🎙 直播转录Bloomberg TV+Codex · 实盘不做把握 5/10标签:live_transcript
北京时间·🕒 发布 08:00:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 08:00:02·⚡ 决策 08-07 15:13:29 +7h13m·81.1 天前
彭博转述DeepSeek重启近80亿美元融资并拟支撑数据中心建设
DeepSeek拟以约5000亿元估值融资近80亿美元,若落地可支持其数据中心和模型商业化投入,对AI算力基础设施方向偏正面。
📄 原文Bloomberg TV+↗ 原文
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】 来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+ 时段:2026-08-07 07:30–08:00(Asia/Shang…
不做 浪潮信息(000977.SZ)
同一DeepSeek融资与数据中心催化已在近72小时内被系统处理,当前直播未新增点名订单或供应关系,A股已收盘后不重复建仓。
不做 英维克(002837.SZ)
AIDC温控映射逻辑成立但本事件未披露DeepSeek采购或订单金额,且直播不是首发,当前缺少下一交易日可执行edge。
不做 银轮股份(002126.SZ)
液冷链条只是二阶主题映射,未坐实DeepSeek直接订单;融资消息已传播,按当前窗口不追。
不做 海光信息(688041.SH)
本事件是私募融资和模型商业化消息,不是明确国产芯片选型或去海外依赖催化,不能按国产算力篮子强行做多。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- DeepSeek拟以约5000亿元估值融资近80亿美元,若落地可支持其数据中心和模型商业化投入,对AI算力基础设施方向偏正面。
- 该信息没有点名可交易供应商,也没有披露服务器、液冷、电力或芯片采购订单金额,二阶传导仍停留在主题映射。
- 核心融资消息已在8月5日至8月6日被华尔街见闻、Bloomberg、Reuters传播,当前直播只是复述,且系统近72小时内已处理同一催化。
主要风险
- 融资仍为知情人士口径,DeepSeek未见官方公告确认;若签约失败或融资额低于报道,算力扩张预期会回落。
- A股相关映射标的已过当日交易窗口,当前再按直播复述追下一交易日缺少新鲜度和可成交edge。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 24,013 字
【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-07 07:30–08:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 195 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。
--- 转录正文 ---
[07:30] Bringing you the most important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens, I'm Michaelcha Mcckee.
[07:30] On the Mexican border and this is Bloomberg.
[07:30] Well, the uncertainty when it comes to geopolitics, the U Iran situation is top of mind again for markets.😊
[07:30] As we finish out this week in Asia, we are just hearing at a white House event president trump saying that the situation when it comes to the.
[07:30] For moves is moving along, that it's good, but you know as we've seen from the president, not a great deal of detail has really been had through the.😊
[07:30] course of these talks and negotiations and now we are seeing signs that there really is another impasse with the various sides very much in disagreee.😊
[07:30] And on where to go with that, we are seeing those continued gains in New York traded oil up by 1 percent bigger gains that we saw in Brent in the previous.😊
[07:31] So we'll watch to see how Brenent trade at the open, but certainly that risk assessment is starting to get a bit more heightened in terms of more.😊
[07:31] Led energy crisis we're also watching US futures modestly to the upside after what was, you know, not a great session, but of course lots of conversation about.😊
[07:31] The value being found and the valuations for U tech in particular, Japan will be interesting, right, because we have now what a week since the interview.😊
[07:31] Not a great deal of momentum driving further yen gains, it seemsYeah, we're actually passed out 15.
[07:31] Against the U. dollar at this point right, also a big day for Japanpan because we have more than 700 companies reporting just today.
[07:31] BigE season we're in the thick of it right now you mentioned some of those risks around the iran war, of course its oil prices rising.
[07:31] Also means rising costs, supply chain disruptions, we will be watching for some of that narrative coming from all of these companies.
[07:31] Reporting earnings including the likes of recruit today olympus as well we've already heard some of those yen forecasts from Japanesepanese car makers as well.
[07:32] Around 150 to 160 through march of 2027 will also be talking about the macroeconomic backdrop.
[07:32] Yields means for some of these companies as well especially banks, let's bring in our next guest to see strength extending beyond the semiconductor.
[07:32] Dr. Sector this earn season with profit growth drivers broadening with us now is via Nihihia, chief Japan equity strategist at JP.
[07:32] Morgan security it's really good to have you back what are you seeing so far in the earning season here corporate earnings.
[07:32] Very, very strong. As you say, about more than half of the major companies have reported and sales growth year on year is5.
[07:32] % and net income growth is 50%. They are stronger than the peer in US and Europe. and we have to remember.
[07:32] That the strong growth earnings growth was realized under high oil prices, Japanese oil importing company, which means.
[07:33] Corporate pricing power, has become very strong structurally, in my view, and the driver of earnings growth, as you say.
[07:33] Is broadening beyond the AI semi banks, trading companies, wholesale companies.
[07:33] And machinery, those were also the driver going to say I mean, how much of this strength are you seeing?
[07:33] Across the board at a time when we've discussed the supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and of course, not to mention on the backdrop of.
[07:33] Everything is also tariff costs still in play at the moment. Right So I mean, Japan's price transfer ratio has.
[07:33] The defional economy has been 50% compared to 89 to 90% in the US.
