Bloomberg周末节目讨论美国造舰计划、AI通胀与宏观利率压力

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-18 18:00–18:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 209 段
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[18:00] This is Wall Street Week I'm David Westton bringing you stories of capitalism president tru wants to build what he calls a golden.
[18:00] 🎼the U NavyWhat will it take to get it done Are U shipbuils up to the task and the government.
[18:00] Stay the course this time Plus, it's one thing to charge $166 billion in tariffs another.
[18:00] Give it all back the continuing saga of president tru's iEPA tariffs and whether humumpty dumpumpty can ever really be put back together.
[18:00] Again, and Blalair Ephron of CenterVi Part takes us through what the AI rush is doing to American companies and the deals they are trying.
[18:00] 🎼Is there anything left for the rest of us, but we start with a global concern over inflation in a week that gave us new.
[18:01] I and chairsh's first testimony on capitalitol Hill are we facing higher long term interest rates?
[18:01] From that AI rush and what does it mean for Western economies if we can't get back to that magical 2% target.
[18:01] Was president of the Federal reserveserve Bank of cleland and now holds positions at both pen's warden school and Princeton.
[18:01] Inflation numbers out this week, which were not as bad as they had been in the past, but there has been a growing concern, I think.
[18:01] About longer term inflation where are we Well, inflation's been above the 2% goal of the fed for over five years so we do have.
[18:01] AnInI think it remains to be seen whether where interest rates are today are enough right to actually move.
[18:01] Inflation back down, I think the question that FOc is going to have to ask itself is, do we need to raise interest rates a bit?
[18:02] In order to add restrictiveness to the economy to bring inflation down, and i think they don't know that yet, I think the tone.
[18:02] Getting more that we werere impatient with this inflation, but i think they're going to wait for some more data before they make up their.
[18:02] Md that they're going to need to raise rates I think there's a good case for saying we need higher interest rates because it's hard to argue that where we are today is very.
[18:02] Restrictive on the economy and particularly maybe because the headline number came down really largely because of fuel.
[18:02] Right, I would say though, that overall the report was a pretty good report, even when you look at the components, I mean, one of the things that have been, I think.
[18:02] Tubling me is if you look at core services excluding housing, and I think that's a key indicator to look at.
[18:02] That's been moving up right we had the inflation coming down last year even before the war in iran, we saw that indicate.
[18:02] Or the services component excluding housing starting to move back up and i think that's got to be a concern for the FMc.
[18:03] You know, they've been forecasting inflation is going to come down and even without oil prices pushing it back up, you still see that.
[18:03] inflation has been pretty sticky and so raises the question for some of us why I mean it's good to have the numbers know where the numbers are, but then you want to know.
[18:03] because you have some sense of where it's going to go next Well, I think that's the question about how restrictive really is policy right monetary policy.
[18:03] Is what's going to determine whether demand is outpacing supply and therefore putting upward pressure on prices or right?
[18:03] It's restrictive enough and it's going to bring demand more into balance with supply the one place where we know demand is up is in.
[18:03] I and all that comes with it, all the investments being made are really to me, at least stunning in and of itself.
[18:03] est that we're probably going to have continued inflation pressure for the foreseeable future Well, you certainly see prices for components.
[18:04] Go into AI being elevated and that is a source of pressure, upward pressure on inflation I think the question this is something that.
[18:04] The new chair kevin morsh has been talking about is eventually he believes that AI will increase productivity enough.
[18:04] It becomes sort of a disinflationary force i don't think the timing really suggests that we're going to get there soon, i do think right now.
[18:04] It's an inflationary issue and the question is how long will that last and whether again that'll feed into other.
[18:04] Parts of the inflation and the consumption basket and therefore become a more of a broader inflation problem and this week we had not just.
[18:04] CPI members, but also chair Walsh with his first appearance on Capitol Hill, where to my hearing said, we really are serious.
[18:04] and recognize what you said, which is we've had it over 2% for a long time now, we've got to do something like that at the same time, maybe as you said eventually.
[18:04] It might come back down how does he balance those two things and how long is eventually well, this is always a question for the fed and certainly.
[18:05] I think it was great that he reiterated the commitment that the FOc and the fed has a 2% price stability.
[18:05] I would say as someone who was at the fed, we were always committed to the 2% inflation target.
[18:05] Stability and maximum employment, which are the goals that we've been given by Congressgress so that isn't new and the real question.
