Bloomberg直播仅提到AI资本开支韧性及欧洲个股评级上调，未出现可交易的新订单或硬催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-03 15:00–15:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 200 段
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--- 转录正文 ---
[15:00] Bottom of the basket as we expected, energy down 1.8% off the back of the lower oil price Bent currently trading.
[15:00] Let me find it at $83 a barrel so down 5.5%, as you say, that meaning that the foot these gains are held back.
[15:00] What this morning, but just some of those individual energy names that we had flagged as well, total energy down 2.5% in Paris.😊
[15:00] On this news, perhaps that it's going to sell its European renewables energy stake to KKR, also keeping an eye on She.😊
[15:00] hich is down more than 2% that's selling its renewable energies portfolio in Europe to total.😊
[15:00] A bit of musical chairs when it comes to the energy names and then just going back to the Italian banks that we'd flagged, well Paskys down 8 tenths a percent.😊
[15:00] Pm up4 tenths of percent and in Testa San Paulo up eight tenths of8%, so again the musical chairs for Italian banking M&A play.😊
[15:00] cro threeYes and we've mentioned the energy names on the backford travel and leisure and things related to it seems to be doing well so you've got air.
[15:01] One of the best performers in terms of the Europe stocks 50 this morning and Saf around the engine maker, so both of those you could put those together perhaps.😊
[15:01] The airlines of course, part of that trade as well, so Tuy, Ryananair, IAG all up by more than 1.9%.
[15:01] Let's take a step back perhaps from the daily moves and talk about where we go on these markets, Gatam at Samath joins us a multi asset fund manager at MNG Investment.
[15:01] Nice to have with us you for joining us How do you keep paces to keep track of the oil price moves because we're down another5%.😊
[15:01] And on other days, we've been sitting here, we've been up 5%. It seems like this kind of percentage move is nothing unusual right now. real volatility.
[15:01] marketsDo you just have to construct portfolios that withstand a lot of volatility and a broadly higher energy price.
[15:01] The landscape, you do, you do the volatility in the oil price is something that we've got used to, certainly.
[15:02] Let'd say over the past six months, but even if you cast your mind back to the breakout of first conflict of you, which is.
[15:02] Over a year ago, ultimately, what the market worries about is what are the inflation pass through effects of oil?
[15:02] Therefore what a policy response functions to this and looking through all of this, there are some big picture.
[15:02] That we've learned of last year we've learned that the world's pretty resilient. It can deal with supply shocks in a way that we didn't think was possible pre covid.
[15:02] And if that can happen, then we can start to fade some of the impacts of the.
[15:02] Day to day news announcements. When is this conflict going to resolve, how it's going to resolve, how long it's going to take. We have no idea about what we can say.
[15:02] Is that the system is dealing with supply shocks in a much more resilient fashion so the global economy can deal with those supply shocks and it has been.
[15:02] With what's coming out of the Middle East quite really well, considering expectations. Can the AI theme deal with higher rates, and is that what we should.
[15:03] Prepare ourselves for. And I guess I mean this in the context of whether the Fed has to put up rates or whether the markets just decide they need a.
[15:03] to hold U. debt so the two big surprises this year have been won the resilience to the oil price shock.
[15:03] And the second one has been the upgrade of Capex spend and investments going towards the AI theme.
[15:03] That if you think about the counterfactual Webby, you actually had a world where you didn't have these supply shocks. you might be in a disinflationary boomer.
[15:03] , you've got productivity gains, potential productivity gains coming through from the benefits of AI.
[15:03] And you've got rapid build out of infrastructure that is stemming up, certainly if you look at the US.S economy, lot of the.
[15:03] The investment spending coming from that sector, so absolutely it's got legs to go and there isn't that much f behind it.
[15:04] It pocketets of fraud, but in aggregate, you don't see what you've seen them prior in if you don't think it's vulnerable to higher rates than that AI build out.
[15:04] It will be, you're pushing up against sort of limits of cost of capital right now as you move from equity financing to debt financing, that will matter.
