彭博节目讨论美国海军“黄金舰队”和造船产能约束，未给出新增订单或可交易催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-19 18:00–18:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 210 段
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--- 转录正文 ---
[18:00] This is Wall Street Week, I'm Davidvi Westton bringing you stories of capitalism.
[18:00] And trump wants to build what he calls a golden fleet to transform the U.S. Navy what will it take to get it done?
[18:00] U to the task and can the government stay the course this time plus it's one thing to charge 166.
[18:00] 🎼It the continuing saga of President Trump's AEPA and.
[18:00] Can ever really be put back together again and Blair Efron of Center View partnersner takes us through what the AI rush is doing.
[18:00] 🎼To American companies and the deals they are trying to make, is there anything left for the rest of us, but we start with the global concern.
[18:00] Over inflation in a week that gave us new cpi numbers and chair Wsh's first testimony on capitol hill are we facing higher.
[18:00] Long term interest rates, how much of it comes from that AI rush and what does it mean for Western economies if we can't get back to that.
[18:01] rada messster was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of cleveland and now holds positions at both penn's warden school.
[18:01] And Princeton, we got new inflation numbers out this week, which were not as bad as they had been in the past.
[18:01] But there has been a growing concern, I think, about longer term inflation where are we Well inflation's been above the 2% goal.
[18:01] Fed for over five years, so we do have an inflation problem i think it remains to be seen whether where interest rates are today.
[18:01] A enough right to actually move inflation back down I think the question that FOc is going to have to ask itself is do we?
[18:01] To raise interest rates a bit in order to add restrictiveness to the economy to bring inflation down and I think they don't know.
[18:01] i think the tone is getting more that we we're impatient with this inflation, but i think they're going to.
[18:02] For some more data before they make up their mind that they're going to need to raise rates, i think there's a good case for saying we need higher interest rates.
[18:02] It's hard to argue that where we are today is very restrictive on the economy and particularly maybe because the headline number came down really.
[18:02] Largely because of fuel that's right, I would say though, that overall the report was a pretty good report, even when you look at the company.
[18:02] I mean, one of the things that have been, I think, troubling me is if you look at core services excluding housing.
[18:02] I think that's a key indicator to look at that's been moving up right we had the inflation coming down last year in before.
[18:02] The war in iran, we saw that indicator of the services component excluding housing starting to move back up i think that.
[18:02] Got to be a concern for the FMc you know they've been forecasting inflation is going to come down and even without oil.
[18:02] PesP it back up, you still see that inflation has been pretty sticky and so raises the question for some of us why.
[18:03] Good to have the numbers and know where the numbers are, but then you want to know what is really driving that because you have some sense of where it's going to go next well I think that's the question about how restrictive.
[18:03] monetaryary policy is what's going to determine whether demand is outpacing supply and therefore putting up pressure.
[18:03] Sure on prices or whether it's restrict enough and it's going to bring demand more into balance with supply.
[18:03] Where we know demand is up is in AI and all that comes with it, all the investments being made are really to me at least.
[18:03] Does that in and of itself suggest that we probably going to have continued inflation pressure for the foreseeable future.
[18:03] See prices for components that go into AI being elevated, and that is a source of pressure, upward pressure on inflation.
[18:03] I think the question and this is something that the new chair kevin mor has been talking about is eventually he believes that AI.
[18:04] Will increase productivity enough that it becomes sort of a disinflationary force I don't think the timing really suggests that we're going to get.
[18:04] There soon, i do think right now it's an inflationary issue and the question is how long will that last?
[18:04] Whether again, that'll feed into other parts of the inflation and the consumption basket and therefore become a more of a broader inflation.
[18:04] And this week we had not just the cpi numbers, but also chair wsh with his first appearance on capitol hill where.
[18:04] My hearing said we really are serious about this mi and you recognize what you said which is we've had it over 2% for a long time now, we've got to do something.
[18:04] at the same time, maybe as you said, eventually it might come back down, how does he balance those two things and how long is eventually?
[18:04] This is always a question for the fed and certainly I think it was great that he reiterated the commitment that the FOC and the F.
[18:04] Has a 2% price stability i would say as someone who was at the F right, we were always committed to the 2%.
[18:05] Inflation target that's not and price stability and maximum employment, which are the goals that we've been given by congress.
[18:05] n't new and the real question is in making those trade offs between the two goals when there are trade offs, right?