[07:33] start of the 2023, it's jumped up to 70% and even under the difficult.
[07:33] Pss in US tariff in 2025 or higher oil prices this year actually.
[07:34] price transfer ratio down just a bit like 68 to a so. So still higher than 50.
[07:34] lation economy that makes corporate earnings strong. We compute E.
[07:34] ed by higher oil prices this time is will be something like 6% point down, but actually mean market.
[07:34] Sinceensus is, I mean, continue to up television even after this's much businesses themselves.
[07:34] Under the strength of their business right now. The issue which Japan has always been cash hoing, right, Business not spending on the.
[07:34] FAnd not paying the salaries of employees. So you can see a virtuous cycle of wage growth as well.
[07:34] mindsetYes, loan growth is now 6%, which is record high these days.
[07:35] This is because of the growth of the corporate's appetite to gross investment, it has just started.
[07:35] This is, I think, in related with a government promotion of gross investment, corporate governances now focus on how corporate.
[07:35] To use excess cash in the balance sheet. So one way is to use for gross investment. another way is to increase which.
[07:35] Both of which should lead to a better economy, that circle of good economy.
[07:35] The strength of the yen now158, yeah, but from a perspective of equity markets.
[07:35] Its actually $ dollar y below 160 is okay, you know, I mean, manageable corporate assumption for 26.
[07:35] FY Dolean is 152 with conservative bias and 150 is the last year's.
[07:35] So our break even dollar I am for households real income growth is 160.
[07:36] So of course, Takahiia administration's physical expansion continued and weakening pleasure.
[07:36] We also heard last month that government hint a potential GIF investment shift.
[07:36] And we saw Japan US join the Fx intervention. So such F funds policy would be some supportive.
[07:36] Toening JP mor seeing the year end 164 year end.
[07:36] , despite everything that has happened with joint intervention from now still four months from now.
[07:36] But there is also risks in a short term and such government address should keep Yen a bit.
[07:36] not to mention, of course, BG decisions as well when it comes to these businesses, we talked about this.
[07:37] The semiconductor side of things. And we talked about the broadening of it, machinery, other sectors like banks as well.
[07:37] Outstanding to you that you think have more potential going forward, I overweight buns.
[07:37] From structural perspective life for medium term time horizon, Some investors see the banks of.
[07:37] Current PB 1.5 times P 15 times already pricing to BG rate hike, so what else?
[07:37] But my view is loan growth is one thing, this is the start of the cycle of strong growth investment.
[07:37] Another thing is potential deposit shift. deposit shift makes banks who have resilience to deposit.
[07:37] ToBeta long term rates rising or upgraded cyber attack can be winner through this process.
[07:37] I think deposit yield, loan yield will be normalized from a level under defal economy that is.
[07:38] So that has not been in EPS or LOE, so I think further upside in medium time will be justified.
[07:38] I mean, all three cap banks have beat their estimates right this quarter,?
[07:38] It seems to be almost consensus that there's more upside for financials, but I Nihihia it's really good to have you with us, chief Japan equity Strategist.
[07:38] At JP morgan Securities and of course, we do have a few earnings to watch today, more than 700 companies report.
[07:38] Southbank is one that were closely watching their quarterly net income fell only 18%.
[07:38] To 347 billion yen that was above estimates unrealized gains from.
[07:38] Intel really offsetting some weaker vision fund holdings, and Nintendo's report card also showed stronger than expected earnings got a boost from.
[07:39] Try free funds with the US and strong sales of in house titles for its flagship switch to console net.
[07:39] In at $934 million beating estimates, ADRs closed at a 7% premium in the US hiding.
[07:39] 🎼Let's get you caught up with some of the corporate headlines that we're following this our Sherry and Singapore lender OCBC's second quarter profit top estimate.😊
[07:39] Helped by strong insurance and wealth management fees, the bank saw net income rise 22% of $1.7 billion and.
[07:39] planslans to complete its capital return program this year, UobB also reported earnings in line with expectations. profit rose 10% there.
[07:39] 🎼1.15 billion underpinned by wealth management fees that helped offset declines in lending income.😊
[07:39] 🎼ended the session nearly 35% lower after the mortgage lender are announced that loss of $452 million suspended.
[07:39] 🎼Dividend for the first time, the company also unveiled a dollar equity capital investment by Oakre capital management and SFS.
[07:40] 🎼grouproup capital of around $2 billion in a new investment vehicle owned by UWM's chief executive officer, Matt Ihvia.
[07:40] 🎼Jane Street is said to be in talk to refinance $11 billion of debt with investors, including Pmco and what could become one of.
[07:40] 🎼The largest private credit deals on Wall Street, the FDA reporting that the financing could be upized to as much as $15 billion and completed as soon as next.
[07:40] 🎼the trading firm is looking to shift its borrowing from public markets to private lenders, providing flexibility and limiting financial disclosure.😊
[07:40] 🎼More ahead on the Asia trade, this is Bloomberg.
[07:41] Every weekday bloomloer put the spotlight on a different.
[07:41] Fs, funds and the forces shaping markets on ETFIQ the future of money with Ber crypto.
[07:41] The players behind major transactions on Bloomberg deals, rates, risk and the cost of capital on Bloomberg Ra Y.
[07:41] Personal finance, retirement and wealth management on Bloomberg Money a different topic every weekday, only on Bloomberg television.
