🎙 直播转录Bloomberg TV+Codex · 实盘不做把握 6/10标签:live_transcript
北京时间·🕒 发布 01:30:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 01:30:01·⚡ 决策 07-30 01:32:37 +2m36s·89.6 天前
Brookfield与NextEra拟在肯塔基Paducah建设1000亿美元AI数据中心与电力园区
事件确认Brookfield与NextEra参与Paducah大型AI数据中心及配套电力基础设施,方向上利好AI电力基建叙事。
📄 原文Bloomberg TV+↗ 原文
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】 来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+ 时段:2026-07-30 01:00–01:30(Asia/Shang…
不做 NextEra Energy(NEE.US)
项目长期到2032年且缺少PPA价格、客户承诺和回报率披露;NEE.US市值约1853亿美元,当日也未出现同向重定价,短线edge不足。
不做 Brookfield Asset Management(BAM.US)
Brookfield参与开发属长期AI基础设施叙事,尚未量化管理费、资本收益或客户落位;直播前已被媒体扩散,当前不做。
不做 Brookfield Corporation(BN.US)
集团经济归属和融资结构不清,BN.US当日下跌且缺少可回测的短期收入/利润传导,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- WSJ报道Brookfield与NextEra将在DOE Paducah场地合作开发1000亿美元AI数据中心园区,披露容量、完工节奏和NextEra负责电力基础设施。市场反应:截至17:30 UTC,NEE.US跌0.48%、BAM.US跌1.96%。
- FT同日报道该项目首期预计2028年投运、2032年完成,并强调Brookfield仍在与大型科技公司洽谈参与。
- 能源部长Chris Wright在直播中确认DOE出租联邦土地、1.2GW数据中心、2GW天然气发电及未来四年分阶段投运,但该段属于对当日已公开消息的访谈复述。市场反应:直播时相关股票未出现明确利好重定价。
关键理由
- 事件确认Brookfield与NextEra参与Paducah大型AI数据中心及配套电力基础设施,方向上利好AI电力基建叙事。
- WSJ披露项目至2032年完成、1.2GW算力容量、4.6GW新增专用发电资源,NextEra将建设并拥有电力基础设施,但未披露可锁定收入、PPA价格或投资回报率。
- NextEra市值约1853亿美元、Brookfield相关上市主体市值约752亿至932亿美元,项目长期且分阶段落地,当前直播只是盘中复述早些时候已公开新闻,短线预期差不足。
主要风险
- 项目仍需长期建设、客户落位、融资、许可和电网接入推进,2032年完成节奏不适合短线事件交易。
- 当日NEE.US跌0.48%、BAM.US跌1.96%、BN.US跌1.72%,市场未给出明确同向重定价确认。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
内部库未命中该具体项目的已量化收益,但命中AI数据中心电力项目存在融资、客户与执行风险的相关讨论。
检索:NextEra Energy AI data center power infrastructure capex Brookfield risks - 做多前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 none
定量库显示AI数据中心电力链有真实需求,但主要数字集中在电源/PSU/HVDC等设备商,未能证明本项目对NEE或Brookfield短期收入弹性。
检索:NextEra data center power AI 数据中心 电力 负荷 capex
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
- query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 30,226 字
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-30 01:00–01:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 222 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。
--- 转录正文 ---
[01:00] gas prices will likely follow and it's part of the reason why of course, rising prices are bringing us to Kentucky coming up this hour as the energy.
[01:00] Secretary cuts the ribbon effectively on what will be a new data center project powered by nuclear100 billion.
[01:00] And brookfield joint venture and we'll talk with the energy Secretary chris wright about that and of course says we're having this conversation around utility costs.
[01:00] Around gas costs, it all points to inflationary forces at work and that is what the federal reserves is grappling with as we speak are just.
[01:00] away from that rate decision, which actually is a live one. the market thinks that there is a greater likelihood the fed's going to hold, but they haven't ruled out.
[01:00] more uncertainty than we've had in some time for a F meeting, which is why you'll want to be here for our special coverage that starts in just a half hours.
[01:00] So we've got a lot to talk about indeed we do and let's check on how the markets are shaping up outside of oil ahead of the fed's rate decision as we turn to charlie pe.
[01:01] I thank you very much kie and Joe, yes, we are looking at a down day here, perhaps putting it mildly with an almost 800 point drop right now.
[01:01] on the Dow Jones industrial average, we're at 51,965 on the Dow down 781 points.
[01:01] 🎼A decline right now of one and a half% the S&P 500 index is down 56 for the S& a decline of8 tenths.
[01:01] 🎼Nsdaq down9 tenths of 1% traders gearing up for the Fed decision oil is jumping. the market also bra for results from.
[01:01] Two of the biggest AI spenders that'll be meta platforms and Microsoft F for the close of trading right now Microsoftt hire by 510.
[01:01] To1% meta lower by under 1/10 of 1% right now and of course, Amazon and Apple rounding out for the meg70.
[01:01] Again, we've got the Nasdaq 100 index down 1.1% the socks, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor.
[01:01] Indexed down now by 3.9% and all of this with the Vs of the Vs currently just below 20 your two year.
[01:02] 4.33% of the ten0 year, 4.64% the 30 year, 5.12% gold is up2.
[01:02] And a half dollars the ounce little changed flat on the day at 4031, but crude continues to be an ongoing major story right now.
[01:02] WTI 84-49 a barrel up 6.6% barrel of Brent crude in 1947 now brrent surging.
[01:02] 7.6% will' have a whole lot more on the energy outlook for you coming up in just a moment when we speak to energy secretary ch.
[01:02] RightPside Trump, meanwhile, says the U.S will hit ir Iran hard after a recent attack targeted a military base in Jordan.
[01:02] As clashes have caused Brenent crude oil to surge, taking oil majors higher, shares of exxon Mobi they are.
[01:02] Advancing today along with Conico Phillips and Chevron right now, we are looking at exxon mobile shares and they are gaining.
[01:03] Today, by just about 3% on shares of Exxon mobile, some of the other stories that we're following for you, Doordash building its own.
[01:03] Delivery drones that has gained the necessary approvals to operate them commercially, it is the latest in its effort to delegate more.
[01:03] 🎼Orders to robots as a way of cutting delivery times and caterpillar shares are falling today. They are plunged.
[01:03] Down by roughly 6% after Baird cut its recommendation on the industrial giant and slashed its price target.
[01:03] 🎼Recaping here, we are looking at a down day for the doubt, the S&P and the Nasdaq composite index, the Nasdaq 100 index lower now by1.