[18:05] And I think they're going to have to take seriously whether their policy rate right now is in the right place or whether they're going to have to recalibrate that a bit high.
[18:05] As you say there's a dual mandate, it's both about price stability as well as employment.
[18:05] situation in the United states right now actually give the fed if they wanted to use it some room to raise labor.
[18:05] It's an interesting labor market in the sense that it does appear to be pretty steady and imbalance I think what troubles people is.
[18:05] When you look at the rate of payroll employment growth, it's much slower than it had been in the past right it used to be that you'd say.
[18:06] To keep the unemployment rate stable, you would need 150,000 jobs added per month now right that number is much.
[18:06] Much lower right many estimates are between 50 and 70,000 a month, so that's quite a bit lower and that's because the supply side of the lake.
[18:06] market has changed so much so you don't need as much hiring to keep supply and demand in balance so there's a lot of concern.
[18:06] the labor market in terms of those lower growth numbers, but actually it's been a pretty stable on the unemployment rate itself is low.
[18:06] That there aren't problems in the labor market in terms of different aspects of it, as probably you know from and your listeners know.
[18:06] You college graduates have had to struggle to get jobs, part of it may be AI, part of it may be uncertainty about the.
[18:06] But a lot of what's happening in the labor market is on the supply side and not on the demand side, and so yes, the key.
[18:06] Right now in the economy is the inflation part of the mandate, not the labor side you mentioned the various task force5 I think there are that chair war.
[18:07] She named to deal with various aspects, I suppose it's sort of to be expected that when somebody comes in, they want to take a fresh look at things.
[18:07] Were you surprised at how quickly and how extensively he's looking at some basic things at the F?
[18:07] He was very vocal before he became chair about some of the things that he thought could be rethought.
[18:07] And so if you look at the task force, there's one on communications, there're one on the balance sheet, and he's been very vocal about the balance sheet and the use of quantitative E.
[18:07] He's been very vocal about trying to find data sources that are more micro oriented data sources and more forward looking to help.
[18:07] Do its projections so that it can have a better sense of where the economy is going And the last one, of course, we just talked about AI, the labor.
[18:07] And he has particular views on that what I was happy to see is that the people he's chosen as leaders of those.
[18:08] Five areasThere really are experts and it's a combination of academics, central bank.
[18:08] Not only U.S. central bankers but abroad who have been central banking experience in terms of actually doing monetary policy.
[18:08] adSo I think the combination of those people right, and with the staff help from the Fed, as he said, right.
[18:08] I get some very thoughtful results from that, and of course then the FOMC will have to take up some of those recommendations.
[18:08] And debate them among themselves because they are the policymakersRecently, the projections based on the markets.
[18:08] Changed a fair amount about the likelihood rate increase, for example, in july that really has moved around a lot dealt with.
[18:08] time is that typical if you've seen that before, is this unusual the expectations are changing fairly rapidly.
[18:08] Economy has been changing, right it's hard to read an economy where you had the tariff shock right, then we had the Iran war and the oil.
[18:09] Price shock so there's a lot of uncertainty about what the trajectory of the economy is going to be and of course the on again off again.
[18:09] Iran war, the ceasefire that adds to sort of uncertainty because oil prices are a significant input into.
[18:09] A lot of parts of the economy, so i'm not sure that i would say that it's more volatility than what should be expected given the uncertainty.
[18:09] We've been facing the economy and then layered on top of that, of course you have a new fed share coming in as you say for several years now, we've had an inflation problem.
[18:09] And one question is, will it solve itself or do they have to get more restrictive, but from your perspective?
[18:09] Do you think that the degree of that problem has changed over the last six months, nine months, is it a bigger problem today than it was six months ago?
[18:09] I think it's a different problem right I think six months ago, the focus was on how much of the tariffs we're going to feed through.
[18:10] To inflation and remember, there is also some concerns on some of the committee members about the labor market.
[18:10] The labor market is stabilized and I think they have a much better view of sort of the low payroll numbers not necessarily meaning the labor market.
[18:10] Weakening appreciably I think there's recognition now that probably the tariff part of the inflation story is.
[18:10] Stabilized right there's not going to be much more pass of that we do have the oil price shock now, which is a new shock, but i think there's.
[18:10] More recognition of the accumulation of bad readings in terms of inflation moving in the wrong direction that I think that's really what.
[18:10] Change the narrative about inflation, I think there's better recognition that, even though we're hoping that we're at a point where interest rates are enough to.
