彭博直播转述中国DUV光刻机量产传闻并讨论亚洲芯片股承压

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-28 08:30–09:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 201 段
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[08:30] We did see SK Heix, the US listed name really falling below its Ao Prize joining the likes of SpaceX.😊
[08:30] Enthusiasm coming out of these mega listings as well here in Australia, really limiting those losses, there is a view that going into earnings season potentially won.😊
[08:30] earningsar outperformance necessarily for Aussie stocks but that there will be stability, so perhaps there is also an opportunity to kind of hide in Australian.
[08:30] What is given that we did see in the Monday session posting the biggest gain since about June 12th there, some of those energy names dragging the broader sector lower today.😊
[08:30] But let's get the details now on a report that a Chinese state backed company has begun mass producing Dv lithography machines for.
[08:30] 's get to Hong Kong bring out China correspondent Mi Minlo as well as our Marcus reporter Anthony Steven so let's start off with you.😊
[08:30] Yes, this is according to the informations reporting and they are reporting based on what sources are telling them.
[08:31] It looks like China is making headway in creating in mass producing these DUV machines, deep ultraviolet machines, which I used.
[08:31] To edge patterns of transistors on these silicon wafers and it's a Chinese, it's a shanghai based startup that has managed together.
[08:31] Expertise from other Chineseese companies, including a state back Chinese firm, and they are planning to make five of these machines this year.
[08:31] 20 next year, so this is critical because asml has so far been dominating the industry.
[08:31] But what is important to note is that these DUv machines, they are less advanced than the EUv or extreme ultraviolet machines.
[08:31] That is the top of the range machines that USS has prevented ASML from selling to China, ASML is also not allowed to sell the most advanced.
[08:31] DUV machines as well, but important to note again that the majority of chips now rely heavily on DUV is only a small.😊
[08:31] All sliver of the most advanced chips require the E machine. So this is still an important breakthrough from the Chinese side. And that is why we're seeing the market.
[08:32] E on asm which saw big declines yesterday in the U session to the lowest level since early ju.
[08:32] Anthony, the implications, though are not just for ASML, we're talking about Asian peers and just a broader AI ecosystem.
[08:32] As wellYeah, this fundamentally alters the valuation picture and how people look at the AI trade, right?😊
[08:32] If China can make a whole range of these chips except for the absolute top end of the line, a lot of chips go back to cyclical value.😊
[08:32] And have to be looked at cyclically. That's why you're seeing this huge impact in Korea and Japan today on passive components, on packaging.
[08:32] Names on land. these are the more basic chips that were being treated as a structural demand story for much of the year and have sold of.
[08:32] Very sharply, first on China's innovations on LLM side to use resources more efficiently. But now another leg lower on China's.
[08:33] We to produce them in the first place. So demand and supply are both being disrupted by China at the same time for these components. Now, this is coming at a base.
[08:33] Sensitive time in positioning, Korea is off almost 30% from the highest. And as local retail has bought almost $100 billion from.😊
[08:33] This is very deep waters They are swimming in, as far as risk management is concerned. Now, the fundamentals for Korea is actually a little bit more.😊
[08:33] You cannot make HBM without EUUV, but for now the positioning and the change of valuation is what is driving markets here.😊
[08:33] You know, M Min, I'm also looking at the story on CxMT, the listing creating a $190 billion windfall for Ihu profit.😊
[08:33] In China, so it just illustrates how key these national champions, the AI strategy is to the broader government.😊
[08:33] Sor of ambition and the broader economic prospects in general, right. So how does this fit into how these AI talks are going to go with China.
[08:33] In the U and potentially this visit by C to the U, this is certainly one of the keying.
[08:34] Poin between US and China right now because the US has been accusing Chinese AI models of distillation and accusing Chinese AI companies.
[08:34] Of IP theft as well and this comes as Kimmi K3 or rather Moonshot AI has just released the weight of Kimmi K3.
[08:34] We saw this six full surge in sales for Moonshot AI since the launch of that new model.
[08:34] So certainly this is something that would really could potentially derail those talks, but for now both sides seem very keen to too.
[08:34] En that nothing would derail Presidentency's visit to the US both sides are eye in those AI talks in September.