[07:41] 🎼The countdown is on everything you need to.
[07:42] 🎼At the the end of the market day get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close weekdays on bloomloberg contact changes every.
[07:42] 🎼get your fixed income fixed watch Bloomberg real yield now at its new time.
[07:42] Thurssday's at 12 pm Eastern right here on bloomberg.
[07:42] 🎼Bloomberg has learnedt that deep seek is resuming its second funding round so seeking close to $8 billion.
[07:42] Bring our channel correspondent in Minlo for the latest, what do we know about this, how much interest is there?😊
[07:42] We know that monolith is one of the companies that might be contributing to this round of fund raising, but not much clarity yet on who else.
[07:42] Would be involved, but we know the first round of fundraising had drawn interest from the likes of Alibaba, Tencent, as well as the national artificial intelligence.
[07:43] Investment funds, so likely still to be a lot of interest in this company that has been such an icon in the Chinese AI space, right it's seeking.😊
[07:43] To raise close to $8 billion at a valuation of 500 billion yan this is a step up from the 3.
[07:43] 50 billion yuan that it raised in the first round. and some of that funding is likely to help fund its data center build out because we previously.
[07:43] Reported that the company was looking to build a1 gigW data center in inner Mongolia. So yes, also a lot of interest.
[07:43] Clearly after the release of that v4 flash, which was very successful and also priced very aggressively so much so that there is this idea now of.😊
[07:43] The DC death zone, where if your model is less capable or is at the same level of performance, but price.😊
[07:43] Higher you might not be able to survive speaking of prices so much that this has been.
[07:43] Cap pricing that we're seeing from Chinese models right, so what do we make at this price hike, It is it being seen as something of a turning point for these Chinese.😊
[07:44] AI models Yeah, it was quite an unexpected news release yesterday when deepse announced it would be significantly high.😊
[07:44] PricesAfter the discount set it offered on the V4 flash, not clear yet. it hasn't provided details as to how big the price hike.
[07:44] But it's giving a warning to clients to start preparing for that move, but yes, you combine with the news of the fundraising, perhaps there's a little bit more.
[07:44] Pressure now from external investors for the company to pursue profitability. And to your point, it's probably seen as a good thing and a potential.
[07:44] An inflection point that would relieve the pressure valve a little bit and give some room for other companies to raise prices.
[07:44] Well, so this could bode well for the broader AI sector in general when there has been so much pressure when it comes to monetization.
[07:44] Bmer channel correspondent being me know there with the latest as we're also waiting the open.
[07:45] South Korea, of course, take a look at how we're setting up Samsung electroniclectronics pointing to some upside of 9 tenth0s of 1% here in Japan.
[07:45] We'reAlso watching kxia holdings, the broad South Korea market has been pretty active, right we're talking about a plunge of about.
[07:45] Just yesterday as well, this coming as we' continue to see this deep deleveraging in the South Korea market interestingly.
[07:45] Enough, the Korean won, though has seen some highs against the US dollar as we're seeing some exporter flows together supporting.
[07:45] And perhaps a little bit of that speculation and perhaps flows coming from the SK Heyix ADRs listed in the US as well.
[07:45] A lot of memory headlines today, especially out of those U peers are reporting earnings as well as bringing in Bloomberg markets reporter an.
[07:45] Stevens for the setup to Korea, so Anthony, I mean, there's a lot right, Western digital, their Sandisk as well.
[07:45] How is this going to really affect the train across Asia so we saw Korea quite weak yesterday.
[07:46] Ahead of those earnings, because those earnings were out in our time zone. and in the US yes, those stocks were weak and was very interesting what the Western digital meant.😊
[07:46] EIt said that, look, earnings expectations were very high, going into earnings. So it should not be as much of a surprise that stock.
[07:46] Rverted demand is still very strong. So this sets up this dynamic of demand being strong very much at the front end of.
[07:46] People know that demand is booked out pretty much until 2027. and there are some confirmation headlines now from a range of media sources.
[07:46] That HBM demand is booked out into 2027, but you're also seeing some kind of demand destruction on memory demand from.
[07:46] P,, you're getting pushback on this idea that there will be DM supply coming and people want to keep paying up these prices for Dm.
[07:46] And that demand versus supply kind of dynamic. And that debate is what is driving memory here. So we have this headline.
[07:47] From the information that NviDdia is looking to reduce memory usage in its top of the line chips. and this goes alongside Chinese.
[07:47] Innovation in pretty much the same area on how do we reduce the memory intensityivity of the kind of go forward technology.😊
[07:47] Right while this capacity is booked out, at the same time, you see Apple, there's speculation that Apple is failing to get a memory price cut.😊
[07:47] From CxMT, so that market is very tight and what can be done about it seems to be determining the future price action now one thing.😊
[07:47] You kind of touched on is retail positioning in the space has come off pretty materially. So, for example, it was interesting to see Western digital.😊
[07:47] And Sandis, despite having a very sharp move lower after earnings, saw implied volatility fall. And that's something we've seen.😊
[07:47] In Korea recently, as well as the market falls, implied volatility in Korea, It's kind of stuck. It's not reacting in a panic fashion. So maybe some.
[07:47] Of this retail deleveraging sets a kind of a flow underpinning for the memory rate going forward given.