[18:10] Get inflation back down to 2%, that projection may not come to pass, and i think that's what's changed.
[18:10] Coming up, we go to Pascago in, Mississippi to see firsthand what it will take for President Trump to get all those ships he needs for his so called.
[18:11] Golden Fleet.
[18:11] Africa, a region rife with potential for growth and opportunities, but not without its challenges join us.
[18:12] As we get to the heart of African business, politics and economics and ask the question what's next on this episode.
[18:12] Build AI infrastructure so that it's close to where the users are and where the demand is going to be and in the case of African bo is at a dual goal.
[18:12] Its both connectivity and Comp premieres Julyly 24, only on bloomberg.
[18:12] What was it like starting all over again one day you're in a big company you're a big parent and then you have to start all over again?
[18:12] It was really exciting and invigorating, I felt like a young kid again when I started Jones Road and right before we launched.
[18:12] 🎼I only had a sudden emotion of saying, oh oh, what if I'm a one hit wonderer, I was a little scared, but then I just threw it up into the wind.
[18:12] Went for Jonesnes road where that name come from Well, I sold the rights to Boby Brown to Eee Laer.
[18:12] We sold the company, so I couldn't use it again, so we needed a name because I wanted to launch Jones Road the day my 25.
[18:13] 🎼Your noncompte was up. I needed a name, and I didn't have one, and I was driving to the Hamptons with my husband. My head was down on.
[18:13] And I looked down, I saw Jones Road, and he saidI said Jones Road Beauty, he said I like it, and that's how it became Jones Road.
[18:13] Asia is at the forefront of some of the world's biggest stories.
[18:13] 🎼Where the action starts in Sydney and in Tokyo, yet ahead as the global trading day begins, the Asia trade weekdays.😊
[18:13] On every weekday bloomloer puts a spotlight on a different aspect of global finance flows, funds and the forces.
[18:13] QThe future of money with Blop the players behind major transactions on Blo.
[18:13] Rates, risk and the cost of capital on Bloomberg Ra Y and Per finance, retirement and wealth management on Bloomberg Mo.
[18:14] A different topic every weekday, only on Bloomberg television.
[18:14] This is a story about staying the course as America marks 250 years.
[18:14] independence president trump has plans for a much bigger na what he calls a golden fleet, but to get from planning.
[18:14] Doing requires more than just money it requires workers, suppliers, shipyards, design discipline and executing on the plan.
[18:14] Over the course of years, even as the very nature of naval combat faces disruption, bloomberg scarcarlet Fobe has the story.
[18:14] This is an America class amphibious assault ship currently under construction for the U.S Navy by Huntington Ingels Industries.
[18:14] Also known as hi we the flight deck of lH8, which is really the ship that takes marines into the fight this.
[18:15] have between 12 and 20 F35 based on the configuration they park here so it's a very capable ship.
[18:15] Go to trials the end of this year and deliver next year it's just one of several complex naval ships being built at the.
[18:15] In Pascalgoula, misspi where we got a tour from hI CEO christopher Casner ship only gets in your blood.
[18:15] There's just something so rewarding about building a ship you know is going to go into service this steel into Americanic naval power.
[18:15] Thousands of workers, millions of parts and years of labor under president don Trumpmp, Washington wants more ships fast.
[18:15] I have approved a plan for the Navy to begin the construction of two brand new very large, the largest we've ever built.
[18:15] Battleships, they'll be the fastest, the biggest, and by far 100 times more powerful than any battle.
[18:16] His administration's plan calls for new combatants, auxiliaries unmanneds.
[18:16] And a nuclear powered battleship currently, the U.S Navy operates roughly 290 battle force ships well below the mandated.
[18:16] sThe Navy is requesting $65.8 billion for their 2027 fiscal year.
[18:16] Bion dollars or almost 40% more than it requested for 2026 for shipbuilders that translates into years.
[18:16] Of expected the administration is investing in the right places there's a lot of momentum behind shipbuilding.
[18:16] Ivements across both of our shipyards, and we need to continue to improve to support their requirements aside can the industry build a.
[18:16] 🎼this wants especially when construction of the most complex Navy vessels is split between.
[18:16] general dynamics and H provides 50% of the ships to the unit States fleet.
[18:17] We build nuclear vessels, aircraft carriers and submarines in Newport New, Virginia, and then we built four classes of surface combatants here.
