彭博直播转述Moonshot融资IPO传闻与三星AI存储强财报，但未形成新的可交易催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-30 19:00–19:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 197 段
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[19:00] With Jonathannathanrell Lisa Bramitz and Marie ho yo this morning morning.
[19:00] For our audience the second hour of Bberg surveillance starts right now in your scores the price action looks like this future positive by.
[19:00] 🎼S&P bouncing back on the Nasdaq following a six day slide at one4 percentage point in the bond market twos, tens and 30s questioning.
[19:00] 🎼Credibility of this Federal reserveve yields down to the front end by another basis point up at the long end by another3523.
[19:00] Yeah, this is a move that's getting a lot of people people's attention, highest of 30 year yield going back to 2007, highest real yields going back.
[19:00] 2008 and how much is this really pushing back against the fed saying the fed's watching the market, the market saying well, you've got an inflation problem.
[19:00] You need to get rid policy under control look i'm breathing, i'm touching grass i'm taking a walk because ultimately.
[19:01] This story has yet to be written and we'll have to wait to see what the says through it maybe in seven stages of grief.
[19:01] 🎼've got some symmetry for you yesterday at the Federal.😊
[19:01] 🎼sThis morning at the Bank of England a hold and I see three descents. Let's get to that with more Lizzie Bden is outside.
[19:01] 🎼she could break it down, hey, does he Well, John, like the Federal last night is ahawk.
[19:01] Hold from the Bank of England a6 three split that's more hawkish cinemas expected, Catherine Mann joining Chief economist Hugh Hill.😡
[19:01] An external member Megan Green in dissenting for a quarter point hike that this hike was needed for credibility but she could.
[19:01] the rest of the committee for now, the data gives them cover. schools the police charges going past. The data gives them cover to.
[19:01] St stunned part we did of course have inflation coming in below the view with these expectations in June at 2.6%.
[19:02] And the reason that they want to wait for clarity is not just the geopolitical uncertainty, but also the fiscal uncertainty around Andyburg.
[19:02] Do we think that maybe he'll go for some more borrowing when it comes the autumn budget down the track, but of course the exposure?😡
[19:02] Just to international energy markets, the big factor here, just interesting in terms of the guidance it's unchanged, but they say there isn't evidence.😡
[19:02] Of second round effects yet, but they're split on in terms of what the likelihood of second round effects.
[19:02] ul be down the track and they're saying as well that they have various scenarios of what inflation could look like.😡
[19:02] The future in the mild scenario, it peaks at 3% in Q4, 2026 in the adverse scenario.😡
[19:02] It peaks at 4.5% in the second quarter of 2027, so arrange again as we have seen in previous time.
[19:03] Rather than a central forecast with variants around it. So it's interesting, given that as well, we've had so many.
[19:03] Swings in the oil price, these projections are perhaps a bit moldy on arrival, John, but just looking at the market reaction, the pound is up to tens.
[19:03] % which is pretty much where we found it before the decision, so now we're looking ahead to the press conference with Andrew Bailey later on today.
[19:03] European viewers, by the way, can be watching it on Bloomberg TV with the opening trade Team analysis and I'll be there.
[19:03] We'll have it on the terminal.com and YouTube other as well from the of London.
[19:03] With the latest unchanged three dissents, very similar to what we saw yesterday at the Federal Reserve, I would say the difference is probably going to be Governor Bay.😊
[19:03] Chair Walsh then the outcome of that news conference might be slightly different It also is different because the expectations were lower they weren't expecting people weren't expecting.
[19:03] That degree of dissent, although in the U they weren't expecting three decents either, I will say that's where you see it in the pound, the fact that the pound held steady.
[19:04] S think a little bit after the decision was released, and that gives you a sense of how the international markets are viewing this.
[19:04] Let's get to the view on Wall Street this morning, or talk no action, Fed chair Kevin Walsh's indecisiveness leaving the bond market questioning the Fed's credibility.
[19:04] Mas Ketner of hSbC writing the Fed narrative has moved from a bias to east to a willingness to hike the decision not to hike has therefore prompted.
