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来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-07-31 05:30–06:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 212 段
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[05:30] Today with the average for a3 year fixed loan climbing to 6.66% following fed chair kevin wsh's news conference yesterday.
[05:30] Long end yields to the highest since 2007 national economic Council director kevin hasssett joined bloomberg earlier today to weigh in on war.
[05:30] His performance on rates and the weaker data we got this morning listen he's a realist.
[05:30] Really serious about getting inflation back to its target that's his job. he's a very, very pragmatic person who understands.
[05:30] The responsibility of the Fed is a dual mandate and the part of the mandate that's been out of control recently.
[05:30] Is inflation and most of that was not the fed's fault they went around the horn earlier today with mr.
[05:30] You can catch full conversation with the national economic Council director on the terminal or online joining us now with her take on the economic picture is heater.
[05:31] A former member of the Council of economiccon Advors in the biden administration and heather, i'm curious your thoughts as you watched this fed meeting yesterday.
[05:31] knowing what policymakers were up against, whether that was the opportunity to hike and the visceral reaction from w.
[05:31] Is Kevin W ready for prime time Well's a that's a great question that's a question to ask him and the president, but I mean, here's the thing.
[05:31] , the fact that markets responded the way they did indicates that they didn't they didn't think that his approach to what.
[05:31] He was saying about where the monetary authorities were going, I had as much credibility as I think Kevin, the chair.
[05:31] I hoped it would I mean, everyone can see that prices are going up, we just got new data today and given that the.
[05:31] Is back on with Iran and tariffs are up, this is creating a challenge for the Federal Reserve and they're going to have to act on it.
[05:31] And him hiding the ball and not being clear about that does not seem to have gone over very well.
[05:32] So when we consider then the question of Kevine Wsh's credibility, that does seem to be what the market was contending with yesterday.
[05:32] And into today, as well as we heard from mor stanley's chief economist micha gapan earlier today on bloomloomberg surveillance, this is what he told our colleagues other.
[05:32] I think fed credibility took a hit yesterday. It doesn't mean it's not recoverable, I think in the.
[05:32] Outcome of the meeting was we're not sure what you're doing. So, yes, I thought you might be credible in this direction. I got a different message.
[05:32] Credibility suffered a bit. it's not permanent, but to your question on intent, again, if you don't fill a gap.
[05:32] With your view, other views will go in it, whether they're right or wrong, we'll ultimately see on.
[05:32] got to heather about whether or not this is recoverable is the only way to recover from it to hike rates.
[05:33] That's a good question, you know, certainly what we are seeing is an economy where there's a lot of concerns about inflation we got data today.
[05:33] That shows that has not been accelerating over the past quarter using the fed's preferred rate, but it remains too high and again.
[05:33] The administration keeps taking actions that are raising costs for families that are making things like gas and electricity and other things more.
[05:33] Expensive for people all across the country alongside healthcare and things like this, and making it hard for wages to keep up with the pace of price increases.
[05:33] So that all seems like a big problem, know on the other hand, we have a labor market that is it's not in the tank.
[05:33] Certainly not as robust as we would like and again wages are failing to keep up with inflation so I think the F is in a difficult situation but.
[05:33] They clearly are not communicating their intentions and that is upending markets do you think about this?
[05:33] F underway here heater boer 5.2% on the 30 year, the highest we've seen in almost 20 years.
[05:34] A simply to wash yesterday or more. Well, I think under some of your questions is really what's going on.
[05:34] The fundamentals of the economy, and I think there's a lot of conversations that we're having here in Washington that I'm hearing every day is.
[05:34] What's happening with AI, what's happening with this investment, big questions, what is that going to do to the job market, but really what is that doing to investment?
[05:34] How much of capital is being sucked into these investments in AI and will that lead to the kind of productivity gains that we would like to see?
[05:34] Without the kinds of job losses that we don't want to see so we're at this moment where there's a lot of questions on the technology side, there's also a lot of questions in.
[05:34] Of where this government is headed, what they will do and what's going to happen with global energy prices.
[05:34] That you had right before this one on the war, what is happening there and what that does to global energy prices and how long this lasts.
[05:35] Remains an unknown shock that the economy is going to have to weather through Well and of course the F.
[05:35] With its tools aren't necessarily best positioned to respond to a supply side shock like that if they do indeed tighten policy because of inflation.
