Bloomberg直播讨论AI数据中心债务融资成本上升与信用市场消化压力

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-31 00:30–01:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 207 段
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[00:30] Blackrock led the way with a $12.5 billion sale tied to financing a texas data center linked to meta.
[00:30] To this blackro a little bit more, the bond offered a hefty yield of 7.53% that's one of the highest levels for a blue chip data center debt offer.
[00:30] You see that here at the bottom of the chart demand for the deal peaked at just about $20 billion that ranks as the lowest for an AI.
[00:30] I grade jumbo bond sale in the US this year and a new reverse Yankee bond sale shook up a quiet week in Europe.
[00:30] the $5.3 billion in debt, this adds to the stampede of U.. companies like amazon and alphabet seeking debt buyers in europe.
[00:30] All part of an effort to div their funding sources and lock in lower yields compared to their home market and sticking with credit surging issuance from.
[00:30] percals has some investors questioning where they can get the best return on investment.
[00:31] The bigger issue for credit investors is that there's a lot of focus on the hyperscalear debt issuances, but there's a broad array of supply.
[00:31] From the broader tech ecosystemAnd so when investors are thinking about not just issuer concentration constraints, but how much exposure do they want in the credit.
[00:31] Market to the broader aI theme if they already have equities, that's what's causing i think the more careful consideration the question for investors is in our view where.
[00:31] Specifically should you be taking this exposure and at what price All right, let's dig into all of this with our credit roundtable, Winnie sees are a global head of credit strategy.
[00:31] Credit sites and brian whan chief investment officer and generalist portfolio manager for fixed income at tCw i mentioned that black.
[00:31] 12.5 million bond at 7.53% yield demand relatively tepid about 1.6 times the deal size.
[00:31] Brian, is this the start of an era of weak demand and much higher costs for corporate debt?
[00:31] So you know, short answer is yes, but I think let's focus on you know what's been causing this kind of softness in the corporate.
[00:32] On market which is this tech supply, a lot of it being these structure, these large structured deals,10 to $30 billion or more other being just.
[00:32] Corporate bonds, but again coming from a lot of these hyperscales. I think the point I would want to make here is that historically.
[00:32] When an issuer or a sector would come with a lot of debt, there would be kind of a natural circuit breaker, almost a feedback loop from the bond market.
[00:32] Two of those issuers saying, all right, we've had enough, and because of that, we're going to raise your cost of borrowing and that's going to effectively disincentivize you from borrow.
[00:32] And then you kind of get a more of a natural supply demand dynamic as things come into into balance this time around, you're talking about companies who.
[00:32] YouAre so such believers in this AI trade and the data center need and the compute need like they're thinking about you know.
[00:32] Triling or quadrupling their equity value based upon this spend. And so whether they borrow it 6 and a half or 7 or 8%.
[00:33] In the corporate bond market, honestly that the math doesn't matter because of it's not the cost of the capital that it's only just getting the capital.
[00:33] And so yeah, you know what, we'll pay an extra 100 basis points, we need that $50 billion because we're going to spend it on this data center and that's going to contribute to an.
[00:33] Enormous growth and value for our shareholders. And so there's this new insensitive borrower to price in the market.
[00:33] Pce and in the beginning, the market was able to absorb it because we're in higher yields and there's a lot of insurance, money, et cetera, buying it, but at this point it starts to feel.
[00:33] a point of saturation, but it also doesn't feel like this spend and this bar is going to slow down anytime soon So we have this interesting scenario here.
[00:33] Sensitive buyer borrower that is and plenty of demand coming plenty of supply coming out Winnie is there anything that you see?
[00:33] That would disincentivize the tech companies from borrowing Yeah, I think that some of the points made there are just so.
[00:33] Top notch, especially because these companies have been very highly rated, very cash flow generative and also.
[00:34] Really under leveraged in their balance sheet so there is a lot of room there Now there are some exceptions to that with a handful of these issuers.