[19:04] Modest recalibration of rate expectations Max joins us now for more Max, welcome and good morning, how modest are those moves in that yield?😊
[19:04] Yeah, I think yesterday, I mean, I'll try maybe perhaps to do a little bit of a better job in answering questions.
[19:04] Next 10 minutes than we've had yesterday, although I don't think the pie is particularly high. Look I think when you look at the yield curve move.
[19:04] Yesterday, that's been basically the bond market voting with their feet. But I think one of the things that we also need to bear in mind that, particularly in the last couple of.
[19:05] Days positioning, particularly from fast money really was moving towards, okay, they might be actually doing a hike and if not a hike.
[19:05] Then he'll really to hammer down that message around credibility that he's managed to manage.
[19:05] Fest really during his first press conference in the June meeting, And now we've got the complete opposite. If you look at the yield curve move,.
[19:05] at twos5, 10s3s. You look at the reaction after the June meeting, and you look at that after yesterday, It's the exact opposite.
[19:05] So yeah, I was a bit puzzled yesterday why, what's the incentive of doing that, what's the incentive of dodging it?
[19:05] sort of question around the Fed'shawkish is, to me that is slightly up for grabs to that question Max yesterday everything got sold.
[19:05] the long end of the bond market, the dollar got sold, the credibility got sold Max what's more instructive for risk Is it the move the front end.
[19:05] At a curve or the longer end of the curve. No, I think it's more the longer end. So if the longer end really starts to be properly.
[19:06] Hinged both1s and30s, I think that will be an issue for equities and for credit, for Em assets really for.
[19:06] Everything from Fx to credit to equities, because the issue is, I've talked about this here in this program for months already.
[19:06] Is that we've been ignoring what we call that danger zone, right, that danger zone, the level of yield on the long end that normally treat.
[19:06] s really a risk of reaction across all the asset classes, whether it's risk on or risk off assets,, So it also includes things like.
[19:06] Gold for example, that's what we've seen yesterday. we have been able to ignore that so far because the earnings picture has been so strong.😊
[19:06] Yet again is the case now with the Q2 reporting season. once again we have these broad based earningsing surprises, but of course, if the bond market.
[19:06] The long end starts being unhinged and the volatility there is too high, that drags probably volatility in rates across.
[19:07] curve higher and that puts it in on valuations not only on PEs, but really across the asset class spectrum.
[19:07] ax,You are on the edge of getting a little more bearish, not getting bearish, but just not getting as bullish. Then you reverse that after we got.
[19:07] A number of these earnings they came out so well. and the responses, at least from Microsoft, have been positive. Does anything change with your call based on the.
[19:07] actionction that we've seen in the long end of the yield curve. No, So I would give two answers to that. Number one from an acid answer from.
[19:07] As allocation perspective, no, not at all if you look at things like equities over treasuries, you, so you look at the relative performance between those two.😊
[19:07] You would not think that in the last two months, there's been such mayhem in parts of the equity market.😡
[19:07] It overall is doing fine, right If you guys were to look at chart like the equal weighted S&P or look at equal weight at global indices at things.😊
[19:07] Like the topics. Look at things like European stock markets markets, right, The stock 600. There's nothing to see. We're pretty much at or.
[19:08] Very close to the all time heights. It's literally just tech and just semis where we've seen that weakness. And that brings me to the second answer.
[19:08] Now going forward, the question is, is that tech weakness, that semi weakness, is that going to drag us down, is that going to drag beta down across?😡
[19:08] Rk acid spectrum or are we done and are we going to rotate back into tech, Are we done with that broadening train that we've been on for the best part.
[19:08] really of the last four weeks, is that done in the next couple of weeks or is that going to now manifest into itself into broader risk off in August?
[19:08] The question Max, the broadening out that people were talking about earlier this year included not just the United states and the non tech names but the rest of the.
[19:08] And I just wonder how much you're doubling down on the rest of the world aspect, especially given the greater degree of volatility around you.
[19:08] Yeah, absolutely, so we are still overweight and quite a lot overweight in Japan.
