彭博直播转述卡特彼勒二季度业绩大超预期及数据中心需求拉动订单增长

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-04 19:00–19:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 185 段
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--- 转录正文 ---
[19:00] People are looking for any kind of guide as to potentially a deal there and a stands a counterfellar in the pre market high by 8% year to before today.
[19:00] 🎼By close to 45%, these numbers to your point, Bramo, talk about blow and out of the water817 for adjusted Eps for the second quarter of the estimates.
[19:00] 🎼The backlog rising aggressively, great news for them, the outlook a whole lot better full year2026.
[19:00] With sales in the mid to high teens versus low double digits earlier, so there are a couple of questions here, and this really underscores the question around.
[19:00] The very strong manufacturing print that we got yesterday is this an AI trade, how much of this is a data center trade and how much is is a broad based.
[19:00] Buildup of the industrial base in the unit states their earnings call might be the greatest hell on that right now than any other company given that they are on the forfront.
[19:00] 🎼So Pananter fantastic Catpillar great you'll hear from SpaceX and AMD a little bit later on today Check out McDonald's.
[19:00] 🎼This morning and look at these numbers and I think you're going to start to engage in the obvious debate narrative throughout this morning, posting slowing growth rates.
[19:01] 🎼Second consecutive quarter over at McDonald's.
[19:01] They're talking about a bit of pushback by consumers, it says we've already seen them flagged.
[19:01] Potential for lower income consumers to be chooseier choice with respect to what they.
[19:01] At the same time, they talk about how they're growing national markets, it was kind of a bright spot.
[19:01] you have to wonder k shaped fast food, restaurant type of performance.
[19:01] Some what we saw from some of the other fast food retailers, maybe it's more of McDonald.
[19:01] 🎼this captures the disparity beneath the surface to your point bond.
[19:02] 🎼Still resilient and we can basically take these yields to standpoint points.
[19:02] Do you see that as a problem or a reflection of a stronger outlook for this economy Well on one hand, some people will say that this does reflect.
[19:02] That the economy is growing at a rapid rate and we are seeing incredible earnings growth and incredible consumer spending power, on the other hand, the fact that the U.S.
[19:02] Intervene in the Japanese yen potentially as a way to cap some of the increase that we've seen at the long right of the yield curve sort of presents.
[19:02] The question about whether this is also a problem, we do get some refunding announcements for the U treasury in terms of how much debt.
[19:02] They're going to have to sell and that's going to be an issue as you see as some of these levels rise high it's going to make it very, very difficult to term out that debt.
[19:02] 🎼This Treasury secretary criticised the previous Treasury secretary for the way she'd handled the average maturity coming out of the Treasury.
[19:02] 🎼I don't see it changing anytime soon based on the fact that we've got 520 on 30s and pushing 5% on tents if you believe there are two camps coming out of.
[19:03] Keen wsh Federal reserve press conference, some people say he didn't give us any sense of exactly how he was going to get to 2% so we don't believe you and that's the reason why.
[19:03] I see the bond market selling off, other people are saying what kevin wsh is doing is allowing the market to do the work for him the long end of the yield curve if you believe.
[19:03] is the case then it is healthy and it is fine and it can keep going if the treasury wants to term out the debt, however, it makes it impossible.
[19:03] 🎼yield curve it pits the F against the treasury at a pretty awkward moment yield this morning by two basis points up this catch.
[19:03] 🎼David Laberitz of JP Morgan with earnings fueling Wall Street record run, Stephen Shoka the Sha group with President Trump calling out oil giants for making.
[19:03] Much money and Paul gardening of Macquarie remaining bullish on Spacex ahead of its first ever earnings report we begin this with stocks trading near all time high.😊
[19:03] As tech concerns continue to ease, David Levititz of JP Morgangan asset management, writing hyperscalear earnings results to reinforce our positive outlook for corporate.
[19:04] Will maintain a pro risk view in portfolios David join us now for more we those earnings.
[19:04] Thecalrs have been off to the races I'm talking about gains of 10 to 25% over the last three or four days for a handful of some of the biggest companies.
[19:04] On the planet, what was in the data, the earnings that has started this move. Well, so I think what's really interesting is we've seen this.