[00:34] A little bit lower rating, having a little bit of a track record of investors pushing back on some of the leveraging type activity.
[00:34] That they've done in the past. and so I think that in order for there to be an incentive to perhaps balance capital.
[00:34] Structures a little bit more in the equity market, we might need to see the bond market get a little bit more punitive in terms of cost of borrowing.
[00:34] It's also hard to say July is not typically the most liquid month across financial markets in general, and we've had some overhang from the macro.
[00:34] It is a little bit difficult to discern how much of the recent repricing is entirely due to the hypersscalear AI trend and how much.
[00:34] It is due to some of the other seasonal technical macro factors You know, we just showed a chart on the credit default swap starting to widen out.
[00:35] Showing the cost of ensuringuring against corporate default is rising, and of course this is a popular way for investors to hedge their exposure to this AI.
[00:35] Brian, what are the ripple effects of increases in these credit default swaps, Does it lead to higher borrowing costs for the companies, and then you kind of get this.
[00:35] m, you know, self fulfilling prophecy Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at your shark there, I would say first of all.
[00:35] Maybe the exception of one on here and these hyperscales have balance sheets that are some of the best in the world.
[00:35] Just like balance sheets, they're rated AA, even though they've taken their combined kind of a free cash flow from 250 billion a couple years ago to zero.
[00:35] Or negative now as they're borrowing to invest, they're still incredibly strong. So for most of those companies, even if this AI trade and Spain.
[00:35] gets disrupted or even kind of pauses and we're not saying that, but even if it did happen, even though they borrowed this money, they're just going to go back to making.
[00:35] Of money and doing the other stuff they always do. And they're going to be just fine. So this is a dislocation. I think where way he was probably alluding to there.
[00:36] Other companies, and there's a lot of them in this AI ecosystem, and we're not just talking about Microsoft or NviIdia.
[00:36] Or Google, we're talking about companies that don't have that type of balance sheet profile, they're weaker, some of them are high yield company.
[00:36] Theyre levered balance sheets. And while they may be doing fine now while the they have a tailwind with regards to their.
[00:36] Not of it turns to a headwind, but that win just kind of shuts down, there's a lot of connectedness in this ecosystem and while the Nvi,
[00:36] Microsoft of the world are going to be just fine based upon their core businesses, these other companies might have a really hard time servicing their debt and at that point in time,
[00:36] This kind of broad ecosystem, there might be much more interesting investment opportunities and we' be talking about things other than spreads and more about discounts and dollars.
[00:36] What kinds of companies are you hinting at Brian, can you give us some names or at least get a little bit more granular?
[00:37] We'll keep the individual exposure names, we'll keep that for a one on one with you and I Scarlet, I would just say you know there's a lot of kind of smaller.
[00:37] Without the balance sheets, maybe kind of suppliers, maybe kind of smaller companies within the kind of the chip space that are reliant for.
[00:37] Their own funding, not just like on the debt markets that we're talking about today, but even just getting most of their financing and money from companies.
[00:37] Like NviDdia or others, and if that tends to slow down or get shut off, they're going to have a real problem with their liability structure.
[00:37] A lot of what we're talking about when it comes to supply and demand or technical factors, supply overhang, wider spreads, what about the fundamentals?
[00:37] Developments or even suggestive headlines at this point would cause a meaningful rericing or reallocation in the credit and and equity market.
[00:37] Yeah, I think what ultimately comes down to is how much are we going to continue to see spend for?
[00:37] casts increase and kind of by default issuance forecasts increase and then when do we start to see.
[00:38] Some of the monetization of this and return on investment, and that's especially important for some of these smaller companies.
[00:38] That are a little bit more interconnected and dependent on the Broery ecosystem succeeding and you know, so far it's been, I would say a little bit.
[00:38] a mixed bag this earnings season and there has been a little bit of disappointment, even around earnings that have been you know generally pretty.