[01:03] S&P 500 index down 7% that crew quote bears repeating 8452 on wTI up now by.
[01:03] Just about6.6% Reapping F decision coming up at 2 o'clock i'm char Pellette and that show mat.
[01:03] ett you very much indeed.
[01:04] this is a market that is braced not only for a great decision from the federal reserve but also is waiting and washing to see what happens in the middle East.
[01:04] The U.S. is promising to retaliate against Iran, potentially more strikes on the way after Iranian missiles targeted U..
[01:04] Forces in jordan that is why we are seeing, as charlie mentioned, higher oil prices today back above 90 a barrel on brrenent crude with a lot of.
[01:04] Volaatil obviously having happened in the energy space and a lot of those higher energy costs, having shown that they were feeding flu into inflation when they were on the.
[01:04] They have led to lower inflationary prints most recently because gasoline prices dropped so steadily, but it's very uncertain as to what the trajectory.
[01:04] Will be and that is why it's such a tough call for fomc members as they make their rate decision today knowing that this is.
[01:04] side problems that higher rates can't necessarily solve for and yet if they want to promise that they're going to beat back inflation in may1.
[01:05] credibilityreed if they go ahead and high well and they're going to be looking at the core as well, but surely questions are going to be centered around this very issue when reporters like.
[01:05] Michael McKee have a chance to go back and forth with the chair, we're going to bring all this to you live as we always do, beginning with a decision at 2 pm the news conference at 23.
[01:05] Our special coverage starts less than a half an hour from now live from New York Kaylee, these stories all collide somehow when we talk about energy price.
[01:05] And you introduce the idea of data center, which many believe is driving electric bills higher, and it started a conversation about a close.
[01:05] Cirrcuit around these facilities and here's a new take on this you probably heard about the next era story it was out first.
[01:05] This morning, Extera teaming up with Brookfield to build 100 billion data center campus in this case, though.
[01:05] It's going to be run by a nuclear facility in Kentucky, they're basically relighting a nuclear plant powered by uranium.
[01:05] Will home a data center so this is a generating plant that is coming with it. it all feeds into this rate praer protection notion weve heard.
[01:06] So much from the president about he was just at the EPA last week announcing an expansion of that ratepayer protection pledge pledged she essentially wanted these data center.
[01:06] To be bringing their own power to be insulating everyday consumers from the higher utility costs that with could come with them this is down.
[01:06] The gaseous diffusion plant and the secretary of Energy is there right now because the administration is very much supporting this effort we're glad to have.
[01:06] Chris Wright with us, Mr. Secretary, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and radio, it's good to see you and it looks like the weather's nice today in.
[01:06] This plant made uranium for the US during the Cold War privately funded, so I'm curious what is the extent of.
[01:06] Government involvement and exposure here other than simply transferring the site, is that why you're in Kentuckyent?
[01:06] Yeah I'm here, Joe you summarized it well, we're here just to celebrate the Department of energy is leasing these federals.
[01:07] Lands to multiple private companies to build some new nuclear technologies as you spoke about, also to build two.
[01:07] Gawatts of new natural gas power generation that'll serve both a 1.2 gigawatt data center that'll be built.
[01:07] Here that's the majority of that 100 billion dollars, but also to add 800 megawatts of additional power onto the.
[01:07] Rid here, which will benefit all of the surrounding states, this is sort of a cornerstone move of the trump ratepayer protection pledge.
[01:07] Driving prices down and industry and job creation up as'm you're well aware Mr. secretary.
[01:07] Live conversation happening in and around financial markets right now as to whether there is over investmenttment happening into artificial intelligence.
[01:07] And the infrastructure that powers it if we're building perhaps too many data centers, and I wonder Mr. secretary, if you can still hear me there.
[01:07] A concern here that if it is, in fact an over surplus of data centers, is the power that comes with them going to be pulled off?
[01:08] The grid as well as this power that stays you say over investment, i'm sure over investment in artificial intelligence and.
[01:08] The secretary is having a little bit of difficulty hearing us we'll try to reestablish that connection, joe, but this is obviously the conversation that you've been seeing happen.
[01:08] In real time, in a lot of these technology stocks in particular, the notion that perhaps all of this investment isn't necessarily going to pay off.
[01:08] is going to be front and center as we consider the hyperscalear results that we're going to get after the bell today the market is going to be watching their capex numbers, perhaps.
[01:08] Forecast capex much more closely than even the earnings themselves on some of these very concerns that all starts tonight.
[01:08] Microsoft is going to be the big one we're looking at with Me, we've got also Amazon and Apple coming up all in the next two days, interesting next era was holding up pretty well.
[01:08] It just turned slightly negative when I saw $100 billion in that headline this morning, I thought it would be an excuse to sell because that is the fear, right?
[01:09] We keep dumping money into this thing and all of a sudden it's like we were laying fiber in 1999 again The fact the matter is though, Kaylee, we wake up every day to it,
[01:09] It's just part of the new cycle right now and these hyperscales are committed the question is for how long i guess.
[01:09] It continued to tolerate that commitment or punish them for it further, those are certainly the questions that the market is contending with, not even.
[01:09] Including the political considerations around this which of course, come back to the notion of power and utility costs, hence the rate.
[01:09] te pledge we were just hearing the energy secretary discuss and chris wright is back with us now, m. secretary, i apologize for the technical difficulty.
[01:09] My question to you was around this notion that we're over investing in data centers that too much is being poured into the infrastructure and I wonder if.
[01:09] Does turn out that we have a surplus of these if you expect the power that is being generated by them as part of these large projects.
[01:09] that that won't ultimately leave the gra if we see some kind of data center collapse.
[01:10] No, it definitely won't leave the grid In fact, it's one of the great things data center development is doing is its funding and underwriting the development of.
[01:10] So much new power generation capacity look I think the upside for artificial intelligence is tremendous, but if there did.
[01:10] Turnout to be over investment and surplus of artificial intelligence we would love to have the extra power that'll allow reshoring.
[01:10] Manufacturing in the US and continue downward pressure on electricity prices of.
[01:10] is one I'm sure you're familiar with, and I wonder if what you're announcing today in Kentuckyenty is an answer to it.
[01:10] For of a closed circuit data center from what it sounds like, would that include water as well, will you have your own water supply for this campus?
[01:10] Absolutely, but as you know, a modern data center uses precious little water.
[01:11] Cose loop cooling systems, you build a giant data center and it uses as much water as a McDonald's.
[01:11] We do have water supply here, we are building new power generation, but you're right using federal lands that was already in adult.