[08:34] And of course, the launch of Kimmi K3 at this time is still the monetization side of things is still challenging right, because it really did.😊
[08:34] Deds on these hyperscaleers, these cloud AI providers to host the technology for developers. And so far, we have seen.
[08:35] Chinese companies like Alibaba, like Huawei, they will be able to benefit, but the US hypscalers like Amazon, like Microsoft, they so far have not been.
[08:35] ingAny of these Chinese AI models. So this is going to be a challenge for broader usage of these Chinese AI models, especially.
[08:35] We have seen some resilience for the Chinese tech sector recently, Anthonyon, when it comes to really comparing this.
[08:35] ctor in China to the rest of Asia. How do they stack up on a day like today when you're seeing the copi the Nikke all falling.
[08:35] chip cell of kxiaEven down in the double digitsYeah, I do think it's an interesting dynamicx.
[08:35] TTd yesterday, right, You had that huge liquidity pool, but it's still Chinx and HSt ended up. And one of the things that's happening here is.
[08:35] The windfall from CxMT into the Chinese retail base gives them the risk appetite to play the rest of the AI space and today.😊
[08:35] Have some of the technological progress to back that. So you might have this kind of virtuous cycle of stock winnings meeting Chinese technological.😊
[08:36] Progress to support the HS tech and the Chineseex. Now, within those sectors, there is a lot of dispersion. So the HS tech has a lot of Ev export.😊
[08:36] Which is probably not exposed to this team, but you had stocks like minimax, for example, doing very well double digit gains, Jeu Ten0cent.
[08:36] These are consumers of Chinese tech that will be Chinese chips that will be relatively happy to see this news and on the side of the Chinese X.😊
[08:36] have the optical names and the memory names and the passive component names that would really be welcoming more capacity in the DUV space.😊
[08:36] Today and HS Tech today is set up for much better leads than the equivalent Korea Japan names. But we do face this problem now of.😊
[08:36] Oversly in some of these spaces. So it really remains to be seen how this gets differentiated as time gets worse.😊
[08:36] Bmin, are we going to see some differentiation on the Chinese economy as well as we see this k shape recovery where you focus on tech?
[08:37] But the rest of the property sector, the rest of industrial profits do not necessarily keep up.
[08:37] There bifur in the Chinese economy right and the government is leaning heavily, hoping that tech will be able to pull up the economy we seen.
[08:37] The economic data exports remaining the bright spot here and largely being lifted by the export of these semiconductors.
[08:37] Chhiip components, printed circuit breakers, for example, but again, you look at consumption in China, retail sales.
[08:37] Consumer sentiment still remaining pretty weak here, even though yes, of course, with the Middle East war dragging on the inflation coming.
[08:37] Back to chin, it seems like the government is not too urgent about creating more stimulus and is still hoping that at least.
[08:37] The tech and the manufacturing sector will be able to offset some of the softness when it comes to retail sales.
[08:37] corresponddent me me know there together with Marcus reporter Anthony Stevens joining us from Hong Kong we have more ahead you're watching Bloomberg.
[08:38] 🎼Ehnology is embedded in.
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[08:39] Understanding what's actually happening markets are the best way to glean signal from noise and that is what we try to do every morning this.
[08:39] Is Blueloberg Sur.
[08:39] Well.
[08:39] Alia's resources sector that is in the spotlight with Ra Tinto set to release half year results on Wednesday ahead of reports from BHP for tocue next.
[08:39] Bloberg Inence thinks that gains in copper and aluminumluminium prices may drive a lift in Rio's earningsberg's.😊
[08:40] er Alllan Hunt for Moore, so what have we learned when it comes to some of the operations report from the big miners ahead of these earnings?😊
[08:40] So yeah you're right, we've just come out of the quarterly season I guess, and for the two major minorrs, BHP.
[08:40] Ro Tinto, something that really stood out was a decline in copper production quarter on quarter and compared to.
[08:40] Previous year, looking at those two companies in particular, BHP had warned maybe two years ago that.
[08:40] Production from its key Chian copper portfolio was starting to decline and would decline for many years.
[08:40] Because the grade of or that their mining has fallen, it seems like it took investors a little bit by shock.