[00:38] Strong and so it does seem like expectations and reality are a little bit mismatched right now, in Europe and the U investors are.
[00:38] to short term credit to lock in elevated yields, while longer durations have kind of struggled, is this an effective way to get income.
[00:38] Reducing some interest rate sensitivity absolutely, especially today, I mean you know.
[00:38] Yesterday we had a steepening in the yield curve and all the news today and publications we're kind of highlighting that, although you know, that feels like,
[00:39] To be honest with you, like a lot of drama, it felt like yesterday's steepening of the curve was more about kind of positioning and as Winy was saying, kind of a slow summer low.
[00:39] Vumes kind of pushing things around, I think we all got to step back and we're looking at the front end of the yield curve 40 basis points higher.
[00:39] Yield relative to the long end of the yield curve. So year to date, despite yesterday's move, the front end of the yield curve looks more attractive today.
[00:39] Then the long end, while still producing similar type of income levels, so the short answer your question for your listeners and for investors out there.
[00:39] Yeah, I think the short end of the yield curve, whether you're expressing it through treasuries or high quality corporate bonds looks like an attractive place to be.
[00:39] Weinning final question to you within this shorter duration, if that's what people are doing, iss it worth moving down in quality and investment grade going from Aaa to AA or.
[00:39] I think in some cases, yes, you still have to have credit selection at the forefront, especially given where we are kind of in the.
[00:39] In the AI cycle, there are definitely opportunities to add some alpha to portfolios by moving down the credit rating spectrum.
[00:40] Like a lot of the high yield double B universe, but you are not necessarily getting compensated, like you once work from a spread perspective.
[00:40] Much more of that all in yield dynamic All right, thank you so much guys really appreciate your joining us today for the credit roundtable whennie Caesar.
[00:40] Of creditit sites and brian wh and of TCW in sunny California, and if you can't get enough talk on credit, be sure to check out the bloomloberg.
[00:40] Credit edge weekly podcast available on the bloomberg terminal and wherever you get your podcasts still ahead president tru.
[00:40] has his eye on a new beautification project in washington this time it's at dulllles airport he wants to help the airport take off with a more than $20 billion.
[00:40] Makeover that and more next in our MuY moment, this is real yield.
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[00:42] You need to do this, you need to do that and she doesn't let her age hold her back advise you.
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[00:43] 🎼Un ofia and this is.
[00:44] We're just about halfway through the trading day in new york.
[00:44] I'm norra melinda let's take a look at your midday movers first up treasuries are rallying led by the front end of the curve policy.
[00:44] Your yield is down five basis points to 4.1% that's just a day after the fed left interest rates unchanged.
[00:44] 30 year yield is climbing to 5.2% the equity market though is shaking off yesterday's declines rebound.
[00:44] With tech leading the way the nasdaq 100 up 3% strong big tech earnings and fresh economic data are reinforced.
[00:44] The view that the economy remains in good shape without overheating and micro the biggest boost to the market today.
[00:44] Is heading for its best day since 2008 that's after reporting its fastest cloud growth in four years revenue fromzure jumped.
[00:45] 43% in the fiscal fourth quarter and finally more big tech earnings after the closing bell today.
[00:45] AppleBoth slated to report investors will be watching AI spend at amazon and whether Apple's latest iPhonephone redesign is helping.
[00:45] Those are your midday movers'mda.
[00:45] President trump announcing this week his latest makeover project for the nation's capital he has got his eye on overhauling and expanding washington.
[00:45] Thank you for being here as we unveil exciting plans for a major and long over.
[00:45] Renovation and Re of Washington's really horribly thought of dulllles International Airport.
[00:45] Bloomberg's Ashna Shah joins us she's been reporting on the story and Ashha, this is a more than $20 billion overhaul of dulllles airport.
[00:45] The obvious question is, how is it going to be financed Yeah, so a big portion of this project is going to be financed through the municipal bond market. know, it's a very common financing tool.