[19:09] particularly in Europe, so when we were closing at the start of July, our overweight in emerging market equity is simply because we were obviously not foreseeing how big.
[19:09] That drawdown would be in Asian memory names, but we were uncomfortable with our pretty high volatility with those wild swings already at the end of ju.
[19:09] And the first week of July, hence why we've taken off emerging market equities in particular and put that into Europe and into Japan things.
[19:09] Like Europe, in fact, European equities they're pretty much the same line as the equal weight S&P, so I don't think Lisa right.
[19:09] it's rotating out of the US. It's more about, are we going to buy the equal weight, are we going to buy the rest of the SP or are we going to.
[19:09] Take back into tech and semis for me, we're not quite there yet, we're not quite at the level where I want to say the broadening is done, I don't want to buy it.😡
[19:09] The other half of the S&P, the nontech and AI S&P, that stuff that we bought in the last four weeks, I want to go back into tech and semis.😊
[19:09] The technicals are not just quite there yet, but I think that is just a matter really of weeks, it's not something we're like well at some point in the next couple.
[19:10] Given how strong that drawdown has been, particularly also in the global momentum names, I think that is a matter of weeks, if not days, until we can.
[19:10] switch there and the one thing that I would say is it's definitely not in our view, something where global risk and global risk assets equities.
[19:10] ebex is going to drag down by that momentum sell off. We've seen such a big sell off already.
[19:10] Going forward, you're going to have to create a big, big catastrophe scenario. You're going to have to see an even bigger drawdown now going forward.
[19:10] That to spill over into a broader risk of. So Max bullish kinder, is that a decent summary of where you're at right now.
[19:10] I think I would say Max Bullish, but it depends what you buy right it's not just like well I'm just going to buy tech and they'll sleep no we were buying the wings of the.😡
[19:10] Right up until a month ago, we were buying Asia and we were buying the US and particularly the tech names for us now it's still really max bullish, but it's the broad.😡
[19:11] Based one, it's the second earn season in a row, where not only U and the US, but also globally people have once again, but going on about how.😊
[19:11] High the bar to beat us for earnings, and they've been once again underestimating how strong and how broad based the earnings impulse in the.
[19:11] ning recoveryMa's good to see you bud, as always Ma County there of HSBC on this Federal Reserve on this earningsing story and Lisa you said it.😊
[19:11] AtThe start of the week I was saying repeatedly the week begins on Wednesday, we have these massive events coming up and you were talking about the earnings out square and you were absolutely right, the earnings out square.
[19:11] Have been pretty tremendous. Yeah, I'm long a triple fp, half decaf, half calf, 2% with a cocaa.
[19:11] na with a Coke. I don that's essentially. Well, no, it's just the idea of Starbucks, the fact that they just need to figure out how to get enough.
[19:11] Foo to cater to people who want to pay a lot of money for all this food, I mean, it just gives you a sense of how strong the economy is how much caffine did you age yesterday.
[19:11] Something stiff fors you need a lot of caffine, I need to just get used to a style, I don't know what he was trying to accomplish.
[19:12] If I could ask one question this morning and get a candid answer, I would say, are you happy with the reaction in markets because if you and I guess we'll get the answer to you.
[19:12] Is this by design or is this a communication error that you just not having whatever TK have it in the news conference?
[19:12] Right just get through it's so much easier let's give an update on news worldwide this morning with your Bomberg brief let's get to Vonnie Quin heyonny.😊
[19:12] Thank you Bank of England mirroring the Fed announcing its holding rates steady with three disenters calling for a hike. the committee saying they stand ready to act.
[19:12] 🎼To high inflation from lingering Moonshot AI is occurring a $35 billion valuation sources selling us here at boomberg.
[19:12] That's far more than the Beijing based startup was aiming for, the company now seeking funding at valuation of $50 billion.
[19:12] It's aiming for an IPO in Hong Kong as early as this year and a blowout quarter for Samsung, South Korea's largest.
[19:13] Company posting a 250 fold surge in chip profits driven by the demand for high bandwidth memory and storage.
