彭博周末节目讨论美国海军扩舰、AI投资与通胀压力，未披露新的公司级订单或可交易增量

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-18 22:00–22:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 211 段
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[22:00] Bloomberg.
[22:00] This is Wall Street Week I'm David Westton bringing you stories of capitalism president trump wants to build what he calls a golden fleet.
[22:00] To transform the U.S Navy what will it take to get it done are U.S. shipbuilders up to the task and can the government stay?
[22:00] The course this time plus it's one thing to charge $166 billion in tariffs it's quite another to give it.
[22:00] The continuing saga of president tru's aEPA tariffs and whether humumpptty dumpumpty can ever really be put back together again.
[22:00] And Blalair Efron of Centerview Part takes us through what the AI rush is doing to american companies and the deals they are trying to make.
[22:00] Is there anything left for the rest of us, but we start with a global concern over inflation in a week that gave us new CPI.
[22:01] umbers and chair Wsh's first testimony on capitol Hill are we facing higher long term interest rates, how much of it comes from?
[22:01] AI and what does it mean for Western economies if we can't get back to that magical 2% target.
[22:01] As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of cleve and now holds positions at both pens warden school and Princeton.
[22:01] Fflation numbers out this week, which were not as bad as they had been in the past, but there has been a growing concern, I think.
[22:01] L term inflation where are we Well, inflation's been above the 2% goal of the fed for over five years, so we do have an.
[22:01] I think it remains to be seen whether where interest rates are today are enough to actually move inflation.
[22:01] I think the question that FOc is going to have to ask itself is, do we need to raise interest rates a bit?
[22:02] In order to add restrictiveness to the economy to bring inflation down, and i think they don't know that yet, i think the tone is getting.
[22:02] MoreThat we're impatient with this inflation, but i think they're going to wait for some more data before they make up their mind.
[22:02] If they're going to need to raise rates, I think there's a good case for saying we need higher interest rates because it's hard to argue that where we are today is very risk.
[22:02] economyAnd particularly maybe because the headline number came down really largely because of fuel that's right.
[22:02] I would say though, that overall the report was a pretty good report, even when you look at the components, I mean, one of the things that have been, I think, troubled.
[22:02] I if you look at core services excluding housing, and I think that's a key indicator to look at.
[22:02] been moving up right we had the inflation coming down last year even before the war in ir, we saw that indicator.
[22:02] The services component excluding housing starting to move back up, and I think that's got to be a concern for the FOC.
[22:03] They've been forecasting inflation is going to come down and even without oil prices pushing it back up, you still see that.
[22:03] And so raises the question for some of us why, I mean, it's good to have the numbers know where the numbers are. but then you want to know what is really.
[22:03] because you have some sense of where it's going to go next well, I think that's the question about how restrictive really is policy right monetary policy.
[22:03] Is what's going to determine whether demand is outpacing supply and therefore putting upward pressure on prices or.
[22:03] Restrict enough and it's going to bring demand more into balance with supply the one place where we know demand is up is in ai.
[22:03] And all that comes with it all the investments being made are really least stunning that in and of itself suggest.
[22:03] That we probably are going to have continued inflation pressure for the foreseeable future well, you certainly see prices for components that go.
[22:04] Into AI being elevated and that is a source of pressure, upward pressure on inflation. I think the question this is something that the.
[22:04] Chair kevin mor has been talking about is eventually he believes that aI will increase productivity enough.
[22:04] Comes sort of a disinflationary forceI don't think the timing really suggests that we're going to get there soon i do think right now.
[22:04] It's an inflationary issue and the question is how long will that last and whether again that'll feed into other parts.
[22:04] PartOf the inflation and the consumption basket and therefore become a more of a broader inflation problem and this week we had not just the.
[22:04] I never, but also chair Walsh with his first appearance on Capitol hill where to my hearing said, we really are serious about this.
[22:04] And you recognize what you said, which is we've had it over 2% for a long time now, we've got to do something like that at the same time, maybe as you said eventually.
[22:04] Might come back down how does he balance those two things and how long is eventually well, this is always a question for the fed and certainly.
[22:05] I think it was great that he reiterated the commitment that the FOC and the Fed has to 2% price stability.
[22:05] I would say as someone who was at the F right, we were always committed to the 2% inflation target that's not and priced.
[22:05] And maximum employment, which are the goals that we've been given by congress so that isn't new and the real question is.