[05:35] s beinging driven in large part by higher energy prices is that just going to tumble us potentially into stagflation at the least?
[05:35] In a recession at the worst Well, Kaella, you're laying out some real worst case scenarios here, and I think that is the problem.
[05:35] The Fed is the central banks have really big and important tools, they have control over financials.
[05:35] They have control over interest rates, the cost of borrowing, but what they don't control is all of the other things that have to do with our supply chains.
[05:35] son that we've learned over the past few years, both how fragile and how brittle supply chains can be, how difficult it can be to get things up and running again.
[05:35] And importantly, how energy shocks work their way through the economy, so yes, the F.
[05:36] Does have some tools to deal with this, but as I keep coming back to, this is also about what the administration is doing, the administration itself is.
[05:36] Raising prices for consumers, it's creating real tough choices, you know, families have spent on average over $500 around $500.
[05:36] Over the past year on higher energy prices because of the war in Iran, you add to that all the people who've seenre.
[05:36] Mtgage rates are going up, we already know housing is a problem, but of course, health insurance costs going up because of the cutbacks and supports to families, all of this means,
[05:36] People don't have money to spend on other sorts of goods and services, so you have to have the fiscal authorities.
[05:36] Working with the monetary authorities, and I think that's where we've seen real challenges and lack of clarity, so it isn't just at the Fed, it is with this administration.
[05:36] We generally important headline from overseas late today, heather with the yen up over 3% here.
[05:37] On signs of intervention, the Nikkei says Japanpan indeed intervened in the market again.
[05:37] Exchange market citing market participants, U.. authorities are requesting quotes now on the dollar yen rate what this tell you?
[05:37] And how would you have handled this if you were still in the White House Well, fortunately, that wasn't my portfolio, so I would not have been dealing with the international.
[05:37] Exchange rate issues, but I think this speaks to this larger question, which is when we have in a country as big as the United States.
[05:37] It's as economically important as we are, acting in a way that is so often inconsistent.
[05:37] A few minutes ago before the segment started, you never know one day to the next what our foreign economic policy will look like, what tariffs will look like.
[05:37] makess it harder for everyone else to ensure stability across markets and'm.
[05:37] The U.. treasury is going to have something to say about this if indeed this was intervention, we know s Besson has had some pretty strong feelings.
[05:38] About that heater, of course, as you talk about, you never know what's coming one day to the next, it definitely is true for tariff policy, which is what we were.
[05:38] D prior to the segment, we obviously have higher tariff rates going back in to replace rates that were expired.
[05:38] What is really the net effect of these on odd economic behavior at this point as we are seeing obviously?
[05:38] Inflation being driven by the Middle East has't necessarily been because of the tariffs as well Well I think what we've seen is thats have added.
[05:38] To the problem, they're adding to price increases for consumers, but also for businesses. And one of the things we know is that it's difficult for.
[05:38] mTo readjust their supply chains on a dime. It requires time and investment, domestic investment.
[05:38] One of the things that popped out to me from today's new report on GDP is that factory construction is falling.
[05:39] Its down below its peak of a couple, maybe six quarters ago, I can't remember exactly, and I mean, that's an important indicator.
[05:39] Of how U. investors and US.. firms are dealing with the supply side shocks that they're seeing in terms of the tariffs, it's going to take them time to.
[05:39] up that capacity domestically, but of course, we know the administration has been cutting back on supports for that kind of.
[05:39] Investment in a variety of ways, the presidents, President Trump's administration, of course, has admitted that they have cut back grants.
[05:39] OrInvestments in energy in states that did not vote for him, which is an incredible abdication of your responsibility is a.
[05:39] A federal policymaker in so many ways, so for the tariffs caused this chaos without the.
[05:39] s and the help that communities need that businesses need to make the investments so that people can get the things that they need from the market.
[05:39] So again, it's a chaotic way to implement this, even if you think there's some good at the end of the day, which it's unclear because so often.
[05:40] And just like this round of tariffs, they appear more capricious than they do grounded in sound economic thinking.
[05:40] All right, heater boer, former member of the Council of economicconomic Advors in the Biden administration, thank you so much and on the subject of tariffs, the Amazonaz earnings call.
[05:40] Is underway and the CF just said amazon received $600 million in tariff refunds in the second quarter and are issuing automated tariff refund.
[05:40] To some of its customers, but that's not the big headline out of the earnings call it's instead the capex number $220 billion in capex is what amaz.
