中国据报开始小规模量产国产浸没式DUV光刻机，ASML美股已先行下跌

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-28 07:00–07:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 196 段
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[07:00] 🎼Asm share a slide on a report that China is mass producing high chip making tools.
[07:00] Potentially threatening the Dutch farm sales and oil prices extend their drop as bitterly supply threats ease.
[07:00] President trump saying there's a good chance of a new deal with iran.
[07:00] For trading in as, as Sherry mentioned a lot of cross current s and a lot of pressures to the downside, particularly if you take a look at the AI and.
[07:00] Pated trade radar Sherry mentioned we saw that slide in ASml on that report that China starting DUV tool production, we're also seeing that broad of Malay.
[07:00] Starting to hit when it comes to these IPO mega listings right SKH is slumping below its U IPO price, we also have seen the pressure.
[07:00] It comes to SpaceX as well being now among the year's largest U.S offerings to trade below where the shares were sold for on the first day publicly.😊
[07:01] Is that what you will in terms of the pressure that we could see when it comes to the Asia session, but broadly it was that wobble with AI angst offsett the declines we've seen.
[07:01] when it comes to that broader Iran trade, though, it seems that anxiety at this point at least had been set aside given that we've had a few days.😊
[07:01] Of respite from this recognitiontion of the reescalation of this conflict, right, but futures are looking broadly.😊
[07:01] across Asia, Brent crude also looking broadly lower 8.7% of the last trade and we seeWTR off by six tenths of1% so.
[07:01] Its becomecom a pretty steep drop after President Trump said the two sides are engaged in talks to end the conflict, remember we hadn't heard as to whether these talks were really even on.
[07:01] Going or not, but still even this pause in strikes a sort of ability to continue negotiating, not really creating that much upside.
[07:01] mentaryAnd still heidi that oil relief really being overrun by the concerns around the AI trade.
[07:01] $750 billion web of AI deals reviving concerns about circular financing across the industry.
[07:02] berg intelligence global head of technology research mandy Singh joins me now man the fact that Nvidia is financing guaranteeing.
[07:02] Or investing in these companies and then subsequently these companies buying invidious products, how big is this risk?
[07:02] I mean, look, vendor financing has been a concern from the.
[07:02] Being when it comes to this AI infrastructure build out, and in this case, I think with open AI specifically they were.
[07:02] You know, exclusively working with Microsoft initially for the first couple of years and now that they have gotten.
[07:02] Out of that exclusive agreement, and they have their own ambitions when it comes to setting out these arts data centers,.
[07:02] have the balance sheet like the hyperscalealrs do, so they're relying on someone like Nvidia for the backstop, obviously.
[07:03] Be raising some of their own funding, given their revenue has ramped up nicely year to date, same thing with Anthropic.
[07:03] You know, both of them are looking to build their own data centers now rather than just rely on these big hyperscale cloud play.
[07:03] And that's where I think NVdia gets to step in and really partner closely with someone like Open AI and be that backstop.
[07:03] You know and open AI ends up buying more chips, so there is that circular aspect, but at the end of the day, you know these companies.
[07:03] Have the revenue to justify this kind of spend that they're making but mandy, even when it comes to that, Gar.
[07:03] He of open AI does that signal bigger issues in the AI ecosystem, funding strains when it comes to this build out?
[07:03] I mean, look, the numbers are getting very big now and even NviDdia's revenue is getting so big.
[07:03] them to be able to sustain these kind of growth rates, they need a lot of financing for their customer.
[07:04] And even you know, the US hyperscalers are going into negative free cash flow territory now, so because the numbers.
[07:04] gettinging so big, yes, it does give you that impression that, you know, it's getting harder and harder when it comes to financing some.
[07:04] These things, but we're talking about continuous monetization, that's why the As of open AI and Anropic.
[07:04] Haveve grown up so rapidly and same thing with the Google results we saw last week, they saw their Google Cloud segment grow.
[07:04] 82% in the late quarter, a lot of that left coming from AI and we'll find out from Microsoft and the other hyperscalers.
[07:04] How much of contribution they're getting from AI, so all in all, I think we are seeing ROI, but the numbers are getting so big.
