彭博直播复盘Palantir和卡特彼勒财报后上涨及AI相关市场叙事

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-04 22:00–22:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 148 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

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[22:00] able,That's a very interesting question by a lot of indicators, the consumer, the average consumer.
[22:00] Lower end consumer, they are under stress. There is no doubt about that, but there is a strange disconnect there where most of the consumption in the United States.
[22:00] Is driven by the top 10%. And actually, it's not even the top 10%. It's really the higher end. the top 5 and the two percentage points.
[22:00] sense there is a disconnect where most of the consumption is coming from wealth and the higher end consumer. So the stress.
[22:00] You see and in the lower end consumer tends to not get reflected in the headline GDP numbers and the headline.😊
[22:00] Eity return number, so there is that little bit of disconnecting inherently how the U economy has transformed over time Ron, always such a pleasure to have you.
[22:00] Thank you so much for joining and Johnny Day of Foitzy Russell and a check on your equity market that is trading at all time highs for the S&P 500.
[22:00] At 7668 just want to note that the nasdaq still has a ways to go before it gets there it needs to trade above 30,000 in order to be an.
[22:01] Time high, again, the dow was already there yesterday if you follow the Dow10 year yields, those are coming in again, and drawing was just talking about.
[22:01] phenomenon where we're seeing these companies that were already so linked to what yields were doing because they longer duration aka tech now.
[22:01] Com even more so, so yields come down, you see equities rally and that is because of brrenent crude brrent crude back below $80 a barrel for the first time.
[22:01] Mid july that's trading at 7982 let's look at some of the movers on our radar this morning with that is nora good morning nora good.
[22:01] Three stocks of the move for you palantte here, let's kick things off there up 23% on track for its best day in a year and a half.
[22:01] When you've raised both its revenue and its profit outlooks, the CEOo al carp calling demand for the company's aI software quoteotherworldly.
[22:01] safefe to say investors like that now over to heavy machinery or maybe shall we call it AI caterpillar crushing second quarter expectations.
[22:02] AndBeating on both profit and revenue, you are seeing shares up about 6%, turns out that the company is also benefiting from the AI boom too.
[22:02] Strong demand for the power equipment, helping run data centers. we are seeing shares, of course, to the upside and finally mdonald's post.
[22:02] the second quarter in a row the company says customers are still watching their pockets so it's leadinging into value meals to keep customers.
[22:02] Think an egg Mc muffin, coffee, a hash brown, guys be honest, you're definitely craving a hash brown right now, I'm sure we are seeing shares up about 1.
[22:02] 4our% right now though those are your more movers, Sandra, thank you very much always making us hungry with these normal li we'll catch up with the in about.
[22:02] 20 minutes time coming up first Goldman sachs chief credit str amanda linenon just joins the show to discuss Ai risk and debt markets that's coming up next.
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[22:05] Let's get you some high interest stories a look at what's headlines around.
[22:05] 🎼In the most red story on the terminal today or one of the most, the rats may finally be on the run. horrible video. I'm so sorry.
[22:05] Look at this new york city says that its war on rats is showing results report sightings are down 22% through july actually it's kind of cute i take that back.
[22:06] Fewest since the pandemic officials credit sealed trash containers that keep rodents from feeding however some neighborhoods are still seeing spikes.
[22:06] Experts say that more data is needed away from the world of rats into banking, wells Fargo is launching tokenized deposits for commercial clients.
[22:06] Blockcha to enable real time cross border payments, the program starts with U dollar and british pound transactions and willll expand next year.
[22:06] The bank says that clients won't need to change how they bank while gaining faster 24/7 payment capabilities and jp morgan is stepping up.
[22:06] AI push on wall street, the bank hired an nyu ai professor to join its new quantitative finance group where the focus is using machine.
[22:06] learning to improve electronic trading from generating trading signals to executing trades elsewhere loan investors are students.
[22:06] Starting to push back as aI related debt continues to grow, pimco president christian Str wade here on bloomberg open interest yesterday.
[22:06] The beauty of AI is that it's disrupting technology and it's generating a lot of excitement through that disruption, of course.
[22:07] The downside risk is that it's disrupting through its technology and so you could see a lot of disruption risk down the road.
[22:07] You don't want to have too much risk in any one project or in the whole conflict, so that's something that we're very much keeping an eye on it's a great opportunity.
