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【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-28 20:30–21:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 202 段
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[20:30] 3.9% after it posted a beat and a race saying its role as a major tournament sponsor helped boost demand.
[20:30] Alongside strong demand for its low sugar drinks like Coke zero and we are seeing shares of Boeing.
[20:30] ctuating this morning but still up about half a percent trimming some of the gains after it posted better than expected.
[20:30] Cash flow and that is helping to overshadow an earnings miss and another charge tied to the long delayed Air force1 pro.
[20:30] It's a project that has drawn repeated criticism from President Trump for being late and being billions of dollars.
[20:30] 🎼Over budget Johna, thank you that stockout this morning by 0.6%, the broader equity market positive by a10 the two day meeting for the Federal.
[20:30] Kicking off later on today with Michael McKee looking ahead to all of there from Washington, Mike, the focus things have shifted just a little bit.
[20:31] Street Journal report that dropped overnight suggesting that we've had the family fight already and Mike that family fight was the middle of June.
[20:31] Yeah, Chris Waller apparently telling the new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh that he's not sure what the point of the town.
[20:31] Well, we'll find out as time goes on and we'll certainly find out whether they had a big family fight.
[20:31] This meeting is over, it does begin in about an hour or so, and we'll see what we get at 2 pm tomorrow afternoon.
[20:31] Now here's the interesting thing, 87 of the 88 economists who participate in our bloomloomberg survey say.
[20:31] Fed is going to leave rates on hold, and that is the general consensus, although there's an economist meeting here.
[20:31] Washington and everybody's asking me, well, what do you think the odds are that they could surprise us There are a couple of economics firms citadel.
[20:31] With a note last night and of course, our friend Neil du a Renaissance high frequency economics who say the fed will raise rates investors.
[20:32] You'll see about a 36% chance of a hike in the futures markets, and at least two disscents our forecast, probably hammock and.
[20:32] LoganSo where does that leave us going forward well, does Kevin Wal offer any kind of guidance if they're on hold about what they might?
[20:32] Do in September because the market is betting on a September rate cut right now, 100 percent of a.
[20:32] BMO Goldman all see the curve rising in anticipation of a move if the F holds today, so they get a rate increase.
[20:32] Anyway and then why don't we hear from the other FOc members once this is all over, ch waller will get particular attention of peaceki.
[20:32] speech but a lot of people are going to be looking to count noses and see where we might be for september the view is that either they cut this time.
[20:32] Or they cut in september, but right now odds are definitely leaning in favor of the next move being a higher rate.
[20:33] De we've seen it from regional Fed presidents time and time again, not new. you've covered the institution for a long time dissent on the board.
[20:33] That is slightly more unusual division on the board gets your attention, Mike, what do you make of this division?
[20:33] Just the press making too much of it or is something else happening here, Mike, I think it's the kind of normal dynamics you would.😊
[20:33] From a new leader taking over any kind of business and coming in and saying he wants to make major changes, the people who've been running that.
[20:33] basically saying, well, what's wrong with what we've been doing, but if it continues to spread like that and we'll have to see what the.
[20:33] Various task forces come up with then Kevine war's got a problem he doesn't want to lose the board before he even.
[20:33] Really gets into office, so I would imagine there's going to be a lot of persuading going on, a lot of efforts to persuade as much you.
[20:33] anity possible in this decision not sure it is possible with a couple of the hawks mi appreciate it you sir mi mck down in washing.
[20:34] DC, this headline caught my eye dropped just moments ago across the Blinberg terminal Visa comes from Visa to cut 7% of its workforce totalling about.
[20:34] 2600 jobs, the latest from visa Bramo just moments ago and this comes along with their earnings a real question here about.
[20:34] How much this is tied to efficiencies, how much this is just simply as a result of the business, i want to understand whether we're going to be talking about.
[20:34] This potentially as an AI trade or whether this is something that goes to just overhiring in the past.
[20:34] Alongside a lot of the card players reporting better than expected earnings so not coming at a time of thrift.
[20:34] We'll get you more on that story in just a moment but the stock is up at a premarket by some2% let's get back to the Fed, the president putting some pressure on the Federal Reserve.
[20:34] of that right decision tomorrow Kevins fantastic hes got a.
[20:35] Very political he wants to do the right thing, I know what he wants to do, but you need the consent of some people that have.
[20:35] the interest rate in the world former kansas city.
[20:35] Tmas hoick, right in the following I suspect the pressure will be on from the administration to avoid raising rates, especially given that an election is within.