[19:04] Over the past couple of quarters where coming into the earnings announcements, you see the skepticism begin to rise, you know maybe profit growth won't be as good as it has been.
[19:04] Margins will finally start to come back in and then they are you know, the numbers are good, they may or they may, these are just unequivocally good.
[19:04] AI trade broaden out, you're seeing a show up.
[19:04] And that's what's giving this story legs, right that's what's making it a more durrbbyness.
[19:04] end a bunch of money and then move on to the next project this is really something that's trans growth trajectory of the U. economy much.
[19:05] Of the year it was hypersscales or chips, one or the other, not both, it was chips or software, one or the other, not both. Is that still the story?
[19:05] Or things changed, so I think things are changing and I think last time I was on with you guys, we were talking a little bit about how markets are becoming increasingly discerning.
[19:05] Betweenween the different players and so what I think you're going to see going forward is within software, who are the winners and who are the losers, within chips, who are the winners?
[19:05] Who are the losersYou, to an extent, saw it in the hyperscalers throughout this earnings season, who are the winners and who are the losers, What is the market looking for they're looking for.
[19:05] ROI, they're looking for that inclination that there is going to be a profit benefit down the road, and I think that you're starting to see that come through in a more durable way.
[19:05] How much you' seeing discernment and how much you' seeing relief that maybe some of the leverage has been pushed out of the system, either with situational awareness or with the situation?
[19:05] Over in Korea. So it's funny, I remember being an analyst and like if the market moved 2% in one day, it was a really, really big deal and now we have these2% moves.
[19:06] And people kind of like shrug their shoulders and 20% and the we'll do it again tomorrow, I mean, look clearly there was a technical element of what was going.
[19:06] On here in terms of the selling, in terms of the leverage in some of these ETF products, but that's the market that we're in today and I think kind of think,
[19:06] About the volatility angle and going back to some of the comments that you guys were making about kevin wsh and how the market's digesting everything there, yes.
[19:06] On the one hand, you could say the market is doing the work for him my question is how long are markets going to be content doing the work for the chair?
[19:06] Of the Federal reserve I think at some point you get market exhaustion and that's when they want a little bit of guidance as to what to expect and so you know the fed's walking a very.
[19:06] L here and i think that the earnings are really what's bailing them out at the end of the day the fundamental story is just very good What's notable to me is that when we talk to people about at what point.
[19:06] long end of the yield curve will constrain some of the ambitions within the S&P 500, they say we're not there yet, but it's because earnings are so strong.
[19:06] Because we can look past this, When does that change, So I think that you're starting to see debt markets begin to push back.
[19:07] On a lot of this financing and it's not problematic when you go from a negative leverage ratio to a leverage ratio of one, I mean, you're still going to be able to bring paper to market.
[19:07] fairly attractive spreads, but we have seen spreads for the hyperscales begin to move wider, you look at high yield, the picks and shovels trade, some of those issues.
[19:07] you getting a little bit more wobbly one time subscribed instead of multiple times oversscribed, and so that's what I think you want to watch there is when do these AI.
[19:07] Players recognize that they can't just do it with debt, they can't just do it with equity, they can't just do it with cash flow they need to figure out a mix of all three because.
[19:07] If this is really going to extend over the next couple of years, you can't be a one trick pony when it comes to financing this investment a week close to existinging what's available.
[19:07] Them to issue debt, to issue equity, I think that there's more room to run. I think you look at some of the hyperscalers this year. And part of what happened was.
[19:07] Had so much debt coming to market in such a short period of time and not really giving investors the heads up that it was coming.
[19:08] A little bit more of a steady drip instead of a fire hose, I think that that will help markets digest.
[19:08] Spread in the IG space, in the high yield space to take down this paper tells you far you back in the day you removed.
[19:08] And spread are still super tight, but if you started to see them widen out, you'd worry about equities. Is it the same story. So I think what's interesting to me is,
[19:08] That up until this point, right, you didn't have a huge hyperscale.
[19:08] Presence in the IG space you didn't you had a bunch of software sitting in private credit and direct lending, but know hey.
[19:08] Pay attention to it four times a year now you're seeing that the tech trade in.
[19:08] The debt and the equity side of the equation, so I think that there's more signal coming from what's happening with spreads than there was previously but.