[15:04] to see that in the difference in terms of certainly, if you look at CS of companies that can build out with cash flow internal versus.
[15:04] Having to raise debt for it, you're seeing the impacts of it at the margin, but I think there's plenty of capital willing to chase this.
[15:04] in the different pockets in which it. Well, yeah, you want to know when that inflection point will be when you get the disinary boom, how big it will.
[15:04] And whether really you have to wait for oil to fall and for deficits to shrink to be a boom as you're calling it.😊
[15:04] You do, and that'll be difficult to call so if you can cut through into sort of look beyond 212.
[15:04] Last month, I think a lot of the conditions are in place for that to happen.
[15:05] If you think of what might have been the case, had we not had a supply side shock.
[15:05] And sort of a potential inflation flare up. You'd have rates that were possibly stable, I mean, we could argue.
[15:05] There was no need for central banks to cut rates where we were in the growth cycle, where the labor market is, but you'd have lower cost of capital.
[15:05] A theme that was accelerating. And meanwhile, all the underlying service level inflation that we were working.
[15:05] That seems to be coming off. So certainly, if you look at the core inflation numbers, the last few prints have actually been surprising.
[15:05] To the downsides, you would have had upside surprises to growth and downside surprises to inflation. Can we also just talk about the Fed, because I am wondering how.
[15:05] a problem we've talked a lot about Fed credibility already and the impact on the bond market so far this show, but I do wonder about the impact on stocks as well.😊
[15:06] Had the worst Fed day for the S&P since I think 2024 last week, how much of a problem could Fed credibility create more broadly?😊
[15:06] These markets given your multi is, it's one where they're finding the bounce between saying nothing and saying too much.😊
[15:06] After all, not saying anything is a form of communication. And when you leave open a potential.
[15:06] Interpretation of reaction function. You increase the range of outcomes, and therefore, the potential volatility. Now, you've just been through a phase where you.
[15:06] A pretty spectacular return. Certainly, if you go back to the start of April onwards, you had a pretty spectacular bounce in equity markets, especially in the.
[15:06] Of the equity market that you're talking about. And then when you create uncertainty as to what the trajectory of rates might be,.
[15:06] way to reset. I think what we've seen is a bit of a reset rather than any meaningful change in equity market trend.
[15:06] The pharmaceutical sector, whether you see that as an area to maybe broaden out from, I don't know if it's AI.😊
[15:07] But certainly if we're looking for things that are broader than just AI benefits in equity markets right now, and, of course, the news of day around the pharmaceutical sector.
[15:07] AstraZne, and we've got reporting that suggests that they could be in talks for a possible merger with Bristol Myyers Swib.
[15:07] The community doesn't seem to be thrilled by that prospect. and as you might expect, the stock is down by more than 6% today on nervousness, perhaps.
[15:07] They go and make such a big deal and it would be a really big deal within the farmer landscape Is pharmaceuticals an area of interest to you right now?😊
[15:07] So pharmaceuticals into healthcare more generally, there's been a rotation under sort of, it's interesting.
[15:07] We've seen a steady of sort of rise in equity markets, but within that we've seen quite a lot of rotation this year already, within that a rotation towards healthcare.
[15:07] It was already underway what we're seeing in terms of M&A activity, large cap M&A activity tends to happen.
[15:08] Later on in cycles, I'm not going to profess to know what the merits to emerge over here.
[15:08] Look like, but it's something that you tend to see later on in the cycle, probably talks to a bit of confidence at the corporate level.
[15:08] Something that we haven't really seen mega deals like this so far and the intent dispersion, what are the best opportunities to take advantage?
[15:08] dispers trade right now, so if you look globally, I do think Asian equities are still an attractive place.
[15:08] Certainly, if you think about in Korea or elsewhere, well, Korea is a greater trading opportunity.
[15:08] you optically look at it. It's one of the cheapest marks, although we know that those earnings are very well, they're potentially very elevated clearly.