[22:05] In making those trade offs between the two goals when there are trade offs, right, and I think they're going to have to take seriously.
[22:05] Their policy rate right now is in the right place or whether they're going to have to recalibrate that a bit higher to get inflation down as you there's a dual mandate.
[22:05] It's both about price stability as well as employment. does the nature of the employment situation in the United States right now actually.
[22:05] Give the fed if they wanted to use it some room to raise rate some Well, you know, if you look at the labor market, it's an interesting labor market in the sense.
[22:06] It does appear to be pretty steady and inbalance I think what troubles people is when you look at the rate of payroll employment.
[22:06] It's much slower than it had been in the past right it used to be that you'd say to keep the unemployment rate stable you would need.
[22:06] 150,000 jobs added per month now, right that number is much much lower, right many estimates are.
[22:06] Between 50 and 70,00 month, so that's quite a bit lower, and that's because the supply side of the labor market has changed so much.
[22:06] Much hiring to keep supply and demand in balance, so there's a lot of concern about the labor market in terms of those lower growth numbers.
[22:06] Actually it's been a pretty stave on the unemployment rate itself is low that doesn't mean that there aren't problems in the labor market.
[22:06] Of different aspects of it, as probably you know from and your listeners know, young college graduates.
[22:06] Have had to struggle to get jobs, part of it maybe AI, part of it may be uncertainty about the economy, but a lot of what's happening in the labor markets is on this.
[22:07] Sly side, not on the demand side, and so yes, if the key concern right now in the economy is the inflation part of the mandate.
[22:07] Not the labor side you mentioned the various task force five, I think there are that chair warsh is named to deal with.
[22:07] I suppose it's sort of to be expected that when somebody comes in, they want to take a fresh look at things, were you surprised at how quickly.
[22:07] How extensively he's looking at some basic things at the F well not really because you know, he was very vocal before he.
[22:07] Cain chair about some of the things that he thought could be rethought right and so if you look at the task force, there's one on communication.
[22:07] one on the balance sheet and he's been very vocal about the balance sheet and the use of quantitative easing he's been very vocal about trying to find data sources.
[22:07] That are more micro oriented data sources and more forward looking to help the Fed do its projections so that it can.
[22:08] a better sense of where the economy is going and the last one of course we just talked about AI, the labor market, and he has particular views on that.
[22:08] What i was happy to see is that the people he've chosen as leaders of those five areas.
[22:08] And it's a combination of academics, central bankers, not only U. central bankers, but abroad.
[22:08] Who have been central banking experience in terms of actually doing monetary policy and some business leaders, so I think the combination of those.
[22:08] PeopleRight, and with the staff help from the Fed, as he said, right, I think we're going to get some very thoughtful.
[22:08] Results from that and of course, then the FOMC will have to take up some of those recommendations and debate them among themselves because they are the policy.
[22:08] ItRecently, the projections based on the markets have changed a fair amount about the likelihood.
[22:08] Rate increase, for example, in July that really has moved around a lot you've dealt with this for a long time, is that typical have you seen that before?
[22:09] Is this unusual that the expectations are changing fairly rapidly Well, I think the economy has been changing right hard to.
[22:09] an economy where you had the tariff shock right, then we had the Iran war and the oil price shock so there's a lot of uncertainty about what the.
[22:09] jecty of the economy is going to be, and of course the on again off again, Iran war, the ceasefire.
[22:09] That adds to sort of uncertainty because oil prices are a significant input into a lot of parts of the economy, so i'm not sure that i would say.
[22:09] That it's more volatility than what should be expected given the uncertainty we've been facing the economy and then layered on top of that.
[22:09] Of course you have a new fed share coming in as you say for several years now we've had an inflation problem and one question is.
[22:09] Will it solve itself or do they have to get more restrictive, but from your perspective, do you think that the degree of that problem has changed?
[22:10] Over the last six months, nineIs it a bigger problem today than it was six months agoI think it's a different problem, right I think six months ago.
[22:10] The focus was on how much of the tariffs we going to feed through to inflation and remember there was also.
[22:10] Some concerns on some of the committee members right about the labor market. I think the labor market is stabilized, and I think they have a much.
[22:10] Better view of sort of the low payroll numbers, not necessarily meaning the labor market is weakening appreciably.
[22:10] There's recognition now that probably the tariff part of the inflation story is stabilized right, there's not going to be much more power.