[01:11] Ausstr site during the early part of the Cold War and repurposing it for a data center, tremendous community support to have that development.
[01:11] Going on here and we are doing this at multiple locations across the department of energy, taking old industrial sites, bringing.
[01:11] to communities that are hungry for these investments, for these tax dollars and for these job opportunities opportunity.
[01:11] Is there Mr. secretary to tap federal lands further, where should we be looking for the projects of the future?
[01:11] There there's a lot of them, you know, we have 17 national labs and then additional federal sites, so we announced a big one in.
[01:11] Portmouth, Ohio, we have this one in paducka, you'll hear about one in south Carolinaina, you're going to hear about one out in washington.
[01:12] anddaho so we have a lot of federal lands and there's a lot of interest to develop and again, not just data.
[01:12] In power production, but right here in paducah in Kentucky, we're going to have a new company called General matterer.
[01:12] Developing modern uranium enrichment, essentially a more modern way to do what the giant buildings down here were built to do to.
[01:12] To fuel the commercial reactors that are coming in the nuclear Renaissance so a lot of new technology and industrial development across.
[01:12] OurWell, we don't see those buildings behind you right now, Mr. secretary, if you're watching bloomberg tv right now or with us on YouTubetu see.
[01:12] Chris, right in front of a beautiful open field with some trees, what's the timeline, how long will it take for you to get this site up and running?
[01:12] And actually producing electrons to create whatever this data center will be cranking on.
[01:13] So the data center should be under construction in the next six months, there actually is construction already underway.
[01:13] can't see it because it's off to my right not in your camera, there's already 100 acres under intense development right now to build new uranium.
[01:13] Ricchment capabilities and then the power generation at data center will come on in phases over the next four years, but simply.
[01:13] A large commercial development already started here in padducah, Kentuckyent, and this is again with the Trumpmp administration.
[01:13] It about let's build additional energy generation to put downward pressure on prices and with that additional power we're going to generate.
[01:13] Let's bringmer jobs, American industrial might, and lead artificial intelligence right here in the United States of America.
[01:13] Well, of course utility prices are one thing, prices at the pump mist. secretary are another and we have seen those climbing back.
[01:13] Above $4 a gallon as we're seeing oil prices today once again spiking as the president's threatening to hit iran hard.
[01:14] Once again, how high realistically should we expect prices to go if there is no immediate?
[01:14] Reopening of the straight of forus in the near term if the diplomatic process is indeed not going to be successful and we see a return.
[01:14] actionWell, if there's military action, it's relatively brief.
[01:14] We are using the united states military today to escort out oil and natural gas out of the Strrat of hoorms.
[01:14] He's gone remarkably well, little reported in the news and probably that's because we don't talk about it too much, but we are restoring supply.
[01:14] Of global oil and refined products to the world out of that region independent on how much.
[01:14] umb for us in terms of how much is actually getting through the street day trail.
[01:15] Average right now out of the arabian gu region is 13 million barrels a day, about half of that flowing through the strait.
[01:15] And half of that through bypass pipelines, so we're about two thirds of the delivery of oil out of the Arabian Gulf region.
[01:15] As we were before the conflict started that's really great information Mr secretary and i wonder your thoughts on.
[01:15] is now the involvement of houthhi rebels from yemen creating a potential second choke point, as we've discussed in the.
[01:15] This is something that Saudidi a had already tried to pipeline around with regard to the Strt of for a bypass.
[01:15] So the bypass, as javier blos put that that you're talking to saudi arabia about where additional pipe could be installed to get around.
[01:15] second show point there is a bypass to the bypass called the Suez Canal.
[01:15] So you can go across to the Red Sea and instead of going south down to the bandel Mandeb, you can go through.
[01:16] The Suez canal that is happening as we speak, there's both oil tanker capacity through the Suez and there is a pipeline that.
[01:16] same route, both of which will be employed to divert more oil that way.
[01:16] Of, as we consider the supply of oil, we also have to factor in the reserves that the U.S. has and that the rest of the world has been.
[01:16] Tapping into over the last several months as this conflict has been ongoing, m. secretary, we know the SPR is at the lowest level in four decades.
[01:16] More than that and i wonder how much lower realistically it can be allowed to go where the operational floor is and what.
[01:16] The plan is if we reach it we are a long way from the operational floor i've heard some people.
[01:16] That don't understand, not you, but i've heard people who don't understand how the SPR works saying oh it can't go below X amount of barrels that's just not.
[01:17] TrueThey seem to misunderstand that it's just oil in these caverns and otherwise it's air all of these caverns are full of a combination of water.
[01:17] And they are always 100% full we just use the water to displace the oil out of these caverns.
[01:17] Planned sales we have, which will run into this fall, will still have meaningful supply over 200 million barrels of oil in our SPR.
[01:17] The end of those releases and what's great about the releases we're doing through the trump administration is we're not selling these barrels.
[01:17] Trading them at the end of the day, these releases will add more than 40 million barrels a day to the storage in the area.
[01:17] PR after the conflict than we had before the conflict started these are additive not subtractive4.
[01:17] 9ine cents a gallon on average nationally today, Mr secretary, is it even possible to forecast where we'll be by the end of summer?
[01:17] labor day it's not possible to forecast, but look all i can say is.
[01:18] Voline prices today are a dollar a gallon cheaper than they were four years ago in the bidden administration that was just.
[01:18] About a war on fossil fuels and selling fear here we are ending Iran's nuclear ambitions, ending a 46.
[01:18] to do with the war in Ukraine as still have gasoline prices that didn't interrupt the flow of oil it was just the fear.
[01:18] Of the interruption of the flow of oil, the biden administration feared that russia would slow their exports.
[01:18] O a refined diesel and therusians did not reduce their export just fear and bad management they drained theR.
[01:18] And they sold those barrels and didn't replace them, so misunderstanding energy and selling fear has not been effective.
[01:18] Trump administrations about being honest, about being fact based, about solving our geopolitical problems and balancing our energy markets.
[01:19] I'm confident we will see gasoline prices continue their long term trend downward later this year and of course we are working.
[01:19] Every day at a lower prices for the american consumers Well, you mentioned there m. secretary finally, the question of russian diesel which.
[01:19] Now is not being exported because so many refineries have been targeted by ukrainian drone strikes i understand that.
[01:19] MostGas that consumers are seeing at the pumpet may be one thing and you may expect prices to go lower, but is the same to be said.
[01:19] For diesel, which also powers a lot of our economy' right.
[01:19] On Russian refineries have reduced the supply of diesel globally it's reflected in prices the best offset we have.