[22:07] But you want to be moderate and measured in how you deploy into itLet's continue the conversation usda.
[22:07] ss chief credit strategist, it feels like everywhere you look, there is this conversation concern about concentration risk happening, whether it's in private.
[22:07] Markets or public, which pinmco of course, looks at both of them, whether it be equity markets, and because of that, you are now starting to see some of the spreads widen whether.
[22:07] Loans, whether it be cdS on some of these ai related companies is there real pushback happening in these markets and if so, is that push?
[22:07] Back warranted well good morning thank you for having me i would say yes, the concentration theme has come up in a few different facets in the credit market one.
[22:08] As AI related issuance broadly has accelerated the credit market, investors are becoming more mindful about the various exposures they have, not just in their credit portfolio.
[22:08] But also in equities and because credit investors don't share in the upside of our equity peers, we tend to pay more attention to the concentration risk.
[22:08] I think some of the pushback that you're seeing in other markets, I would separate that from the AI narrative and a lot of that is just the software narrative.
[22:08] Some of these software refinancings are coming through the market, and keep in mind many of these transactions were kind of struck in the 2021 era.
[22:08] Of very elevated valuations and very low rates and so some of these capital structures just need to be right sized, we tend to not pay a ton of.
[22:08] Attention to maturity walls across the credit market, but here in loans and in private credit, the 2028 maturity walls do matter.
[22:08] Expect to see more differentiation from the investor base as these different business models flow through, and it will really be up to investors to determine how much of the.
[22:08] I right sizing a capital structure and how much of it is actually parsing through potential business disruption risk from AI it pushing.
[22:09] There's one way or another into different kinds of capital structures as they try to figure out which is going to be the safest and yet bring you the return.
[22:09] ssers that are looking for certainty of financing, customization, kind of a bespoke solution, the private markets are worthy.
[22:09] Gravitate more and I would say there's a lot of demand from investors in the private markets by pre estimates, there's four and a half trillion of dry powder.
[22:09] Globally across all those strategies, So that's pretty meaningful. I think for solutions that fit more cleanly into a syndicated transaction right now.
[22:09] Because there're still a relatively low cost of capital. and so that's a good solution. I think what is most striking from our perspective is this kind of interplay across asset.
[22:09] That we'ved because our view is that debt financing will play a larger role in this AI build out so that open and.
[22:09] Receptivity, openness and receptivity of the credit markets has become more relevant for equity investors and our high level view is that we're not concerned.
[22:10] About access to capital, but we just don't expect, for example, the U. iG bond market to do all the heavy lifting of the financing and that it will be a more new.
[22:10] across Well, you've talked about this that we have an overlap in borrowers in both syndicated credit and.
[22:10] D lending, you're seeing them use both channels, one of the things you also point out with that that especially in direct lending, I'm assuming this is what you're referring to.
[22:10] The standard measures of credit risk have kind of changed, or what are the more important metrics to be looking at in this environment?
[22:10] So a lot of investors will look at default activity and kind of missing the nuances under the surface that in private credit, we can have covenant defaults.
[22:10] That aren't necessarily the case in the syndicated market really the first default is a payment default those have very different outcomes, so for that reason we focus.
[22:10] More on realized losses in private credit and then in terms of signpost to watch, we focus on things like non arual rates and payment and kind, so basically.
[22:10] Paying your debt with additional principal as opposed to cash interest, the high level view is that through the first quarter, so that's the most recent data that we have.
[22:11] We're seeing a modest uptick in non acral rates and it's very consistent with the view that this is a market of dispersion, but not widespread market disruption.
[22:11] That will be key to watch, however just like liquid credit, private credit is very growth sensitive, so right now the growth backdrop is arguably.
[22:11] Enough for credit that will be key and then beyond that kind of this left tail that we're watching, both in liquid and private credit of companies that.
[22:11] Aren't yet kind of growing into their capital structures even a couple years after the pandemic now, that will be, I think, where we would be most focused.
[22:11] And potential signs of stress how sanguine are investors about interest rates, which is a nice way of saying does the F matter at this point it does?
[22:11] It absolutely matters, I would say for credit, it's a bit of an inverse reaction in that higher yields actually deploy a lot of our investor base into.
[22:11] MarketBecause they're incentivized to capture these all in yields, I would say, though, the speed and the drivers of the rate moves are really what matter to our market.