[22:10] Or that we do have the oil price shock now, which is a new shock, but i think there's more recognition of the accumulation of.
[22:10] readings in terms of inflation moving in the wrong direction that I think that's really what's changed the narrative about inflation.
[22:10] Even though we're hoping that we're at a point where interest rates are enough to get inflation back down to 2%.
[22:11] Projection may not come to pass and I think that's what's changed coming up we go to Pascagoula miss.
[22:11] To see firsthand what it will take for president Trumpmp to get all those ships he needs for his so called golden fleet.
[22:12] 🎼Earning season is here.
[22:12] powerful B is first to break the numbers blackstone reporting a larger than expected.
[22:12] 🎼Go keeping an eye on those earnings out of met Amazon Microsoft Google with the smartest insights we have.
[22:12] See a consumer that has been and continues to be resilient there's a lot of reason to believe that there's still a huge, huge amount of growth here.
[22:12] ing coverage on Bloberg.
[22:12] 🎼countries, all of them are cutting funding to Africa, and some of these programs were supported by funding coming from.
[22:12] Western countries like for human resources, for testing, for transportation of samples.
[22:12] And suddenly, African countries have to think how to fund money.
[22:13] 🎼You cover this gap, but it takes some time and I think the commitment of all all of these factors are fueling this.
[22:13] 🎼Trust that we see at community level, we value the support we got and we are still getting from the.
[22:13] 🎼And we think that if we continue to work together and there is no reason for the US not to work for free CDC.
[22:13] 🎼A is the leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[22:13] 🎼morning good morning. This is. We back to the opening trade. Itberg money. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street.
[22:13] Welcome to balance of power you're watching Bloberg welcome to Bloberg this weekend this is Bloomberg television.
[22:13] 🎼Embedded in every aspect of our lives and that revolution is playing out in real time, from finance to defense tech, AI.
[22:14] 🎼To entertainment from the road to the stars, Loomberg is bringing you the stories of companies and people that are pushing tech to new frontier.
[22:14] 🎼And the politics reshaping global tech markets I'm Ed Lodlow live in San Francisco.😊
[22:14] 🎼this is Bloomberg Tech every weekday only on Bloomberg television.😊
[22:14] This is a story about staying the course as america marks 250 years of independence, president trump has plans for a much.
[22:14] Bigger na, what he calls a golden fleet, but to get from planning to doing requires more than just money.
[22:14] Workers, suppliers, shipyards, design discipline and executing on the plan over the course of years even the very nature.
[22:14] Of nasberglet has the story.
[22:15] This assault ship currently under construction for the U.S. Navy by Huntington Ingels Industries, also known as HII.
[22:15] The flight deck of lH8, which is really the ship that takes marines into the fight this deck will have between 12 and 20.
[22:15] 35 based on the configuration park here yeah so it's a very capable ship it's going to go to trials the end of this year and deliver next year.
[22:15] It's just one of several complex naval ships being built at the ingles Shipyard in Pascalgoula, Mississippi go.
[22:15] From ce christopher only gets blood there's something so rewarding about.
[22:15] you going to into service turning this steel into American naval power takes thousands of workers millions of parts and years.
[22:15] Of labor under president don trump washington wants more ships fast approved a plan for the na.
[22:16] Be the construction of two brand new, very large, the largest we've ever built battleships that'll be the fastest.
[22:16] gAnd by far, 100 times more powerful than any battleship ever built.
[22:16] His administration's plan calls for new combatants, auxiliaries, unmanned vessels, and a nuclear powered battleship.
[22:16] Current, the US Navy operates roughly 290 battle force ships well below the mandated 355 ships.
[22:16] Questing $65.8 billion for their 2027 fiscal year, that's about $18 billion or almost 40% more.
[22:16] T it requested for 2026 for shipbuilders that translates into years of expected revenue.
[22:16] Is investing in the right places there's a lot of momentum behind shipbuilding we see improvements across both of our shipyards and we need to.
[22:16] Contue to improve to support their requirements momentum aside can the industry build a fleet at the speed and skill that this white house wants?
[22:17] Especially when construction of the most complex Navy vessels is split between two big players dynamics and.
[22:17] HII provides 50% of the ships the United States fleet, we build nuclear vessels, aircraft carriers and submarines.
[22:17] In newport news, virginia, and we build four classes of surface combatants here.
[22:17] LShipbuilding depends on skilled workers like welders, electricians and pipes today more than a quarter of these.
