Bloomberg直播讨论美国通胀、AI投资通胀压力与海军造船能力，未出现新的可交易公司级催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-18 10:00–10:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 209 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[10:00] This is Wall Street Week I'm David Westton bringing you stories of capitalism President tru wants to build what he a goal.
[10:00] theWhat will it take to get it done Are U shipbuilders up to the task.
[10:00] Governments stay the course this time plus it's one thing to charge $166 billion in tariffs.
[10:00] To give it all backThe continuing saga of president Trump's AEPA tariffs and whether humumpty dumpty can ever really be put back.
[10:00] To again and Blalair Ephron of Centerview partners takes us through what the AI rush is doing to a Americanican companies and the deal.
[10:00] 🎼They are trying to make. is there anything left for the rest of us, But we start with the global concern over inflation in a week that gave.
[10:01] New c numbers and chair Wsh's first testimony on capitol hill are we facing higher long term interest rates?
[10:01] If it comes from that AI rush, and what does it mean for Western economies if we can't get back to that magical 2% target?
[10:01] Rta messster was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of cleveland and now holds positions at both pen's warden school and Princeton.
[10:01] New inflation numbers out this week, which were not as bad as they had been in the past, but there has been a growing concern.
[10:01] I think about longer term inflation where are we Well, inflation's been above the 2% goal of the fed for over five years.
[10:01] We do have an inflation problem i think it remains to be seen whether where interest rates are today are enough, right to.
[10:01] inflation backI think the question that FOc is going to have to ask itself is, do we need to raise interest rates?
[10:02] In order to add restrictiveness to the economy to bring inflation down, and i think they don't know that yet.
[10:02] Tone is getting more that we're impatient with this inflation, but i think they're going to wait for some more data before they.
[10:02] Make up their mind that they're going to need to raise rates I think there's a good case for saying we need higher interest rates because it's hard to argue that where we are to,
[10:02] is very restrictive on the economy and particularly maybe because the headline number came down really largely because of fuel.
[10:02] That's right, I would say though, that overall the report was a pretty good report, even when you look at the components, I mean one of the things that have been.
[10:02] I think troubling me is if you look at core services excluding housing, and I think that's a key indicator.
[10:02] Look at that's been moving up right we had the inflation coming down last year even before the war in ir we saw that.
[10:02] That indicator the services component excluding housing starting to move back up, and i think that's got to be a concern for the F.
[10:03] See they've been forecasting inflation is going to come down and even without oil prices pushing it back up.
[10:03] You'll see that inflation has been pretty sticky and so raises the question for some of us why I mean, it's good to have the numbers know where the numbers are.
[10:03] What is really driving that because you have some sense of where it's going to go next Well, I think that's the question about how restrictive really is policy right monetary.
[10:03] Is what's going to determine whether demand is outpacing supply and therefore putting upward pressure on prices or.
[10:03] Whether it's restrictive enough and it's going to bring demand more into balance with supply the one place where we know demand is up.
[10:03] In AI and all that comes with it, all the investments being made are really at least stunning.
[10:03] Itself suggests that we probably are going to have continued inflation pressure for the foreseeable future well you certainly see prices for.
[10:04] ent that go into AI being elevated. and that is a source of pressure, upward pressure on inflation think question.
[10:04] Something that the new chair kevin mor has been talking about is eventually he believes that AI will increase productivity enough.
[10:04] That it becomes sort of a disinflationary force i don't think the timing really suggests that we're going to get there soon.
[10:04] Right now, it's an inflationary issue and the question is how long will that last and whether again that'll feed in.
[10:04] To other parts of the inflation and the consumption basket and therefore become a more of a broader inflation problem and we.
[10:04] Not just the cI numbers, but also chair Walsh with his first appearance on Capitol hill, where to my hearing said, we really are.
[10:04] Serious about this inflation and you recognize what you said, which is we've had it over 2% for a long time now, we've got to do something like that at the same time, maybe as you said,
[10:04] Eventually it might come back down how does he balance those two things and how long is eventually well, this is always a question for the fed.
[10:05] Certainly, i think it was great that he reiterated the commitment that the FOc and the Fed has to 2%.
[10:05] StI would say as someone who was at the F right, we were always committed to the 2% inflation target.
[10:05] And price stability and maximum employment, which are the goals that we've been given by congress so that isn't new.