[07:04] You know, it's logical to be scared about, you know these kind of risks about forVdia itself.
[07:05] He had the worst day in almost two months it's lost his status as the world's most valuable company to Apple right now when it comes to any.
[07:05] Pause in the construction when it comes to artificial intelligence infrastructure, what does it mean for NviDdia?
[07:05] Yeah, I think and really the real risk is how much are these Asics non?
[07:05] GPU workload is going to take market share and we know Google has been very successful with their TUs and both open eye and Anropic.
[07:05] Are now working with Brocom to make their own chips, so the visibility is still pretty good for Nvidia in the near to medium term.
[07:05] But if you look you know, three, four years out, they will have more competition on the inferencing side and that's where they are.😊
[07:05] Timeing to boost that open source open rate ecosystem because they want model fragmentation, They want more players.
[07:05] Like Open ion Anropic who are at the frontier so that they are not reliant on just two customers buying all their chips along with the hype.
[07:06] Scal and the fragmentation really works well for them and which is why they're so supportive of the open data ecosystem.
[07:06] So Man deep, when it comes to investors trying to distinguish genuine end demand, what are some of the metrics that you'll be watching in the AI Eagle?
[07:06] ystemYes, I think when it comes to token consumption, all of these companies.
[07:06] Give you some sort of a metric and Google has been sharing that and we are expecting Microsoft and.
[07:06] Amazon and meta will talk about token consumption because right now that metric has been growing,, four to five x over the past one.
[07:06] , which is phenomenal growth and that is what's translating into these sort of data center chip growths that we have seen.
[07:06] But if that taper is down, we want to know the slope of that tapering because if it's a cliff sort of situation then.
[07:07] Clearly, you know the risk gets magnified, but if that token consumption keeps up, then we know the chip demand is going to be.
[07:07] Strong because it's translating into tokens that are being used for different kinds of workloads.
[07:07] Lilenberg intelligence global head of technology research Man deepep seeing there and the other major tech developments that were following ASml shares.
[07:07] Fell after a report that a Chinese state backed company has started mass producing duv lithography machines.
[07:07] By tech publication, the information says the unnamed shanghai based firm is seeking to make about five duv units this year.
[07:07] And20 next year, while the tools reportedly lag ASEmL's advanced systems, investors are closely watching China's.
[07:07] 🎼To build chip supply chain Bloberg to invest $5 billionI.
[07:07] this will mark one of the chipmaker's biggest bets of the ai boom.
[07:08] For open aI chief scientistlia So is focused on building advanced aI systems safely.
[07:08] Give the company access to nvidia's next generation veraubbin platform.
[07:08] Well, sharerry Asian stocks, as we know set for mostly a week open that sell off in chipmaker, some of the sort of existential concerns.😊
[07:08] Dragging this broad sector lower, but let's take a look at what us to expect, Arfred Reynolds, who leads our market' live Asia coverage and there's quite a few ways to.
[07:08] Look at the sort of stumbling blocks for AIM for the chip makers at the moment, right, we spoke a little bit about the debt aspect actually yesterday, which is interesting.
[07:08] But do you think there is a moment of kind of realization for how much froth there's been or how much enthusiasm there's been?😊
[07:08] Well, very much so, I the boom was extraordinary, so the fear is the bust is going to be extraordinary.🤢
[07:09] Well, and we don't really have any clarity on whether this is a bust.
[07:09] But the apparent slowdown in expectations that AI profits would be.🤢
[07:09] Mas and broadThat has been enough to create some panic for the investors who.
[07:09] piilled in, assuming that the 100% climb for the cost be that we had year to date through the first half.
[07:09] Was going to keep on going so if you have that and have you're mentioning.
[07:09] About credit, if you just look at what's gone on with interest rates, with bonds yields and so on, and therefore credit yields if you can get.
[07:09] six, seven,8% just by buying, a relatively low risk, like an investment grade bond.
[07:09] Then that has you fretting about whether you're so keen to you.
[07:10] It bet big on further massive gains in the AI chipmaker space.🤢
[07:10] Now we've got Chinese rivalry, we've got a history that people are starting to remember of SK Heines and Sam.