[22:17] Workers are approaching retirement age, which is a problem according to Seamus Daniels of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
[22:17] A major constraint is definitely the workforce challenge as shipyards are losing some of their more experienced workers and they're being.
[22:17] Replaced by workers who have less experience. So ultimately, that may contribute to some of the delays that the Navy is seeing.
[22:18] Producing ships as you're trying to train this workforce and really get them up to speed4.
[22:18] To fill that gap, the na helps fund workforce initiatives while shipbuders develop their own pipelines.
[22:18] General dynamics and HI have apprenticeship programs HI's yard in Mississippi employs more than 11,000 people.
[22:18] one of the state's largest manufacturing employers in this building at the mta we also teach sheet metal joiners.
[22:18] Pippe and whole insulators and also a lot of electrician training, being able to give some knowledge to them so that way they can take it.
[22:18] the out into the yard and better their career and also the company as well the selling point for trainees are paid.
[22:18] A path to higher wages and a career that does not always require a four year college degree.
[22:18] 🎼the industry also needs to address supply chain issues on time contracts.
[22:19] And overall bureaucracy and that is after the money has come through we need to get funding on time to get the suppliers.
[22:19] StartWhat we're doing is working through a backlog that was put in place under really difficult conditions and under.
[22:19] Different economic environment our two largest contracts were executed in 2019 and you think about what heck was going on in 2019.
[22:19] A more stable supply base and those were put on a contract than COVID hit, and so we had the supply chain impact and labor impact.
[22:19] It made it very challenging so we're working through those, but the ships that are being put under contract now are pretty under contract and scheduled performance.
[22:19] And schedule predictability, assuming what the supply chain can do right now, assuming the constraints we have in our shipyard if you are advising.
[22:19] Policymakers, lawmakers, the na, what would be one policy recommendation that would increase us.. ship output?
[22:20] On time, make sure the funding arrives on time, make sure the supply chain is safe and can meet the requirements and we don't.
[22:20] Behind before we start that happens from time to time in shipbuding where you get late orders behold the schedule consistent with what the initial contracts.
[22:20] no chance to itSeuring funding is just the beginning there's also the sequence of how the money contracts and ship design.
[22:20] Move through this system government shutdowns are a major hindrance to actual effective shipbuilding and making sure that.
[22:20] Tracks and programs themselves are getting started, but I think there's a broader issue beyond the appropriations and funding process.
[22:20] That comes down to the way that the Navy designs its ships as well, and this is about the requirements process that the Navy goes through.
[22:20] USS. naval vessels are incredibly complex with combat systems, radar and other technology.
[22:20] So that means that the ships themselves and their designs are incredibly complex, but given the timelines it takes to design and build these.
[22:21] The requirements may evolve as the threat environment evolves over time what that ultimately means is.
[22:21] May start constructing ships before the design is finalized, and that can be a major issue, especially when you're changing the design.
[22:21] as you're building the ship every time we change your requirement, change your design, it costs us a lot both in dollars.
[22:21] As well as in schedule so that's got to stop there isn't a day that I go to work that i'm not thinking about what's going.
[22:21] Here and in other places around the world where you're serving retired Navy admiral mike mullin served as chief of naval operations.
[22:21] Under president Georgeorge w. Bush and chairman of the joint Chiefs of staff in the first few years of the obama administration.
[22:21] biggestig challenge that the Trump administration is going to have is execution and staying within budget.
[22:22] And staying on schedule and holding people accountable so I think all the pieces are there now the question is can we?
[22:22] One solution farm out the work today, only a1th of Navy shipbuilding is done at distributed sites.
[22:22] The Navy wants to increase that to half by using qualified suppliers and smaller yards across the country to add capacity.
[22:22] We doubled our outsource capacity last year, another 30% this year, and we'll continue to increase that as the partners get.
[22:22] Butike we're very careful to do it correctly because if you don't do it correctly, there's significant challenges with quality and schedule performance, so you have to be mindful.
[22:22] How you do it, but we will continue to outsource that plan also relies on building ships differently using more modular digital.
[22:22] Des that can be spread out across multiple yards so this is thinking through how to design ships and submarines in a way that.
[22:22] Different parts, different major segments of the ship can be constructed in different parts of the country, and then they can be combined in one major.
[22:23] shipyard, but what that'll ultimately is leverage areas in smaller potentially commercial shipyards.