[07:48] Of the volatility that we've seen in tech stocks, especially with the ongoing on and off sell off as well, Anthony, it's interesting to see that citadel is taking this.
[07:48] Perhaps there's a chance to reset talk us through that Yeah, they talk about it as a technical slash flow research.😊
[07:48] So some of those trends I alluded to earlier, the crazy kind of retail demand for upside volatility that has kind of come off a.😊
[07:48] A bit retail flows into technology space as a whole have come off quite materially in line with the semiconductor.😊
[07:48] Index in the US as well. And this is coincided with quite a strong earn season. So fundamentals are improving just as kind of the most.
[07:48] Exaggerated upside flows start to abate, so you have a slightly cleaner picture in terms of positioning to play these fundamentals.😊
[07:48] But on the other hand, the price action is likely to be less aggressive to the upside as a result, so it's going to be more of a slow.😊
[07:49] to the upside as fundamentals get repriced. That is the crux of their report in that the focus moves to the fundamentals and away.
[07:49] From aggressive chasing of flow as the excitement around the picture of AI becomes a more mature story around who is executing.😊
[07:49] What capacity is coming online and how is the technology maturing Yeah, perhaps we can all step back a little bit and breathe.
[07:49] Ey Stevens, Marcus reporter there for Bloomberg, of course, with the latest on the moves and more ahead on the Asia trade, this is Bloomberg.
[07:50] I'm David Weston.
[07:50] On Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech and climate, we go on the road for a look at what.
[07:50] Be the headlines of today and what will likely be the headlines tomorrow they're just making trade offs you know they have oil and gas.
[07:50] Every citizen should be investing in the market accelerate progress in all fields of science watch Wall Street right here on bloom.
[07:50] 🎼what you need to knows what you need to think about making money isn't about drowning and emotions its about understand.
[07:50] 🎼Whats actually markets are the best way to gl signal from noise and that is what we try to do every morning this.
[07:51] Surveillance.
[07:51] So.
[07:51] says situational awareness has invested $400 million in a company that it has backed Sequoia's partner Patrick Grady also told Bloomberg.
[07:51] That Leopold Ashmbrenner had approached the firm about taking over some positions has been.
[07:51] Talking with them about the anthropic stake, you know, King Griffin showed up with what was a better solution for theop poll at that moment in time and he went with,
[07:51] The better solution, I think that our observation is that there is this game on the field over the last couple of years.
[07:51] Investing the AI supply chain, Leopold was one of the first people to recognize that that was the game on the field, and on balance, he played it pretty darn well.
[07:51] So our suspicion is that he's going to be a fixture in Silicon Valley for a long time to come I wanted to get to the vour case study we' talked a bit about Sean.
[07:52] ahead on situational awareness, he did just wire $400 million to a company that we invested in so, oh, could you we actually report it?
[07:52] The 400 million but haven't got a clue the company is Yeah, no comment on that, but he's not good one he's not he's going to be.
[07:52] He's really good. He's going to be around the topic of anthropic. They also that the phone was behind.
[07:52] And the curve, when it comes to the AI startups, Zcoir eventually agreed to invest $2 and a half billion dollars in the company, both Patrick Graddy and Alfred Lys spoke.
[07:52] With about that investment strategy this is the tectonic shift of our lifetime in a perfect world.
[07:52] Backendropic many years ago, we didn't and so the best thing we can do now is to come in at the most scale that we can muster and so 5 billion was kind of a,
[07:52] Eical number I mention to be provocative we ended up at two and a half because we can't really do 5 billion across all of our different funds and so two and a half is.
[07:53] The most we can do and that' unfair to go as far as to say how much money can we deploy without putting the firm at risk.
[07:53] The conversation, two and a half or five would be comfortable numbers as far as that goes, but one thing we've never done SPVs, we're not in this SPV.
[07:53] Where you speak for somethingI think we have enough time today to talk about so we don't do that stuff and so two and a half billion was what we could do out of the core funds.
[07:53] Let me ask you this, I give some background growth early stage since 2017.
[07:53] LED the growth, ColE, you've co led early stage, but you saS consumer, but there's a lot of overlap, right?
[07:53] You've made significant growth stage investments and join boards. You've made early stage investments, particularly in AI. Just talk a little bit about how the two of you.
[07:53] That progressing, you know, forward looking. I think it's very, very simple, which is like, if you've been in this business a long period of time, you know what.
[07:53] A good early stage investment looks like you know what a good growth investment looks like, so Pat has been traditionally a growth investor he made the early.
[07:54] In haveyI've seen how early stage companies grow and advocated for growth investments.
[07:54] Rbnb and Dodash when they grew up and over time, I think have you've been in this business long enough, you'll make both.
[07:54] Early investments and growth investments we have constantantine that champion Citadel securities and Waymo we talked about Sean.
[07:54] If Davidvi that has invested in a neo lab that's relatively early, we have Soia who.
[07:54] Recently sort of flew with me to lo to advocate for the investment in inff.
[07:54] Our team is much more fluid and we don't just going back to like most of our partners don't like being put in up.
[07:55] Of course, we had seen some strength after the U.S, Japan joint intervention, joint yen buying for the Four time since 1990.
[07:55] But we're seeing again a week.