[15:08] Very volatile, but you've just had a significant reset in a market that's trading up or down 10 plus percent in the day.
[15:08] Its a great trading opportunity, which speaks to a broader macro environment whereby this volatility creates trading opportunities across asset classes.😊
[15:09] look at valuations, Em equities, more generally, the latan complex, Asian equities, and then the debt side, some of the la.
[15:09] looks pretty attractive. Yeah, are there certain E bonds that are more attractive to you than Treasuries. Well, I'd say a Brazilian bond yielding about.
[15:09] 14.8, 15%10 year bond with a duration of less than five. those yields have rise about.
[15:09] 200 basis points for you to lose money over 12 months. That's pretty. And you thinking, Ga about this market as being sort providing.
[15:09] ical trading opportunities, or is this still a good opportunity to get in and buy any dips or is that not where we are right now?😊
[15:09] But I think the tactical opportunities are significant. The volatility being created, what we've spoken about.
[15:09] And on the show, early on, the volatility in Fx markets, the volatility that you're seeing in rates right now, especially at the long end.
[15:10] Of government bond markets. and even now, in equiities, Inter sector and most recently across the tech sector, those are big trade.
[15:10] Opportun now, if you are a big believer in this long term trend, that's a tactical entry point. Otherwise, you can just trade the.
[15:10] And so as a macro investor, it's a great time to be around$15,6 per where we trade on the end right now, time.
[15:10] multi asset fund MInvest Well let's turn over to the core six.
[15:10] How are they shaping up this morning we have all of them except for ASML in the green this morning down a.
[15:10] But boosts across most of the board now a great big inch for Nestle Novo flat.
[15:10] the biggest move there is El major 1.1% Now let's get to some of the individual stocks we're watching this morning with Chloe Melie, Chloe.
[15:10] Yes good morning Lizzie we are seeing AstraZneca take quite the hit this morning on all of this talk of M&A.😊
[15:11] Zneca is said to have explored a merger with bristol Mayers squib and this would be a major major deal creating one of the largest drug makers.😊
[15:11] In the world and we are seeing investors be not quite thrilled at that prospect because maybe a deal of this magnitude might be quite.😊
[15:11] hard to pull off and so we're down almost7% this morning for that pharmaceutical company we are also in the red this morning.😊
[15:11] Because of this optimism that we could see the U and Iran find a peace deal they are set to restart talks today to try.😊
[15:11] find an agreement to reopen the Strait of Homo and of course, this is the kind of thing that sends those oil major shares are tumbling and so we are.😊
[15:11] In particular, actually any is down the mos this morning down more than 2.7% the flip side of that of course, is that the travel sector.😊
[15:11] Airline sector is doing much better at the prospect of those fuel costs coming down, we are seeing IAG returns own British airways.😊
[15:12] y, Ryanan and Lufanza all in the green and quite strongly in the green this morning on this optimism about a potential peace deal.😊
[15:12] Also in the green for sronnic, which makes a semiconductor equipment it has been raised to a by ratingrating at eBS as follows a string.😊
[15:12] By ratings from last week with a lot of analysts saying that this is a company that is seeing a lot of very strong short term.😊
[15:12] And medium term demand. and so that is driving the stock this morning and saying within this AI theme, we also have Lo on, which is a French maker.
[15:12] Of electrical equipment to data centers being upgraded by RBc analysts with the analyst saying that the recent pullback in the shares.
[15:12] a very compelling opportunity to gain exposure to a very high margin company. And so we are seeing the shares up about 1.7%.😊
[15:12] Chloe Melly with the latest on those socks that aren on the move, one of those is Astra Seneca of course, shares in thes.😊
[15:12] Biness this morning in fact, that move in Astraca taking 55 points off the Fts 100. we will dive into what a potential take.
[15:13] Over a bristol myer squib could mean for the farmer giant that story X, this is Bberg.
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[15:16] 🎼Season is here there're earnings some areas have done well. E trading has been an area of resilience. Bloberg is first to break.
