Bloomberg TV+直播复述SpaceX财报后AI支出、解禁压力及微软AI收入集中度，未形成新增可交易催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-06 02:00–02:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 207 段
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[02:00] Overall, when it comes to the major averages, slightly higher unchanged on the S&P 500, slightly lower down about 13 of1% on the now.
[02:00] Yeah, but here's the thing, even if we're in the green, just one point higher on the S&P 500, then we have a new record because of what happened yesterday.
[02:00] So far this month, Carol, and it is the beginning of the month, the S&P 500 up 3.4%, the NASdaq composites up a 4.3%.
[02:00] I got to say we have a lot going on on this August 5th and it does feel like it's a must see lineup and it does feel in an.
[02:00] wayay that all of it is kind of connected, if you will. And so what do we have coming up the day after those Spacex earnings, we were obsessed with it.
[02:00] Today we're still following through today, we do see the share price down following the company's splurge on AI efforts Next up we've got to talk about the.
[02:00] 101 billion unlocked unlock that is when it comes to shares, more shares, a lot of shares coming on the market, that happens tomorrow.
[02:00] But also on AI, Tim, we've got G squared's latest fundraise that's already investing in names like Anthropic.
[02:01] Also an investor in Pomarket and more we're going to be joined by G squareds Larry Ashbrook, along with Bloomberg's Bailey Lipschultz in just a few minutes.
[02:01] And something you are bringing to the table on this weday, I keep thinking it's Thursdayur, it isn't though yeah robers and all is going to be joining us speaking of prediction mark.
[02:01] He's head of enforcement and legal counsel over at calley on the ongoing legal cases that just continue to pile up yep and then on our core we've got to get to it guys.
[02:01] The massive bond market, we did have the Fed meeting last week, we going' to get into what's next for US.S rates with Katie Kmin G Alpha Simx, I did a deep dive.
[02:01] Story a few years ago that she did, she said something about where the tenure might be headed, we were like, what, but you know, here we are.
[02:01] We continue to talk about rates going didn't quite get there no, got close, but yeah exactly, so I'm curious see where she is in this cycle Yeah speaking prediction.
[02:01] Mar I'm curious what she's predicting about where rates go next. We got it all tied together. We want to get going though, let's kick things off with the check on the trade. Here is Charlie.😊
[02:02] 🎼Thank you very much. And here's what's going on. We got the dow pushing higher as you both pointed out any advance today going to be a record on the Dow up 465 right.
[02:02] Now that is a gain of 9 tenth0 of 1% S&P meandering, fluctuating, take your pick right now higher by two little change thereof under.
[02:02] And 10th of 1% but Nasdaq selling off as is the Nasdaq 100 index, as is the socks, the Philadelphia semiconductorduct stock.
[02:02] 🎼Index down now by three tenth1% AMD after earnings wing on that index down 6.1% bottom line Nasdaq down.
[02:02] 125 now down5 tenth0s of 1% and Naz 100 down31s all of this with the vis below6.
[02:02] Wall Streets so called F gaugeage, the two year currently yielding 4.18% the 10 year, 4.61%.
[02:02] Spot gold is up $175 an ounce surging now by 4.3%, 4253 the ounce.
[02:02] While West Texas intermediate crewed keeping an eye on developments out of the Str of Hormz WT7491.
[02:03] Berl right now, crew WTI down 1.1% barrel of Brent holding below 80, 7915 Brent crew down by 310.
[02:03] %SpX after earnings, it is down now by 11.8% last night the company disclosed higher than expected.
[02:03] Spending on its aI business and of course we've got that $101 billion unlock tomorrow let's see when what happens.
[02:03] When insiders start selling SpaceX again, bears repeating down 11.8% and again, after earnings, advanced microdice is down by.
[02:03] 6.1% I'm char plo Tim and car that is a bloomberg business flash it is indeed all right cha thank you so much.
[02:03] All right, we do want to get to certainly safe to say is the big earnings story of the week, certainly today, SpaceX shares fall.
[02:03] After the company disclosed higher than expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, really spotting an inaugural earnings release that broadly.
[02:04] Exceeded Wall Street estimates, but are investors perhaps not understanding the bigger story and the necessary spend.
