pmi.com and www.pmiscience.com.


Non-GAAP Measures, Glossary and Explanatory Notes

Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures in this release to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP measures can be found in Exhibit 99.2 to
the Form 8-K dated July 22, 2026, and here. A glossary of key terms, definitions and explanatory notes is available in the aforementioned
Exhibit 99.2 and on the same webpage, where additional financial schedules, as well as adjustments and other calculations have also been
made available.
Management reviews earnings per share, or "EPS," on an adjusted basis, which may exclude the impact of currency and other items such as
acquisitions, divestitures, restructuring costs, tax items and other adjusting items. Additionally, starting in 2022 and on a comparative basis,
PMI includes adjustments to add back amortization expense on acquisition related intangible assets that are recorded as part of purchase
accounting and contribute to PMI’s revenue generation, as well as impairment of intangible assets, if any. While amortization




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expense on acquisition related intangible assets is excluded, the net revenues generated from these acquired intangible assets are included
in the company's adjusted measures, unless otherwise stated. Currency-neutral rates reflect the way management views underlying
performance for these measures. PMI believes that such measures provide useful insight into underlying business trends and results.
Management reviews these measures because they exclude changes in currency exchange rates and other factors that may distort
underlying business trends, thereby improving the comparability of PMI’s business performance between reporting periods. Furthermore,
PMI uses several of these measures in its management compensation program to promote internal fairness and a disciplined assessment of
performance against company targets. PMI discloses these measures to enable investors to view the business through the eyes of
management.
Non-GAAP measures used in this release should neither be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for the financial measures prepared in
accordance with U.S. GAAP.



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