[05:40] I expecting this year most of that on AI joining us now for more on that ised Lulow once again, the host of bloomberg tech soed what else we learning?
[05:40] Not just from Amazon's car, but Apples as well. Yeah, I mean, Amazon, that is the big headline. They had told us Capex was 200 billion. They've added 20 billion.
[05:40] And with more detail that that is largely being spent on AI, remember, Amazon's business is multifaceted. It is an e- business.😊
[05:41] With which we're very familiar. and the tariffs largely relate probably to that e-commerce business. Then there's a cloud business. It's not the majority of revenue.
[05:41] But it's the majority of operating income and it's there where this Capex is really going, so it's a big headline and what's changed since we spoke at the top of the show.😊
[05:41] Is that Amazon's gain in after hours has really accelerated, and Apple's decline has really accelerated and deepened to a drop of almost.😊
[05:41] 8% now beyond 7%. Apple, the headlines very different. We posed the question, how difficult is the world going.
[05:41] look for Apple in three months relative to now. Well, we have some information that fiscal fourth quarter revenue is going to be growth of 9% to 11%.
[05:41] Street wanted to hear Apple say that growth would be beyond 12%. And what Tim Cook's talking about is that actually memory prices that he's going to be.
[05:41] ingOr not him, actually, he's stepping down as CEO right E of September 1t, But Apple is going to be paying will be higher, and they're trying to manage those.
[05:41] constraints. But guys, no sentimentality for Tim Cook's final call. He had an opportunity to say his farewell, but the.
[05:42] This talks down a lot amazing so what we've had for the big seven so far the mag seven Ed and we're two and two.
[05:42] Five, we've had Tesla, we still have Nvi to cast.
[05:42] Maybe it because we had you know what is mason time for in the last that's right.
[05:42] In the last, but the point is we've got a pretty mixed picture as we try to figure out where we're going in the next quarter, maybe we shouldn't be lumping them all into the same group anymore here, huh?
[05:42] Yeah, look, the two metrics that matter still are spending and then the return on that spending.😡
[05:42] Gave us an even bigger Capex number for this year. But the stock in afterars did not change trajectory because Amazon had also given us.
[05:42] Lots of different data points that they're seeing growth in different lines of business related to AI. So AWs is the cloud unit.
[05:43] Overall growth 37% was beyond the 31% the street expected, but they also gave us other metrics, for example, their AI.
[05:43] Business, which is revenues they derive directly from selling AI services, it could be a place where you train or host models like bedrock.😡
[05:43] Has a revenue run rate of $25 billion. their chip business where they have in house chips. They develop the silicon themselves, renting computers.
[05:43] Cacity based on those away from NviDdia GPs, much higher margin than $25 billion run rate business This is just all extra.
[05:43] And you know we've seen that with the winners, Microsoft gave extra data points, others didn't, and they were punished for it in the after hours.
[05:43] All right, bloombergs a Ludlow, thank you very much and still ahead, we'll talk about the massive amount of money elon musk.
[05:43] be spending in this year's midters a new report that puts a price tag on his renewed political involvement on behalf of republicans that more.
[05:43] Thelitical panel joins next on balanceance of Power on Bloomberg TV and 3D.
[05:45] My old mentor Roger Saawbaak, who told me when I transitioned, footballball will never leave you, but you need to leave it Wow.
[05:45] Everyone has a dream and a lot of dreams are know, my dream is to play football and play professional football and you get the dream comes true, but it is going to end.
[05:45] Da it ends, the day before it ends, you're one of the best in the world Great, the next day you wake up, that's gone What you.
[05:45] And the truth is nothing right I'm not great at anything else I talk about it all the time, Steve is this whole idea of iss not from penhouse to penthouse.
[05:45] And what I mean by that is you played for 15, 20 years and you're in the penthouse, that doesn't mean that you come to the business world and you're going to be in pen.
[05:45] Now you don't start in the third floor or the lobby, you actually have to start in the basement.
[05:46] 🎼I'm David Weston. join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism. this week, Harvard's Jason Furman on the F decision.
[05:46] The European Union moves to reform its merger regulation, but will it get the tech industry going Johnson Johnson.
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[05:47] In terms of political spending, I'm going to do a lot less in the future.
[05:47] And why is that I think I've done enough.
[05:47] 🎼Is itIs it because of blowback Well if I see a reason to do political spending.
