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🎙 直播转录Bloomberg TV+Codex · 实盘可交易 · 做空市场:A股▼ 亏 -3.27% · 已结算 · 2 腿均把握 5/10标签:live_transcript
北京时间·🕒 发布 01:00:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 01:00:01·⚡ 决策 08-05 01:14:37 +14m36s·83.6 天前

路透称美国拟禁止进口新的中国数据中心组件,利好美国数据中心网络链、利空中国光模块链

彭博直播转述路透称特朗普政府正起草禁止进口新的中国数据中心组件,若覆盖光收发器/光模块,将直接压制中国AI数据中心组件厂商进入美国客户供应链的预期。

📄 原文Bloomberg TV+↗ 原文
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】 来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+ 时段:2026-08-05 00:30–01:00(Asia/Shang…
ENTER▼ 做空中际旭创300308.SZ🇨🇳小仓
▼ 亏 -2.83%入场 08-05 当日开盘 @878.65 → 离场 08-06 开盘 @899.64
800.001,0001,200878.65做空 08-05离场 08-0607-1409-16
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(做空:价格在入场线下方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑美拟禁中资数据中心组件,空A股光模块龙头
怎么做空 开盘做空 不低于昨收 -5%(低于下限不成交)
怎么平空 止盈 -6%(半仓)/-12%(清仓) · 止损 +6% · 时间止损 3日
ENTER▼ 做空新易盛300502.SZ🇨🇳试探仓
▼ 亏 -3.70%入场 08-05 当日开盘 @400.00 → 离场 08-06 开盘 @413.00
500.00400.00做空 08-05离场 08-0607-1409-16
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(做空:价格在入场线下方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑美拟禁中资数据中心组件,空A股光模块链
怎么做空 开盘做空 不低于昨收 -5%(低于下限不成交)
怎么平空 止盈 -5%(半仓)/-10%(清仓) · 止损 +6% · 时间止损 3日
不做 Marvell Technology(MRVL.US)
美股正向腿在彭博播报时已被点名上涨,且当前卡片核心edge在A股下一交易日负面消化,当前不追多。
不做 Coherent(COHR.US)
美国替代受益逻辑成立但属于路透报道后的盘中扩散交易,已明显反应,当前不追。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

分时走势

做空 300308.SZ 中际旭创

建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图

做空 300502.SZ 新易盛

建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图

成交明细 · 纸面

做空 300308.SZ 中际旭创

收益状态-2.83% 已平仓
进场成交2026-08-05 · 当日开盘 · @878.649
离场成交2026-08-06 · 开盘 · @899.637
毛收益-2.39%
成本+0.45%
净收益-2.83%
计入收益-2.83%
计入同日重复,不计入曲线
建仓日2026-08-05 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟

做空 300502.SZ 新易盛

收益状态-3.70% 已平仓
进场成交2026-08-05 · 当日开盘 · @400
离场成交2026-08-06 · 开盘 · @413
毛收益-3.25%
成本+0.45%
净收益-3.70%
计入收益-3.70%
计入同日重复,不计入曲线
建仓日2026-08-05 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟

收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 14:53

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-04 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-08-04首发Reuters非一手
    彭博直播明确称该消息来自路透,但本轮未命中可公开打开的路透原文链接,首发具体分钟无法确认。
  2. 2026-08-04 17:00 UTC财经媒体扩散Bloomberg TV+非一手原文 ↗
    彭博午间播报称美国拟禁进口新的中国数据中心组件,并指出该消息正推升数据中心网络相关公司。
    市场反应:播报中点名Marvell Technology上涨,说明美股正向腿已在盘中即时重定价。

关键理由

  • 彭博直播转述路透称特朗普政府正起草禁止进口新的中国数据中心组件,若覆盖光收发器/光模块,将直接压制中国AI数据中心组件厂商进入美国客户供应链的预期。
  • 中际旭创(300308.SZ)与新易盛(300502.SZ)是A股光模块核心标的,事件发生在A股收盘后,下一交易日才会首次消化该政策负面。
  • 量级上,中际旭创招股材料显示2025年美国收入占比57.3%、2026年一季度61.7%;若美国进口禁令覆盖其核心光模块,风险传导足够大,但草案未落地且范围未定,只适合小仓/试探空头。

主要风险

  • 路透原文未能在本轮公开搜索中确认到完整链接,且政策仍处起草阶段,官方口径或范围收窄会削弱空头逻辑。
  • A股光模块龙头8月4日已大涨,中际旭创收涨13.24%、新易盛收涨13.68%,若市场把该消息解读为国产替代或主题炒作,空头可能先承受挤压。