[15:16] 🎼Numbers diving through the details of these earnings. That's the weakest growth in more than three years with the smartest insights are we seem to.
[15:16] 🎼Lo that point to a little more you look what global growth expectations are compared them to the start of the year. they're actually pretty similar but theres.
[15:16] And we haven't seen it and the results continuing coverage on bloomberg.
[15:16] Welcome.
[15:16] the opening trade, we are 18 minutes into our session this Monday and we've got a fairly positive picture across European equity markets.😊
[15:17] Considersideably weaker oil price, we'll get to that narrative though because that seems to be developing, we'll get to that a little bit later on in this part of the program.
[15:17] The astraZneca story though because astrazeneca shares are considerably weaker this morning, they are down by 6.4% this comes as bloomberglands.
[15:17] That the UK drug maker, a set out explored the acquisition of Bristol Myers Sib, a deal between the two would create one of the world's largest drugs.
[15:17] Let's get more details with blueberg health reporter Ashley Furlong, who's with us on set this morning so Ashley what do we know about?😊
[15:17] The proposed deal, the extent to which there is a deal to really discuss here, not very much right now, we know that there were preliminary.
[15:17] sWe don't know if those talks are still ongoing, we don't know if they have ended, I think the context that this comes.
[15:17] is that for the past year or so, there's been a lot of rumors about a mega merger between two large pharmaceutical companies, a lot of pushback.
[15:18] Agains that as well because in the past we've seen mergers have led to reduced R&D spending, we've seen potentially increased drug price.
[15:18] The reason for why potentially now this might be the moment for such a deal is that the US administration is seen as more.
[15:18] O potentially to such a merger and less excited to push back on some of the antitrust concerns that they might be in such a deal.
[15:18] Look at what these two companies do Well, Does it look like a good deal to you because investors don't seem to be very impressed with the investors don't seem to think so.
[15:18] Fortra AstraZneca is a high growth company, they have a really big pipeline and that seems to, people think will sort of bring them into the.
[15:18] Bstol Myers Scib, on the other hand, is having more sort of concerns with pattern cliffs.😊
[15:18] The lower sort of P levels, so we sort of we're seeing a very different picture and there's less.😊
[15:18] guarante for investors that this will be a good deal for Astrazaneca I mean, you mentioned one of the motivations could be that if you're going to do a big deal,
[15:19] Maybe the regulatory backdrop in the US would look favorably on this kind of thing at this time with the current US.. League.
[15:19] That might be one motivating factor. M they also want to increase presence in the U. I mean, you've seen a lot of pressure on global pharmaceutical.
[15:19] moreThat is that other sort of potential reason thatcal sorry.
[15:19] Astrazaneca's CEO might be pushing for this increasingly Astrazaneca has made a larger presence in the US. we've seen an upgraded listing.😊
[15:19] On the New York Stock Exchange, we've seen increased investments in manufacturing and research in the US and we've seen increasingly the company position.😊
[15:19] Self as a global company, but also an American company. So that could potentially be a reason. but as we've seen this morning, investors are not exactly.
[15:19] Keen on this proposition,,, not getting the thumbs up right now. thank you very much, Ashley Bz Ashley Furland, the latest on the pharmaceutical sex.😊
[15:20] Now stick with European equities, it's a busy week ahead for earnings, but let's first take a look back at how the region has fared so far.😊
[15:20] To discuss, we're joined now by bloomomberg intelligence equity research director Tim Craighead, so Tim, we started this season.
[15:20] igh expectations would it be fair to say now we're some way through the earnings story, we've got quite a bit of clarity on where it's taking.😊
[15:20] What does it look to you Yeah so we're roughly three quarters of the way through if you think about it from a market cap exposure perspective more than two.
[15:20] Comp have reported and it is interesting it's been a pretty broad based positive earn cycle, notwithstanding a lot of.
[15:20] The concerns that we went in with high oil prices, consumer compete, et cetera you think.
[15:20] So far, it's roughly 55% beat versus 25% miss, which from a European context.