[10:05] Qu is in making those tradeoffs between the two goals when there are trade offs, right, and I think they're going to have to take seriously.
[10:05] Whether their policy rate right now is in the right place or whether they're going to have to recalibrate that a bit higher to get inflation down.
[10:05] There's a dual mandate, it's both about price stability as well as employment, does the nature of the employment situation in the United States right now?
[10:05] Actually, give the fed if they wanted to use it some room to raise rate sum well know if you look at the labor market, it's an interesting.
[10:06] In the sense that it does appear to be pretty steady and in balance, I think what troubles people is when you look at the rate of pay.
[10:06] It's much slower than it had been in the past right it used to be that you'd say to keep the unemployment rate stable.
[10:06] You would need 150,000 jobs added per month now right that number is much much lower, right.
[10:06] Estimates are between 50 and 70,000 a month, so that's quite a bit lower and that's because the supply side of the labor market has changed so much.
[10:06] We don't need as much hiring to keep supply and demand in balance, so there's a lot of concern about the labor market in terms of those lower.
[10:06] Growth numbers, but actually it's been a pretty stable on the unemployment rate itself is low that doesn't mean that there aren't problems in the labor market.
[10:06] And in terms of different aspects of it, as probably you know from and your listeners know, right.
[10:06] College graduates have had to struggle to get jobs, part of it may be AI, part of it may be uncertainty about the economy, but a lot of what's happening.
[10:07] markett is on the supply side and not on the demand sides, and so yes, if the key concern right now in the economy is the inflation.
[10:07] Part of the mandate, not the labor side you mentioned the various task force five, I think there are that chair warsh is named.
[10:07] To deal with various aspects, I suppose it's sort of to be expected that when somebody comes in, they want to take a fresh look at things, were you surprised at how?
[10:07] Quickly and how extensively he's looking at some basic things at the F well, not really because you know, he was very vocal.
[10:07] Before he became chair about some of the things that he thought could be rethought right and so if you look at the task force.
[10:07] Communications are one of the balance sheet and he's been very vocal about the balance sheet and the use of quantitative easing he's been very vocal about trying to.
[10:07] Find data sources that are more micro oriented data sources and more forward looking to help the feded do its projection.
[10:08] So that it can have a better sense of where the economy is going and the last one, of course we just talked about AI, the labor market and he has.
[10:08] What I was happy to see is that the people he's chosen as leaders of those five areas.
[10:08] They really are experts and it's a combination of academics, central bankers, not only U. central bank.
[10:08] But abroad who have in central banking experience in terms of actually doing monetary policy and some business leaders so I think the.
[10:08] Of those people right and with the staff help from the fed, as he said, right, I think we're going to get some very thoughtful.
[10:08] Results from that and of course then the FOMC will have to take up some of those recommendations and debate them among themselves.
[10:08] They are the policymakers recently the projections based on the markets have changed a fair amount about the likelihood.
[10:08] rate increase, for example, in July it really has moved around a lot you've dealt with this for a long time.
[10:09] Have you've seen that before is this unusual that the expectations are changing fairly rapidly well, I think the economy has been changing, right?
[10:09] It's hard to read an economy where you had the tariff shock,, then we had the Iran war and the oil price shock.
[10:09] About what the trajectory of the economy is going to be and of course the on again off again, Iran war the sea.
[10:09] Fire right that adds to sort of uncertainty because oil prices are a significant input into a lot of parts of the economy so.
[10:09] That i would say that it's more volatility than what should be expected given the uncertainty we've been facing the economy.
[10:09] On top of that, of course, you have a new fed share coming in as you say for several years now we've had an inflation problem.
[10:09] One question is, will it solve itself or do they have to get more restrictive, but from your perspective, do you think that the degree of that?
[10:10] Problem has changed over the last six months, nine months is it a bigger problem today than it was six months ago I think it's a different problem, right?
[10:10] Six months ago, the focus was on how much of the tariffs we going to feed through to inflation.
[10:10] There is also some concern on some of the committee members about the labor market, I think the labor market is stabilized.
[10:10] They have a much better view of sort of the low payroll numbers, not necessarily meaning the labor market is weakening appreciably.
[10:10] I think there's recognition now that probably the tariff part of the inflation story is stabilized, right.
[10:10] To much more pass of that we do have the oil price shock now, which is a new shock, but I think there's more recognition of the cu.