反向证据

  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 weakens
    内部KB服务不可用,未能交叉验证禁令是否明确覆盖中际旭创/新易盛具体产品。
    检索:Reuters FCC ban Chinese optical transceivers Zhongji Innolight Marvell Coherent Lumentum
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 query_modeling_kb · 影响 weakens
    定量KB不可用,无法在本轮给出美国客户收入占比和潜在订单损失区间;后续Web材料补充显示中际旭创美国收入占比超过半数。
    检索:中际旭创 美国收入占比 AI光模块 全球份额 2026 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 price_snapshot · 日期 2026-08-04 · 影响 weakens
    A股光模块链在消息前一个交易日已大涨,中际旭创+13.24%、新易盛+13.68%,短线拥挤和挤空风险较高。
    检索:price_snapshot 300308.SZ 300502.SZ 3308.HK 300394.SZ 002281.SZ
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-06-10 · 影响 weakens
    中际旭创曾公告称被列入1260H清单不符合事实且未对经营产生实质影响,说明非经济制裁类名单事件可能被公司澄清削弱。
    检索:Zhongji Innolight military blacklist no material impact statement June 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例没有推翻首轮空头方向,但确认样本薄且草案范围未定,因此维持小仓/试探空头,不加仓,止盈止损沿用保守区间。

方向:高相似先例整体支持直接受限的中国硬件出口商短线下跌,尤其是FCC进口禁令和美国准入限制类事件。

涨幅量级:高相似公开首日反应约从-2%到-13%不等,直接点名且美国敞口高时可到两位数;但本轮未能调用event_study逐日超额收益,只用公开报道首日反应校准。

形态:未见高相似样本反复高开低走导致空头失效;相反,草案级逆变器禁令和最终进口禁令均能触发受损A股下跌,但非经济名单或低美国敞口事件反应会弱。

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 8/10 300274.SZ 2026-06-30 Reuters称美国拟禁外国逆变器,阳光电源作为中国逆变器龙头被市场直接按美国准入风险定价。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -13.9% · +2日 -19.6% · +3日 -20.7% · +4日 -19.4% · +5日 -19.8%
    ⚠来源层级不符(声明wire/实为media)·相位不对齐(post!=target_pre) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为Reuters首发、FCC拟起草进口禁令、直接打到中国硬件供应商美国市场准入。
    经验:草案级FCC进口禁令也能让高美国敞口A股硬件出口商次日大幅下跌,但公司澄清和范围不明会限制持续性。
  • 相似度 8/10 000063.SZ 2026-06-26 Reuters称FCC将禁止进口一组中国厂商设备,MarketScreener显示中兴通讯相关报价-10%。 原文 ↗
    000063.SZ在消息后本地交易反应,MarketScreener展示-10.00%。
    ⚠来源层级不符(声明wire/实为media) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为FCC进口禁令、直接点名中国电子设备厂商,事件机制与本次最接近但产品不同。
    经验:最终禁令且直接点名时,A股受损标的可快速跌停或明显下跌,短线空头方向成立。
  • 相似度 7/10 002415.SZ 2026-06-26 FCC扩展中国设备进口限制,海康威视被列为相关受限公司。 原文 ↗
    002415.SZ在消息相关报价中约-2.84%。
    ⚠来源层级不符(声明wire/实为media) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为FCC进口禁令扩围且中国硬件公司被点名,但海康威视美国敞口和AI数据中心相关性弱于光模块。
    经验:禁令范围直接但美国收入占比较低的公司,反应可能只有数个百分点,不适合用大仓位追空。
  • 相似度 7/10 688981.SH 2020-09-25 美国对中芯国际实施出口限制,上海A股与港股同步下挫。 原文 ↗
    688981.SH在2020-09-28盘中跌约6%。
    ⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明primary_disclosure/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为美国限制中国关键科技公司供应链准入,且A股直接标的;差异是出口管制而非进口禁令。
    经验:美国实质限制落地后,中国直接受限科技龙头会在下一交易日明显下跌,且卖方会下修可持续能力预期。
  • 相似度 7/10 0981.HK 2020-09-04 Reuters独家称特朗普政府考虑将中芯国际加入贸易黑名单。 原文 ↗
    0981.HK在2020-09-07一度跌15%至20%区间。
    ⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明wire/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:Reuters独家称美国考虑将中芯国际列入黑名单,草案/考虑阶段与当前拟议禁令相似。
    经验:仅“考虑列入黑名单”的报道也能触发直接受损中资科技股单日两位数跌幅,说明草案阶段不能忽视。
  • 相似度 6/10 002415.SZ 2022-11-25 FCC正式禁止华为、中兴、海康、大华等新设备授权和销售。 原文 ↗
    002415.SZ后续反应有限,公开报道强调美国收入占比较低。
    ⚠来源层级不符(声明primary_disclosure/实为media) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:FCC禁止中国通信/安防设备新授权,机制相似;但该禁令已酝酿多年且美国收入占比低。
    经验:若受限品类在美国收入很小且政策为多年预期落地,股价反应会弱,不能机械放大所有禁令。
  • 相似度 5/10 300308.SZ 2026-02-11 市场传CSP客户绕过光模块厂商向光芯片厂下单,中际旭创盘后回应不存在。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -0.8% · +2日 -0.2% · +3日 +4.2% · +4日 +6.4% · +5日 +7.6%
    ⚠锚前1-2日已异动6.0%>锚定日0.8%·相位不对齐(post!=target_pre) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为A股光模块龙头的客户/商业模式负面冲击,但只是市场传闻且公司当日否认,不是监管禁令。
    经验:光模块龙头对负面供应链传闻会先跌,但若公司快速澄清,空头持续性会明显下降。
  • 相似度 5/10 002415.SZ 2022-10-07 美国发布广泛芯片出口管制,A股半导体指数及多家芯片股下跌。 原文 ↗
    2022-10-10中国半导体指数跌近7%,北方华创跌停,中芯国际跌约4%。
    ⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明primary_disclosure/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同属美国对中国科技供应链限制,但覆盖芯片出口而非中国组件进口,影响链更广。
    经验:广谱科技限制会拖累中国半导体与数据中心相关股,但宽泛事件的个股空头胜率低于直接点名。
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(7 种)
  • search_processed_events · 结果未知
  • stock_quote · 结果未知
  • normalize_ticker · 结果未知
  • query_modeling_kb · 结果未知
  • kb_search · 结果未知
  • price_snapshot · 结果未知
  • validate_order · 结果未知