[19:08] I mean, they're still pretty tight by historic standards and you look at what's going on in high yield 270 over.
[19:09] I mean, I struggle to get overly concerned about the trajectory of the economy when that's what we're seeing from a financing cost perspective does 6040 have any relevance?
[19:09] in the backdrop that you're justing So I think it does. and I think one of the misconceptions that investors have,
[19:09] When you say 6040, you mean a public 6040 right private equity and public equity are still equity at the end of the day, private credit in public.
[19:09] Creditorors still credit at the end of the.
[19:09] surface what does your credit allocation look like, what does your equity out investors credit investors were saying there was more of an opportunity in equities than there was.
[19:09] In credit, just simply because the upside looked so much better and the potential downside was potentially worse for bond investors.
[19:09] That pendulum shifted as yields have gone materially higher so I think that it has become more balanced I'm hesitant to say that it's completely shifted because the earnings story.
[19:10] Still is so strong, and so if you believe in the idea that over time, stock prices will follow profits and profit growth is still going to be there, then maybe there's more.
[19:10] Juice to get squeezed out of that orange, but you know, seven and a quarter, seven and a half on high yield, which we know is a higher quality asset than it once was with a fairly.
[19:10] Low duration to me feels pretty interesting in an economy, in an economic environment where growth is clearly above trend if think about the skewed to.
[19:10] Risk free rates, it's very much to the upside, so if I can pick up some spread on top of that and maintain a below benchmark duration that's going.
[19:10] interesting from an overall portfolio you've indicated also maybe the biggest concerns this time around an Ig and not in high yield got a concern.
[19:10] We've got a much more concentrated AI concern. So at a certain point, tight spreads, more duration, more AI exposure that potentially is.
[19:10] With disruption, suddenly starting to look at IG that has potentially more risk than a lower duration high yield portfolio.
[19:10] upside down risk David to. you David Leitz there of JP Morgangan asset management features the.
[19:11] about part very close to all time highs with an update on news worldwide your Bberg.
[19:11] McDonald's shares rising in the pre markets, the fast food giant posting sales growth that slowed for the second straight quarter as consumers face elevated prices.
[19:11] Same store sales in US locations did rise slightly underestimate estimates McDonald seeing better growth though in international markets.
[19:11] US weapons stockpile is nearly depleted Reuters reporting the army has used virtually all of its long.
[19:11] Pcision missiles in its five month war with Iran, the report raising questions about the U.'s ability to deter its adversaries, including Russia.
[19:11] And China incoming Apple CEO John Turns is putting together his leadership team.
[19:11] Telling us here at Bberg, Turnnis is bringing back retired vice president of hardware engineering Laro.
[19:12] Tur his takes over as Apple's CEO ti Cook next month that's your.
[19:12] 🎼John Avoni, thank you, appreciate it offering from for this hour and next on the program pumping the brakes on Big oil.
[19:12] They're making too much money, Chevron too much money ex time when you look at one company where they meet.
[19:12] 2 times what they made the year before to the public next we catch up with step sha of the short group live from yo.
[19:12] City this morning, good morning.
[19:13] When news breaks in comes the car into Downing street Bberg has you coveredham arriving all the.
[19:13] 🎼prime at first on Bloomberg the world.
[19:14] 🎼Of decentralized why is it that Nfts have not recovered in the same way that say bit high Bloomberg is covering all things cryp.
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[19:14] 🎼Billion dollars of bit and the technology need to build a digital fortn that gives people financial freedom. And that's a wonderful thing. that's extraordinary. We ride the way.😊
[19:14] 🎼Thatlo crypto Tuesdays only on Bloberg We to Bloberg this weekm.😊
[19:14] And I'm christina raffiti we're tracking breaking news today from wall street to washington let's start overee bloom this weekend bringing a little bloomberg.
[19:14] 🎼In your weekend routine what listen stream.
[19:14] 🎼Three days of gains on the S&P, another one on the cards were up by two tenth0s of1% so far this morning on the S&P.
[19:14] Im Asdaq up by 0.9 this morning, rather like the year so far, a tale of two economies, let's talk about the first one, the one that's doing really well, caterpillar.
[19:15] 🎼In the premarket CA absolutely flying so far year today, up 9% in premarket trading, the earnings phenomenal this morning.