[19:13] 🎼Echoing comments from SK Heix saying it doesn't expect a let up in the speed of AI development and data center construction your.😊
[19:13] 🎼thank you thank you very much up'm next on our program Iran back under fire We're going to be them hard.
[19:13] Because it's our term to hit them. they know it's coming, the riskkin is not to do it. so it's our turn and we'll see if we get there with.
[19:13] 🎼Well thank you of thank you research up next live from New York City this morning, good morning.
[19:14] The countdown is on.
[19:15] 🎼you need to get the the end of the market day get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close weekdays on bloomlo contact.
[19:15] 🎼I'm David Weston. join me each week on Wall Street week for stories of capital.
[19:15] This week, Harvard's Jason Furman on the Fed decision, the European Union moves to reform its merger regulation, but will it get the tech industry.
[19:15] GoJohnson and Johnsonson gets into the robotic surgery business a bit late, but with what it thinks is a better mousetrap and what are all those.
[19:15] tank we don't go up to capitol hill. we don't tell the government what it should do Watch Wall Street week more than what you need to know.
[19:15] 🎼What you need to think about training day is about to start and you're already looking for that trade brings you everything you need to know.
[19:15] 🎼As markets open across Europe I'm Gu Johnson, I'm Anna Edwards and I'm Tom Mc. this is your opening trade only.
[19:15] 🎼After the close coming up a little bit late.
[19:16] We'll get earnings from the likes of Apple and Amazon looking forward to that equity future on the S&P 500 positive by.5 on the S&P on.
[19:16] 🎼Asdaq up by 1.2 on the Russell up by 0.4 in the bond market and pushback against this F share, 3 year yields.
[19:16] 🎼Higher by two basis points, 522 you know I keep saying that and I keep wondering afterwards is it pushback, is this ultimately?
[19:16] Once to your point from is it by design you know I would argue not really because you don't want to see the dollar fall yields go up that is a toxic brew for any central.
[19:16] Especly given the fact that it isn't necessarily coming from inflation expectations going up so this raises a question fundamentally about credibility.
[19:16] And whether this market is going to inject o of pain into this fed's discussion the fed's credibility got rericed in the last 24.
[19:16] 🎼As it got sold in the commodity market, Brent and WTI shaping up as follows Brent, holding on to the 90s and $9030.
[19:17] 🎼Savans this morning around back under fire we're going to be them very hard because it's our to hit them.
[19:17] The risk is not to do it, but they tried shooting so we had five rocket shot going 8,500 miles an hour.
[19:17] And all five rockets were knocked down to the ground, but they nevertheless took a shot, so it's our turn and we'll see.
[19:17] So here's the latest this morning, the US retaliating against Iran, failinging to stop the conflict from spreading as Tehran strikes.
[19:17] American and Arab targets across the middle east this kendall has the latesty'.
[19:17] To the U.S.'s retaliation is hitting across the region and disruptions to commercial shipping are extending beyond the strait of heru.
[19:17] 2 lng tankers were hit off the coast of egypt and while no one has claimed responsibility for that attack, there has been this heightened.
[19:17] On ept's Mediterranean coast as saudi arabia has been rerouting ships there in a bid to avoid the threat posed by the houthis.
[19:18] In the red sea at this point, there's been very little public indication that iran is willing to let up its leverage when it comes to a commercial.
[19:18] Shipping and we saw this new data show though that there is this slight uptick when it comes to traffic in the strait of herms.
[19:18] Kepler saying that 14 ships transited through in both directions yesterday up from single digits last week, but importantly almost.
[19:18] All of these vessels are using that ir approved corridor now importantly we did have the us.. energy secretary christopher right.
[19:18] balancealance of power last night who told us that on average we are seeing 13 million barrels per day leave the Persian gulf over this past week.
[19:18] He says that's about two thirds of the pre war flows but importantly, john, the energy secretary went on to say that half of those supplies are.
[19:18] Moving through the Strrait of herse and the other half are going through bypass pipeline with the latest down in washington to to thank you so the broadening conflict.
[19:19] Across the Middle East pushing crude and refined product prices higher the Sha CEO delivering a new warning on cost and supply.