原文全文

展开原文 · 20,360 字
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-05 00:30–01:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 150 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。

--- 转录正文 ---
[00:30] The valuation for folks like Marathon tend to be much lower. So the institutional investor market is recognizing that.
[00:30] Those Bitcoinco mining companies that have transferred over or moved into AI computing power are valued much more than the traditional guys that are.
[00:30] All we're going to end it there, but thank you so much for a great setup for us dwaberg us.
[00:30] Boston, he's a regular here for Bloomberg crypto now sticking with the financialization of AI, let's continue this discussion with Ophelia Snyder.
[00:30] Cofounder of 21 shares ophel, you heard what Dee was saying about this convergence between what were formerly crypto mining companies.
[00:30] into AI infrastructure companies, what do you think of this wholesale move, It seems like a wholesale move, at least, and how does it change to economics?
[00:30] Of a company that's doing just that. It makes sense. I think there was a moment where a lot of these companies were quite.
[00:30] Prescient in securing power contracts and securing infrastructure contracts and actually building the necessary infrastructure.
[00:31] I think the shift has made the competition for compute continue to grow, and I don't expect that to abate anytime soon.
[00:31] And there's no reason these firms that are specialized in doing it can't provide those services what if we see and I say what if but there are a lot of folks we talk.
[00:31] To say we will see Bitcoincoin go past $130,000 again at some point when that happens or if that happens, do these firms come?
[00:31] Say wait a second, we're not actually focused on AI compute now we're going back to mining Bitcoin because there's money in them chips.
[00:31] I suspect you will see both, and it likely makes these firms more robust, not less.
[00:31] Econically rationalSo being nimble is a feature at this point, I think so I think generally can they from a technical perspective?
[00:31] Switch on and off easily to like from one specialization to another my understanding and you know this is obviously.
[00:32] I'm not a Bitcoincoin miner by trade, but my understanding is it's not 100% fungible, it's more a function of.
[00:32] Our costs in infrastructure and what the best use of that is, which is not dissimilar from what you typically see around Bitcoincoin mining their moments.
[00:32] It's more or less profitable and certain locations are more or less profitable, so I expect the decision matrix to remain pretty consistent.
[00:32] Scars to tokenization because op you've said that crypto and Tradify are kind of talking past each other when it comes to tokenization and we certainly.
[00:32] SeeNo shortage of announcements of traditional finance companies getting into tokenization wells fargo today, for instance, saying it'll roll out tokenized.
[00:32] useFor commercial clients in a situation like this where you get an announcement from a wells fargo, for instance, what needs to happen behind the scene.
[00:32] m sceneces to make sure that it isn't just an announcement that kind of lands and doesn't go.
[00:32] Beyond that I mean, what needs to happen for everything to actually come into practice. So I think one of the things that's being undervalued in crypto markets today is how.
[00:33] At least some of these implementations really are these are, even though the numbers appear big to crypto, they are not big compared to what flows and.
[00:33] If I really look like and so I think you're going to continue to see a lot of interest in these projects, a lot of desire for them to expand.
[00:33] I think these implementations are critical proof points, but they don't represent a wholesale migration of infrastructure yet they're much more like.
[00:33] Baoons, then they are you know, full scale implementation What would you need to see in order to say, okay, this is no longer a test balloon we're now seeing full scale implementation.
[00:33] You would need to see a significant percentage of flow. And I think that's the piece or a significant percentage of assets right right now you're seeing.
[00:33] You know, either a few hundred million, maybe a couple of billion that pales and concerns like a lot to you know somebody, but you said in comparison.
[00:33] ToThe actual size of these balance sheets, the actual size of the total market for bank deposits compared to the total size of.