[07:55] Companies are scheduled to report today including recruit holdings, olympus as well Nikki futures pointing to a little bit of.
[07:55] Uite South bank already reported after the close yesterday, quarterly net income fell only 18% and came in above estimates.
[07:55] We also had Nintendo coming.
[07:55] So Cosby futures pointing to some upside will be watching some of those memory names given the plunge.
[07:56] Sandisk and Western digital overnight, the market opens in Sydney, Seoul and Tokyo where next, this is Bloomberg.
[07:57] 🎼And suddenly, Africans feeling this mistrust that we see at community level we value.
[07:57] 🎼Sport we got, and we are still getting from the US. and we think that if we continue.
[07:58] 🎼The leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[07:58] Mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nut jobss.
[07:58] Worse things than that.
[07:58] 🎼TheTraing day is about to start.
[07:58] 🎼Looking for that edge the opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. I'm Gu Johnson I' Anna Edwards and I'm.
[07:59] 🎼This is your trade bringing you up to the minute news whenever and wherever it happens.
[07:59] I'm David Gura in Aspen, Colorado, and this is Bloomberg.
[07:59] This is the Asia trade war counting down to.
[07:59] s major market opens as oil continues to gain ground we're seeing yields rise and really that pressure on risk assets heidi.
[07:59] We haven't even digested U. payroll data coming out on Friday yet not to mention tons of earnings here in Japan.
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-07 07:30–08:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 195 段
说明:以下为该时段该直播间的连续语音转录(直播 ASR,可能有同音/识别误差)。请从中识别与 AI算力/芯片/服务器/光模块/液冷/数据中心/大模型/机器人·具身智能/自动驾驶 等相关的、**可交易**的公司/产品/订单/产能/需求/合作/高管或官员表态,判断是否构成可交易事件;若通篇无可交易内容,判为不做。识别误差请结合上下文与常识修正,勿据孤立音近词臆断。
--- 转录正文 ---
[07:30] Bringing you the most important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens, I'm Michaelcha Mcckee.
[07:30] On the Mexican border and this is Bloomberg.
[07:30] Well, the uncertainty when it comes to geopolitics, the U Iran situation is top of mind again for markets.😊
[07:30] As we finish out this week in Asia, we are just hearing at a white House event president trump saying that the situation when it comes to the.
[07:30] For moves is moving along, that it's good, but you know as we've seen from the president, not a great deal of detail has really been had through the.😊
[07:30] course of these talks and negotiations and now we are seeing signs that there really is another impasse with the various sides very much in disagreee.😊
[07:30] And on where to go with that, we are seeing those continued gains in New York traded oil up by 1 percent bigger gains that we saw in Brent in the previous.😊
[07:31] So we'll watch to see how Brenent trade at the open, but certainly that risk assessment is starting to get a bit more heightened in terms of more.😊
[07:31] Led energy crisis we're also watching US futures modestly to the upside after what was, you know, not a great session, but of course lots of conversation about.😊
[07:31] The value being found and the valuations for U tech in particular, Japan will be interesting, right, because we have now what a week since the interview.😊
[07:31] Not a great deal of momentum driving further yen gains, it seemsYeah, we're actually passed out 15.
[07:31] Against the U. dollar at this point right, also a big day for Japanpan because we have more than 700 companies reporting just today.
[07:31] BigE season we're in the thick of it right now you mentioned some of those risks around the iran war, of course its oil prices rising.
[07:31] Also means rising costs, supply chain disruptions, we will be watching for some of that narrative coming from all of these companies.
[07:31] Reporting earnings including the likes of recruit today olympus as well we've already heard some of those yen forecasts from Japanesepanese car makers as well.
[07:32] Around 150 to 160 through march of 2027 will also be talking about the macroeconomic backdrop.
[07:32] Yields means for some of these companies as well especially banks, let's bring in our next guest to see strength extending beyond the semiconductor.
[07:32] Dr. Sector this earn season with profit growth drivers broadening with us now is via Nihihia, chief Japan equity strategist at JP.
[07:32] Morgan security it's really good to have you back what are you seeing so far in the earning season here corporate earnings.
[07:32] Very, very strong. As you say, about more than half of the major companies have reported and sales growth year on year is5.
[07:32] % and net income growth is 50%. They are stronger than the peer in US and Europe. and we have to remember.
[07:32] That the strong growth earnings growth was realized under high oil prices, Japanese oil importing company, which means.
[07:33] Corporate pricing power, has become very strong structurally, in my view, and the driver of earnings growth, as you say.
[07:33] Is broadening beyond the AI semi banks, trading companies, wholesale companies.
[07:33] And machinery, those were also the driver going to say I mean, how much of this strength are you seeing?
[07:33] Across the board at a time when we've discussed the supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and of course, not to mention on the backdrop of.
[07:33] Everything is also tariff costs still in play at the moment. Right So I mean, Japan's price transfer ratio has.
[07:33] The defional economy has been 50% compared to 89 to 90% in the US.
[07:33] start of the 2023, it's jumped up to 70% and even under the difficult.
[07:33] Pss in US tariff in 2025 or higher oil prices this year actually.
[07:34] price transfer ratio down just a bit like 68 to a so. So still higher than 50.
[07:34] lation economy that makes corporate earnings strong. We compute E.