[01:19] Americanfining complex we are refining today more diesel, more gasoline, more jet fuel than ever in american history.
[01:19] America has been the savior for world energy markets during this crisis and will continue to do so, but yes.
[01:20] Of course we want to see diesel prices come down, increasing the throughput from themerican refineries, something the EPA and the Trumpmp administration.
[01:20] Is working with our refiners to just again, move towards more common sense regulations and how refineries operate that's allowing.
[01:20] Increased output, but to truly get diesel prices down low again, that'll take another year or so of.
[01:20] In't in Trump's leadership, but the trajectory will be downward downward with diesel prices, downward with gasoline prices.
[01:20] All right, we'll leave it there m. secretary, thank you so much for joining us the energy secretary chris wright joining us live from kenty at the site of again one.
[01:20] 100 billion dollar data center project being spearheaded by next era and brookfield and as we reflect on our conversation with the secretary, we turn now.
[01:20] To our political panelist, Jeannie shanzano, a bloomberg politics contributor, democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at harvard kennedy schools's ash center joins us alongside.
[01:21] ro today Republicanublican strategist and political director at the american principless project kie, i'd like to come to you on where we be.
[01:21] Conversation with the secretary around the issue of data centers on the costs associated with them and pushback that we are seeing from the ameran election.
[01:21] When we were with you in georgia for the primary, we heard a lot about data centers and how unhappy voters are with them when they come.
[01:21] to their communities is what the energy department is supporting here that they're doing and making sure it generates its own power.
[01:21] Using federal lands to do it the answer, they could be an absolutely fantastic solution, potentially we need to see how these projects play out.
[01:21] You know Joee correctly said iss the ultimate niImB issue, not in my backyard, we all need data centers, we need that.
[01:21] Energy, we all, whether we say, oh, I don't use AI well, just because you aren't using chat you PT to create an image, you're using AI.
[01:21] it's being integrated into everything we do, so we need to have data centers, but they need to make sure it doesn't have a disproportionate impact on the community around it.
[01:22] From Georgia, and as you're talking about we were here, my home county of Cal County recently rezoned.
[01:22] 829 acres of rural farmland to accommodate a new data center project that's coming in, and a domain has been used.
[01:22] take the land around it to run the power lines, and that has created a massive pushback within the community, but if this is being put on federal land,
[01:22] And all of the power was being self contained, I would think we'd have a dramatically different reaction, so I'm glad to see this innovation coming on.
[01:22] Per energy and think it really could be a fantastic solution going forward what's your take on this, Jeannie, if this is an issue that.
[01:22] ss plan to on. We've already got a data center moratorium in your state of New York. What's your reaction to.
[01:22] This approach, a campus that's self contained off the grid closed circuit, is that what developed.
[01:23] Can walk into a town hall meeting and. I think it's going to depend on how this is.
[01:23] Roed out you have real questions, Joe, about are they bypassing the public in doing this?
[01:23] Are they taking into concern the public's reaction to this and how it impacts that?
[01:23] Because while these are federal lands, they are surrounded by communities of Americans who remain concerned about.
[01:23] These projects, there's also the issue of transparency you've got people saying that developers have signed disclosure non disclosure.
[01:23] Agreements, rather with local officials keeping residents in the dark, you've also got resource constraints and you know you mentioned.
[01:23] But let's just look at Floridada, you have somebody like ron deantis sayingmeric citizens are in his case floridians should.
[01:23] be paying one more dime to subsidize tech billionaires and so all of those things remain.
[01:24] On federal land or whether you are on, you know, you use public land or private land, so these concerns remain.
[01:24] And it's going to depend an awful lot on how they're rolled out and how the community is educated on the impact, but I have to agree with disantis.
[01:24] Americans should not be paying to fund tech billionaires, these things are draining resources and costing America.
[01:24] And that's why I agree with Hochcal on the moratorium, so you figure out the best way to roll this out, that's to the benefit of everybody.
[01:24] And not to the benefit of the very, very wealthy tech billionaires and finally, Jeannie, well, we did talk to him about.
[01:24] That and utility costs there is the question of gas prices as well and he said he can't forecast what they will become labor day or perhaps where they will be coming.
[01:24] November is that not the biggest problem for Republicansublican right now, is that they aren't able to say definitively.
[01:25] Americans are going to see lower prices at the pump by the time they go to vote Yeah, I mean, it's an enormous problem for them the prices are.
[01:25] Really, really impacting them at the polls, the war is wildly unpopular and of course a lot of that is tied to the price.
[01:25] of gas and oil and as we listen to the administration, not only camps, they predict what the prices will be.
[01:25] Can't predict how we see this war come to an end. And that remains an enormous albatross hanging over their head as they march into.
[01:25] termAll right, Jeannie, thank you so much, as always, Jeannie Shanzno helping us walk up to our F.
[01:25] Reserve special coverage, De visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. thanks as well to Katie Frost a Republican strategist from the American principal.
[01:25] Project i'm joe matthew alongside kylee lines in washington, the countdown now set five minutes away from special coverage a half hour away from breaking news.
[01:25] From the Federal Resve and we're joined in our Washington Bureau by Anna Wong Bloomberg economiccons chief USS. economist, it's good to see you, Anna.
[01:26] About a 30% chance we're told of a hike. Do you roll your eyes at this or is this a real possibility, I think it's a possibility for sure.
[01:26] We have seen that Kevin Walsh has reduced forward guidance, and that's the reason why so there's such a big fat chunk of distribution.
[01:26] That he might move our baseline view is he won't move because we did have very soft inflation data, payrolls.
[01:26] Pointed his task force will only be reporting results at the end of this year, and i think so and there will be a major.
[01:26] Dward revisions to inflation in septem, I think he would be pushing to buy two more months of time for.
[01:26] For rate hikeSo if a hold it is to be, how hawkish can a hold be, Well, I think the fact that there is a.
[01:26] Live press conference is a signal of how hawkish it is, so suppose that there's no rate hike as we expect.
[01:27] based on what Kevin Wart has said, there shouldn't be a July press conference at all because he used to say that.
[01:27] If there's nothing important to say, then you shouldn't have it. So the fact that he is hosting one suggests that he will convey.
[01:27] The degree of family feud, the meeting today has said there will be a good fight if he convey in that meeting.😊
[01:27] That in fact, a sizable majority wants to hike, then it basically is a signal that September would be life.
[01:27] And if inflation and perils data did not turn out favorable for a hold, then there would be a hike in September.