[05:47] In the future I will do it and are currently see reason This is balance of power on bloomloomberg TV and radio.
[05:47] Alongside joe matthew, i'm kayly Lys and that was elon musk speaking with bloomberg in may of 2025 fast forward to today.
[05:47] In july of 2026 and mosk is reportedly seeing reason to get back in the political game the tla and Space founder and biggest.
[05:47] 2024 presidential election is expected to spend $100 to $120 million dollars over the course of the next several months to help rep.
[05:48] In this year's midters according to the new york times the times reporting citing people familiar that musk has authorized his super PAmerica.
[05:48] That amount on a new field program to promote turnout in at least8 states planning to initially target senate races in alaka, iowa, mainine, michigan.
[05:48] Remember it was just last year that musk's tesla board sought to curb his political involvement as part of a negotiation over a $1 trillion.
[05:48] Musk threatened to quit over the request and was rewarded that pay anyway us now our political panel.
[05:48] Kristen H is with us and mick Mulvaney, former acting chief of staff and Donald tru's first term co founding member of the house.
[05:48] Freedom caucus Krisristen, of course, a partner at rock solutions it's great to see you both welcome back.
[05:48] Eon musk clearly doesn't think much of the Republicanub Party isn't that pocket change for him mid that's a pretty decent.
[05:49] by the way, he won't be the only person I don't think in the country over $100 million no that's a joke, that's a lot of money just what happened though?
[05:49] He was talking there with the flight jacket on to suddenly now there's a reason, man, that was may of 2025 that was ages ago, what are we talking about?
[05:49] And what did he say he said, I'll do it if I, you know, look, the deal's the deal until it's no longer the deal, I mean he's not making a long term commitment, by the way.
[05:49] What the chances of him changing his mind before he write a check for well5050 flip a coin Well does it make you nervous as a democrat think that?
[05:49] lon musk may very well spend $100 million dollars to get people to knock on doors in states you want to win no i mean like there's a well, there's a lot of money.
[05:49] On all sides, right everybody has their individuals dollars between their party committees, between mag8.
[05:49] our students have also raised a lot of money and then the DNCs borrowing against the building.
[05:49] The D trip is the Hmp at the Senatenate Major pack house, majority p the super PAac, senator Ford, other organizations, there's a lot of money coming.
[05:50] And on both sides, I think that you know on campaigns, you know, you saturate the airwaves to a certain point, I think the fact that he spoke.
[05:50] Fing on the ground game is really important I just hope he's learned something because you know he did this in that very high profile wissin.
[05:50] Supreme Court raised look, campaigns are a business, they are, it's not something that you just do sort of intuitively, I think he learned this at Do.
[05:50] Government is the same way, it's its own thing and you can learn how to do it and there are people who are really good at it and there are people who are not really good at it.
[05:50] On this effort than they did in Wisconsin in the way they spend the money or the way he presents himself. know we spend the money, throwing money is really.
[05:50] going to be the issue. she's right. Chris is right. There's going to be plenty of money on both sides. and the dirty little secret in the business is you don't really need to have more money than the other side.
[05:50] To win you just enough have to have enough money to do the job, and then you have to do it correctly and not put yourself right in the middle of it, right because he would.
[05:51] He made himself a face of never forget the face like what are you doing just like you said, leave it to the people who knew it good news for Democrats think of the commercial.
[05:51] You're going to make of the chainsaw of what was it again, bureaucracy of the cheese head, the jumping up and down the black eye that Scott best in.
[05:51] The burning teslas, the fallout with trump is that the face of can't you have fun with this as a campaigner?
[05:51] If he makes himself the face of it, if he does something super embarrassing in the next, know, couple months, then maybe there's like a, you know, there's we'll do something.
[05:51] Online that'll be funnier and that you can get some views, but no, like this is all about like what's affordable, I mean, let's go back to the issue.
[05:51] People still don't trust Democrats that we we're offering a good alternative, so we're not going to focus.
[05:51] lon MuskWe're not shifting our entire messaging program away from affordability to Ellon why focus on Ellon Musk when you can focus on Donald Trump.
[05:51] I mean, that's you beat up on people like that, we've done this before as Republicansan as well when you really don't want to talk about the issues, they want to talk about the issues.
[05:52] They want to talk about affordability and they want to talk about inflation that's leading their way so far in this cycle, so by the way, let's look at it.