[19:15] 🎼Ajusted EPS 817, the estimate 617 and the outlook better than expected that's one economy here's a difference.
[19:15] 🎼McDonald's this morning, sales growth slowing for a second consecutive quarter. They have some very different customers with.
[19:15] Very different wallets and some very, very different price tolerance typically MccDonald's caters to the low to middle income consumer in the United.
[19:15] States in particular, internationally, the footprint is slightly different, but what you saw was a decline in visits, but ticket prices going up.
[19:15] We spending a bit more but the number of visits they were making to of mDonald's went down A real question here about how they both.
[19:15] Toggle between their base customer, which is someone who is cost conscious with some of these meals that are valued.
[19:16] And how they also attract the higher income customer that has the ability to spend, and it highlights this divergence under the surface that has been.
[19:16] Pist and a feature of the entire cycle the cross asset moves speak to it too just look at rates to look at energys 10 and 30 yield.
[19:16] 🎼At or near the highs of the year so far tends around 470 turned to crude crude still elevated very, very volatile.
[19:16] 🎼The presidents sensitive about the price of energy, the price of gasoline going into the midterms B around 84 this morning.
[19:16] 🎼getting absolutely The everyday customer is very sensitive to what's happening in energy with interest rates you part of the AIe.
[19:16] 🎼Stem don't think this move in race, this move in energy has hit you at all in any way, shape or form at the moment.
[19:16] McDonald's customer, they're getting hit on all sides, they're getting hit because their wages aren't keeping pace with inflation, they're dealing with higher bills when they fill up their car.
[19:16] And if they want to borrow money, if they want to take out a loan, if they want to use their credit cards, if they want to borrow by a car on debt, they're facing higher bills.
[19:17] So at what point which is the worst of the es and this is what the Fed is toggling with, is it worse to have inflation at this level because people hate inflation?
[19:17] Or is it worse to have rates at a putitive level at the front under of the yield curve I mean this is an incredibly difficult dance and you can see a lot of.
[19:17] 🎼iv FederalYou can make the case with ease that the AI boom, the race for capital that underpins it is contributing to higher rates.
[19:17] 🎼To higher energy prices as well, which just puts the squeeze on even more Yeah and at this point, that's one of the reasons why it's become such.
[19:17] Political issue because of some of the pushback to the AI build out that people are not yet seeing in their lives at the same time, what you are seeing from companies like MccDonald's.
[19:17] Is increased use of automation and ai and discussion of how they're going to become more efficient so they can potentially increase margins without increasing prices.
[19:17] some of the push pull that you're seeing under the surface let's talk about energy and a savannas this morning pumping the brakes on big oil.
[19:18] too much money based on a shortage, they're making too much money, I don't like Chevron too much money, XR Mo, too much, too much.
[19:18] When you look at one company where they made 12 times what they made the year before, they really give some of that back to the public and they been.
[19:18] so here's the latest this morning, the president slaming Exxon and Cheevron as high prices the war.
[19:18] In around way on consumers and fuel profits for the oil giants, the company's ranking going to combined 29 billion in the second quarter more than triple.😊
[19:18] Same time last year, Stephen Sho of the Sha Group joined us now for more Stephen, let's talk about where the profits are coming from, have the monies.😊
[19:18] What ExxonWhat happened to Chefron the sub the president so muchOh well it's understandable here.
[19:18] I mean, we finally found an issue that Trump and a democratic socialist can agree upon, he's chastising an industry that has made money in.
[19:18] ter on a war that Hugh started and has no apparent plan on ending, and now he's going full Bernie Sanders on the march.
[19:19] And telling us now Exxon has to turn that money over, Shevron has to turn that money over, he said it himself, they're making money from a.
[19:19] Stage and making money relative to a year ago. But it's a shortage that he created and he has, again, no plan is from the.
[19:19] It's perspective of alleviating, so yes, companies are going to make money when you start and you artificially inflate.
[19:19] The price due to your own actions, so he is flailing right now reaching out and slamming everyone because it's.
[19:19] going the way he had expected clearly when this all started going on six months ago clearly refin a feature of.
[19:19] What's happening here, What kind of utilization rates are you seeing across the industry, Where is the capacity to bring more refining online and to.