[01:27] We factor in politics into that dynamic, though, you're creeping up on a midterm election and a president who doesn't want to see rate hikes at any time of year.
[01:27] The chair must be aware of this and that's what's got this narrative started in some corners that this might be his last chance.
[01:27] d argument for hiking today is that he wouldn't be hiking closer to the election.
[01:28] Eomics don't work that way. so based on our examination of the time it takes for a hike to transmit to the economy.
[01:28] Three or four months, so if you start hiking today, it actually hits right before the election.
[01:28] This means that the only if election is the consideration, the only time to hike is after the election Well, that doesn't leave very much time.
[01:28] There's officials who want to see a hike in the calendar here 2026, can I also ask you if the president primarily wants to see mortgage rates go down?
[01:28] If the fed were to hike today, could it not actually have the effect of suppressing the long end because it shows that they're serious about the inflation fight.
[01:28] And actually potentially lowering the rates, at least that the president cares about, Yeah, I think there are many things to think about and how to push along.
[01:28] And down part of it is credibility. But when you look at inflation expectations, including the ten year inflation compensation, it's actually.
[01:29] been going down since Kevin Wart has become the Fed chair. So really, what's driving the long end up is.
[01:29] Just of including tariffs, because the fact that tariff revenues are down and the refunds, 80 billion of tariff fund has happened.
[01:29] This year is actually causing people to be more worried about the fiscal situation that is independent of inflation credibility.
[01:29] Because I think right now Kevine Walsh already has a lot of that so since we are having a newsest conference today, what would you ask the chair if you had the chance?
[01:29] I would ask the chair that what does he think about the speed of transmission of policy lag whether the F state?
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-30 01:00–01:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 222 段
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[01:00] gas prices will likely follow and it's part of the reason why of course, rising prices are bringing us to Kentucky coming up this hour as the energy.
[01:00] Secretary cuts the ribbon effectively on what will be a new data center project powered by nuclear100 billion.
[01:00] And brookfield joint venture and we'll talk with the energy Secretary chris wright about that and of course says we're having this conversation around utility costs.
[01:00] Around gas costs, it all points to inflationary forces at work and that is what the federal reserves is grappling with as we speak are just.
[01:00] away from that rate decision, which actually is a live one. the market thinks that there is a greater likelihood the fed's going to hold, but they haven't ruled out.
[01:00] more uncertainty than we've had in some time for a F meeting, which is why you'll want to be here for our special coverage that starts in just a half hours.
[01:00] So we've got a lot to talk about indeed we do and let's check on how the markets are shaping up outside of oil ahead of the fed's rate decision as we turn to charlie pe.
[01:01] I thank you very much kie and Joe, yes, we are looking at a down day here, perhaps putting it mildly with an almost 800 point drop right now.
[01:01] on the Dow Jones industrial average, we're at 51,965 on the Dow down 781 points.
[01:01] 🎼A decline right now of one and a half% the S&P 500 index is down 56 for the S& a decline of8 tenths.
[01:01] 🎼Nsdaq down9 tenths of 1% traders gearing up for the Fed decision oil is jumping. the market also bra for results from.
[01:01] Two of the biggest AI spenders that'll be meta platforms and Microsoft F for the close of trading right now Microsoftt hire by 510.
[01:01] To1% meta lower by under 1/10 of 1% right now and of course, Amazon and Apple rounding out for the meg70.
[01:01] Again, we've got the Nasdaq 100 index down 1.1% the socks, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor.
[01:01] Indexed down now by 3.9% and all of this with the Vs of the Vs currently just below 20 your two year.
[01:02] 4.33% of the ten0 year, 4.64% the 30 year, 5.12% gold is up2.
[01:02] And a half dollars the ounce little changed flat on the day at 4031, but crude continues to be an ongoing major story right now.
[01:02] WTI 84-49 a barrel up 6.6% barrel of Brent crude in 1947 now brrent surging.
[01:02] 7.6% will' have a whole lot more on the energy outlook for you coming up in just a moment when we speak to energy secretary ch.
[01:02] RightPside Trump, meanwhile, says the U.S will hit ir Iran hard after a recent attack targeted a military base in Jordan.
[01:02] As clashes have caused Brenent crude oil to surge, taking oil majors higher, shares of exxon Mobi they are.
[01:02] Advancing today along with Conico Phillips and Chevron right now, we are looking at exxon mobile shares and they are gaining.
[01:03] Today, by just about 3% on shares of Exxon mobile, some of the other stories that we're following for you, Doordash building its own.
[01:03] Delivery drones that has gained the necessary approvals to operate them commercially, it is the latest in its effort to delegate more.
[01:03] 🎼Orders to robots as a way of cutting delivery times and caterpillar shares are falling today. They are plunged.
[01:03] Down by roughly 6% after Baird cut its recommendation on the industrial giant and slashed its price target.
[01:03] 🎼Recaping here, we are looking at a down day for the doubt, the S&P and the Nasdaq composite index, the Nasdaq 100 index lower now by1.
[01:03] S&P 500 index down 7% that crew quote bears repeating 8452 on wTI up now by.
[01:03] Just about6.6% Reapping F decision coming up at 2 o'clock i'm char Pellette and that show mat.
[01:03] ett you very much indeed.
[01:04] this is a market that is braced not only for a great decision from the federal reserve but also is waiting and washing to see what happens in the middle East.
[01:04] The U.S. is promising to retaliate against Iran, potentially more strikes on the way after Iranian missiles targeted U..
[01:04] Forces in jordan that is why we are seeing, as charlie mentioned, higher oil prices today back above 90 a barrel on brrenent crude with a lot of.
[01:04] Volaatil obviously having happened in the energy space and a lot of those higher energy costs, having shown that they were feeding flu into inflation when they were on the.
[01:04] They have led to lower inflationary prints most recently because gasoline prices dropped so steadily, but it's very uncertain as to what the trajectory.
[01:04] Will be and that is why it's such a tough call for fomc members as they make their rate decision today knowing that this is.
[01:04] side problems that higher rates can't necessarily solve for and yet if they want to promise that they're going to beat back inflation in may1.
[01:05] credibilityreed if they go ahead and high well and they're going to be looking at the core as well, but surely questions are going to be centered around this very issue when reporters like.
[01:05] Michael McKee have a chance to go back and forth with the chair, we're going to bring all this to you live as we always do, beginning with a decision at 2 pm the news conference at 23.
[01:05] Our special coverage starts less than a half an hour from now live from New York Kaylee, these stories all collide somehow when we talk about energy price.