[20:35] T joins us now for more. Thomas, welcome to the program. Are there political considerations on that committee that committee that you.😊
[20:35] Been a part of is that part of the conversation Well, I doubt it that's directly part of the conversation, but the pressure.
[20:35] Certainly there, and I think, you know, I would be mildly surprised I heard when Mike was talking, I'd be mildly surprised if they did raise rates.
[20:35] With the majority of the economists and for several reasons, of course, number one is that.
[20:35] Chne number inflation numbers were down, even though the war reengaged and energy went up, it's now a pause it's coming back down.
[20:36] And so there's uncertainty about whether inflation is under control or not, I think' important.
[20:36] I think also that the rest of the yield curve is higher, so the Fed FMC has an excuse if they want to say.
[20:36] Well, let's look we need to wait seven weeks to get more data and therefore we're going to hold off and the final thing I would say to you is,
[20:36] You know, the yield curve outside of a very short end has increased, so there is some rate increases in play here.
[20:36] That I think the Fed should take advantage of, and lastly, the growth in the balance sheet has slowed.
[20:36] And that will be something that I might point to, so I think that political is kind of in the.
[20:36] Background, I think I'd be very surprised if they raise if there's any doubt about it, and I think there is some doubt, so about look.
[20:37] Why there's even a conversation this morning, Thomas, as you know, the overwhelming majority of people agree with you that this F will keep rates on hold, but their conviction.
[20:37] Le are slightly lower than the otherwise would be because it feels like we've broken out, broken away from that post GFC hand holding that just dominated things where federal.
[20:37] er would tell you exactly what they're going to do at a time before they do it. Why have things changed one and two do you think that's a good development?
[20:37] Well, I think personally, I think it's a very good development because you don't, you know, I was in many meetings where up to the last minute you weren't quite sure given that.
[20:37] All the uncertainties and there's an enormous number of uncertainties in the economy today, so why would you promise the market something if things were to change?
[20:37] So you're wise to do that now I think there's a difference between giving forward guidance and explain why you did something so I would think and I would,
[20:37] Expect a responsible SMC tomorrow afternoon to explain to themselves, here's why we didn't change or here's why we did change.
[20:37] And leave it at that, you don't have to project out three weeks, three months, and I think that's.
[20:38] That's a good thing on kevin's park th, do you think that it's wise to make the press conference optional or do you think that that just introduces more?
[20:38] Conflict with potentially signaling ahead of a meeting that it's going to be a live one or it's going to be one of import.
[20:38] Well, would I don't know if you, I would do it on an as need basis, I would do it less.
[20:38] Often because those I've watched every one of those press conferences and they get pretty stale when they're you know.
[20:38] It's obvious why they've done something, but if they did at every other meeting like they did in the past, it gives them an opportunity to exchange.
[20:38] Use with the press in there or answer questions that could be productive, but every meeting seems to be too much at this point Thomas.
[20:38] think that it is clear to you what the potential reaction function is from the federal reserves, or do you think that that's really been called into question as?
[20:39] of transparencyI don't think it's been caused by lack of transparency do think that.
[20:39] It is difficult for the FOMC to anticipate what they should do.
[20:39] It getss them in a lot of trouble, it actually reduces their options in the decision making process.
[20:39] And how can they possibly do that, you're supposed to have this meeting so that you can exchange views.
[20:39] cus and make a decision when you made the decision ahead of time or when the chairman by signaling himself or herself have made.
[20:39] decisionci that ties everyone else's hands and i think it really reduces trust within the F itself how hard would it be for them.
[20:39] Hight rates in september given the election in noveber i think it'll be very difficult i think they're waiting now.
[20:39] And they have their reasons if they do wait, I think as I explained those will be the reasons they give in September, I think it'll be even more difficult for them to raise rates.
[20:40] Is close enough to the election that why not wait until after the election will be kind of the unspoken truth.
[20:40] Go in that Septemberem meetingNow everyone's saying they're going to raise rates or act, i'm not so sure.
[20:40] Cha his colleaguesI it giving him cover that some of these individuals, even before the meeting are coming out and saying that inflation is.
[20:40] That you have these hawks, would it be useful for him if they dissent because then he can go to the white house and say, I tried my best.
[20:40] I'm you know, i'm getting beoozled over here think I think for a chairman, he wants to be on the winnings.
[20:40] In every instance, and so there's nothing wrong with dissent, and I don't think Kevin's afraid.