[19:19] How get the gasoline price lower, not just stateside but around the world No virtually no, I mean because we were looking at a market where.
[19:20] Cruudeel is going up and down every time the president changes his rhetoric last Thursday he went full Dr. strangerange love, I'm going to blow Iran up.
[19:20] To 24 hours later, I'm John Lennon, let's give a piece a chance and oil prices are reacting to everything the president says.
[19:20] is the reality, Refining margins, the product markets. The market is telling us through the forward curve both in the diesel.
[19:20] In the gasoline market that we are short of product and hence now the margins, the difference between diesel and gasoline and crude are.
[19:20] Massive therefore, the refiners are doing everything they possibly can to capture those margins.
[19:20] Therefore they are running in the Midwest, they are running at virtually 100% of capacity in the refinery epicenter in the Gulf Coast.
[19:20] At 97% of capacity, so the refining industry has already pushed to its max at this point, so there's a very.
[19:20] Little more margin that the industry can do to get more gasoline to the market, they just can't wave a w and throw some pixie dust on the map.
[19:21] Market and all of a sudden bring retail prices lower no retail prices are higher because there is a shortage of product.
[19:21] The ability refiners to bring more product to the market is already stretched to the max, can the president do anything along the.
[19:21] Of what he's suggesting, I mean, if you channel Mike Worth and you try to get to his head, is he just sort of rolling his eyes and saying, what a bunch of Ho.
[19:21] And it's never going to come to pass No absolutely everyone I mean, I don't know Mike worth personally haven't spoke to, but everyone I do speak in in yes.
[19:21] They are rolling their eyes at a situation where you go on and you can take such a populous view that stems from a war.
[19:21] That you created when the industry is responding the way you would expect the responding, the old adage is that high prices are the cure for high prices.
[19:21] We have those high prices and why are they a cure because you're going to bring product to the market Britain to exploit those high prices.
[19:22] But we're already there, what we can address now is the shortage of product because once again, there's very little that the industry.
[19:22] The industry is doing essentially everything it can, it's responding to high prices, what it cannot do is respond to the uncertainty.
[19:22] Look, I could price a $95 war, I could price a $75 piece, what I cannot do and what the market cannot do is price it.
[19:22] $95 war and the $75 piece when it alternates it ping ps within every single news cycle, so there was a pricey.
[19:22] Be paid for that uncertainty and the market is paying that price right now Do you like the oil majors as a group in terms of the share price given?
[19:22] The volatility that we've seen in oil prices, the shortages that are ongoing and the fact that high prices haven't gotten high enough to spur demand destruction in.
[19:22] at least not in the United States, absolutely and that's the fear that we're having because there's two ways to impact less.
[19:22] demand of any commodity, bring more supply to the market or kill demand. Well, our ability to supply the market, as we've said is.
[19:23] read pushed to the margin. So therefore, the only other issue to bring prices down is demand destruction. And, of course, that's economic.
[19:23] and that is the fear in the market as the longer we go and as we have the uncertainty of how long this war, how long this.
[19:23] to the flow of oil around the world through the Strai of her moves or through the Bob LMD into Red Sea, how long does that remain disturbed?
[19:23] Right now we don't have an answer to that, therefore we have extreme uncertainty, volatility in the market, and when the market' is uncertain.
[19:23] market is volatile, prices are going to be high, you're going to have to pay for that uncertainty Stephen is's going to say you appreciate the run.
[19:23] Stephen Sho there of the short Group on the latest crew two Fridays ago, triple digits on Brent this morning, 83.😊
[19:23] We've seen a huge decline even with ongoing rhetoric and a conflict that is still on the precipice of potential escalation, of course.
[19:24] We did get reports earlier this morning, both about the U.S. stockpiles, but also about Qatar saying that there might be a framework for some sort of peace to ocean.
[19:24] Don't get people excited Brama and you've got to take it all the way I mean that's reason why you've seen some of the lot you know, whatever so.😊
[19:24] 🎼Whatever is the right word up next Paul Goldenham Macquarie remaining bullish on SpaceX ahead of its first ever earnings report.😊
[19:24] New York City, you're watching Bomberg TV.
[19:26] 🎼Yeah.
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