[01:05] And you introduce the idea of data center, which many believe is driving electric bills higher, and it started a conversation about a close.
[01:05] Cirrcuit around these facilities and here's a new take on this you probably heard about the next era story it was out first.
[01:05] This morning, Extera teaming up with Brookfield to build 100 billion data center campus in this case, though.
[01:05] It's going to be run by a nuclear facility in Kentucky, they're basically relighting a nuclear plant powered by uranium.
[01:05] Will home a data center so this is a generating plant that is coming with it. it all feeds into this rate praer protection notion weve heard.
[01:06] So much from the president about he was just at the EPA last week announcing an expansion of that ratepayer protection pledge pledged she essentially wanted these data center.
[01:06] To be bringing their own power to be insulating everyday consumers from the higher utility costs that with could come with them this is down.
[01:06] The gaseous diffusion plant and the secretary of Energy is there right now because the administration is very much supporting this effort we're glad to have.
[01:06] Chris Wright with us, Mr. Secretary, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and radio, it's good to see you and it looks like the weather's nice today in.
[01:06] This plant made uranium for the US during the Cold War privately funded, so I'm curious what is the extent of.
[01:06] Government involvement and exposure here other than simply transferring the site, is that why you're in Kentuckyent?
[01:06] Yeah I'm here, Joe you summarized it well, we're here just to celebrate the Department of energy is leasing these federals.
[01:07] Lands to multiple private companies to build some new nuclear technologies as you spoke about, also to build two.
[01:07] Gawatts of new natural gas power generation that'll serve both a 1.2 gigawatt data center that'll be built.
[01:07] Here that's the majority of that 100 billion dollars, but also to add 800 megawatts of additional power onto the.
[01:07] Rid here, which will benefit all of the surrounding states, this is sort of a cornerstone move of the trump ratepayer protection pledge.
[01:07] Driving prices down and industry and job creation up as'm you're well aware Mr. secretary.
[01:07] Live conversation happening in and around financial markets right now as to whether there is over investmenttment happening into artificial intelligence.
[01:07] And the infrastructure that powers it if we're building perhaps too many data centers, and I wonder Mr. secretary, if you can still hear me there.
[01:07] A concern here that if it is, in fact an over surplus of data centers, is the power that comes with them going to be pulled off?
[01:08] The grid as well as this power that stays you say over investment, i'm sure over investment in artificial intelligence and.
[01:08] The secretary is having a little bit of difficulty hearing us we'll try to reestablish that connection, joe, but this is obviously the conversation that you've been seeing happen.
[01:08] In real time, in a lot of these technology stocks in particular, the notion that perhaps all of this investment isn't necessarily going to pay off.
[01:08] is going to be front and center as we consider the hyperscalear results that we're going to get after the bell today the market is going to be watching their capex numbers, perhaps.
[01:08] Forecast capex much more closely than even the earnings themselves on some of these very concerns that all starts tonight.
[01:08] Microsoft is going to be the big one we're looking at with Me, we've got also Amazon and Apple coming up all in the next two days, interesting next era was holding up pretty well.
[01:08] It just turned slightly negative when I saw $100 billion in that headline this morning, I thought it would be an excuse to sell because that is the fear, right?
[01:09] We keep dumping money into this thing and all of a sudden it's like we were laying fiber in 1999 again The fact the matter is though, Kaylee, we wake up every day to it,
[01:09] It's just part of the new cycle right now and these hyperscales are committed the question is for how long i guess.
[01:09] It continued to tolerate that commitment or punish them for it further, those are certainly the questions that the market is contending with, not even.
[01:09] Including the political considerations around this which of course, come back to the notion of power and utility costs, hence the rate.
[01:09] te pledge we were just hearing the energy secretary discuss and chris wright is back with us now, m. secretary, i apologize for the technical difficulty.
[01:09] My question to you was around this notion that we're over investing in data centers that too much is being poured into the infrastructure and I wonder if.
[01:09] Does turn out that we have a surplus of these if you expect the power that is being generated by them as part of these large projects.
[01:09] that that won't ultimately leave the gra if we see some kind of data center collapse.
[01:10] No, it definitely won't leave the grid In fact, it's one of the great things data center development is doing is its funding and underwriting the development of.
[01:10] So much new power generation capacity look I think the upside for artificial intelligence is tremendous, but if there did.
[01:10] Turnout to be over investment and surplus of artificial intelligence we would love to have the extra power that'll allow reshoring.
[01:10] Manufacturing in the US and continue downward pressure on electricity prices of.
[01:10] is one I'm sure you're familiar with, and I wonder if what you're announcing today in Kentuckyenty is an answer to it.
[01:10] For of a closed circuit data center from what it sounds like, would that include water as well, will you have your own water supply for this campus?
[01:10] Absolutely, but as you know, a modern data center uses precious little water.
[01:11] Cose loop cooling systems, you build a giant data center and it uses as much water as a McDonald's.
[01:11] We do have water supply here, we are building new power generation, but you're right using federal lands that was already in adult.
[01:11] Ausstr site during the early part of the Cold War and repurposing it for a data center, tremendous community support to have that development.
[01:11] Going on here and we are doing this at multiple locations across the department of energy, taking old industrial sites, bringing.
[01:11] to communities that are hungry for these investments, for these tax dollars and for these job opportunities opportunity.
[01:11] Is there Mr. secretary to tap federal lands further, where should we be looking for the projects of the future?
[01:11] There there's a lot of them, you know, we have 17 national labs and then additional federal sites, so we announced a big one in.
[01:11] Portmouth, Ohio, we have this one in paducka, you'll hear about one in south Carolinaina, you're going to hear about one out in washington.
[01:12] anddaho so we have a lot of federal lands and there's a lot of interest to develop and again, not just data.
[01:12] In power production, but right here in paducah in Kentucky, we're going to have a new company called General matterer.
[01:12] Developing modern uranium enrichment, essentially a more modern way to do what the giant buildings down here were built to do to.
[01:12] To fuel the commercial reactors that are coming in the nuclear Renaissance so a lot of new technology and industrial development across.
[01:12] OurWell, we don't see those buildings behind you right now, Mr. secretary, if you're watching bloomberg tv right now or with us on YouTubetu see.
[01:12] Chris, right in front of a beautiful open field with some trees, what's the timeline, how long will it take for you to get this site up and running?
[01:12] And actually producing electrons to create whatever this data center will be cranking on.
[01:13] So the data center should be under construction in the next six months, there actually is construction already underway.
[01:13] can't see it because it's off to my right not in your camera, there's already 100 acres under intense development right now to build new uranium.