[18:05] I in making those trade offs between the two goals when there are trade offs, right when I think they're going to have to take seriously.
[18:05] Whether their policy rate right now is in the right place or whether they're going to have to recalibrate that a bit higher to get inflation down there's a.
[18:05] It's both about price stability, as well as employment. Does the nature of the employment situation in the United States right now.
[18:05] Give the fed if they wanted to use it some room to raise some well if you look at the labor market, it's an interesting labor market.
[18:06] It does appear to be pretty steady and I think what troubles people is when you look at the rate of payroll.
[18:06] It's much slower than it had been in the past right it used to be that you'd say to keep the unemployment rate stable.
[18:06] 150,000 jobs added per month now right that number is much much lower right many estimates.
[18:06] Between 50 and 70,000 a month so that's quite a bit lower and that's because the supply side of the labor market has changed so much so.
[18:06] It meant much hiring to keep supply and demand in balance, so there's a lot of concern about the labor market in terms of those lower growth numbers.
[18:06] But actually it's been a pretty stable on the unemployment rate itself is low that doesn't mean that there aren't problems in the labor market.
[18:06] Of different aspects of it, as probably you know from and your listeners know,.
[18:06] ates have had to struggle to get jobs, part of it may be AI, part of it may be uncertainty about the economy, but a lot of what's happening in the labor market.
[18:07] On the supply side and not on the demand side, and so yes, if the key concern right now in the economy is the inflation part of the.
[18:07] the labor sideYou mentioned the various task force five I think there are that chair wsh is named to.
[18:07] Various aspects, I suppose it's sort of to be expected that when somebody comes in, they want to take a fresh look at things, werere you surprised at how quickly?
[18:07] And how extensively he's looking at some basic things at the F Well, not really because you know, he was very vocal before.
[18:07] He became chair about some of the things that he thought could be rethought right and so if you look at the task force, there's one on communication.
[18:07] Patients are one of the balance sheet and he's been very vocal about the balance sheet and the use of quantitative easing, he's been very vocal about trying to find data.
[18:07] Sources that are more micro oriented data sources and more forward looking to help the feded do its projections so that.
[18:08] Can have a better sense of where the economy is going and the last one, of course, we just talked about AI, the labor market, and he has particular views.
[18:08] thatWhat i was happy to see is that the people he's chosen as leaders of those five areas.
[18:08] Re are experts and it's a combination of academics, central bankers, not only U.. central bankers but.
[18:08] Broad who have been central banking experience in terms of actually doing monetary policy and some business leaders, so I think the combination of those.
[18:08] People right and with the staff help from the feded, as he said, right, I think we're going to get some very thoughtful.
[18:08] Results from that and of course then the FOMc will have to take up some of those recommendations and debate them among themselves because they are the.
[18:08] AymakersRecently the projections based on the markets have changed a fair amount about the likelihood.
[18:08] Rate increase, for example, in July it really has moved around a lot you've dealt with this for a long time, is that typical have you seen that?
[18:09] Before is this unusual the expectations are changing fairly rapidly Well, I think the economy has been changing, right?
[18:09] hard to read an economy where you had the tariff shock, right, then we had the Iran war and the oil price shock. so there's a lot of uncertainty about what.
[18:09] The trajectory of the economy is going to be and of course the on again off again, Iran war, the ceasefire.
[18:09] That adds to sort of uncertainty because oil prices are a significant input into a lot of parts of the economy so'm not sure that.
[18:09] Say that it's more volatility than what should be expected given the uncertainty we've been facing the economy and then layered on top of it.
[18:09] of course, you have a new fed share coming in as you say for several years now, we've had an inflation problem and one question.
[18:09] Will it solve itself or do they have to get more restrictive, but from your perspective, do you think that the degree of that problem has?
[18:10] Change over the last six months, nine months is it a bigger problem today than it was six months ago I think it's a different problem, right I think six months.
[18:10] ago, the focus was on how much of the tariffs we going to feed through to inflation and remember.
[18:10] There's some concerns on some of the committee members right about the labor market, I think the labor market is stabilized and I think they have.
[18:10] Much better view of sort of the low payroll numbers, not necessarily meaning the labor market is weakening appreciably.
[18:10] I think there's recognition now that probably the tariff part of the inflation story is stabilized right not going much.
[18:10] Pass through that, we do have the oil price shock now, which is a new shock, but I think there's more recognition of the accumulation of.
[18:10] Bad readings in terms of inflation moving in the wrong direction that I think that's really what's changed the narrative about inflation.