[07:10] Some having boom bust cycles before where they were reluctant to expand and therefore prices got high.
[07:10] Therefore, they made lots of profits, then they produce more, they produce too much, you get a glut.
[07:10] You head back down, so we're possibly some way off from that, but all of these fears are swirling, exacerbated.
[07:10] By things like the leveraged ETF situation, the Hyix ADRs, and for that matter you mentioned the SpaceX IPO.
[07:10] With it being back under its IPO price, that was nothing directly to do pretty much with Asia, but it's a mark.
[07:11] Okay, maybe this was the peak and if it was the peak, maybe it's time to get out sooner rather than later, especially for those who are actually sitting.
[07:11] On some hefty profits so far and also not helped by now these sort of renewed concerns that maybe we could get a surprise.
[07:11] F central banks for that matter well mean the very fact that you've got some talk other surprise.
[07:11] So in the Fed, although by now, you've got OA contracts pricing in about a 40% chance of a hike and even.
[07:11] Earlier this week it was 30%, so at that stage it's not so much a surprise or certainly not a major surprise, but there's also been reporting that.😊
[07:11] J could surprise her a hike or should surprise with a hike and those swirling rumors.
[07:11] For the IBA for that matter is now seen as about a 34% chance of a hike next month, all of that tells me that.😊
[07:11] Investors are deeply concerned that central banks are falling behind the curve on inflation again.
[07:12] It's going to have an expectation that rates are going to go higher and in fact, they don't go higher rapidly enough.😊
[07:12] Inflation could get out of control and then in the sort of the real world part of the curve as well, you five years, 10 years.
[07:12] You get significantly higher yields on government bonds, taking everything else up, right as AI themes have.
[07:12] Been borrowing lots of money, no longer just usinging free cash flow, all of that is a potentially very toxic mix.😊
[07:12] I think we've got a lot of investors across assets very much on edge about the risks, the risks to inflation.
[07:12] And the to growth Gulf food rentalolds who leads our markets live, Asia coverage, as we set up for potentially a pretty volatile.😊
[07:12] Trading session here in Asia and still to come, of course, the oil story extending that steep drop President Trump saying that the U and Iran are in talks on a new.
[07:13] 🎼Sesfire De we get the latest next, this is Bloomberg.😊
[07:14] Bringing you the world's business and financial news whenever and where I read happens, by Michael McKee at Mount Everest.
[07:14] This isberg Asia is at the forefront of some of the world's biggest stories and we here with the action.
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[07:14] Mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nut jobss, you know, I've been called worse things than that.
[07:14] 23 and me I think is so incredibly valuable, we're coming back.
[07:14] What magazines were you reading as a kid I don't think I was reading magazines until I was in them so is it paradise ahead or Gattica?
[07:15] Maybe somewhere in the middle.
[07:15] 🎼a red head across the Bloomberg terminal Bloomberg has you covered Trump's global tariffs are struck down by the US Supreme Court for all the context and clarity.
[07:15] 🎼You there's going to be now tons of tariff headlines until midterm election here at first on Bloberg.
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[07:16] They want to meet and we're meeting, we'll see what happens there's a chance we can make a deal without what we did, they wouldn't be talking to us.
[07:16] They requested a meeting through their surrogates and directly and we're meeting and you know, good things can happen.
[07:16] President trump saying the U.S and irvana once again engaged in diplomatic talks to end.
[07:16] Their conflict where energy prices in the meantime have tumbled on these hopes of the pause in fighting with ease supply concerns Iran and Iran also continuing talk.😊
[07:16] On restarting shipping through the Strai of Warose, let's get more from our senior White House, reporter Mika Soa President.😊
[07:16] Trumps saying that is optimistic that is working towards a deal, we had a deal right and it fell apart.
[07:16] High is the level of expectation here that the two sides can come together with a deal that can be relied upon.😊
[07:17] Yeah, Heidi, I mean, as we've seen things are extremely fragile right now between the United States and Iran when it comes to this.
[07:17] Peace deal and we saw what happened and how quickly that initial deal fell apart and so it seems like the.