[01:13] Ricchment capabilities and then the power generation at data center will come on in phases over the next four years, but simply.
[01:13] A large commercial development already started here in padducah, Kentuckyent, and this is again with the Trumpmp administration.
[01:13] It about let's build additional energy generation to put downward pressure on prices and with that additional power we're going to generate.
[01:13] Let's bringmer jobs, American industrial might, and lead artificial intelligence right here in the United States of America.
[01:13] Well, of course utility prices are one thing, prices at the pump mist. secretary are another and we have seen those climbing back.
[01:13] Above $4 a gallon as we're seeing oil prices today once again spiking as the president's threatening to hit iran hard.
[01:14] Once again, how high realistically should we expect prices to go if there is no immediate?
[01:14] Reopening of the straight of forus in the near term if the diplomatic process is indeed not going to be successful and we see a return.
[01:14] actionWell, if there's military action, it's relatively brief.
[01:14] We are using the united states military today to escort out oil and natural gas out of the Strrat of hoorms.
[01:14] He's gone remarkably well, little reported in the news and probably that's because we don't talk about it too much, but we are restoring supply.
[01:14] Of global oil and refined products to the world out of that region independent on how much.
[01:14] umb for us in terms of how much is actually getting through the street day trail.
[01:15] Average right now out of the arabian gu region is 13 million barrels a day, about half of that flowing through the strait.
[01:15] And half of that through bypass pipelines, so we're about two thirds of the delivery of oil out of the Arabian Gulf region.
[01:15] As we were before the conflict started that's really great information Mr secretary and i wonder your thoughts on.
[01:15] is now the involvement of houthhi rebels from yemen creating a potential second choke point, as we've discussed in the.
[01:15] This is something that Saudidi a had already tried to pipeline around with regard to the Strt of for a bypass.
[01:15] So the bypass, as javier blos put that that you're talking to saudi arabia about where additional pipe could be installed to get around.
[01:15] second show point there is a bypass to the bypass called the Suez Canal.
[01:15] So you can go across to the Red Sea and instead of going south down to the bandel Mandeb, you can go through.
[01:16] The Suez canal that is happening as we speak, there's both oil tanker capacity through the Suez and there is a pipeline that.
[01:16] same route, both of which will be employed to divert more oil that way.
[01:16] Of, as we consider the supply of oil, we also have to factor in the reserves that the U.S. has and that the rest of the world has been.
[01:16] Tapping into over the last several months as this conflict has been ongoing, m. secretary, we know the SPR is at the lowest level in four decades.
[01:16] More than that and i wonder how much lower realistically it can be allowed to go where the operational floor is and what.
[01:16] The plan is if we reach it we are a long way from the operational floor i've heard some people.
[01:16] That don't understand, not you, but i've heard people who don't understand how the SPR works saying oh it can't go below X amount of barrels that's just not.
[01:17] TrueThey seem to misunderstand that it's just oil in these caverns and otherwise it's air all of these caverns are full of a combination of water.
[01:17] And they are always 100% full we just use the water to displace the oil out of these caverns.
[01:17] Planned sales we have, which will run into this fall, will still have meaningful supply over 200 million barrels of oil in our SPR.
[01:17] The end of those releases and what's great about the releases we're doing through the trump administration is we're not selling these barrels.
[01:17] Trading them at the end of the day, these releases will add more than 40 million barrels a day to the storage in the area.
[01:17] PR after the conflict than we had before the conflict started these are additive not subtractive4.
[01:17] 9ine cents a gallon on average nationally today, Mr secretary, is it even possible to forecast where we'll be by the end of summer?
[01:17] labor day it's not possible to forecast, but look all i can say is.
[01:18] Voline prices today are a dollar a gallon cheaper than they were four years ago in the bidden administration that was just.
[01:18] About a war on fossil fuels and selling fear here we are ending Iran's nuclear ambitions, ending a 46.
[01:18] to do with the war in Ukraine as still have gasoline prices that didn't interrupt the flow of oil it was just the fear.
[01:18] Of the interruption of the flow of oil, the biden administration feared that russia would slow their exports.
[01:18] O a refined diesel and therusians did not reduce their export just fear and bad management they drained theR.
[01:18] And they sold those barrels and didn't replace them, so misunderstanding energy and selling fear has not been effective.
[01:18] Trump administrations about being honest, about being fact based, about solving our geopolitical problems and balancing our energy markets.
[01:19] I'm confident we will see gasoline prices continue their long term trend downward later this year and of course we are working.
[01:19] Every day at a lower prices for the american consumers Well, you mentioned there m. secretary finally, the question of russian diesel which.
[01:19] Now is not being exported because so many refineries have been targeted by ukrainian drone strikes i understand that.
[01:19] MostGas that consumers are seeing at the pumpet may be one thing and you may expect prices to go lower, but is the same to be said.
[01:19] For diesel, which also powers a lot of our economy' right.
[01:19] On Russian refineries have reduced the supply of diesel globally it's reflected in prices the best offset we have.
[01:19] Americanfining complex we are refining today more diesel, more gasoline, more jet fuel than ever in american history.
[01:19] America has been the savior for world energy markets during this crisis and will continue to do so, but yes.
[01:20] Of course we want to see diesel prices come down, increasing the throughput from themerican refineries, something the EPA and the Trumpmp administration.
[01:20] Is working with our refiners to just again, move towards more common sense regulations and how refineries operate that's allowing.
[01:20] Increased output, but to truly get diesel prices down low again, that'll take another year or so of.
[01:20] In't in Trump's leadership, but the trajectory will be downward downward with diesel prices, downward with gasoline prices.
[01:20] All right, we'll leave it there m. secretary, thank you so much for joining us the energy secretary chris wright joining us live from kenty at the site of again one.
[01:20] 100 billion dollar data center project being spearheaded by next era and brookfield and as we reflect on our conversation with the secretary, we turn now.
[01:20] To our political panelist, Jeannie shanzano, a bloomberg politics contributor, democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at harvard kennedy schools's ash center joins us alongside.
[01:21] ro today Republicanublican strategist and political director at the american principless project kie, i'd like to come to you on where we be.
[01:21] Conversation with the secretary around the issue of data centers on the costs associated with them and pushback that we are seeing from the ameran election.
[01:21] When we were with you in georgia for the primary, we heard a lot about data centers and how unhappy voters are with them when they come.
[01:21] to their communities is what the energy department is supporting here that they're doing and making sure it generates its own power.
[01:21] Using federal lands to do it the answer, they could be an absolutely fantastic solution, potentially we need to see how these projects play out.