[19:19] Towards producing more jet fuel to meet that season of demand, it does mean that you are reducing gasoline and diesel production.
[19:19] What we are finding at the moment is both gasoline and diesel are at dec lows in terms of inventories, which starts to put pressure on those price lines.
[19:19] Paul, thank you. thank you Research writing, We have been super bullish on refining and think there is a major crisis here. We argue people are looking at the wrong oil price.
[19:19] Crude is not the issue, gasoline, dister and jet Paul joins us now for more Paul Good morning thin.
[19:19] The, how bad are things Well, it's just that the refine here, for example, refiners are running at 96% utilization they unusual it that to run.
[19:19] That's where we want them and it's not unusual. I mean, for example in Mexico, that would be 50%, you know, but it's an amazing performance and it does really.
[19:19] The risk around refining because obviously when they're running that hard hurricane season coming up, El Nino, we went through a couple of heat waves and that causes.
[19:20] So I'm worried that there may be more problems, but the big idea is that basically wholesale gasoline is $140 a barrel.
[19:20] Brent is at 90 and that margin is absolutely massive in terms of profitability, as I say, it's a margin, not a price, the $70.
[19:20] Refining margin. And that's telling you that the tightness is in the refining system. So there's plenty, more or less plenty of crude. A lot of it driven.
[19:20] By China's behavior and by the SPR, which is another big turning point, by the way, because when we run out of SPR, which should happen around September.
[19:20] Masively change the dynamics of the WTI market here in the U. and wouldn it be very bullish when it comes to the products, which is most vulnerable right now.
[19:20] Well jet fuel sort of sits above desolate as the hardest to make and the industry has done an amazing job of raising their yield and really addressing the jet fuel crisis.
[19:20] AndThe reason they do that it's the highest margin product, so jet fuel has actually not been the problem that we anticipated basically because we didn't realize the refining industry.
[19:21] could generate so much more jet fuel than they've been able to be. The tightness at the moment, which is interesting, is to the area that's normally not that tight, which is.
[19:21] and that's where we're watching the inventories go way below the bottom of the range, and that's basically because they're pushing so much into jet and diesel.
[19:21] That you're actually sucking down the biggest inventoryry, which is gasoline. And then, of course, I said, you're drawing down the SPR very rapidly as well.
[19:21] Our energy secretary chris wright says it's a quote long way from operational minimum, you think there's an issue coming in Septemberptember.
[19:21] Depending on the rate the weekly it's being pulled down, but the refiners now find it a great deal because they're basically taking physical barrels, they're not paying for them.
[19:21] physicalhysical barrels in the future and as you know pay back more barrels, but in the future, which is a much something of a lower price.
[19:21] The refiners want the crude, there's a big debate that hasn't really been addressed by the DOE of where the bottomom of the SPR lies.
[19:21] They put out a note about Cushing, which is a different thing. Cushshing is metal tanks above ground. The SpR is a salt cavern that you hollow out by dissolving the salt.
[19:22] Every time you take it down then push it back up, you push water underneath and you dissolve more of the cavern. So there's actually a technical question.
[19:22] Cavin getting bigger, how low can it go is all basically not being addressed, other than know, Chris writes, frankly, it has a lot of a very high repetition in.
[19:22] But as an energy secretary, he's said some things that haven't turned out to be entirely true, particularly regarding the streets poor Mouse. So I'm not sure that you know,
[19:22] He says about the SPR is really definitive, frankly, we just don't know when we're going to have to stop downloading it basically.
[19:22] A bag of popcorn where half of its air and you open it up and you don't realize until you finally get in there okay it' going to get really convoluted here.
[19:22] serious wondering how.
[19:22] you put to the barrels that are still going through the strait of fors and potentially through pipelines actually making it through, which has been a huge offset.
[19:23] To some of the drawdowns that people were expecting, Yeah, I mean, my latest researchers haven't published it actually, but it's on the UAE because the UA is actually exporting more oil now.