[20:40] That I hope he's not as long as he carries a majority and that would be important.
[20:41] Policy groups, that's fine to have the chairman on the losing side, but in the Fed, the culture has become the feded is led by the chairman.
[20:41] And he listens to everyone and he finds a consensus, but he will be the he will set the policy out and they will, the majority will accept them.
[20:41] Polic and if you lose that, I think that the chairman's own credibility, his own shall we say force on the committee?
[20:41] Would be weakened Thomas it's got to see you we appreciate your experience and your input, your insight this morning thank you the former Kansas City F president Thomas Honick there.
[20:41] We get on this Federal Reserve do a news conference making sure who says it has to go an hour, I'm totally with Thomas like why does it go 60 minutes, why does it go 50 minutes?😊
[20:41] So should he just then say, okay, after you've gotten a bad question, forget it, we're done mean it the statement explain the consensus behind the decision.
[20:41] then take a few questions and move on, Mike he's going to send me hate mail You don't have to go through everyone sitting in the room because you don't.😊
[20:41] A journalist, I think we should be promoting that I can't look, I think if you stop that though, then suddenly people will say, well what.
[20:42] A ofWhy are you taking more questions are you afraid of the 10th question being exactly like the previous1 That's fair.
[20:42] impaired as Kevin Walsh has a task force for that but he probably can unveil that, be afraid of receiving the same answers.
[20:42] We can find consensus less Let's get you an update on news out this morning with your Bloomberg brief,onnie Quin has moreynie.😊
[20:42] Hey jo, thank you a flood watch has been posted from western mass to northeast Maryland including new York City through Wednesday.
[20:42] 🎼With heavy rain forecast to drop as much as3 inches. New York City's emergency management department advising residents to allow extra time to get around due to.
[20:42] 🎼The risk of road closures and flood underpasses Meta and Blackro are teaming up to develop and own a data center.
[20:42] 🎼Pa the joint venture will feature one gigawt of compute capacity to accelerate Meta's AI models like Rockwood.😊
[20:43] 🎼And 80% it risk was meta retaining the remaining 20%. And Visa is cutting 7% of its workforce.'s about.
[20:43] 00 jobs because will primarily affect the technology and product teams, according to a memo seen by bloomberg CEO.
[20:43] 🎼Make the company more efficient as it competes in an increasingly tough payments industry and that is your Bloomberg brief John Hey funny thank you thank you that.😊
[20:43] you're tracking that one actually now read the story which came out a bit ago and it says it's not entirely as a result of artificial.
[20:43] Intelligence this comes as it tries to become incredibly more efficient. This is an incredibly competitive area we've already heard from.
[20:43] Block and PayPal they have also done similar cuts B was very vocal about it being tied to AI with 40% of their.
[20:43] Work earlier this year being cut how much is this a result of quickly moving technology in specific fields?
[20:43] And it's not to say that AI is going to eradicate jobs, but it's going to transform the way that certain things are done and the way that efficiencies can really be born out.
[20:44] That stock is higher by 2.1% at the premarket this morning, up next we' set you upt for today and a week ahead plus we'll catch up with Alexanderana Arnoff of JP Morganorgan As.
[20:44] 🎼Management saying F chair Kevin Walsh is vying for credibility in the market, that conversation up next.
[20:45] In case you missed it on Bloomberg crypto, we've just launched the first regulated perpet.
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[20:45] On products before we list them I think there's a lot of both retail and institutional interest in perpetual futures, and we're likely to see that continue to grow.
[20:45] How do you distinguish between legitimate informed trading versus insider trading and we know there's also talks with Congress like" are you going to bend?
[20:45] 🎼People who may have special knowledge that the public doesn't know. So we prohibit members of Congress from trading on our platform. US law already.
[20:46] Prohibits members of the US government from insider trading on information that they have. It has been exciting to watch Congress explore legislating in this space.
[20:46] And we're largely supportive of legislative efforts to target those contracts where they may have insider information and we do that work on the exchange.
[20:46] 🎼To prohibit and attack that activity already don miss bloomberg crypto live Tuesday.
[20:46] 🎼The training day is about to start and you're already looking for that.
[20:47] 🎼The opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe I'm Gu Johnson'm Anna Edwards and I'm Tom McKenzie.
[20:47] This is your opening trade only on playing bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news whenever and where.
[20:47] it I'm Tyler Kenendall in Geneva, Switzerland and this is bloomloomberg.