[22:12] If rates are elevated because growth is holding in well, and maybe there's optimism around productivity around AI that.
[22:12] Different backdrop than if rates are rising because inflation expectations are becoming unanchored, which is not the view by many market participants.
[22:12] Speak to so i think for now it's been a backdrop that's very manageable what our equity colleagues have also noted alongside us however, is that the speed of that rate.
[22:12] Backrup really matters and so if rates are selling off in a disorderly way, that confidence of that yield based investor really diminishes to deploy an our.
[22:12] And so that tailwind doesn't work as well. if we don't get cuts, though, and maybe we even get hikes, how much of an issue is that for the direct lending universe when.
[22:12] F this backlog of private equity action, part of it, maybe some can kicking, and I guess across the whole industry much?
[22:12] Has there just been can kicking, waiting for a more rate friendly environment so a hike, while not the base case of our economists would certainly be an unwelcome.
[22:12] It meant for floating rate borrowers that are already managing through higher cost inputs from higher commodities, the software potential overhang that we mentioned earlier.
[22:13] So wouldn't be a welcome development in terms of how have the markets kind of managed through this environment we've seen a lot of amed.
[22:13] Aivity, even in commercial real estate, parts of the credit market, I think the distinction as this moves forward is, are you a good business model?
[22:13] Bridging to the other side of a potentially temporarily stretched balance sheet, or are you just a business model that will not grow into your capital structure.
[22:13] So I would say again, going back to this point on dispersion but not widespread disruption, it hasn't been a material headwind to the market.
[22:13] Nor do we expect it to be, but I do think for these companies that we're kind of lagging in an environment of above trend growth and low rates.
[22:13] Just another headwind that they need to contend with is there a timeframe for when you've got to write those people off and?
[22:13] I always say that bad loans are made at good times is there something to worry about here right so the 2028 maturity walls are very key here especially.
[22:14] Or the leverage loan and private credit market because they do have some heavy software concentration on the bright side, we've actually seen some of these amended extend activity.
[22:14] Go fairly well in that sector, but I do think as we get closer to that maturity wall, there will need to be some more nuanced conversations around.
[22:14] Is the viability of the business model and can it really grow into its capital structure, but for now, I would say the market is still taking its time and evaluating.
[22:14] Those stories right Amanda, so great to have you on thank you for joining us Amanda lineham of Goldman Sachs ahead we look forward to.
[22:14] SpX earnings joining us will be Phantom space CEO jim cantrell, one of the early employees at SpaceX this is boomberg open interest.
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[22:16] Can this really continue at this rate what we see in data as a consumer so spending?
[22:16] We're spend in America, that means economy is okay, and that probably means the rest of the markets and the construct and the final demand is there what are the potential?
[22:16] R they could potentially sty me some of the pipeline people are borrowring because they see opportunity, what it's equipment buying, what it's hiring, what it's building a plant, whether it's.
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[22:17] Like no one else, ETFIQ Mondays on bloomberg.
[22:17] Just about under an hour into your trading day and we're still at all time highs if we hold at this level will' close.
[22:17] Well above them, about half of a percent over the all time high we hit in June 2nd, Nasdaq isn't there, but it is rallying outperforming.
[22:17] 2% the russell 2000 a good run to the dow also at a record all of that is really being helped not just by earnings but against that in the moment.
[22:17] What's happening in the macro landscape, brrenent crude falling is optimism that aman and Qatar have reached something of a temporary peace agreement.
[22:17] That will allow the st to be reopened so brent crew below $80 a barrel for the first time since mid july10 year yields down four basis points.
[22:18] So the rest of this board, a lot of it is really good earnings, good earnings from palantir, of 25% solid earnings from caterpillar.
[22:18] Donald's actually not very strong earnings, but those kind of flipped theyre getting a new head of the U. and the U. is where the weak spot was Kimberly clerk up%.
[22:18] But they trimmed their annual growth forecast SpaceX we're awaiting that we're going to get earnings after the bill and coming up we're going to talk more about it.
[22:18] Fantom space CEO jim krell on what the overall space universe is looking at as we get this report again' going.
[22:18] Lup period which means more selling a spacex share shortly after this earnings result, so a lot to watch out for we'll cover all of that for you.
[22:18] The other side of this break, you're watching Bloomberg Open interest.
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[22:20] We've been hearing that there is going to be an activist at some point the question was who there is a convergence of technology in national security is a big country.
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