[07:34] ed by higher oil prices this time is will be something like 6% point down, but actually mean market.
[07:34] Sinceensus is, I mean, continue to up television even after this's much businesses themselves.
[07:34] Under the strength of their business right now. The issue which Japan has always been cash hoing, right, Business not spending on the.
[07:34] FAnd not paying the salaries of employees. So you can see a virtuous cycle of wage growth as well.
[07:34] mindsetYes, loan growth is now 6%, which is record high these days.
[07:35] This is because of the growth of the corporate's appetite to gross investment, it has just started.
[07:35] This is, I think, in related with a government promotion of gross investment, corporate governances now focus on how corporate.
[07:35] To use excess cash in the balance sheet. So one way is to use for gross investment. another way is to increase which.
[07:35] Both of which should lead to a better economy, that circle of good economy.
[07:35] The strength of the yen now158, yeah, but from a perspective of equity markets.
[07:35] Its actually $ dollar y below 160 is okay, you know, I mean, manageable corporate assumption for 26.
[07:35] FY Dolean is 152 with conservative bias and 150 is the last year's.
[07:35] So our break even dollar I am for households real income growth is 160.
[07:36] So of course, Takahiia administration's physical expansion continued and weakening pleasure.
[07:36] We also heard last month that government hint a potential GIF investment shift.
[07:36] And we saw Japan US join the Fx intervention. So such F funds policy would be some supportive.
[07:36] Toening JP mor seeing the year end 164 year end.
[07:36] , despite everything that has happened with joint intervention from now still four months from now.
[07:36] But there is also risks in a short term and such government address should keep Yen a bit.
[07:36] not to mention, of course, BG decisions as well when it comes to these businesses, we talked about this.
[07:37] The semiconductor side of things. And we talked about the broadening of it, machinery, other sectors like banks as well.
[07:37] Outstanding to you that you think have more potential going forward, I overweight buns.
[07:37] From structural perspective life for medium term time horizon, Some investors see the banks of.
[07:37] Current PB 1.5 times P 15 times already pricing to BG rate hike, so what else?
[07:37] But my view is loan growth is one thing, this is the start of the cycle of strong growth investment.
[07:37] Another thing is potential deposit shift. deposit shift makes banks who have resilience to deposit.
[07:37] ToBeta long term rates rising or upgraded cyber attack can be winner through this process.
[07:37] I think deposit yield, loan yield will be normalized from a level under defal economy that is.
[07:38] So that has not been in EPS or LOE, so I think further upside in medium time will be justified.
[07:38] I mean, all three cap banks have beat their estimates right this quarter,?
[07:38] It seems to be almost consensus that there's more upside for financials, but I Nihihia it's really good to have you with us, chief Japan equity Strategist.
[07:38] At JP morgan Securities and of course, we do have a few earnings to watch today, more than 700 companies report.
[07:38] Southbank is one that were closely watching their quarterly net income fell only 18%.
[07:38] To 347 billion yen that was above estimates unrealized gains from.
[07:38] Intel really offsetting some weaker vision fund holdings, and Nintendo's report card also showed stronger than expected earnings got a boost from.
[07:39] Try free funds with the US and strong sales of in house titles for its flagship switch to console net.
[07:39] In at $934 million beating estimates, ADRs closed at a 7% premium in the US hiding.
[07:39] 🎼Let's get you caught up with some of the corporate headlines that we're following this our Sherry and Singapore lender OCBC's second quarter profit top estimate.😊
[07:39] Helped by strong insurance and wealth management fees, the bank saw net income rise 22% of $1.7 billion and.
[07:39] planslans to complete its capital return program this year, UobB also reported earnings in line with expectations. profit rose 10% there.
[07:39] 🎼1.15 billion underpinned by wealth management fees that helped offset declines in lending income.😊
[07:39] 🎼ended the session nearly 35% lower after the mortgage lender are announced that loss of $452 million suspended.
[07:39] 🎼Dividend for the first time, the company also unveiled a dollar equity capital investment by Oakre capital management and SFS.
[07:40] 🎼grouproup capital of around $2 billion in a new investment vehicle owned by UWM's chief executive officer, Matt Ihvia.
[07:40] 🎼Jane Street is said to be in talk to refinance $11 billion of debt with investors, including Pmco and what could become one of.
[07:40] 🎼The largest private credit deals on Wall Street, the FDA reporting that the financing could be upized to as much as $15 billion and completed as soon as next.
[07:40] 🎼the trading firm is looking to shift its borrowing from public markets to private lenders, providing flexibility and limiting financial disclosure.😊
[07:40] 🎼More ahead on the Asia trade, this is Bloomberg.
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[07:42] 🎼Bloomberg has learnedt that deep seek is resuming its second funding round so seeking close to $8 billion.
[07:42] Bring our channel correspondent in Minlo for the latest, what do we know about this, how much interest is there?😊
[07:42] We know that monolith is one of the companies that might be contributing to this round of fund raising, but not much clarity yet on who else.
[07:42] Would be involved, but we know the first round of fundraising had drawn interest from the likes of Alibaba, Tencent, as well as the national artificial intelligence.
[07:43] Investment funds, so likely still to be a lot of interest in this company that has been such an icon in the Chinese AI space, right it's seeking.😊
[07:43] To raise close to $8 billion at a valuation of 500 billion yan this is a step up from the 3.