[18:10] Re that even though we're hoping that we're at a point where interest rates are enough to get inflation back down to 2%.
[18:11] That projection may not come to pass and i think that's what's changed go.
[18:11] ipTo see firsthand what it will take for president trump to get all those ships he needs for his so called golden fleet.
[18:12] Earning season is here.
[18:12] The story has been so powerful Bomberg is first to break the numbers blackstone reporting a larger than expected John all right.
[18:12] I want to to keep an eye on those earnings out of Oracles MeA, Amazon, Microsoft, Google with the smartest insights.
[18:12] seen a consumer that has been and continues to be resilient there's a lot of reason to believe that there's still a huge, huge amount of growth here.
[18:12] 🎼today's CFs are reshaping the sea suite.
[18:12] chief future officer shines a spotlight on these dynamic leaders what's the skill set that you would advise every aspiring CFfoO to develop?
[18:12] I think I know legal skills are important, obviously you need to like the numbers if you don't like numbers, then don't go into finance, you know?
[18:12] Sort of like a recipe for disasters, you know like numbers, not only for the CFO, but also the company's management.
[18:13] Comic and the collaborationI spent a lot of time figuring out how to take the complex and make it simple.
[18:13] Finding a way to be able to communicate that both internally and externally I think it's relationships, whether it's working with investors, bankers.
[18:13] With the senior management team, with the board, having your head down is one thing as a finance person, but keeping your ears open is super important as well.
[18:13] That all of that is what kind of builds out being a successful CFO what's chief future officer only on bloomberg?
[18:13] What is going to be the consequence for U.S. markets we have seeing bonus gainss across European equity markets?
[18:13] Take a look at how we're faring when it comes to Asia markets.
[18:13] 🎼is embedded in every aspect of our lives and that revolution is playing out in real time from finance to defense tech AI.
[18:14] 🎼To entertainment from the road to the stars, Bomberg is bringing you the stories of companies and people that are pushing tech to new.
[18:14] 🎼and the politics reshaping global tech markets I'm Eded Lodlow live in San Francisco.😊
[18:14] 🎼this is Bloomberg Tech every weekday only on Bloomberg Tele.😊
[18:14] This is a story about staying the course as america marks 250 years of independence, president trump has plans for a.
[18:14] Much bigger na, what he calls a golden fleet, but to get from planning to doing requires more than just money.
[18:14] It requires workers, suppliers, shipyards, design discipline and executing on the plan over the course of years even the.
[18:14] Nature of naval combat faces disruption bloomberglet has the story.
[18:15] hibious assault ship currently under construction for the U.S. Navy by Huntington Ingels Industries, also known as HII.
[18:15] It're the flight deck of lH8, which is really the ship that takes Marines into the fight this deck will have between 12 and 20.
[18:15] F35 based on the configuration they park here yeah, so it's a very capable ship it's going to go to trials the end of this year and deliver next.
[18:15] It's just one of several complex naval ships being built at the Ins Shiyard in Pascalgoula, Mississippi.
[18:15] We got a tour from hi CEO christopher Casner ship only gets in your blood, there's just something so rewarding about.
[18:15] Building a ship you know is going to go into service turning this steel into american naval power takes thousands of workers millions of parts and.
[18:15] Under president don Trump Washington wants more ships approved a plan for the.
[18:16] To begin the construction of two brand new, very large, the largest we've ever built battleships, they'll be the fastest.
[18:16] It's the biggest and by far, 100 times more powerful than any battleship ever built.
[18:16] His administration's plan calls for new combatants, auxiliaries, unmanned vessels, and a nuclear powered battleship.
[18:16] Currently, the US. Navy operates roughly 290 battle force ships, well below the mandated 355 ships.
[18:16] I requesting $65.8 billion for their 2027 fiscal year that's about $18 billion or almost 40% more.
[18:16] Than it requested for 2026 for shipbuilders that translates into years of expected revenue.
[18:16] I investing in the right places there's a lot of momentum behind shipbuilding we see improvements across both of our shipyards.
[18:16] Ne to continue to improve to support their requirements momentum aside can the industry build a fleet at the speed and skill that this white house?
[18:17] 🎼especially when construction of the most complex Navy vessels is split between two big players general dynamics and.
[18:17] HII HII provides 50% of the ships to the United States fleet, we build nuclear vessels, aircraft carriers in summarymarine.
[18:17] In newport New news, virginia I we built four classes of surface combatants here.