[02:04] would say that I dont work for him I'm just saying it's something to consider All right's get it.😊
[02:04] There's our bracing for the next potential hit, we're talking about $101 billion worth of stock becoming available for trading tomorrow back with us is Blueberg Inligence Global.
[02:04] He of technology research is Man deep Singh, he joins us here in New York City?
[02:05] Yeah, but at this point and in fact, the stock is down10.
[02:05] That, you market is anticipating that doubling off float and given the fundamentals.
[02:05] People feel this is a fair price right now seem.
[02:05] In terms of near term goals and 2030 goals.
[02:05] Tllion dollars in revenue. I mean, look, it sounds ambitious and the reason why the market is not believing.
[02:06] You know, Elon Musks right now.
[02:06] Great things in the meantime, but when it comes to putting numbers.
[02:06] And, you know, kind of giving timelines, historic track record isn't that great, and so from that perspective, everyone is.
[02:06] Seeing okay, they're talking about 10 gigawatts in capacity by 2027, whereas currently they are at 1.4 targeting2.
[02:06] awWts by year end. How do they get from 2 to 10, like none of the hyperscalers have been able to do that.
[02:06] From 2 to 10, you need up to $400 billion in Capex. That's not going to happen. Even $200 billion is.
[02:06] Ambitious for a company that doesn't even generate $3 billion in operating cash flow right now. So all these questions around funding.
[02:07] And look, this company is already $1.5 trillion in market caps, and they have $100 billion on their ballot.
[02:07] So it's not as if theyre like a neo cloud that has to raise a lot of money. They already have money, but the scale that.
[02:07] He's talking about its just too big to believe and I don't think they are going to get to 10 gigawatts, but even if they get to 6 gigawt.
[02:07] They'll become the fourth largest cloud provider after Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, so that's huge.😊
[02:07] As an investor, you really have to figure out what is realistic versus what is at the high end, and I think the realistic target.
[02:07] Is6- I mean, they could do up to 6 gigawatt, and that would be huge in the context of cloud revenues.😊
[02:07] So that's what you think is realistic I think so and not so I'm in between, so I feel like this is the.
[02:07] Where everyone seems to be making money right now is in cloud hosting. The hyperscalers are making money.
[02:08] Whether it's Microsoft, Google or Amazon, they had great prints doing what, selling compute on the cloud. That's what SpaceX is saying.😊
[02:08] They want to do and they have the balance sheet to do it just not at the scale Elon talked about last night, yet.
[02:08] So even though that right now the biggest business is starling, connectivity is the biggest segment, the thing that powers them to the.
[02:08] Audacious 2030 goals is becoming not necessarily a hyperscalear, but to selling.
[02:08] Same type of compute that is available at Amazon at Microsoft, maybe at meta.
[02:08] Soon, I't know, we'll find out in the neoclos, Neclouds, Corve, naas, so that's that's.
[02:08] SpaceXs value proposition right now, according to Elon, Yes, and in fact, you don't even have to go to 2030.
[02:09] By the end of this year, they will hit $100 billion in ARR and based on our numbers, 70% of that will.😊
[02:09] From that AI piece and almost 50% to 60% will be cloud hosting. Okay, so I'm glad you are bringing this up. We have a Redhead cross in the.😊
[02:09] terminal that fits right in this Microsoft's AI sales, this just crossing mostly come from open AI this according to.
[02:09] Microsoft disclosure suggests open AI is about 70% of AI sales. We see Microsoft extending a drop to a session low.
[02:09] Earlier about 1.5% it's bounced up a little since then, yeah, it's bounced off that level, yeah it's at down eight tenth0s of 1% right now.
[02:09] What does this tell you that there is incredible concentration, So when Elon says they will get $100 billion in.
[02:09] And 70% of that is AI. You know, the cloud compute consumption will still be anthropic.😊
[02:09] Or I don't think it's going to be open AI in the case of SpaceX, so that's not happening, it will be either Anropic or Google and are the two.😊
[02:10] Companies that they've already partnered with. So they talked about $47.5 billion in backlog bulk of it comes from.
[02:10] Enthropic and Google, and they are looking to add more customers, but there is incredible concentration in this cloud consumption.😊
[02:10] Of compute. And that's what you see with Microsoft I we've got to wrap up. I know we could go on. concentration, though, on.