[20:47] My guess is that this tech investment, it's been relentless, it looks pretty interest rate insensitive to me.
[20:47] The optimism in this sector, my guess is in a way you probably needed two interest rates for the economy one.
[20:47] The AI tech cap back versus everybody else who probably doesn't really need higher rates at this juncture that was Jonathanna pinkgo of US looking for these.
[20:47] The Federalal Reer decision to remain unchanged ultimately tomorrow, but with very low conviction, and I think that's a view shared by a lot of people going tomorrow.
[20:48] 🎼And beyond equity futures right now your scores, set up as follows, shaping up as follows going into the up and and bound were positive by 10th of 1% on the S&P.
[20:48] 🎼00 on the Nasdaq 100 this morning we're down by 0.6 you've seen the tech jters, the pain and the chip stock story over the last few weeks or so.
[20:48] 🎼We're down by 20% plus since the high of June and the reasons for it building a building a building, is it a price move looking for a now?
[20:48] 🎼Or do we actually have a fundamental change in the story now with developments in China. Have they come up with some sort of competitive edge to flood.
[20:48] MarketWith cheap memory chips, which is what's really tanking the Korean stock market in particular, is there a real problem with respect to.
[20:48] And push back from capital markets or is this a momentary blip in time ultimately we don't know the answer, but we will get a tell with respect to some of the earnings.
[20:48] We get later this week tied to the semiconductor to the hyperscales let's get to the annex, not just for the hyperscales but the chip names too.
[20:49] 🎼Kay Heinix reporting earnings in the next 24 hours alongside a F aid decision and earnings from Microsoft and MeT that's going to be a pack.😊
[20:49] 🎼24 hours and we'll here from Apple and Amazon on Thursday, looking ahead to all of that and a whole lot more with equity futures slightly positive.😊
[20:49] On the S&P 500 and bond yields slightly lower, the Federal Resve's two day meeting kicks off later this morning, Okana Aroff of JP Morgangan As.
[20:49] Wriing Fed chair Kevin Walsh is trying to establish credibility with this market through the tough talk and the task forces while avoiding hiking.
[20:49] Big issue is whether the long end of the curve will buy the eventual cuts he hopes to graduate Oa joins us now for moreana good morning.
[20:49] you think it's just a communication exercise. So first of all, let me start by saying, I do think what Kevin wassh is doing, I don't disagree with it at all never thought.
[20:49] That forward guidance had much use other than sort of tying the entire Fed to these promises that the market was parsing endlessly if you ever.
[20:49] Actually graph the dots plot against the Fed funds rate, they were miles and miles apart for a number of years, so there was very limited use.
[20:50] it I thought. And now you have a Fed that is sort of like this big infing family a little bit. There's obviously a lot of dissent, and there are sort of.
[20:50] Unique voting members, all of whose opinions count, especially in the absence of forward guidance, which, as I said, tended to kind of bind them all together.
[20:50] I don't think that's a bad thing because it allows the market also to kind of focus on the ball, meaning fundamentals earnings.
[20:50] And things that matter as opposed to what is the Fed going to do in the next meeting, Having said that, I think the tough talk around being focused on inflation wise.
[20:50] It is absolutely the correct thing to do, I think underneath it all he's hoping he's not going to have to do it because of course you've got the administration law.
[20:50] Very closely. and I think he's hoping that he can sort of wait out this inflation move up and then.
[20:50] Eventually, try to cut rates at some point next year. but I think the meeting this week is likely and no action, possibly high.
[20:51] At the next meeting, if we continue to see inflation and stronger economic growth, et cetera, but I think the bar for consistent hikes is fairly high.
[20:51] You would have to see consistently higher inflations. You touched on something important, the relationship between the front end of the curve, how you communicate about short.
[20:51] RatesRe between all of that and what happens further out along the curve. What's that relationship like now, It is very limited.
[20:51] At Beth, so the expectation even in 2024 was that as the Fed gets to cutting, you're going to see this rally at the long end of the curve.
[20:51] It did not materialize and interestingly, you could say that more recently, long rates have been trading with oil, but in reality they've.
[20:51] Disconnected from trading with the oil they're really moving off of the fiscal spend, and that's what the long end really cares about, the fiscal spend, the inflationary backdrop.
[20:51] The supply demand of treasuries, these are the things that are going to determine the level of rates and what we haven't yet seen.
[20:51] Long term inflation break or know breakevens, the 10 year breakevens have remained fairly subdued if we were to see those to.