[07:43] 50 billion yuan that it raised in the first round. and some of that funding is likely to help fund its data center build out because we previously.
[07:43] Reported that the company was looking to build a1 gigW data center in inner Mongolia. So yes, also a lot of interest.
[07:43] Clearly after the release of that v4 flash, which was very successful and also priced very aggressively so much so that there is this idea now of.😊
[07:43] The DC death zone, where if your model is less capable or is at the same level of performance, but price.😊
[07:43] Higher you might not be able to survive speaking of prices so much that this has been.
[07:43] Cap pricing that we're seeing from Chinese models right, so what do we make at this price hike, It is it being seen as something of a turning point for these Chinese.😊
[07:44] AI models Yeah, it was quite an unexpected news release yesterday when deepse announced it would be significantly high.😊
[07:44] PricesAfter the discount set it offered on the V4 flash, not clear yet. it hasn't provided details as to how big the price hike.
[07:44] But it's giving a warning to clients to start preparing for that move, but yes, you combine with the news of the fundraising, perhaps there's a little bit more.
[07:44] Pressure now from external investors for the company to pursue profitability. And to your point, it's probably seen as a good thing and a potential.
[07:44] An inflection point that would relieve the pressure valve a little bit and give some room for other companies to raise prices.
[07:44] Well, so this could bode well for the broader AI sector in general when there has been so much pressure when it comes to monetization.
[07:44] Bmer channel correspondent being me know there with the latest as we're also waiting the open.
[07:45] South Korea, of course, take a look at how we're setting up Samsung electroniclectronics pointing to some upside of 9 tenth0s of 1% here in Japan.
[07:45] We'reAlso watching kxia holdings, the broad South Korea market has been pretty active, right we're talking about a plunge of about.
[07:45] Just yesterday as well, this coming as we' continue to see this deep deleveraging in the South Korea market interestingly.
[07:45] Enough, the Korean won, though has seen some highs against the US dollar as we're seeing some exporter flows together supporting.
[07:45] And perhaps a little bit of that speculation and perhaps flows coming from the SK Heyix ADRs listed in the US as well.
[07:45] A lot of memory headlines today, especially out of those U peers are reporting earnings as well as bringing in Bloomberg markets reporter an.
[07:45] Stevens for the setup to Korea, so Anthony, I mean, there's a lot right, Western digital, their Sandisk as well.
[07:45] How is this going to really affect the train across Asia so we saw Korea quite weak yesterday.
[07:46] Ahead of those earnings, because those earnings were out in our time zone. and in the US yes, those stocks were weak and was very interesting what the Western digital meant.😊
[07:46] EIt said that, look, earnings expectations were very high, going into earnings. So it should not be as much of a surprise that stock.
[07:46] Rverted demand is still very strong. So this sets up this dynamic of demand being strong very much at the front end of.
[07:46] People know that demand is booked out pretty much until 2027. and there are some confirmation headlines now from a range of media sources.
[07:46] That HBM demand is booked out into 2027, but you're also seeing some kind of demand destruction on memory demand from.
[07:46] P,, you're getting pushback on this idea that there will be DM supply coming and people want to keep paying up these prices for Dm.
[07:46] And that demand versus supply kind of dynamic. And that debate is what is driving memory here. So we have this headline.
[07:47] From the information that NviDdia is looking to reduce memory usage in its top of the line chips. and this goes alongside Chinese.
[07:47] Innovation in pretty much the same area on how do we reduce the memory intensityivity of the kind of go forward technology.😊
[07:47] Right while this capacity is booked out, at the same time, you see Apple, there's speculation that Apple is failing to get a memory price cut.😊
[07:47] From CxMT, so that market is very tight and what can be done about it seems to be determining the future price action now one thing.😊
[07:47] You kind of touched on is retail positioning in the space has come off pretty materially. So, for example, it was interesting to see Western digital.😊
[07:47] And Sandis, despite having a very sharp move lower after earnings, saw implied volatility fall. And that's something we've seen.😊
[07:47] In Korea recently, as well as the market falls, implied volatility in Korea, It's kind of stuck. It's not reacting in a panic fashion. So maybe some.
[07:47] Of this retail deleveraging sets a kind of a flow underpinning for the memory rate going forward given.
[07:48] Of the volatility that we've seen in tech stocks, especially with the ongoing on and off sell off as well, Anthony, it's interesting to see that citadel is taking this.
[07:48] Perhaps there's a chance to reset talk us through that Yeah, they talk about it as a technical slash flow research.😊
[07:48] So some of those trends I alluded to earlier, the crazy kind of retail demand for upside volatility that has kind of come off a.😊
[07:48] A bit retail flows into technology space as a whole have come off quite materially in line with the semiconductor.😊
[07:48] Index in the US as well. And this is coincided with quite a strong earn season. So fundamentals are improving just as kind of the most.
[07:48] Exaggerated upside flows start to abate, so you have a slightly cleaner picture in terms of positioning to play these fundamentals.😊
[07:48] But on the other hand, the price action is likely to be less aggressive to the upside as a result, so it's going to be more of a slow.😊
[07:49] to the upside as fundamentals get repriced. That is the crux of their report in that the focus moves to the fundamentals and away.