[00:34] Equities markets, I mean, those are the benchmarks so when you think about new capital markets technology, which essentially thiss varying flavors of it.
[00:34] But new capital markets technology and new payments technology and new settlements technology, you actually need that critical mass.
[00:34] That's interesting so you're seeing all these test cases and a lot of that seems to be going quite well and you speak to these institutions and they're excited about it the question then becomes okay.
[00:34] The gap between these really exciting initial trials and saying, okay, actually, yes, we're going to do it for our entire deposit base.
[00:34] And that gap is, I think what we're going to be bridging in the next few years, right to actually matter at an institutional scale is this a five year problem.
[00:34] One year problem, what's the timeline so I think I suspect it's a five year problem, maybe five to1.
[00:34] I think you need to get a critical mass going and then it kind of rolls and the role part will take a long time similar to what you.
[00:34] I would like the migration from mutual funds to ETFs, these are not small shifts when you start moving large amounts of money.
[00:35] You're still seeing people deprecate proprietary systems in favor of cloud and that's still happening right now like cloud transformation is.
[00:35] 100% complete I don't think 100% is the goal, I think it's that critical mass like once you get to more than half the market starts.
[00:35] Shift around that and so I think that inflection point is maybe five years out do you think Tradf and Tfi are overhyping tokenization here?
[00:35] No, not in terms of what it can do, but in terms of what it's going to take to go from these initial proof points to full scale deployment.
[00:35] requiresres a lot of middleware, there's a lot of connectivity that goes into that, whether it's updates to risk models to now take into account the possibility of being.
[00:35] Margin called on a Saturday or your accounting principles and how your core books and records actually capture.
[00:35] These transactions, none of that infrastructure is entirely controlled by any of these financial institutions they buy some.
[00:36] Some it's brought together in a variety of different ways kind of a hodgepodge it is, and that takes a very long time to.
[00:36] Mig grade and update so you do the test balloons, you see that it works, and then you start thinking about okay how do you think about updating core systems and these are.
[00:36] Critical dependencies for doing any kind of business for these firms, and so what does it take to put a new technology in a critical depend?
[00:36] pathway. and I think that's the question that we're answering now. what's required to do that. and that's really exciting. I think it's just going to take.
[00:36] A bit more work than maybe people currently realize certainly it's not encapsulated in those exciting breathless announcements about what they're doing.
[00:36] d absolutely it's great to speak with you thank you so much for joining usnyder21.
[00:36] F joining us here in New York Well coming up, we're going to talk to the head of crypto at Visa about the new stableco platforms.
[00:36] It's Bloomberg.
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[00:40] K needita grind higher with the s 500 and nadaq 100 both on track for record highs after treasury secretary scott bessen.
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[00:43] Thankss in Fintech.
[00:43] Are preparing for wider adoption of stablecos yesterday on the close, the ceo of stablecoin payments provider yellow card had a bold prediction.
[00:43] For the technology, I think when you look at international transactions within 10 years, people will not be using other.
[00:43] Forms of moving money across borders, right And even if you are using a company or anything like that to.
[00:44] Move that money across borders, they're going to be using stable coins on the back end it's just such a paradigm shift in the way that money moves across borders.
[00:44] Meanwhile, Via has unveiled its own stablecoin platform, it's designed to let financial firms issue, move and manage stablecoins.
[00:44] discuss is the head of crypto at Via Kai Sheffield, Ka, good to have you on the program. Can you just talk a little bit about the.😊
[00:44] That you were seeing before you created this product like who's it for and why Yeah, sure, So we talked to banks and financial institutions.
[00:44] all over the world, and I think at this stage, every bank needs to have a stablecoin strategy.
[00:44] So they were coming to us and really finding a challenge of where to start, what infrastructure do I need, and so we built the Vi Sablecoin platform.