[18:17] I labor shipbuilding depends on skilled workers like welders, electricians and pipes today more than a quarter of these.
[18:17] Aritime workers are approaching retirement age, which is a problem according to Shamus Daniels of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
[18:17] A major constraint is definitely the workforce challenge as shipyards are losing some of their more experienced workers.
[18:17] Being replaced by workers who have less experience. So ultimately, that may contribute to some of the delays that the Navy is.
[18:18] And producing ships as you're trying to train this workforce and really get them up to speed again, I'm missing my 45 here.
[18:18] To to fill that gap, the na helps fund workforce initiatives while ship buildilders develop their own pipelines.
[18:18] Both general Dynamics and HI have apprenticeship programs, HI's yard in Mississippi employs more than 11,000 people.
[18:18] Making it one of the state's largest manufacturing employers in this building at the mta we also teach sheet metal.
[18:18] Pippe and whole insulators, and also a lot of electrician training being able to give some knowledge to them so that way they can take.
[18:18] Get with them out into the yard and better their career and also the company as well selling point for trainees.
[18:18] Training a path to higher wages and a career that does not always require a four year college degree.
[18:18] 🎼St stream of skilled laborers is not the only challenge the industry also needs to address supply chain issues on time contracts.
[18:19] ea that is after the money has come through need to get funding on time to get the.
[18:19] What we're doing is working through a backlog that was put in place under really difficult conditions.
[18:19] Under a different economic environment, our two largest contracts were executed in 2019. And you think about what he was going on in 2019.
[18:19] Inflation, a more stable supply base, and those were put in a contract than COVID hit, and so we had the supply chain impacted labor.
[18:19] It made it very challenging so we're working through those, but the ships that are being put under contract now are pretty under contract and schedule perform.
[18:19] And schedule predictability, assuming what the supply chain can do right now, assuming the constraints we have in our shipyard.
[18:19] Policymakers, lawmakers, the na, what would be one policy recommendation that would increase us. ship output?
[18:20] Beyond time, make sure the funding arrives on time, make sure the supply chain is safe and can meet the requirements.
[18:20] Get behind before we start that happens from time to time in shipbuing where you get lay orders, theyhold the schedule consistent with what the initial.
[18:20] Se funding is just the beginning theres also the sequence of how the money contracts and.
[18:20] DeMove through this systemGment shutdowns are a major hindrance to actual effective shipbuilding and making sure that.
[18:20] Contracts and programs themselves are getting started, but I think there's a broader issue beyond the appropriations and funding process.
[18:20] That comes down to the way that the Navy designs its ships as well, and this is about the requirements process that the Navy goes.
[18:20] Through US. naval vessels are incredibly complex with combat systems, radar and other technology.
[18:20] And so that means that the ships themselves and their designs are incredibly complex, but given the timelines it takes to design and build.
[18:21] These the requirements may evolve as the threat environment evolves over time. What that ultimately means is that.
[18:21] 🎼Navyavvy may start constructing ships before the design is finalized, and that can be a major issue, especially when you're changing the design.
[18:21] As you're building the shipEvery time we change your requirement, change your design, it costs us a lot both in.
[18:21] As well as in schedule so that's got to stop There isn't a day that I go to work that I'm not thinking about.
[18:21] Going on here and in other places around the world where you're serving Navy amiral mi muin served as of naval opera.
[18:21] Under President Georgege w. Bush and chairman of the joint Chiefs of staff in the first few years of the obama administration.
[18:21] The biggest challenge that the Trump administration is going to have is execution and staying within.
[18:22] And staying on schedule and holding people accountable. So I think all the pieces are there. now the question is can.
[18:22] One the work today only a10 of Navy shipbuilding is done at distributed site.
[18:22] The Navy wants to increase that to half by using qualified suppliers and smaller yards across the country to add capacity.
[18:22] We doubled our outsource capacity last year, another 30% this year, and we'll continue to increase that as the partners get.
[18:22] QuWe're very careful to do it correctly because if you don't do it correctly, there's significant challenges with quality and schedule performance.
[18:22] But we will continue toThat plan also relies on building ships differently more modular.
[18:22] Digital designs that can be spread out across multiple yards so this is thinking through how to design ships and submarines in a way.
[18:22] Different parts, different major segments of the ship can be constructed in different parts of the country, and then they can be combined in one.
[18:23] Major shipyard but what thatll ultimately allow the U to do is to leverage areas and smaller potentially commercial shipyard.