[07:17] Wite house is now going back to the diplomatic approach, but it's very unclear what's going to happen there there's a very high stakes meeting tomorrow at the white house.
[07:17] Between President trump and israeli, prime minister Bennjamin nettanyahu, and we should expect to hear more out of that meeting.
[07:17] And where things stand, we know that the prime minister is expected to press the president on holding strong on.
[07:17] Preventing getting a nuclear deal with Iran, so we're going to see what comes out of that.
[07:17] Mika, how much pressure is there for President Trump to make a deal now.
[07:17] 100 days less away from the midterms is a war that's both expensive and unpopular even within his own party, not to mention.
[07:18] The ongoing cost of living concerns with gas prices, right, is he more likely to reach a compromise here?
[07:18] Well, I think there's a significant amount of pressure, I think it's unclear whether that's actually going to fulfill a compromise.
[07:18] The president is grappling with these high gas prices and the market volatility that this war has played, but also just the exact.
[07:18] among the public in a critical midterm year where democrats are already feeling bullish they have a very strong chance to flip the house.
[07:18] Potentially, the Senate of Republicans are in a weakened position naturally due to historical trends, but I think that there are people, even Republicans.
[07:18] Who are expressing that they're really frustrated by the prolonged operation in ir and they want more answers here so.
[07:18] Incred there's a lot of pressure on the administration right now' a lot of interesting aspects to this right.
[07:19] Military commanders saying that the limit of effectiveness in these operations by the U.S. has been reached, there's concerns about munition stockpiles.
[07:19] We're also hearing reports of President Trump over the last few days, over the last week of attacks has really been driven.
[07:19] By the anger over U fatality, so how does that kind of bring together the likelihood of an off ramp, I guess?😊
[07:19] Yeah, I mean, I think that the president is going to do you know, whatever he can at trying to end this.
[07:19] More quickly, but as we've seen that's been a lot more challenging and i think that he anticipated in those around him who are at the negotiating table.
[07:19] Iran I think that, you know, there's a lot of concern with capitol Hill Republicans, for example, we saw more Republicans last.
[07:19] We kind of rebuke through the president trump saying that you know this operation needs to wind down, there has been no congressional authority on.
[07:19] They are, and we've also seen the president really escalate his rhetoric, you know, threatening to commit potential war crimes.
[07:20] So we've seen this before from him, of course, that's a tactic that he uses, but know the rhetoric has shifted now it seems to being going.
[07:20] To kind of this more diplomaticberg government senior White house reporter mikolner and just miko.
[07:20] mentioneded with that diplomatic rhetoric we're seeing also oil prices falling, but remember brent is still up 20% this month.
[07:20] Not surprising we've been seeing commodity currencies doing pretty well. yen funded exposure to the Norwegian krona to also the Australian.
[07:20] still right now, it seems to be perhaps the last leg of this we are seeing Australian inflation expectations cooling the Japanese.
[07:20] Yen also holding at that 163 level, but we are seeing our prices continue to increase and remember, we do have the Bank of Japan.
[07:20] Call a decision this week on friday, so perhaps more expectations that the bog might need to hike faster at the moment though we're seeing.
[07:21] A pretty steady session when it comes to the currency markets, more ahead on the Asia trade, this is Bloomberg.
[07:21] 🎼Western countries, all of them are cutting funding to Africa, and some of these programs were supported by funding.
[07:22] Coming from Western countries, like for human resources, for testing, for.
[07:22] 🎼Pot of samples and suddenly African countries have to think how to.
[07:22] 🎼Money and to cover this gap. But it sets some time. And I think the commitment of all all of these factors.
[07:22] 🎼mist we at community we value the support we got and.
[07:22] We still getting from the US and we think that if we continue to work together and there is no reason for the US not to work for free.
[07:22] 🎼Africa CD is the leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[07:22] 🎼Heey investors, top executives, global innovators join me for in depth conversations with them.
[07:23] Best newsmakers on the day's top stories in with Ha Linda on only on Blueom back.
[07:23] China says U.S. has committed to cap replacement tariffs on Chineseese goods at 2.