[02:10] Its own is not necessarily a bad thing, I it Yeah, and look, Don, another aspect of this is for.
[02:10] T to get $100 billion in Er. And they said they are committing to NviDdia chips. So no other chips. I believe Nvidia will back.
[02:10] Stop a lot of this Spacex build out. They need the money. Spacex is the one who is buying chips from Nvidia, but Nvi.
[02:10] I will be the one who will be supporting SpaceX in terms of raising that capital similar to what NVD has done with other Neclouds like CorV.
[02:11] Even others all right, 30 seconds is that is that a problem though of these backstopping agreements Well, not as long as they can generate revenue.
[02:11] So if XAI can generate revenue, then that can generate the next tranche of what they would want to buy from Nvidia.
[02:11] The to another that welcome to the world of AI and Man deepep, you always walk in at the right time, always, always, Man deepep saying Bloomberg In Global head.
[02:11] Technology research, all right, big tech earnings AI trade yes always on our mind, but so too are and we share this with our viewers who ask us cover.
[02:11] The bond market, we do cover the bond market, we love it Fed policy, what comes next, let's get to it so great to have back with us.
[02:11] I keep asking Talia, where's Katie, where's Katie Kaminsky, she is here with us, there she chief research strategist and portfolio manager.
[02:11] Alpha simpleimx, she joins us from Boston, it is so great to have you back with us, we really do bring your name up so much, we love talking to you.
[02:11] I want to ask you, I want to take you back to August of, I think it was 2023, you came on with us.
[02:12] And when we asked you how high ten year Treasury yields could go, you said 6%, why not, it's a level last seen in 2000 we know that and.
[02:12] Is the need to build more risk premium into long term debt We were a bit shocked, we were like, really.
[02:12] say what now, because it does feel like higher rates continue to be part of our narrative, and that's because inflation.
[02:12] I still a little bit sticky here.Yeah, I mean, this is a very good question because actually, the bond market has been really.
[02:12] Difficult to trade from a trend falling perspective, which is what we do. And I think the challenge with bonds has been that,
[02:12] You've been through this back and forth regarding inflation uncertainty, particularly linked to geopolitical risk, but what's been interesting?
[02:12] Is over the recent period, despite the fact that trend signals are pointing to higher yields.
[02:13] Seeing some of that abating recently and you've seen sort of a little bit of respite and sort of a view that growth is actually pretty.
[02:13] Ill it a little bit of a Goldilock scenario that seems to be kind of playing out more recently in the markets, so I'd say for us fixed income.
[02:13] Remains still very tricky, especially when you start thinking about longer horizons as opposed to shorter horizons as you have.
[02:13] See how geopolitical risk really, really evolves in the next few months Did it become less tricky or more tricky after we heard from?
[02:13] Fed chair Kevinsh last Wednesday I mean, that's a good question I think you know, really you have seen.
[02:13] Yields have come down, so there seems to be some sense that, you know, even though inflation has been the key.
[02:13] Focus of the Fed that sort of there seems to be a little bit of room for maybe we might start to think about cuts at some point.
[02:13] A few months from now. And I think the market is trying to feel that out. You have seen that Bo shortwartz.
[02:14] Example have been a little challenging, and that's something that I think we have been noticing more recently. That was not the case earlier in the.
[02:14] When you started to see geopolitical risk research, so for me, it's still really a back and forth between policy.
[02:14] And reaction to geopolitical risk that's key for bonds Yeah, I'm glad you went there because we had a story also yesterday that bond traders.
[02:14] I've been spending millions of dollars to guard against sharp declines in long dated treasuries at risk igniting a bigger bat of volatility in the $31 trillion.
[02:14] Markets, so bottom line, the cost of hedging against a rise in treasury yields has surged since last week as traders piled on Treasury put options.
[02:14] And both US 10 and 30 year bond futures, Katie, I can't make sense of this economy.
[02:14] Where equities and bonds both go up, Toton S of Apollo was on with us saying the 6040 portfolio is broken because equity returns are.
[02:15] Driven by AI concentration rather than the business cycle, while bond returns are now driven by fiscal constraints rather than the cycle.