[08:40] Perhaps I just needed a reminder that this was happening in Chile, but it really does bring home how these two.😊
[08:41] Major miners with their focus on copper are trying to boost production or maintain production. And it's coming with.
[08:41] uge spend. The other thing that was interesting to take away was the resilience of iron ore So iron ore.😊
[08:41] Cash cow that accounts for, has traditionally accounted for the majority of both BHP and Rio Tintos.
[08:41] And profits and is sort of fueling their moving to diversify and grow their copper portfolios.😊
[08:41] The iron ore prices has remained relatively stable over the last six months, and that's despite negotiations with China's.
[08:41] China Re state buyer We've also got the world's second biggest.
[08:41] Of course, tomorrow, when it comes to Rio specifically, what are you looking for out of that half yearly?😊
[08:41] We can expect possibly an uptick that's at least what analysts are saying in profits thats based.
[08:42] On commodity prices, I mean, one of Rio's biggest commodities is aluminium, and we've seen significant price hikes due to the.
[08:42] US Iran war there also that resilience, as I mentioned in iron ore and a much higher copper price.
[08:42] We are going to also be looking at Rio Tinto's growth options in copper.
[08:42] Key pillars and then Ou Toguay, one of their major minds in Mongolia.
[08:42] Near term and copper mines take seven years to develop from scratch.😊
[08:42] That does bring into question, you know things like M&A, that's certainly something that we'll be looking at, of course Rio earlier this year held.
[08:42] With Glencore and that's something that we'd be interested in seeing whether that remains on the table or not.
[08:43] too early to say and of course, strategy, Rio Tinto's strategy to divest non corere assets.😊
[08:43] Things like infrastructure and its restructure internally. know, It had a huge headcount. It'll be interesting to see those numbers tomorrow.
[08:43] Blenbergs medalals and Moning reporter Paul Alan Hunt there joining us from Melbourne, let's get some more analysis with grounds Bo who's a.😊
[08:43] Amodities analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence and Grant we were just talking with Paul about the dynamic for the copper market right it's quite an interesting one.😊
[08:43] Say know consistently that we're seeing risk free for the global economy, but at the same time that's perhaps being balanced up.😊
[08:43] By tightness in the market, Yeah, undoubtedly, so copper has been I'd say.😊
[08:43] Despite all the potential risks to global growth, copper prices have been very, very strong over the past six months.
[08:43] And have held consistently above $13,000 a ton I think fundamentally, if you look at supplied of demand funds.
[08:44] The market looks perhaps balanced to if now maybe slightly oversupplied.
[08:44] But it's still a very, very tight market and as Paul alluded to one of the key things that's holding it or keeping it.
[08:44] Elevated is the supply site. I mean, that has been, the miners have struggled to deliver.
[08:44] U tos and indeed, the industry is still recovering from a couple of serious setbacks that it had.
[08:44] last year andns, those mines like Grasburg haven't returned to full production.
[08:44] And that's keeping the mine supply pretty, pretty tight. So we're lucky to see if we're going to see any growth in mine supply.
[08:44] Across the sector at all this year, it's likely to be flat to maybe half a percent up if we're lucky.
[08:45] One of the aspects that keeping the market tight So you'll focus more on the gains as a result of copper.
[08:45] Aluminium as well when it comes to these rio tininto numbers that we're expecting, what's the dynamic going to be and do you expect that?
[08:45] thTo be able to be maintained.
[08:45] The strength of the aluminumluminium price does more or less depend on how the trajectory of the US Iran.
[08:45] W continues so you know, if we get a resolution and it sticks, then aluminium prices may come under a little.
[08:45] But of pressure in the second half of the year, partly because you know, that opens up the sts of Paul moose and we can get raw material.
[08:45] And the Gulf smelters start to ramp back up again it drags.
[08:45] Then the price of aluminumluminium is sustainable and at a higher level than we have seen.
[08:46] I would add, though, that we have seen a supply response from other parts of the world, so China has exported a lot more in the form of.
[08:46] Semi fabricricated goods, as well as some places like India and Indonesia are ramping up production.
[08:46] And you know that is starting to tell on the market, so the market will balance itself despite risks to the goal.