[07:23] Stking out a limit on further increases as president Trump moves to rebuild his protectionist wall as bringing out China correspond amendment.
[07:23] in Hong Kong, so what have we heard from Beijing in terms of a response on these latest U. tariffs?
[07:23] I think Beijing has been acting with quite a fair bit of restraint so far they have not yet imposed countermeasure to the latest 12..
[07:23] 5% tariff, but the commerce ministry did release a statement indicating that the U has previously agreed to cap those tariffs.
[07:23] 20%So this seems to be giving the U room to increase tariff even further from the current 12.5%.
[07:24] And after the latest probe into forced labor, this is something that the Chinese commerce ministry has hit back against.
[07:24] Saying that they have comprehensive legal frameworks to combat forced labor, but bear in mind, the U is also launching another probe into Chinese over.
[07:24] Capacity that could further increase the tariffs even further. So China has said that it's going to continue monitoring the situation they exist.
[07:24] The encountermeasure against the first round of those those fentanyl tariffs are still in place, but for now, it seems like the message here is that China is.
[07:24] To stabilize those relations, especially ahead of President Xi's trip to the U point.
[07:24] The issue with Chinese AI firms, the accusations of model distillation might be the bigger issue ahead of that leadership meeting.
[07:24] How strong has the rhetoric been from Beijing. Suddenly, this seems to be the more important issue here and the tone from the.
[07:25] Chinese Com ministry is also stronger here as well with China saying that it will take all necessary measures if the US were to take action.
[07:25] To sanction some of these Chinese AI companies and the commerce ministry did indicate that some of these Chinese AI models were released.
[07:25] In close proximity to the us AI models and a subtext here is that it doesn't provide enough time for the.
[07:25] Chinese AI models to distill or to copy from the US models. and China has said that this is a smear campaign.
[07:25] By the US and also said that they are looking for AI talks, this is something that both sides are eyeing in September ahead.
[07:25] Presidentxii's trip, but China has said that this is a double standard being applied by the U, given that many USS. companies are also distilling from China.
[07:25] AI models, this is according to the Chinese commerce ministry, even though they did not name and shame specific US companies that are doing so.😊
[07:25] Bloomberg television's china correspondent mi lo there with the latest when it comes to that battle for artificial intelligence support.
[07:26] And of course, we've seen all of the volatility around aI, the investments, the concerns about circular deals and you can see.
[07:26] crible moves when it comes to sk he this is what's happening before the market opens in South Koreaea in 34 minutes.
[07:26] We had seen ADRs closing below the $149 July 9 offer price remember this $26 billion debut.
[07:26] was a record, but the stock has now joined SpaceX among the year's largest U.S listings to now trade below its IPO price.
[07:26] We still have a lot of investment news, right, Heidi, whether it's within Nvidia planning more than two gigawatts of Korean AI data centers.
[07:26] Even we heard from Chairman Chat Tewa that Anthropic has asked Sk Heyx about memory supplies as well.
[07:26] The juggernat when it comes to the massive amount of capex, even when you're talking about these circular deals, as you did a little bit earlier in conversation right?😊
[07:27] It seemss absolutely unstoppable. The question is whether investors are going to kind of have to shift their mindset in terms of the renewed catalyst that they look.
[07:27] To try and justify this spend. but in the meantime, of course, the broader inflation picture is complicating that as well. What does it mean if we do start.
[07:27] tightenighting from central banks, including the Fed and all of this comes down to what happens with this war right, will there be a deal will the Str of Hos resume.
[07:27] Normal operations at the moment, crude markets are certainly hoping so extending that decline.😊
[07:28] Get your fixed income fixed watch Bloomberg real yield every Thursday at 12 pm Eastern right here on bloomloberg.
[07:28] 🎼Cont changes everything whats going to be the consequence for US markets.
[07:28] cro European and equity take a look at how we're faring when it comes to Asia markets.
[07:28] 🎼In case you missed it on Daybreak your, we talk going with the EU regulator on this though.
[07:29] As I told you, I interact a lot with Americans and Chinese players and we see Trump fighting for their companies all the time, you see the Chinese fighting for their companies all the time.