[02:15] Dynamics how do you see it is it like you said, it's difficult now.
[02:15] To look at correlations between stocks and bonds as a measure of what is really driving bond valuation.
[02:15] Honestly, since March, we've seen a very strong positive correlation between stocks and bonds and as you saw some.
[02:15] Of that geopolitical risk abate you saw bonds also coming back and sort of repricing some of the concerns so I think.
[02:15] For me, inflation, geopolitical risk has been a key driver for bonds, and when you think about that, it does reduce.
[02:15] Of the diversification of bonds for investors, if we could see a nice resolution in some of the geopolitical risk.
[02:15] We could see sort of a normal Fed actually sort of driving interest rate policy and that negative correlation, then that 6040.
[02:16] could be back to normal behavior, but as long as inflation matters, correlations tell us that we have to be cautious.
[02:16] WWhich one of those is a bigger if, in your words, a normal Fed or a resolution to geo?
[02:16] Political conflicts, which which one is is more likely to happen Oh, that's a tough one because I'd say, you know the.
[02:16] I in a position right now where they have room to wait and see in terms of policy, and I think if we do.
[02:16] Polic.
[02:16] IThe Fed policy will have a bigger impact on bond movements, but right now, if you can imagine from the F's perspective.
[02:16] If with oil price and geopolitical risk and inflation a little higher, they have room to kind of.
[02:17] Forecast slightly lower tenure yields could be possible later this year, especially if we see some resolution.
[02:17] Maybe getting closer to four again, some point would be.
[02:17] It could potentially towards the end of the year if we see continued sort of reduced inflation numbers and also strong growth.
[02:18] We're talking with Larry Ashbrook of G Square.
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[02:21] S&P 500 index fluctuating yes higher right now, but after a four day gain, we have got stock swinging between gains.
[02:22] 🎼Losses the dow, the S&P therere both higher any advance today will be another record the Nasdaq composite index, the Nasdaq 100 index.
[02:22] 🎼Theyre both in the red right now, we've got Nasdaq down122 points for the Nasdaq composite index. that's a drop of 510.
[02:22] Of% NAstq 100 index down31s S&P right now up six of 110 of 1% again the Dow.
[02:22] 🎼455 points to up another81 of 1%, by the way, above 54000540.
[02:22] 🎼135 on the Dow, the socks, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiduct index is lowered by three tenths of one.
[02:22] The Vcks right now trading below 16 Wall Street's so called fear gauge2 year 4.18%.
[02:22] With a 10 year, 4.61% and the 30 year 5.16% spot gold up 4. a5% surging.
[02:23] 183 on the precious metal to 4263, while West Texas intermediate crew down5 tenth0 of 1%.
[02:23] 7Brent has turned around in the past few minutes, a little change but hire by 1/10th of 1% US.
[02:23] Hoovering near $75 Iran says it has agreed on a Hormu's shipping route with Oman, it is seen as a potential.
[02:23] St toward reopening of the critical waterway for energy supplies Uber was out with earnings this morning Uber shares down by.
[02:23] .6% it did issue a bookings outlook that just met analyst estimates and said fierce competition in a key Brazil.
[02:23] 🎼Marketed on trips volume rival liftft will be reporting tomorrow, lift shares down now by 3%.
[02:23] US equity record of perhaps the key takeaway at this R little change for the S&P500 index.
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[02:24] hey G squared raised $2.3 billion for its seventh flagship fund, it is targeting investments in growth stage technology firms.
[02:24] As founder Larry Ashbro predicts a coming reset in valuations, which is something we want to dig into, the firm has started building out the fund.
[02:24] companies that we talk about all the time anthropic, polymarket and scale and more Yeah, let's get to it, we welcome Larry.
[02:24] Book he's founder iming partner of G square, he is out there in our Bberg New Chicago burreau, welcome welcome also excuse me with us.
[02:24] Liberg news senior IPO reporter bail Lichelz he's here in studio hey Larry want to kick it off with you first of all welcome so great to have you here.
[02:24] On Bomberg, tell us about this fund, the companies you are targeting, the strategy, and i'm also curious, are there more new names to come?
[02:24] You just like want to double down on some of the investments you've already made Well first of all, thanks for having me it' it's an honor to be here.