[10:10] Of bad readings in terms of inflation moving in the wrong direction, that I think that's really what's changed the narrative about inflation.
[10:10] I think there's better recognition that, even though we're hoping that we're at a point where interest rates are enough to get inflation back down to 2%.
[10:11] That projection may not come to pass and i think that's what's changed.
[10:11] In Mississippi to see firsthand what it will take for president trump to get all those ships he needs for his so called golden fleet.
[10:12] The global.
[10:12] 🎼Econbook is being rewritten and the levers of power are moving in real time to see where the world is headed have to look the.
[10:12] I'm Ha Linda Arin in Singapore I'm Mioshi in Mumbi welcome to emerging the new economy podcast.
[10:12] 🎼Each month we dive deep into how the world's most exciting rising economies are shaping the global future join the.😊
[10:12] Sscribe to imagine on your favorite podcast platform today.
[10:12] Western countries, all of them are attacking funding to Africa, and some of these programs were supported by funding coming.
[10:12] From Western countries, like for human resources, for testing, for transportation.
[10:12] Of some and suddenly African countries has to think how to fund money.
[10:13] 🎼And to cover this gap, but it takes some time and I think the combination all all of these factors are free.
[10:13] 🎼communityWe value the support we got, and we are.
[10:13] 🎼the USAnd we think that if we continue to work together and there is no reason for the US not to work with Africa city.
[10:13] Africa CDC is the leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[10:13] 🎼From the world of politics to the world of business, Joe Matthew and Ka lines deliver news insight and.
[10:13] L two times a day every trading day, balance of power at one and5 Eastern only on Bomberg.
[10:13] 🎼Earning season is here the story has been so powerful B is first to break the numbers.
[10:14] than expected JohnAll right guys, I want to go to T keeping an eye on those earnings out of oracle Meta, Amazon, Microsoft Google.
[10:14] 🎼Mor insightsWe have seen a consumer that has been and continues to be resilient There' a lot of reason to believe that there's still.
[10:14] continuing coverage on bloomberg.
[10:14] This is a story about staying the course as america marks 250 years of independence president tru.
[10:14] For a much bigger na, what he calls a golden fleet, but to get from planning to doing requires more than just money.
[10:14] It requires workers, suppliers, shipyards, design discipline, and executing on the plan over the course of years.
[10:14] The very nature of naval combat faces disruption bloomberg scarletbe has the story.
[10:15] a class amphibious assault ship currently under construction for the U.S. Navy by Huntington Ingels Industries, also known as HII.
[10:15] It's of the flight deck of LH8, which is really the ship that takes Marines into the fight this deck will have between 12 and 20.
[10:15] F35 based on the configuration they park here so it's a very capable ship it's going to go to trials the end of this year.
[10:15] li it's just one of several complex naval ships being built at the ins shipyard in Pascalgoula, misspi.
[10:15] Where we got a tour from HI CEO Christopher Casner a ship only gets in your blood, there's just something so rewarding.
[10:15] About building a ship you know is going to go into service turning this steel into american naval power takes thousands of workers millions of parts.
[10:15] And years of labor under president donal trump, washington wants more ships fast approved.
[10:16] The Navy to begin the construction of two brand new, very large, the largest we've ever built battleships.
[10:16] The fastest the biggest and by far 100 times more powerful than any battleship ever built.
[10:16] His administration's plan calls for new combatants, auxiliaries, unmanned vessels, and a nuclear powered battleship.
[10:16] Currently, the US.S Navy operates roughly 290 battle force ships, well below the mandated 355 ships.
[10:16] The Navy is requesting $65.8 billion for their 2027 fiscal year18 billion4.
[10:16] More than it requested for 2026 for shipbuilders that translates into years of expected revenue.
[10:16] The administration is investing in the right places, there's a lot of momentum behind shipbuilding, we see improvements across both of our shipyards.
[10:16] And we need to continue to improve to support their requirements aside can the industry build a fleet at the speed and skill that?
[10:17] White House wants, especially when construction of the most complex Navy vessels is split between two big players.
[10:17] And HI HI provides 50% of the ships the United States fleet, we build nuclear vessels, aircraft carriers.
[10:17] Smarines in Newport New, vi, and then we build four classes of surface combatants here.
[10:17] laborShibuilding depends on skilled workers like welders, electricians and pipes more.