[07:49] From aggressive chasing of flow as the excitement around the picture of AI becomes a more mature story around who is executing.😊
[07:49] What capacity is coming online and how is the technology maturing Yeah, perhaps we can all step back a little bit and breathe.
[07:49] Ey Stevens, Marcus reporter there for Bloomberg, of course, with the latest on the moves and more ahead on the Asia trade, this is Bloomberg.
[07:50] I'm David Weston.
[07:50] On Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech and climate, we go on the road for a look at what.
[07:50] Be the headlines of today and what will likely be the headlines tomorrow they're just making trade offs you know they have oil and gas.
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[07:51] Surveillance.
[07:51] So.
[07:51] says situational awareness has invested $400 million in a company that it has backed Sequoia's partner Patrick Grady also told Bloomberg.
[07:51] That Leopold Ashmbrenner had approached the firm about taking over some positions has been.
[07:51] Talking with them about the anthropic stake, you know, King Griffin showed up with what was a better solution for theop poll at that moment in time and he went with,
[07:51] The better solution, I think that our observation is that there is this game on the field over the last couple of years.
[07:51] Investing the AI supply chain, Leopold was one of the first people to recognize that that was the game on the field, and on balance, he played it pretty darn well.
[07:51] So our suspicion is that he's going to be a fixture in Silicon Valley for a long time to come I wanted to get to the vour case study we' talked a bit about Sean.
[07:52] ahead on situational awareness, he did just wire $400 million to a company that we invested in so, oh, could you we actually report it?
[07:52] The 400 million but haven't got a clue the company is Yeah, no comment on that, but he's not good one he's not he's going to be.
[07:52] He's really good. He's going to be around the topic of anthropic. They also that the phone was behind.
[07:52] And the curve, when it comes to the AI startups, Zcoir eventually agreed to invest $2 and a half billion dollars in the company, both Patrick Graddy and Alfred Lys spoke.
[07:52] With about that investment strategy this is the tectonic shift of our lifetime in a perfect world.
[07:52] Backendropic many years ago, we didn't and so the best thing we can do now is to come in at the most scale that we can muster and so 5 billion was kind of a,
[07:52] Eical number I mention to be provocative we ended up at two and a half because we can't really do 5 billion across all of our different funds and so two and a half is.
[07:53] The most we can do and that' unfair to go as far as to say how much money can we deploy without putting the firm at risk.
[07:53] The conversation, two and a half or five would be comfortable numbers as far as that goes, but one thing we've never done SPVs, we're not in this SPV.
[07:53] Where you speak for somethingI think we have enough time today to talk about so we don't do that stuff and so two and a half billion was what we could do out of the core funds.
[07:53] Let me ask you this, I give some background growth early stage since 2017.
[07:53] LED the growth, ColE, you've co led early stage, but you saS consumer, but there's a lot of overlap, right?
[07:53] You've made significant growth stage investments and join boards. You've made early stage investments, particularly in AI. Just talk a little bit about how the two of you.
[07:53] That progressing, you know, forward looking. I think it's very, very simple, which is like, if you've been in this business a long period of time, you know what.
[07:53] A good early stage investment looks like you know what a good growth investment looks like, so Pat has been traditionally a growth investor he made the early.
[07:54] In haveyI've seen how early stage companies grow and advocated for growth investments.
[07:54] Rbnb and Dodash when they grew up and over time, I think have you've been in this business long enough, you'll make both.
[07:54] Early investments and growth investments we have constantantine that champion Citadel securities and Waymo we talked about Sean.
[07:54] If Davidvi that has invested in a neo lab that's relatively early, we have Soia who.
[07:54] Recently sort of flew with me to lo to advocate for the investment in inff.
[07:54] Our team is much more fluid and we don't just going back to like most of our partners don't like being put in up.
[07:55] Of course, we had seen some strength after the U.S, Japan joint intervention, joint yen buying for the Four time since 1990.
[07:55] But we're seeing again a week.
[07:55] Companies are scheduled to report today including recruit holdings, olympus as well Nikki futures pointing to a little bit of.
[07:55] Uite South bank already reported after the close yesterday, quarterly net income fell only 18% and came in above estimates.
[07:55] We also had Nintendo coming.
[07:55] So Cosby futures pointing to some upside will be watching some of those memory names given the plunge.
[07:56] Sandisk and Western digital overnight, the market opens in Sydney, Seoul and Tokyo where next, this is Bloomberg.
[07:57] 🎼And suddenly, Africans feeling this mistrust that we see at community level we value.
[07:57] 🎼Sport we got, and we are still getting from the US. and we think that if we continue.
[07:58] 🎼The leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[07:58] Mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left wing nut jobss.
[07:58] Worse things than that.
[07:58] 🎼TheTraing day is about to start.
[07:58] 🎼Looking for that edge the opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. I'm Gu Johnson I' Anna Edwards and I'm.
[07:59] 🎼This is your trade bringing you up to the minute news whenever and wherever it happens.
[07:59] I'm David Gura in Aspen, Colorado, and this is Bloomberg.
[07:59] This is the Asia trade war counting down to.
[07:59] s major market opens as oil continues to gain ground we're seeing yields rise and really that pressure on risk assets heidi.
[07:59] We haven't even digested U. payroll data coming out on Friday yet not to mention tons of earnings here in Japan.
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