[00:46] airport renovation projects across the country, so the airport authority that owns and operates Duuls airport will work with unit Airlines.
[00:46] Another airlines that operate out of dulllles and they will come together to finance the renovations happening to the concourses.
[00:46] ions to the facilities and it'll come through the municipal bond market right and they already the airport already has a $7 billion capital plan so.
[00:46] Have some runway to get started at least I feel like we talk about this quite often airports needing to renovate is not necessary.
[00:46] outlier here, but the amount that we're talking about is quite substantial compared to some of the other airport renovation projects.
[00:46] billion is a huge number, but we're seeing those types of projects happen across the country. I mean, if you look at JfK that's a 19 billion project that's happening combination.
[00:46] Of municipal bonds, private P projects. And so you have a combination of all these different financing tools to create these really.
[00:47] Big renovation projects, you know that's happening all the way from New Yorkrk to san franco and LA these airports are really old, you know they they were deck.
[00:47] And decades ago, they were built. And so now they're coming up on capacity constraints. They're coming up on passengers just wanting a more luxury premium.
[00:47] And so, these airports really do have to invest. Everyone wants a lounge. So I guess that's part of the renovation. So talk a little bit about the specific.
[00:47] Renovations that we're looking for at washing dulllles, so they're thinking of, you know, replacing the c concourse.
[00:47] A big portion of it is also getting rid of the people movers, so they have these mobile lounges that are basically like shuttle buses, they get passengers.
[00:47] Between different gates throughout the airport, trying to get rid of that. and then also Trump said he wants to build a unit Polaris lounge there, which should be the big.
[00:47] In theI noticed that sby, the United CEO, was there at that announcement much.
[00:47] Bloomberg municipal reporters here staying with Munis, let's take a look at the higher ed sector because forwarthmore college a small liberal arts school.
[00:48] Near philadelphia just lost its aaa credit rating joining us now to report on that story is bloomberg's amanda albrey and amanda this is.
[00:48] SMP removing its Aa rating from swarthwar, not anyone else am I correct that's correct S.
[00:48] Took Swarthmore down just one level to AA plus, so still a very strong credit rating, Swarthmore is still one of the most prestigious.
[00:48] Universities in the US, its acceptance rate is below 8%, but really the issue that S&P flagged was with rising.
[00:48] Dead and they made the point that the school is very much still in demand among undergraduate students, but the issue is really just debt.
[00:48] The college has taken on how much debt has it taken on so the school has about 500 million of Muni's outstanding.
[00:48] According to S&P, and so we saw them sell bonds last year as part of a few campus projects that they're undertaking.
[00:49] They've really kind of prided themselves on their very beautiful campus, they've renovated Martin Hall, which is kind of a campus.
[00:49] Hub, and they've also sought to become carbon neutral. So they the school says that this is helping just kind of.
[00:49] Great more longevity with its buildings, which a lot of schools have identified as a priority because they want to make sure that when students visit, that they're very impressed.
[00:49] With the campus facilities and therefore want to attend right and want to apply and of course, keep that admission rate lowman.
[00:49] Talk about companies or institutions getting a downgrade, the risk is that they might see higher borrowing costs as a result.
[00:49] To happen here with Smore I don't really see it as a risk with this situation just because the school is so highly rated.
[00:49] And its endowment is approaching $3 billion, so investors will really look past this downgrade, a lot of them have their own internal rate.
[00:49] Systems, and I think that they're going to see you know, that acceptance rate, the number of applications and kind of look past this downgrade right.
[00:50] Amanda albright, thank you so much bloombergs, amanda albright, one of our community reporters and I meant to say acceptance rate, not admission rate, the acceptance rate is low, the admission rate is probably.
[00:50] Higher than that still ahead our final thought on real yield, the fed holding rate study, but not without what kevin wsh likes to call a family fight.
[00:50] This is Ra Y, I'm Bloomberg.