[18:17] One of the biggest limitations is labor shipbuilding depends on skilled workers like welders, electricians and pipe fitters.
[18:17] Today, more than a quarter of these maritime workers are approaching retirement age, which is a problem according to Seamus Daniels of.
[18:17] 🎼ent for Str and international StiesA major constraint is definitely the workforce challenge as shipyards are losing some.
[18:17] They're more experienced workers, and they're being replaced by workers who have less experience, So ultimately that may contribute.
[18:17] To some of the delays that the Navy is seeing in producing ships as you're trying to train this workforce and really get them up to speed.
[18:17] Again, i'm missing my 45 here what's the takeout for that to fill that gap, the na helps fund workforce initiatives.
[18:18] While shipbus develop their own pipelines, both general dynamics and H have apprenticeship programs.
[18:18] Miisippi employs more than 11,000 people making it one of the state's largest manufacturing employers.
[18:18] We also teach sheet metal, joiners, pipe andhu insulators, and also a lot of electrician training.
[18:18] Being able to give some knowledge to them so that way they can take it with them out into the yard and better their career and also the company as well.
[18:18] The selling point for trainees are paid training, a path to higher wages, and a career that does not always require a four year college.
[18:18] 🎼Solving for a steady stream of skilled laborers is not the only challenge the industry also needs to address supply.
[18:18] sues on time contracts, design changes, and overall bureaucracy and that is after the money has come through.
[18:18] We need to get funding on time to get the suppliers started what we're doing is working through a backlog that was put in place.
[18:19] Under really difficult conditions and under a different economic environment, our two largest contracts were executed in 2019.
[18:19] And you think about what he was going on in 2019, no inflation, a more stable supply base, and those were put on a contract than COVID hit.
[18:19] And so we had, you know, the supply chain impact labor impact made it very challenging so we're working through those but the ships that are being put under contract now.
[18:19] Are pretty under contract and schedule performance and schedule predictability, assuming what the supply chain can do right now.
[18:19] shipIf you were advising policymakers, lawmakers, the na, what would be one policy recommendation that would?
[18:19] Incre u ship output beyond time make sure the funding arrives on time, make sure the supply chain is safe and.
[18:19] And can meet the requirements and we don't get behind before we start that happens from time to time in shipbuing where you get late orders.
[18:20] with the have no chance to securing funding is the beginning.
[18:20] 🎼Sequence of how the money, contracts and ship designs move through this system government shutdowns are a major hindrance to actual.
[18:20] Effective shipbuilding and making sure that contracts and programs themselves are getting started. but I think there's a broader issue.
[18:20] Beyond the appropriations and funding process, that comes down to the way that the Navy designs its ships as well.
[18:20] About the requirements process that the Navy goes through, the US naval vessels are incredibly complex with combat system.
[18:20] Radar and other technology, and so that means that the ships themselves and their designs are incredibly complex.
[18:20] Given the timelines it takes to design and build these, the requirements may evolve as the threat environment evolves over time.
[18:20] WhatUltimately means is that the Navy may start constructing ships before the design is finalized.
[18:21] Be a major issue, especially when you're changing the design as you're building the ship every time we change your requirement, change a design.
[18:21] It costs us a lot, both in dollars as well as in schedule so that's got to stop there isnt a day that i.
[18:21] To work that i'm not thinking about what's going on here and in other places around the world where you're serving.
[18:21] Admiral mike mullen served as chief of naval operations under president george w bush and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff in the first few years.
[18:21] Of the Obama administration, I think the biggest challenge that the Trump administration is going to have is execution.
[18:21] And staying know within budget and staying on schedule and holding people accountable.
[18:21] the question is can we solution the work.
[18:22] The1 of Navy shipbuilding is done at distributed sites. The Navy wants to increase that to half by using qualified suppliers and smaller yards.
[18:22] Across the country to add capacity we doubled our outsource capacity last year, another 30% this year.
[18:22] We'll continue to increase that as the partners get qualified, we're very careful to do it correctly because if you don't do it correctly, there's significant challenges with quality.
[18:22] So you have to be mindful of how you do it, but we will continue tosourceThat plan also relies on building.
[18:22] Different using more modular digital designs that can be spread out across multiple yards So thinking through.
[18:22] De ships and submarines in a way that different parts, different major segments of the ship can be constructed in different parts of the.
[18:22] CountryAnd then they can be combined in one major shipyard. But what that'll ultimately allow the Us to do is to leverage.