[01:21] You know Joee correctly said iss the ultimate niImB issue, not in my backyard, we all need data centers, we need that.
[01:21] Energy, we all, whether we say, oh, I don't use AI well, just because you aren't using chat you PT to create an image, you're using AI.
[01:21] it's being integrated into everything we do, so we need to have data centers, but they need to make sure it doesn't have a disproportionate impact on the community around it.
[01:22] From Georgia, and as you're talking about we were here, my home county of Cal County recently rezoned.
[01:22] 829 acres of rural farmland to accommodate a new data center project that's coming in, and a domain has been used.
[01:22] take the land around it to run the power lines, and that has created a massive pushback within the community, but if this is being put on federal land,
[01:22] And all of the power was being self contained, I would think we'd have a dramatically different reaction, so I'm glad to see this innovation coming on.
[01:22] Per energy and think it really could be a fantastic solution going forward what's your take on this, Jeannie, if this is an issue that.
[01:22] ss plan to on. We've already got a data center moratorium in your state of New York. What's your reaction to.
[01:22] This approach, a campus that's self contained off the grid closed circuit, is that what developed.
[01:23] Can walk into a town hall meeting and. I think it's going to depend on how this is.
[01:23] Roed out you have real questions, Joe, about are they bypassing the public in doing this?
[01:23] Are they taking into concern the public's reaction to this and how it impacts that?
[01:23] Because while these are federal lands, they are surrounded by communities of Americans who remain concerned about.
[01:23] These projects, there's also the issue of transparency you've got people saying that developers have signed disclosure non disclosure.
[01:23] Agreements, rather with local officials keeping residents in the dark, you've also got resource constraints and you know you mentioned.
[01:23] But let's just look at Floridada, you have somebody like ron deantis sayingmeric citizens are in his case floridians should.
[01:23] be paying one more dime to subsidize tech billionaires and so all of those things remain.
[01:24] On federal land or whether you are on, you know, you use public land or private land, so these concerns remain.
[01:24] And it's going to depend an awful lot on how they're rolled out and how the community is educated on the impact, but I have to agree with disantis.
[01:24] Americans should not be paying to fund tech billionaires, these things are draining resources and costing America.
[01:24] And that's why I agree with Hochcal on the moratorium, so you figure out the best way to roll this out, that's to the benefit of everybody.
[01:24] And not to the benefit of the very, very wealthy tech billionaires and finally, Jeannie, well, we did talk to him about.
[01:24] That and utility costs there is the question of gas prices as well and he said he can't forecast what they will become labor day or perhaps where they will be coming.
[01:24] November is that not the biggest problem for Republicansublican right now, is that they aren't able to say definitively.
[01:25] Americans are going to see lower prices at the pump by the time they go to vote Yeah, I mean, it's an enormous problem for them the prices are.
[01:25] Really, really impacting them at the polls, the war is wildly unpopular and of course a lot of that is tied to the price.
[01:25] of gas and oil and as we listen to the administration, not only camps, they predict what the prices will be.
[01:25] Can't predict how we see this war come to an end. And that remains an enormous albatross hanging over their head as they march into.
[01:25] termAll right, Jeannie, thank you so much, as always, Jeannie Shanzno helping us walk up to our F.
[01:25] Reserve special coverage, De visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. thanks as well to Katie Frost a Republican strategist from the American principal.
[01:25] Project i'm joe matthew alongside kylee lines in washington, the countdown now set five minutes away from special coverage a half hour away from breaking news.
[01:25] From the Federal Resve and we're joined in our Washington Bureau by Anna Wong Bloomberg economiccons chief USS. economist, it's good to see you, Anna.
[01:26] About a 30% chance we're told of a hike. Do you roll your eyes at this or is this a real possibility, I think it's a possibility for sure.
[01:26] We have seen that Kevin Walsh has reduced forward guidance, and that's the reason why so there's such a big fat chunk of distribution.
[01:26] That he might move our baseline view is he won't move because we did have very soft inflation data, payrolls.
[01:26] Pointed his task force will only be reporting results at the end of this year, and i think so and there will be a major.
[01:26] Dward revisions to inflation in septem, I think he would be pushing to buy two more months of time for.
[01:26] For rate hikeSo if a hold it is to be, how hawkish can a hold be, Well, I think the fact that there is a.
[01:26] Live press conference is a signal of how hawkish it is, so suppose that there's no rate hike as we expect.
[01:27] based on what Kevin Wart has said, there shouldn't be a July press conference at all because he used to say that.
[01:27] If there's nothing important to say, then you shouldn't have it. So the fact that he is hosting one suggests that he will convey.
[01:27] The degree of family feud, the meeting today has said there will be a good fight if he convey in that meeting.😊
[01:27] That in fact, a sizable majority wants to hike, then it basically is a signal that September would be life.
[01:27] And if inflation and perils data did not turn out favorable for a hold, then there would be a hike in September.
[01:27] We factor in politics into that dynamic, though, you're creeping up on a midterm election and a president who doesn't want to see rate hikes at any time of year.
[01:27] The chair must be aware of this and that's what's got this narrative started in some corners that this might be his last chance.
[01:27] d argument for hiking today is that he wouldn't be hiking closer to the election.
[01:28] Eomics don't work that way. so based on our examination of the time it takes for a hike to transmit to the economy.
[01:28] Three or four months, so if you start hiking today, it actually hits right before the election.
[01:28] This means that the only if election is the consideration, the only time to hike is after the election Well, that doesn't leave very much time.
[01:28] There's officials who want to see a hike in the calendar here 2026, can I also ask you if the president primarily wants to see mortgage rates go down?
[01:28] If the fed were to hike today, could it not actually have the effect of suppressing the long end because it shows that they're serious about the inflation fight.
[01:28] And actually potentially lowering the rates, at least that the president cares about, Yeah, I think there are many things to think about and how to push along.
[01:28] And down part of it is credibility. But when you look at inflation expectations, including the ten year inflation compensation, it's actually.
[01:29] been going down since Kevin Wart has become the Fed chair. So really, what's driving the long end up is.
[01:29] Just of including tariffs, because the fact that tariff revenues are down and the refunds, 80 billion of tariff fund has happened.
[01:29] This year is actually causing people to be more worried about the fiscal situation that is independent of inflation credibility.
[01:29] Because I think right now Kevine Walsh already has a lot of that so since we are having a newsest conference today, what would you ask the chair if you had the chance?
[01:29] I would ask the chair that what does he think about the speed of transmission of policy lag whether the F state?
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