[20:52] Actually move up, they're actually slightly lower today versus February or when this conflict started. if they were to actually start moving up, that could be another.
[20:52] ilFor a higher tenure and the tenure has been really kind of bearishly tilted if you think about how it reacts to surprise.
[20:52] On the upside, with respect to inflation, with respect to stronger economic data, you see more of a reaction in yields going up.
[20:52] hen you do and yields going down, for example, when we had the lower than expected CPI print, so in other words, you think that if the fed were to hike rates.
[20:52] That wouldn't really materially lower long term yields. So that actually may keep long term yields at bay.
[20:52] Keep them from, let's say, reaching that 5% level, if we operate under the assumption that a 5% is more likely than a three and a half, which I think is.
[20:52] I think kind of showing the intent to keep inflation in check here does matter, but ultimately.
[20:53] Long rates care about the fiscal spend and they care about the inflation backdrop and they care about supply demand, and by the way, our largest foreign purchaser.
[20:53] Of treasuries, right China has reduced the amount of treasuries they have from over a trillion to about $700 billion, so some of those trends.
[20:53] Are underway and we are not immune to them do you think that hyperscalers and other tech issuers can keep crowding out the market?
[20:53] For Treasuries and for other long term debt, given the pushback that they've seen recently. So when you say crowding out the market.
[20:53] Flooding the market with debt, flooding with issuance and this idea that increasingly they're in competition with the U.S. government and for other sovereigns.
[20:53] I think there is some substance to that for sure you've seen over half a trillion dollar of hyperscalealar issues right, and this is the big issue.
[20:53] That this capital intensive spend is now hitting the credit markets as opposed to being funded out of their cash balances and so they absolutely.
[20:53] You could create competition, the broader investment grade space can create competition right for the Treasury, so these are the supply demand.
[20:54] Dynamics that I think are much more important than what the Fed does very short term at the front end of the curve good to.
[20:54] Thank you for being here, Oksana Aroff there of JP Morgan Asset Management on the so called, I'm going to say communication exercise that this Federal Reserve is working through.😊
[20:54] Right now a lot of people think that it's a communication exercise and that's the reason why the question that you've been asking amory is a really important one if they don't.
[20:54] Hike rates at some point have they lost the power of the communication exercise entirely well you have to set deterrence right and you can do that through rhetoric, but then if you don't follow through at some point.
[20:54] Then basically you're a paper tiger that's what it is it would be quite a shock if they hide tomorrow relative to expectations I know that conviction is quite low.
[20:54] Or at least has been reduced because we have a new Fed chairs not willinging to communicate in quite the same way, but consensus over overwhelming is no change at tomorrow's meeting.😊
[20:54] Precedented in modern times when there's only a 30% chance or less than a 60 or 70% chance baked into F funds rates for the F.
[20:55] Com up tomorrow that F decision and this line up right here Jud Emmamanuel ofco, Claudius Sam of new century advises the former Kansas.
[20:55] 🎼City F President Esther George Cman of Newveen, I think we know what Esther would do right'd for a hike.
[20:55] Com on inflation, what do you think she'd throw a roll, what do you think she'd do with the family fight fight she road down the towel.
[20:55] 🎼Yeah, absolutely shut it down high grace shut it down the coverage starts tomorrow your week begins tomorrow.
[20:55] 🎼Wednesday just around the corner what is this the global economic playbook is being rewritten and the of.
[20:55] 🎼How moving in real time to see where the world is headed, you have to look where the action is I'm Ha Linda in Singapore.
[20:55] 🎼M those she in Mumb, We to imagine the new economy podcast each month we dive deep into how was.😊
[20:55] 🎼Most exciting rising economies are shaping the global future join the conversation subscribe to imagine on.😊
[20:56] 🎼todayDo you mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nu jobs you know been called.
[20:56] on the place23 and me I think is so incredibly valuable, we're coming back.
[20:56] De story to when you're hot on the trail of something, you know that it's very exciting. What magazines were you reading?
[20:56] Okay I don't think I was reading magazines until I was in them You are on the cover of all of these Oh and there's many, many more but we' up.
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[20:58] I think we're headed toward a k shaped industry where you're going to see a bunch of winners and some folks that have more.
[20:58] Lessons that they have to learn as they come out of this period of time.
[20:58] Bringing you the latest geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens I'm David Garra and Solaruni in Bolivia and this is.
[20:58] Tech sells off again, 30 minutes until the start of your cash equity trade, I'm Danny.