[18:23] Or repair yards that can focus on these modules so then they can be combined. And what that would ultimately mean is being able.
[18:23] To distribute shipbuilding need and capacity across other areas of the country then there's the contrast with how our global.
[18:23] ers are building ships China is achieving scale through a vast commercial and naval shipbuilding base, while South Korea and Japan are setting standards.
[18:23] For their speed, process discipline and production capacity of commercial ships i think it's good to always compare yourself against the competition.
[18:23] hibuilding ships are completely different from building a defense ship if you were to go into a Korean shipyard or commercial looks.
[18:23] Different than this shipyard here if you go into the defense shipyard, it looks very similar to this, actually their defense shipyards look more alike than ours.
[18:24] their commercial shipyard, so I think it's a good comparison you always need to know what the competition is doing China's shipbuilding surge is a big reason.
[18:24] I think the growth in Chinaa and the growth in their shipbuilding programs means that we're going to be building ships for.
[18:24] And we need to concentrate on that because China' is building a big fleet and while Chinaa's fleet is significant.
[18:24] In they've got a ways to go from a quality standpoint and we need to pay attention to that as well.
[18:24] If America can build more ships, another question hangs over the fleet. what kinds of ships should be built the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine?
[18:24] In the Middle East make clear how relatively cheap drones and missiles can threaten expensive traditional vessels the na needs.
[18:24] Pursue is what is generally referred to as a high low mix of capabilities so having your larger vessel.
[18:24] That can perform exquisite tasks that are large and may be expensive in some cases and combining those with cheaper, more affordable.
[18:25] For that provide a different sort of effects, but you can actually buy them in mass the sea for.
[18:25] Months on end, we were shooting down cheap drones with very expensive missiles, which is a losing game in the long run.
[18:25] But we were able to protect the ships, we know this is coming out there in terms of the drones.
[18:25] Mars on board these ships to reduce that danger and extend the fleet's reach, the Navy is investing in autonomous uncrewed vessels.
[18:25] AndWe have amuluous family assistance systems for surface vehicles, so we saw it coming, it's really a force multiplier, it leads into their strategy of their head.
[18:25] Strategy where they have manned and unmanned ships working together and they've had that strategy for a while the technology just hasn't been there to support it.
[18:25] Technology has the autonomy technologies come into the place where the ships are more reliable and the integration between manda and manned is more.
[18:26] ableBut can the na learn from past mistakes and implement real changes to improve future fleets and see warfare?
[18:26] Companies like h need from the government to be the premier shipbuilder we just need predictable orders we need a chance to be successful.
[18:26] The and we the orders on time i'm going to build whatever they want me to build signal a shift.
[18:26] But the real test will be whether amer can build a fleet that's responsive and flexible enough for warfare that is constantly changing.
[18:26] All while staying the multiy course that it takes for ships to go from blueprint to naval battlefield.
[18:26] Up next on liberation day in april last year, president trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from.
[18:26] Much of the rest of the world now the Supremepreme court says he has to give it all back, we look at how that is going.
[18:27] TheWorld's most powerful investors don't bring a bell. they quietly reshape entire industriesping.
[18:27] 🎼The dealmakerr playbook where power and billions of dollars change hands every day from private equity and credit to venture capital in M&A.
[18:27] 🎼We bring you the inside scoop on the biggest deals and debates, plus exclusive conversations with finance's ultimate insiders great scoop on.😊
[18:28] You've been reporting about an activist investor coming up and trying to shake things at what's the latest we'd been hearing that there was going to be an activist at some point the question was who.
[18:28] 🎼I a convergence of technology and national security United States is a big country. We're playing in the northeast. That's an economy as big as the United Kingdom.
[18:28] This is a really interesting space to watch, we're expecting more consolidation as this is Bloomberg deals at Bloomberg invest I want to talk about the.
[18:28] 🎼environmentThis is a moment in time We'll see how long we're here. It's far too early to call There is an under investmentvestment in what's going.
[18:28] in private markets, because everyone's looking for additional AI cloud capacity and it's very tough to build.
[18:28] Everybody wants to get things going and the IPO market is just one symptom of it is an early indicator of what we're going to see in the M&A market.
[18:28] 🎼Scarlet food, who's taking a closer look at drone companies with ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. there's renewed investor appetite for new names in the space.
[18:28] Exent reporting, I'm Danny Berger and this is Bloomberg deals every Wednesday at no Eastern only on Bloomberg television.
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