[05:52] if you do see the running ads that feature elon musk, it means the other stuff isn't working Well on the subject of what democrats want to talk about there.
[05:52] Not a monolith and sometimes they want to talk about things in different ways, perhaps further from the left and more from the center, we're certainly seeing that on display kristen.
[05:52] Michi we got some new polling out for the democratic senate primary from emerson college Abbdulel up 15 points on haley.
[05:52] 's54 to 39% and he just runs away with it on those at the younger end of the spectrum haley sts is only doing better than.
[05:52] And with those over 60, does that make you nervous have to eat my words if I am completely wrong about this, but I have done this before?
[05:52] show I think that is wrong, I really do and i've known Haley for a really long time and she is surged.
[05:53] you know, over the past like month and a half, six weeks, right, and then so I think what you see, there's a lot of money coming in there.
[05:53] You know, he has this very socialist, drives me crazy that people call it the Democratic socialist Party I'm like, and he is not socialist, by the way, he is a progressive.
[05:53] He is not is said that he's not you know, endorsed by them, but they are sending throngs to people I like calling it the doctor.
[05:53] But no that they're sending everybody in and they're working on his behalf Haley does all people.
[05:53] There's one thing for sure, this is every eye is going to be on Michigan, come Tuesday and what's going to happen next.
[05:53] real bellwether, as opposed to some of the's as purple as you're going to get is it's a bellwether to a certain extent, right?
[05:53] More so than like those races that happen in new york like the like about those seats, we really care about this Senatenate seat, right?
[05:53] He can't win in a general election, like I just don't believe that, So it is some sort of bellwether. Now, when you talk about the midterms is.
[05:54] Like a presidential bellwether, like each candidate is different, you know, in different states and different districts, so if he wins it mean.
[05:54] we' this DSA narrative, though, they're going to connect the dots from New York to michi to Colorado to California, this is doing it for me I don't say.
[05:54] That's the narrative, but you're right, I think Michigan is to me one of the more interesting races for a couple of different reasons, one of which is and this doesn't get a lot of attention.
[05:54] No incumbent Okay, Maine is a purple state, Georgia is a purple state, North Carolina is a purple state, well North Carolina' is a little bit different because Cooper is sort of an incumbent because he was governor.
[05:54] This is a wide open race and you don't have that power of incumbency like you have, say in Maine, so I'm fasci to hear you say that you don't think that Ela,
[05:54] It has any chance in a general election because clearly there's a lot of Democrats who think that he does or at least hoping that he does I thought I saw some polling that said he,
[05:54] Actually actually not that far behind Rogers in a theoretical matchup, so maybe I'm wrong about that, but no for all these reasons.
[05:55] Michigan will get a lot of attentionWe could talk more about this, but before we let you go, M, I also want to ask you about what's happening with Todd Blanche and his nomination.
[05:55] Be held up with the standoff between Coryn and dillis and the doj and perhaps the white house, does this resolve itself or is Trumpmp really going to?
[05:55] Let me see corn and corn andis what do those guys have in that bill exactly right.
[05:55] folks that Donald Trumpmp ran out of the Senatenate, and I still think it's one of the great miscalculations, one of the few really serious mistakes that this white House.
[05:55] Has made politically in that you don't burn your bridges this early, I mean, you have to live with these guys now for the next six months.
[05:55] They have the ability because the margins are so tight to make the White house's life absolutely miserable, I think, look, I'd be curious to see what happens.
[05:55] They do get the written confirmation from Blanche that they want regarding this slush fund for the January 6, I think it's January 6th folks, right?
[05:55] The issue I'm not even sure that's going to solve the issue for Tillson Corn, any quick advice on the acting title for Todd Blanch?
[05:56] He can keep it for a year and if he calls me I can tell him how to keep it longer than a year wow that's news you can use Im glad that we did that.
[05:56] 20 seconds Kristen is Tod Lalanch confirmed before the recess I don't know before the recess, no chance, oh no.
[05:56] no they hearing the hearing today there's no hearing next week for Blanche in.
[05:56] This was fun, thank you so much for joining us, check out the Washington edition newsletter for more coverage and we'll see you back here tomorrow on balanceal of Power on Bloomberg TV.
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[05:59] In case you missed it on the clothes you're entering into Mexico, your first store there, a big one out.
[05:59] Theyre in the Monterey region why do you think you can make that work we believe know Mexico is a really important milestone for our great brand as we continue.
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