[02:25] Half of our 50 employees around the world were humbled that you included us today in your broadcast you.
[02:25] Exting for us, it's exciting for us to be here. The fund 2.3 billion. It's the latest of our flagship vehicle.
[02:25] Really to do the same thing we've been doing for the past 15 years, which is support great companies in their growth stage.
[02:25] Mostly through secondary transactions and saving some capital to help with primary in their growth phase.
[02:25] And really helping them manage their cap tables as they stay private longer and we're excited about the companies we have in the portfolio and the.
[02:25] T set in front of us yeah, Larry, just walk us through if you can quickly, kind of the notion of this growth in the secondary market and what that actually means.
[02:25] When G squared can partner with a company like an Anthropic, and are you providing access to employees to see some liquidity?
[02:25] Is it early stage investors who's selling what you're buying, Yeah, it's all the above, really, and that's changed over 15 years early.
[02:26] Day, it was heavy focused on employee shares. I think as the market has evolved and the secondaries have become.
[02:26] 'mA global asset class with the company staying private longer, more and more of what we're doing is helping other managers and other.
[02:26] GPs manage their liquidity by taking stakes in their portfolio companies to help them return capital to invest.
[02:26] And help the company stay private longer. And so it's a combination of those things. It's everything from one off individual secondaries when the companies have a need to change.
[02:26] Scear to keep that employee engaged and involved so they don't leave to go to another business all the way through broad.
[02:26] Employee tenders where you're making a bona fide offer at one time and a lot of capital upfront and the shares are bought.
[02:26] That way, all the way through to preferred managers buying the stakes that they invested early and what we've seen is.
[02:27] The trend since 2020 is actually about 70% of the deployment on the secondary market has been in preferred shares, so that's been a fundamental shift.
[02:27] In the marketplace as companies stay private longer and the stress on the GplLP relationship is amplified with.
[02:27] Get to late in life with little capital returned, other managers need to return capital. So we've been there to support their port.
[02:27] Foo companies and to support what they need to do is GP, and we're lucky to be where we're at and excited about what.
[02:27] Well, before the deployment of money comes, the fundraising comes and you just closed your your seventh round, 2.3 or fund round.
[02:27] or $2.3 billion in that fund, Larry, compared to the other funds that you've raised, what was it like raising money in this?
[02:27] Environment, was it easy, Was it hard, I know people say it's never easy to raise money, but there is a lot of money out there right now.
[02:27] ly in secondaries, the broader market has woken up a bit, it's now bona fide acid class.
[02:28] Companies see the validity of it, other managers, primary focus managers see the validity of it and LPs around the world.
[02:28] Have a desire to be involved in secondaries because it provides a bit of a margin of safety in growth investments by.
[02:28] The way the capital is deployed and this fund raised for us, anytime you set off to raise capital, It's hard, I like to tell.
[02:28] Our team all the time raising money is hard, deploying it' easy and selling it hard a year in is the quickest we've raised.
[02:28] Our target was just for us in this scale and size of the concentrated portfolio, we need about a billion dollars per fund, plus our Ss and cons.
[02:28] InvestmentsTo be meaningful to a certain set of companies getting very large stakes here, we were able to kind of get twice the size.
[02:28] And half the time, it took us in the prior vintages, and I think it's a lot of things, but mostly a testament to our portfolio management team that did a.
[02:29] coming out of the COvid environment we were in in the pullback and when everybody was running out the front door, we were running.
[02:29] Sor of speak and deploying money at really, really great prices and that those historical funds have done well in raising cash.
[02:29] But scale has gotten easier for us but Larry, walk us through how you're thinking about this current market already deploying in the seventh fund you have Anthropic.
[02:29] Polymarket and scale, three companies that when I talk to folks in the private ecosystem are quite pricey and there's a lot of competition for access to that.
[02:29] How are you thinking about it, whether or not this is a market that's maybe run too far too fast and how you're thinking about deploying capital now and what?
[02:29] through the end of this year and into next Yeah, I like to tell our LPs, Our job is to get involved in the stars of tomorrow today.
[02:29] do that before their household names and when they become household names, we know we've done our job right, and I think in those three examples.