[18:22] And smaller, potentially commercial shipyards or repair yards that can focus on these modules. so then they can be combined.
[18:23] And what that would ultimately mean is being able to distribute shipbuilding need and capacity across other areas of the country.
[18:23] Then there's the contrast with how our global peers are building ships China is achieving scale through a vast commercial and naval shipbuilding base.
[18:23] While South Korea and Japan are setting standards for their speed, process discipline and production capacity of commercial ships.
[18:23] Compare yourself against the competition. There are different shipbuilding processes. commercial ships are completely different from building a defense ship if you were to go into a.
[18:23] In shipyard or commercial it looks very different than this shipyard here, but if you go into the defense shipyard, it looks very similar to this actually there.
[18:23] Tense shipyards look more alike than ours than their commercial shipyard, so I think it's a good comparison you always need to know what the competition is doing.
[18:23] China's shipbuilding surge is a big reason U yards expect demand to stay elevated for years I think the growth in China and the growth in their shipbuilding.
[18:24] Programs means that we're going to be building ships for a while here and we need to continue to build We need to concentrate on that because Chinaa's building a big.
[18:24] And while China's fleet is significant in numbers, they've got a ways to go from a quality standpoint and we need to pay attention.
[18:24] 🎼To that as well even if America can build more ships, another question hangs over the fleet. what kinds of ships should be.
[18:24] The ongoing conflicts in ukraine and the Middle East make clear how relatively cheap drones and missiles can threaten expensive.
[18:24] I think what the Navy needs to pursue is what is generally referred to as a high low mix of capability.
[18:24] So having your larger vessels that can perform exquisite tasks that are large and may be expensive in some cases.
[18:24] And combining those with cheaper, more affordable forces that provide a different sort of effects, but you can actually buy them in mass.
[18:24] In the Red Sea for literally months on end, we were shooting down cheap drones with very expensive.
[18:25] 🎼Of missiles, which is a losing game in the long run. But we were able to protect the ships. We know this is coming out there in terms of.
[18:25] There's also the risk to the Marines on board these shifts to reduce that danger and extend the fleet's reach the Navy is.
[18:25] uncr we have a romulus family assistance for surface vehicles so we saw it coming's really.
[18:25] It leads into their strategy or their head strategy where they have manned and unmanned ships working together, and they've had that strategy for a while the technology.
[18:25] just hasn't been there to support it now the technology has the autonomy technologies come into the place where the ships are more reliable.
[18:25] And the integration between man and manned is more reliable but can the na learn from past mistakes and implement real changes to future?
[18:25] Fleets and sea warfare what do companies like h need from the government to be the premier shipbuilder we just need predictable orders.
[18:26] We need a chance to be successful, we need to limit change and we need the orders on time, I'm going to build whatever they want me to build.
[18:26] Golden Fleet may signal a shift to a larger Navy, but the real test will be whether America can build a fleet that's responsive and flexible enough.
[18:26] For warfare that is constantly changing all while staying the multi year course that it takes for ships to go from blueprint to.
[18:26] Battlefield next on liberation day in april last year.
[18:26] Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from much of the rest of the world now the supreme court says he has to give it all back.
[18:26] How that is going.
[18:27] Are you a different president?
[18:27] I have to be, it's a different time. There's fundamental lessons that I still hold close to my heart.
[18:27] But in terms of the practical things that you do, very few of those things apply any longer.
[18:27] Mom oh she she's in her 90s Yeah, but I always say she's 95 years old, she didn't get the memo she doesn.
[18:27] I don't believe she's 95 years and she's still very active. I mean, I still get calls from her and she she says you need to do.
[18:28] she need to do that and she doesn't let her age hold her back, but she try to advise you.
[18:28] Con constantly and you know I always learned something new with my mom in my family, she's the real politician.
[18:28] She said, natural, my father was an intellect, he was a statesman, and we always said that he lived.
[18:28] 🎼In his head, you know, it was very, very very deep thinker. that's where I learned. my mother, on the other hand, she has this.
[18:28] Canny ability to connect with any kind of person, any person she runs into in the street King.
[18:28] Presidents, anyone, her childhood friend, she doesn't know how to fight, she's very bad at conflict.
[18:28] Bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news.
[18:28] And wherever it happens, I'm and hoderin in anchor Turkey, this is bloomberg.
[18:29] 🎼The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close.
[18:29] Weekdays on Bloberg context changes everything.