[15:20] That's a really good earnings I feel like often things are you know, ready to beat Well, they are, but you think the US.
[15:21] You look at those sort of stats quite often as 75 or 80% beat Europe doesn't play it that well the companies don't play it.
[15:21] They don't game the system, so this is actually very handily constructive and more importantly maybe for the market.
[15:21] We're tracking at about 14% earnings growth right now versus coming in, as you would said at about 11% before the.
[15:21] The results had started so they're the broad strokes, which are the sectors that are doing well and which are the detractors Yeah and this this is part of that constructive story.
[15:21] Because it is pretty broad based pharmaceuticals notwithstanding the astraZneca news this morning, several have reported.
[15:21] Quite good numbers, semi equipment in technology, industrials on the sort of broader tech play.
[15:21] In Europe, with a lot of the electrical equipment companies that play into the data center build out thesis have reported good numbers.
[15:22] TheFs with high interest rates that plays through into a higher net interest income yes, yeah, we were talking about AI adjacent.
[15:22] Things like cable makers, PrismA and doing some M&A, has been doing quite a bit of M&A Tim what about the forward looking story then, because as you say?😊
[15:22] 75% through that's not 100, we've still got some more discovery earnings so I suppose there are a couple of things.
[15:22] That come to mind here, number one, we are seeing positive estimate revisions on 2026 numbers.
[15:22] we're just beating and the 2026 estimate is static it's up, but more importantly the 2027 estimates.
[15:22] Also revising po in a like manner so it is carried into next year secondly you look right now.
[15:22] We're about 15 times earnings for the stock 600 that's essentially a 10 year average pe.
[15:22] We're not stressed on the valuation front and this week will be interesting looking ahead, we've got hSPc, which is going to give us up.
[15:23] Paul check on chin wealth management flows, we've got Novo nors, which again speaking about pharmaceuticals.
[15:23] Quite constructive in terms of the prescription trends that we think will be better than expected for the wgovi pill BPP.
[15:23] to be interesting here in the UK because of what they say about the North Sea and i think diyahi is going to be.
[15:23] Quite interesting new CEO, how is the U business going, can they get this to start to accelerate?
[15:23] do you think will be the biggest surprise to the market I'm thinking wgovi, we're going to see, Yeah, I hope we have a focus idea.
[15:23] One of our high conviction ideas on this where the prescription survey we do with doctors, not the patients.
[15:23] Doctors were leaning quite favor of the competing pill from lily we think.
[15:24] Tim, thank you very much, Tim Craighead from Bloomberg Inligence, thank you very much for joining us but just a quick word on what we're seeing.😊
[15:24] oil price we'll put up the session chart and you can see where this has been moving. We are still substantially weaker on the oil price, but it has ticked up just in the last sort a half hour.
[15:24] so and we've got some interesting lines out of Iran saying, for example, we currently have no negotiations with the US.
[15:24] The foreignign ministry spokesman from Iran speaking is interesting though, Li, isn't it, because we've this in contrast perhaps to President Trump who said.
[15:24] Will start today, but we've seen it in the past where people have different interpretations of what talks mean, and sometimes people are talking about the U and Iran getting up.
[15:24] Other times they're talking about messages being exchanged via intermediaries. so difficult to say whether everyone's talking about exactly the same.
[15:24] But interesting to see the oil price on the move as a result and I mean, it's similar to when you talk about the Iranman negotiations, you know, saying.
[15:24] They don't include whether or not the street will be open or closed, but President Trump saying that this has to be part of any deal that happens, but yes.
[15:25] In this latest statement, U. Iran issues should be addressed in a later stage, so we'll continue to watch the oil price $83 a barrel is where we are.
[15:25] Right now and indeed we will be discussing all of the geopolitical impact on the oil market next with Carol Nalay, she is the founder in C.😊
[15:25] 🎼Of Crystal Energy we' also be discussing that OPEC+ meeting over the weekend and the decision to hike, even if it is only symbol.😊
[15:25] 🎼So that conversation coming up next, this is Bomberg.😊
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