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[00:52] In comeses the car into Downing street Bloomberg has you covered Burnham arriving for all the context and clarity you need.
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[00:52] I asked for a good family fight and I got one.
[00:52] Discussion were on the big questions that matter to the conduct of monetary policy we didn't sort of hide from.
[00:52] Then we weren't scared of them, there was a lot more interaction between among my colleagues, it was a real family fight that's the better way.
[00:52] To get policy that's our North star that was Federaler chair Kevinsh's comments on the family.
[00:53] Fight taking place among policymakers. he really likes that phrase a lot. What do you think he meant by initially and what do you think the market understands it to be.
[00:53] Well, I think what he meant was that he wanted an open frank discussion where people would argue with.
[00:53] Each other and to a certain extent that happens now over the last few years, there's been criticisms from former Fed officials that it's gotten a little bit.
[00:53] Stged because of the fact that they have the transcripts out in five years, i'm not sure because i'm not invited into the meetings.
[00:53] Whether it's that or not, but the whole thing of a family fight and the improving monetary policy doesn't make a lot of.
[00:53] Sense because it assumes that until Kevine wsh got there, they didn't discuss any of this stuff and that's not case and that's not the case.
[00:53] Talking about it for a long time and a number of the things that his task force are looking at, data, he says the feded should have more up to date data he sites companies that put.
[00:53] Da Walalmart, which has its sales data, but there are a lot of problems with that in terms of statistically adjusting the numbers so they make sense.
[00:54] In a macro sense, and also with the fact that those companies charge.
[00:54] A lot for it, the Fed may be able to pay it, but the statistical agencies, the BA and BlS, they've had to drop a number of those because they can.
[00:54] it so unless ke's going to write a check, they're still going to have problems with that.
[00:54] IThis time aroundIs that unusual I know that in the bank of Englandg you often have three dissenters and it's fine no one reads too much into that.
[00:54] we be reading into this at the F I think people are reading too much into it this time, these are the same three that.
[00:54] Ved together in a dissent in april because they thought the fed should take out the bias statement.
[00:54] It'asing then so it's not like this is a new position for them and if you're just saying, well there three of them voted to raise.
[00:55] Well, that's a logical extension of what they had been saying all along and a couple of them Hammock and Logan had actually said in the last couple weeks.
[00:55] Should be raising rates now the fact that there is a contingent in the Fed that wants to raise rates is no secret and there are many.
[00:55] Beyond those three who think that something needs to be done because we've been above the fed's target for.
[00:55] Five years and obviously what they're doing is not working, so I don't think there's a whole lot new in there.
[00:55] For people that chew on but that's what Kevinevin wash wanted is nothing new you look at the market reaction today, the day after the fed decision.
[00:55] Eities are flying high, and of course, there are specific reasons there when it comes to earnings, for instance. But the bond market is kind of extending the.
[00:55] From yesterday, how would you read that and what does that mean for what happens at jackson hole Well, I think there are three aspects to it one is that.
[00:55] The bond market is pricing in uncertainty now, so the term premium goes up at the longer end the bond market is.
[00:56] So concerned that maybe the fed will be slower to raise interest rates and then the third is that Congress is talking about a budget now that will add another.
[00:56] trillion dollars to the debt so there's a lot of reasons for the market to be skeptical about where rates should be All right Michael mKee as always, thank you so much.
[00:56] Its our international economics and policy correspondent that does it for this hour of real yield from new yo, keep it here because we've got balance of power.
[00:56] Washington up next, but in the meantime, join us again next week, same time, same place this is bloomberg.
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[00:59] Iran fires missiles into Jordan and Kuwait while LNG ships are struck in Egypt welcome to the Thursday edition.
[00:59] As the war with Iran threatens to widen into a regional conflict with another round of strikes overnight by the U.S., I'm Joe Matthew.
[00:59] Alongside kyleley lines in washing, ke, this comes a day after the Saudiis entered the conflict, actually striking targets in iraq.