[10:17] 🎼A of these maritime workers are approaching retirement age, which is a problem, according to Shamus Daniels of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
[10:17] A major constraint is definitely the workforce challenge as shipyards are losing some of their more experienced workers.
[10:17] And they're being replaced by workers who have less experience, so ultimately that may contribute to some of the delays that.
[10:18] Navvy is seeing and producing ships as you're trying to train this workforce and really get them up to speed.
[10:18] WhatTo fill that gap, the na helps fund workforce initiatives while shipbuders develop their own pipeline.
[10:18] While general dynamics and H have apprenticeship programs's yard in Mississippi employs more than 110.
[10:18] Ma it one of the state's largest manufacturing employers in this building at the mta we also teach sheet metal.
[10:18] Joiners, pipe and whole insulators and also a lot of electrician training, being able to give some knowledge to them.
[10:18] They can take it with them out into the yard and better their career and also the company as well selling point for trainees.
[10:18] Paid training, a path to higher wages, and a career that does not always require a four year college degree.
[10:18] 🎼for a steady stream of skilled laborers is't the only challenge. The industry also needs to address supply chain issues on time contracts.
[10:19] Design changes and overall bureaucracy and that is after the money has come through we need to get funding on time to get the.
[10:19] Suppliers started what we're doing is working through a backlog that was put in place under really difficult conditions.
[10:19] And under a different economic environment, our two largest contracts were executed in 2019 and you think about what heck was going on in 20.
[10:19] No inflation, a more stable supply base, and those were put on a contract than COVID hit, and so we had the supply chain impact.
[10:19] Labor impacted made it very challenging so we're working through those, but the ships that are being put under contract now are putting under contract and schedule.
[10:19] Performance and schedule predictability, assuming what the supply chain can do right now, assuming the constraints we have in our shipyard.
[10:19] Advising policymakers, lawmakers, the na, what would be one policy recommendation that would increase U. ship output?
[10:20] Beyond time, make sure the funding arrives on time, make sure the supply chain is safe and can meet the requirements.
[10:20] And we don't get behind before we start that happens from time to time in shipfilling where you get late orders, they hold the schedule consistent with what they're.
[10:20] funding is just the beginning there's also the sequence of the money.
[10:20] And ship designs move through this system government shutdowns are a major hindrance to actual effective shipbuilding and making.
[10:20] 🎼that contracts and programs themselves are getting started. But I think there's a broader issue beyond the appropriations.
[10:20] ProThat comes down to the way that the Navy designs its ships as well. And this is about the requirements process.
[10:20] Navy goes through US. naval vessels are incredibly complex with combat systems, radar and other technology.
[10:20] And so that means that the ships themselves and their designs are incredibly complex, but given the timelines it takes to design.
[10:21] And build the requirements may evolve as the threat environment evolves over time what that ultimately means.
[10:21] 🎼That the Navy may start constructing ships before the design is finalized, and that can be a major issue, especially when you're.
[10:21] as you're building the every time we change your requirement, change a design, it costs us a lot both in.
[10:21] Dollars as well as in schedule so that's got to stop there isn't a day that i go to work that i'm not thinking.
[10:21] About what's going on here and in other places around the world where you're certain namiral mi mu served.
[10:21] Aval operations under President George W. Bush and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the first few years of the Obama administration.
[10:21] I think the biggest challenge that the Trump administration is going to have is execution and staying you know.
[10:22] Within budget and staying on schedule and holding people accountable so I think all the pieces are there now the question is.
[10:22] Can we execute one solution farm out the work today a1 na shipbuilding is at?
[10:22] The Navy wants to increase that to half by using qualified suppliers and smaller yards across the country to add capacity.
[10:22] We doubled our outsource capacity last year, another 30% this year, and we'll continue to increase that.
[10:22] Partner get qualified we're very careful to do it correctly because if you don't do it correctly, there's significant challenges with quality and schedule performance.
[10:22] You have to be mindful how you do it, but we will continue tosource that plan alsolies on building ships differently.
[10:22] Dig designs that can be spread out across multiple yardsSo this is thinking through how to design ships and submars.
[10:22] A way that different parts, different major segments of the ship can be constructed in different parts of the country, and then they can be combined.
[10:23] In one major shipyard.But what that'll ultimately allow the U to do is to leverage areas and smaller, potentially commercial.
[10:23] Shiyards or repair yards that can focus on these modules so then they can be combined and what that would ultimately mean is.