[22:23] or repair yards that can focus on these modules so then they can be combined and what that would ultimately mean is being able to.
[22:23] Distrie shipbuilding need and capacity across other areas of the country Then there's the contrast with how our global.
[22:23] China is achieving scale through a vast commercial and naval shipbuilding base while South Korea and Japan are setting standards for.
[22:23] Speed, process and production capacity of commercial ships think it's good to always compare yourself against the competition.
[22:23] Commercial ships are completely different from building a defense ship if you were to go into a Korean shipyard or commercial it looks very different.
[22:23] And in this shipyard here, but if you go into the defense shipyard, it looks very similar to this, actually their defense shipyards look more alike than ours in there.
[22:24] 🎼Commercial shipy,So I think it's a good comparison. you know what the competition is doing China's shipbuilding surge is a big reason US yard.
[22:24] Expect elevated forI think the growth in China and the growth in their shipbuilding programs means that we're going to be building ships for a while.
[22:24] And we need to continue to build we need to concentrate on that because China' is building a big fleet and while China's fleet is significant.
[22:24] InThey've got a ways to go from a quality standpoint, and we need to pay attention to that as well.
[22:24] 🎼As the What of ships should be the in.
[22:24] East make clear how relatively cheap drones and missiles can threaten expensive traditional vessels the.
[22:24] Sue is what is generally referred to as a high low mix of capabilities, so having your larger vessels.
[22:24] That can perform exquisite tasks that are large and may be expensive in some cases and combining those with cheaper, more affordable.
[22:25] Fores that provide a different sort of effects, but you can actually buy them in mass in the red sea for literally.
[22:25] Months on end, we were shooting down cheap drones with very expensive missiles, which is a losing game in the long run.
[22:25] But we were able to protect the ships, we know this is coming out there in terms of the drones the.
[22:25] On board these ships to reduce that danger and extend the fleet's reach, the Navy is investing in autonomous uncrewed vessels.
[22:25] We have amuluous family assistance for surface vehicles, so we saw it coming, it's really a force multiplier, it leads into their strategy, their head.
[22:25] Where they have manned and unmanned ships working together and they've had that strategy for a while, the technology just hasn't been there to support it.
[22:25] The autonomy technologies has come into the place where the ships are more reliable and the integration between man and manned is more reliable.
[22:26] But can the na learn from past mistakes and implement real changes to improve future fleets and see warfare?
[22:26] 🎼Companies like H need from the government to be the premier ship We need predictable orders chance to be successful.
[22:26] And we need the orders on time i'm going to build whatever they want me to build trump's golden fleet may signal a shift to a larger na.
[22:26] But the real test will be whether America can build a fleet that's responsive and flexible enough for warfare that is constantly changing.
[22:26] All while staying the multi year course that it takes for ships to go from blueprint to naval battlefield.
[22:26] Up next on liberation day in april last year, president trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports for much.
[22:26] Of the rest of the world now the supreme court says he has to give it all back, we look at how that is going.
[22:27] Domestic politics, that's been pretty much defined by the war.
[22:27] Of the two most powerful families in the country, Marcos Dute is there?
[22:27] Any chance of amending of ties Well I don't see it as's a war, i'm not conducting any war or political war against anyone.
[22:28] I trying do my job, I think it is not entirely accurate to describe that there's a war between their warring families.
[22:28] to on the same, I don't think so. I think it was the best thing that we would do because.
[22:28] I had the same idea of what needed to be done in government. Maybe that's changed. But if we look at it in the context of that period, I think that was.
[22:28] S remains veryIf she want to come to power.
[22:28] Some of your policies might be revised yes, very much that is a great worry for me because we have just.
[22:28] And these are big things that we are trying to do with changing the whole way that we govern, we are trying to reform the buruc.
[22:28] These things don't get done instantly and it's very, very easy to go off the rails, it is continuity.
[22:28] We aspire for, otherwise we go back to doing business the old way.
[22:29] Bringing you the most important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens.
[22:29] Im Michaelcha McKee on the Mexican border and this is bloomloberg welcome to the world of decentralized finance.
[22:29] is covering all things crypto, the people, the transactions, and the technology Bpto.
[22:29] Tuesdays only on bloomberg in case you missed it on bloomberg grief you have7.
[22:29] ing in one corner, but another you know, the IGVzagging in the other corner, so you've had this cancellation broadly on the index.