[00:44] To be the single place that banks can go, to get the infrastructure to build on chain, and then to combine that with professional services.
[00:44] We have a visa consulting team that goes out and helps banks understand the market, figure out which use cases they should focus on, and then be able to execute those.
[00:45] Use cases on our infrastructure so you launched the visa stablecoin platform three weeks ago what have you seen so far, what's been the feedback that you've gotten so far?
[00:45] Yeah, I think the challenge that a lot of banks have is it's really hard to cobble together vendors.
[00:45] accross the different components of the stack, and particularly going through risk committees, partnering with a crypto startup.
[00:45] It's much easier to buy from the partners that they know and trust that they work with already, and so we're trying to go out and partner and build and invest.
[00:45] And create the best set of capabilities that we could put into one place, and then we're the place that can deliver that to the bank the most easily.
[00:45] to the visa dashboard shows adjusted sco volume hit a record 1.79 trillion in Junene, 8.8 trillion in the first.
[00:45] Of this year, much of that happened, most of that happened without visa. Why do stable coins need visa.
[00:46] Sablecoin business at Via is in an amazing spot right now, mostly with the lead that we have with stablecoin Link cards.
[00:46] Stablecos says great infrastructure, but they don't have acceptance, and so you need the ability if stable coins are going to become a form of bunny.
[00:46] Spend them at 200 million merchants across the world except these so we've seen stableco link cards growing at triple digits over the past year.
[00:46] Nly every week there are new stablecoin link card programs that are going live across our network might have seen Western Union today they just launched there.
[00:46] ableco card and so we think there's a whole generation of fintechs building on the infrastructure that still recognize the need and the value that Vi can provide.
[00:46] Connecting them back to the existing financial theco platform launched with open us, which is from the opensort.
[00:46] Not USDC, not USDT this is a new stable coin that I don't think a lot of people have heard of, USDC, by contrast.
[00:46] $70 billion in circulation, USDt has more than 180 billion. why would visa launch with a stableco that few people have heard of?
[00:47] That doesn't have a lot of market share rather than going with something that institutions already use that has a name recognition.
[00:47] Yeah, so I think it's super early for the stable Court ecosystem overall, we joined Open Standard and we're proud to work with about 100.
[00:47] 40 partners around designing a stableco that we think has economic and governance properties that can help set it up to scale.
[00:47] At the same time, we continue to support USDC and other stablecoins and we work with them across settlement, which just reached about 10.
[00:47] Billion dollars in annualized volume across our network. And so we're going to continue to support many stablecrs, but we think that there's still room.
[00:47] An opportunity for new stable coins to merge like open standard that can have the right governance properties to help them scale mentioned.
[00:47] A few weeks into this, these just a few weeks into this. What's the metric that you're going to use internally come the end of the year that says this has been a success.
[00:48] Yeah,I think today it's just the number of banks and institutions that are onboarding we have a sandbox right now.
[00:48] The the team is just overwhelmed with demand of clients coming to us, but it takes time for institutions to be able to launch these products so we've got to be able.
[00:48] So get them into the environment, help them figure out use cases and then deploy those use cases into the market over the coming year all right.
[00:48] Appreci you joining us, Kay Sheffield out there in San Francisco, he's head of crypto over at Visa the new product just launched a few weeks.
[00:48] That's it that it for bloom that's it that's all the time we have, but it's okay we'll be back next week and much more to cover as we' continued.
[00:48] tryify adopt tokenization and on chain and everything else they're now shaking hands roads are colliding they really are let's see.
[00:48] Clarity act goes by the end of the week at least that's what Summer Meringer says we'll see you again next week, this is bloomberg.
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