[10:23] Being able to distribute shipbuilding need and capacity across other areas of the country then's the contrast with.
[10:23] Our global peers are building ships China is achieving scale through a vast commercial and naval shipbuilding base while South Korea and Japan are setting.
[10:23] Standards for their speed, process discipline and production capacity of commercial ships I think it's good to always compare yourself against the competition.
[10:23] There are different shipbuilding processes, commercial ships are completely different from building a defense ship if you were to go into a Korean shipyard or commercial.
[10:23] It looks very different than this shipyard here, but if you go into the defense shipyard, it looks very similar to this actually their defense shipyards look more alike.
[10:24] ours in their commercial shipyard so I think it's a good comparison you always need to know what the competition is doing shipbuild big.
[10:24] elevated yearsI think the growth in China and the growth in their shipbuilding programs means that we're going to be building.
[10:24] For a while here and we need to continue to build we need to concentrate on that because Chinaa is building a big fleet and while chin's fleet is.
[10:24] Significant in numbers, they've got a ways to go from a quality standpoint and we need to pay attention to that as well.
[10:24] Even if america can build more ships, another question hangs over the fleet, what kinds of ships should be built?
[10:24] Ukraine and the Middle east make clear how relatively cheap drones and missiles can threaten expensive traditional vessels.
[10:24] AavV needs to pursue is what is generally referred to as a high low mix of capabilities.
[10:24] Vs that can perform exquisite tasks that are large and may be expensive in some cases, and combining those with cheaper.
[10:25] Or affordable forces that provide a different sort of effects, but you can actually buy them in mass the sea.
[10:25] Literally months on end, we were shooting down cheap drones with very expensive missiles, which is a losing game in the.
[10:25] 🎼ong run,But we were able to protect the ships. We know this is coming out there in terms of the drones.
[10:25] Marines onsTo reduce that danger and extend the fleet's reach, the Navy is investing in autonomous uncred vessels.
[10:25] And we have a romulus family assistance systems for surface vehicles so we saw it coming, it's really a force multiplier, it leads into their strategy.
[10:25] Their head strategy where they have manned and unmanned ships working together and they've had that strategy for a while, the technology just hasn't been there to support it.
[10:25] Now the technology has, the autonomy technologies has come into the place where the ships are more reliable and the integration between Manda and manned.
[10:26] Is more reliable but can the na learn from past mistakes and implement real changes to improve future fleets and sea warfare?
[10:26] What do companies like H need from the government to be the premier shipbuder we just need predictable orders we need a chance to be successful.
[10:26] We need to limit change and we need the orders on time i'm going to build whatever they want me to build's golden fleet signal a shift.
[10:26] But the real test will be whether America can build a fleet that's responsive and flexible enough for warfare that has constantly changed.
[10:26] All while staying the multi year course that it takes for ships to go from blueprint to naval battlefield.
[10:26] Up next on liberation day in april last year, president trump announced sweeping tariffs on.
[10:26] for much of the rest of the world now the supreme court says he has to give it all back, we look at how that is going.
[10:27] Do you mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nut jobss you know I've been called worse things than that.
[10:27] You think she owned the place?
[10:27] 23 and me I think is so incredibly valuable, we're coming back have that kind of detective.
[10:28] Story feel to it, you know, when you're hot on the trail of something, you know that it's very exciting What magazines were you reading as a kid?
[10:28] Reading magazines until I was in them you are on the cover of all of these Oh and there's many, many more but we stand up time.
[10:28] Why should people trust you I don't think anybody should trust any company or entity completely with any of it It's very uncomfortable.
[10:28] Artificial intelligence is this force that is far bigger than we are I want to build better businesses around.
[10:28] These the shock will never wear off So you're brother and sister running one of the most powerful companies in the world.
[10:28] And you argue who wins one the way I could see AI being banned.
[10:28] Blocked is if something really went wrong and if something really went wrong, then maybe it deserves to be So is it paradise ahead or Gatica?
[10:28] Maybe somewhere in the middle.
[10:29] Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business markets.
[10:29] Econs, and more than what you need to know it's what you need to think about the forefront of the world.
[10:29] 🎼Best stories and we're here where the action starts in Sydney and in Tokyo yet ahead as the global trading day begins.😊
[10:29] 🎼The Asia trade weekdays only on Bloberg I embedded in every aspect of our lives and that revolution.