[08:46] So say aluminium yes, so in the short term it does really depend on the trajectory of the wall copper certainly I think the price current price.
[08:46] Its sustainable around about 13,000 tons again, you know, if the war does drag on and we do stop.
[08:46] To see ray hikes and we do start to see a big drag on global growth, which up to now we haven't really noticed too much.
[08:46] Then that may be a risk to copper prices, but if we do get a sort of a resolution and it's.
[08:47] The Strais of H moves open up then I think certainly copper is looking well underpinned.
[08:47] At these levelsSo there's a war impact, there's also the China impact right as we continue to see.
[08:47] there's a clear bifurcation when it comes to the k shape recovery in the Chinese economy at the moment.😊
[08:47] ingWhen it comes to demand for iron ore.
[08:47] There's been quite a lot of in terms of the demand for EinOe, if we look at the Chinese steel market, sure it looks as though you know.
[08:47] Demand, certainly on the construction side of the economy is weaker.
[08:47] But that has sort of Chinese production has found a home in exports and you know whilst I mean.
[08:47] We and a lot of the market were expecting a bit of a slowdown in Chinese steel exports.
[08:48] You know, that hasn't really materialized, so the demand for I ore in China is still particularly you know, still being particularly.
[08:48] Strong imports are still very, very good, so in terms of demand, we're not seeing, you know.
[08:48] A major pullback in terms of iron or demand, and that keeps it reasonably well supported.
[08:48] About $100 dollars a ton. There's also a cost support there as well. There's quite a lot of costs.
[08:48] Sensitive producers that, you know, whenever the price drops below $100 a ton for any length.
[08:48] Of time a lot of those producers start to pull back from the market and you know that just seems.
[08:48] To be quite a good cost support level, both with internally in China and, you know the sort of smaller producers.
[08:49] And obviously not the majors, we have a much better cost structure start to pull back and you know, we've seen that time and time.
[08:49] Again, and that's, you know, one of the reasons why iron ore prices have sort of keep onsurprising on the upside and have been.
[08:49] Particularly resilient as we get those BHP numbers as well as Rio.
[08:49] This week and going into next month as well, what are your expectations when it comes to commentary around M&A, right obviously?😊
[08:49] We had BHP walking away from Ago again was sort of the large major development, has that interest been quite ted for this?😊
[08:49] So look I me look along with cash.
[08:49] Sorry, cost control, cash conversion, capital allocation is going to be a key focus in these upcoming results.
[08:49] And with that, the discussion around M&A is be is going to surface again, look, I suspect.
[08:50] The miners or BHP and Rio are really focused on.
[08:50] Prioritizing copper, it's a primary growth driver across the sector, so they're going to prioritize it as they key strategic.
[08:50] Focus, I think, though, that the challenge is to find you know, targets.
[08:50] That where the valuations are compelling, and I think both in Rio's experience with.
[08:50] And indeed BHP's experience with Anglo American, valuation was probably a key sticking point.
[08:50] And so and I don't see that actually disappearing, so I think valuations for the.
[08:50] minorrs in terms of conducting M&A is always going to be a challenge and we've seen BHP sort of talk about the.
[08:51] You know, they sort of project pipeline, one to you know, maintain or at least to restore output in that.
[08:51] di want their biggest mine, so that's going to be I think a key focus for BHP and as Paul alluded to earlier.
[08:51] Ro does need a bit more of a medium term copper growth story.
[08:51] It's ramping up Oya Toguy, which is doing very, very well and that still has some some runway to they still have some runway ahead of them.
[08:51] To lift output, but over the medium term, they do need some press, potentially some more developed copper.
[08:51] really great to have you with us Grantss Board of Min and Comodities Ana at Bloomberg Intelligence.😊
[08:51] 🎼We do have more in Australia head every Tuesday at 1040 am if you're watching in Sydney 840 am if you're catching us out of Hong Kong.😊
[08:51] 🎼So tune into to the Bloomberg Australia podcast, you can find that on Applespotify or Bloomberg.com this is Bloomberg.
[08:52] Mind being called an ideological lunatic.
[08:52] A bunch of left wing nut jobss you know i've been called worse things than that.