[19:23] And it was before the crisis started and that's been one of the most stunning dramas here, and I'd add that you the front lines in this conflict are shifting if you just look overnight,
[19:23] What you've seen here is US and Saudi for basically fighting Iraq versus Saudi.
[19:23] UAE seems to be at peace now. They've made some kind of peace for the Iranians. There's no issues in Abu Dhabi at the moment. and of course, Israel Lebanon is.
[19:23] And then the other big front, which is going crazy is Russia, Ukraine, and that one is absolutely out of control. So the conflicts has shifted quite dramatically.
[19:23] As any war would. And I think the biggest one is that actually oil is coming out through the hormone. So for example, UAE has been.
[19:23] shippinging quite successfully. So what they're doing is using small and more discrete tankers, zip around the straight and then load bigger.😊
[19:23] ers you know to export actually more oil than they were before the crisis Do you think that we need to be paying more attention to what's happened?
[19:24] With rus and Ukraineraine and that that's going to take more barrels off than a lot of people are expecting Well, there's no question that this one of the stunning aspects of this whole.
[19:24] World War III, because I always say if you worried about World War III, you're in it, has been the emergence of Ukraine as a superpower, as a drone superpower.
[19:24] You wouldn't have thought now that Ukraine is very popular in the Middle East, they're doing arms steels down in the Middle East, but what I will say is they're trashing Russia.
[19:24] I don't know how much longer Russia can handle this it's getting intoable for the Russian people I'm sure.
[19:24] ,Did you go to the movies recently, Did you get done over on a bag of Hcorn, Because that what happen. She went to the art.😊
[19:24] Oh, it was pop popcorn, no, it's just that like a bag of popcorn or like a box of cereal when you open it up and it's like, I would be maybe's now.
[19:24] T that bag of popcor at me, It's been a long week tomato or sleep is an important thing Kevin, avoid the movies All right, don't bump into brown.
[19:25] Not now Paul thank you sir, it's good to see you thank you very much future right now in the S&P positive by 0.6 on the S&P 500 and just a moment we'll catch you.😊
[19:25] With Nick Jones of BmpP, he's cuttingning his price targeter on Me, many others us have as well on the back of some disappointing results that stock is getting absolutely.
[19:25] The hammered, the stock is down by about 9% so far the pre market, the hits keep coming for the F share, so dovish it's hawkish.😊
[19:25] 🎼I just came from Bank of America that ultimately it's going to make them need to hike rates to get back some credibility and maybe as soon as September.😊
[19:25] I did get pushback saying that actually it's not that the Fed is losing credibility, it's that the making is waking up to the reality.
[19:25] That inflation is going to be higher for longer and rates should be too the end of the curve through 520 up next.
[19:25] 🎼We'll get you some morning moves as well, Ar and Qualcomm sliding on a smartphone slowdown.
[19:28] 🎼In case you missed it on Daybreak Europe, we talk going with the EU regulator on this though.
[19:28] Look, as I told you, I interact a lot with Americans and Chinese players and we see a Trump fighting for their companies all the time. we see the Chinese fight.
[19:28] For their companies all the time here in Europe, I feel I'm fighting against the European regulators, Not that they are fighting for us. They are fighting against us. It.
[19:28] 🎼because we need to have really big global tech leaders in Europe Europe live every weekday.
[19:28] 🎼When news breaks a red head across the Bloomberg terminal Bloomberg has you covered Trump's global tariffs are struck down by the US Supreme Court for all the contact.
[19:28] 🎼And clarity you need there's going to be now tos of tariff headlines until midter election here at first on Bloberg the.
[19:28] 🎼Important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Michael McKee on the Mexican border. And this is Bloomberg.
[19:29] I'm David Weston, join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism this week, Harvard's Jason Furman on the Fed.
[19:29] The European Union moves to reform its merger regulation, but will it get the tech industry going Johnson Johnson gets into the robot.
[19:29] Surgy business a bit late but with what it thinks is a better mousetrap and what are all those think tanks doing we don't go up to capitol hill.
[19:29] don't the government what it should do Watch Wall Street Week more than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about.
[19:29] The cash open two hours away, equity futures bouncing back were're up by 0.6.