[08:53] And me, I think is so incredibly valuable we're coming back What magazines were you reading and Ki I don't think I was reading?
[08:53] I things until I was in them so is it paradise ahead or Gattica, maybe somewhere in the middle?
[08:53] 🎼morning good morning. This isbergvan. We back to the opening trade.
[08:53] 🎼Bloomberg money, this is the trade. this is Wall Street week. We to balance of power. You're watching Bberg deal. We to bloomberg this weekend.😊
[08:53] This is Bloomberg television.
[08:53] Anything related to chips?
[08:53] AI trade under pressure in today's session take a look at Japan and kxia losing more than 18% down about 60%.
[08:53] From its peak and we're talking about anything in the chip complex on reports of Chinaa is starting to develop its own Dv machines.
[08:54] Together with ASML, you're watching Canon, you're watching the likes of Nikon that provide these deep ultraviolet lithoography.
[08:54] toolsol which are technology used for less advanced chip players in South Korea, watch SK Hy Nick, Sammsung, anything related to concerns.
[08:54] Around circular deals, heidi, of course we have seen SK hix ABRs close below the $149.
[08:54] July 9th, IPO price, but we do have those investments together with NviDdia that initiative from SK.
[08:54] AI initiative topping $500 billion leading to more concerns that all of these investments and video buying their own product.
[08:54] Can actually lead to more risk. This is what we're watching when it comes to this part of the market.
[08:54] We could see the beneficiaries are always seeing the downside in markets like Japan and Korea and in the US but watch for Chinese chip and semiconductor.😊
[08:55] Equipment related stocks they could see actually advances that media reports saying that the country has begun manufacturing its domestic immersion to UV lithography.😊
[08:55] That local substitution theme remains very resilient there so watching for sort of the other half.😊
[08:55] Of that reaction, as we saw the decline in the likes of ASML in Amsterdam 8.4% lower there, the beneficiaries could take place.😊
[08:55] 🎼In China, also watching Taiwan as well with a monitoring indicator rising to that boom territory, this is Bloomberg.
[08:56] Today, Wayfair sees immense potential in brick and mortar stores.
[08:56] our view was that you, even if the market continued to grow for e commerce, probably a large chunk of the market in this space would stay offline.
[08:56] Kate Gulliver showed me around Wayfair's new 150,000 square foot Atlanta flagship store.
[08:57] Seen us online come into the store they're generally a bit surprised by actually the breadth of what we offer if you're going online.
[08:57] something particular when you come into the store, you walk in, you see the market square, you see all these pillows the deck.
[08:57] So what we're seeing actually is that in store we do really well in some categories that online or.
[08:57] Less percentage of the total, how does technology help in kind of making it seamless online to store and vice versa?
[08:57] B thing is for the customer on the front end, that she can be in the store, that she can actually shop here, go back home.
[08:57] Cle that purchase and if you look at these sort of price tags and everything, there are all these digital tags that's because they're the exact same prices they are online.
[08:57] P that you saw something in the store and then you decided to purchase it online, that it's somehow different and that the offering is different.
[08:57] Actually very consistent, but when she's here, she can have her app open and everything that she's doing here can be very similar to what she's doing at home and i think that consistent.
[08:58] in case you missed this on the opening trade.
[08:58] 🎼TheSt of technology has not been more leisure, right, We all have dishwashers at home, but we don't spend less time in the kitchen. So my thesis is that.
[08:58] Aregate job opportunity RAM does enterprise payments, expenses, revealve, looks at labor market data.
[08:58] They actually find companies that spend more on AI are hiring more so the data shows about six to 12 month lag but 10% more workers isn't.
[08:58] 🎼Just think story there not a churn in the labor market, but then maybe not lower employment absolutelyute, I think there will be shifts right and we can't get.
[08:58] 🎼from that but in aggregate I think there's more opportunity, I think we're going to be doing more types of work and there's a lot of latent work that's just not happening.
[08:58] 🎼is that also the message Ab views on this. I mean, Reveello's analysis said they were hiring more young people.😊
[08:59] 🎼10% overall, 12% more young people don't miss the opening trade live every weekday.
[08:59] 🎼Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. Bloomberg is covering all things. crypto, the people, the transaction.