彭博直播转述Cloudflare等美股盘前异动，未形成新的AI算力交易催化

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-07 17:30–18:00(Asia/Shanghai),共 162 段
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[17:30] SN mind the 30 year yield, which is really pretty elevated now at 521 and change Again, Brent almost at $83.
[17:30] 🎼TLet's get to some individual movers now over to London and.
[17:30] airbnb has lifted his guidance for the second time this year, it seems that despite those higher fuel costs despite consumer confidence taking a bit of.😊
[17:30] They're still very resilient at travel demand, especially in the US and Europe and we are seeing that reflected in that guidance raise and that share price.😊
[17:30] This morning, moving on to Cloudflare, which is another company that is moving higher this morning, we're up about 15% in Pri.😊
[17:30] cyber security that has boosted guidance. it seems that as we see this growing AI adoption.
[17:30] Demand for those digital defenses and cyber security systems and so we are seeing that really drive those shares this morning.
[17:30] For this company and finally, the digital advertising company trade desk is down significantly taking a major hit this morning down.
[17:31] Almost 28% after giving quite a disappointing guidance that actually prompted four downgrades, at least four downgrades.😊
[17:31] On that stock, and Blo Bitends analysts said that the company's turnaround is losing credibility, so we're seeing a lot of volatility.😊
[17:31] In this company this morning and a huge huge hit in pre market trading all right kloe, thank you so much chloe me there taking us through some of the pre market movers.
[17:31] Well, we're just under three hours away now from the July payrolls report joining us on that is Christrisopher Hodge, chief U as aconomist at the Texas.
[17:31] I should have you in studio for the first time Chris very nice to chat with you, what are we anticipating, what's your baseline number today?
[17:31] Our official forecast is a payroll gain of 65,000 jobs, that's slightly below consensus, but within the realm of normal.
[17:31] We do think we're going to get an uptick in the unemployment rate, there was a remarkably strong slowdown in the primary.
[17:32] Participation rate in the last reading, we think that's a bit of a statistical anomaly that's going to bounce back and more people entering into the job force.
[17:32] I think he's going to put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, but ultimately in the realm of normal, so not really going to move the fed's thinking too much.
[17:32] A huge amount of fragility in the data yet on the labor market. do you anticipate that we will at some point, there are still voices out there saying it's coming and before the of the.
[17:32] Yeah, the labor market's been remarkably stable, and I think we've seen a slowdown in labor demand, but we've also seen an attendance slowdown in labor.
[17:32] Sly so that has kept the unemployment rate within a very narrow range throughout the past year or so.
[17:32] I like a few others, do think that there is an underlying weakness there that if you ask consumers about their confidence in.
[17:32] ability to find a new better paying job that's been flagging a little bit as well. So ultimately, I do think it's right in a sweet spot.
[17:32] For the Fed that it's a labor market that's stable, but it's not contributing to any inflationary pressures in our view well we definitely didn't see any inflationary pressures.
[17:33] The unit Labor policy yesterday, the revisions for June, are you anticipating that we'll see an upward revision and would it have to be a lot?😊
[17:33] word for the market's price in hike historically speaking over the past 10 readings, five of them have been.
[17:33] up for June.5 have been revised down. So it's sort of a crap shoot either way. But I do think there's a little bit of folly in looking at just.
[17:33] One or two numbers, I mean, this is labor market that throughout 2026 has created on average about 92,000 jobs.
[17:33] Certainly at or above most estimates of the breakeven rate, so nothing terribly concerning, I think we'd have to see a pretty shocking.
[17:33] Downward number to really shake what the fed is thinking right now award number is.
[17:33] Is it a coin at this point or is the bias more towards a hikeI think the bias is probably more towards a hike right now, but is.
[17:34] That's more data dependent than ever, the press conference in July, I do think, added a little bit.
[17:34] credibilityed concerns about chair washsh now I think those are going to be fleeting. I do think he is very serious about getting the inflation target back.
[17:34] Down to 2 percent and we're cautiously optimistic about the next two inflation prints so we don't see.
[17:34] A whole lot of inflationary impulse from the major components of inflation, and we're optimistic that there will be a slow grind down to 2%.
[17:34] questionest is, is the F going to get frustrated with that progress that it's not moving fast enough, but right now we have an extended hold in our.
[17:34] P forecast for the F so the f report yesterday I know you saw it it seemed to suggest that for.
[17:34] There was some dissatisfaction at the F as to that news conference that you just mentioned does it say to you?
[17:34] Re cameI think it's sort of clear, you know, the report was that chair washsh could have done.
[17:35] Things differently and maybe could have been explicit about if inflation stays sticky or reaccelerates.
[17:35] Is going to be hiking. So I think this happens with almost every new chair of the Fed.
[17:35] Communication is a little bit rocky at first, but ultimately I think this is a chair that wants to speak less, and I think we're probably going to see less.
[17:35] Ps conferences in the future why do you think he did speak that way I mean on the one hand he's not kg at all is you know, where're price stability.
[17:35] That's what were going to do. we're going to bring inflation down. and at the same time, some of the comments from the press conference came off as just a little bit you know.
[17:35] A little bit cageG, a little bit, you know, what we don't know what we're going to do, is he speaking to different audiences, is he also targeting the president fors?
[17:35] AtI think there's a lot of both internal and external stakeholders that he has to cater to.
[17:36] wants to gain credibility with his colleagues as well and if his colleagues are going to be speaking and he's not going to be as fourth.
[17:36] Right, then that void is going to be filled, so I do think that hes he is speaking on behalf of the committee.
[17:36] Speaking at the press conference, and I think he's sort of still getting a handle about how he wants to communicate and I think a lot of the task forces,
[17:36] Are going to do a lot of that work to establish how the F is going to be communicating in 2027 and beyond, but until then.
[17:36] It a little bit of a crap the president just telling punch news that it's not completely up to wash on whether the F changes interest rates.
[17:36] There's a committee there but that he won't be criticizing him, he says quote he's great so in that sense, it seems like he has a free hand, but if he outsources,
[17:36] Sort of the hiking impetus to other people, then perhaps it takes the pressure off from a little bit, or is that too much of a political reading of what's going on.
[17:36] Li little bit too much of a political reading about what's going on I do think Walsh has been a hawk for most of his career. This is probably a job that he's.
[17:37] Wanted for the past 20 years or so, and I think he's doing the job right now for posterity's sake. and he knows that history is going to be viewing him.
[17:37] IsEff as chair of the Fed in whether or not inflation comes back down to target. So I don't think he's a political actor, but it's a very tough.
[17:37] Political area right now, we are seeing things like incremental tariff threats and so on coming you know weekly.
[17:37] At this point, are we through the worst of the inflation, at least headline inflation fears, I think that we are really.
[17:37] The tariff threat, the effective tariff rate hasn't moved a whole lot since April 2nd of 2025, weve really just swapped out.
[17:37] The legal authorities in which tariffs are being applied, so it's not like once the court struck down the emergency tariffs that businesses dropped prices.
[17:37] They just stopped increasing them at that rate. So inflation is a rate of change in prices. And I don't see a reacceleration.
[17:38] there because the effect of tariff rates really haven't changed a whole lot so the yield curve as it stands now mean we were up five or six basis points know in the last.
[17:38] 24 hours, is this reflective of reality or is this pricing in some fears I do think it's pricing in.
[17:38] I do think the FT article yesterday probably quells a little bit of that that some of the fears.
[17:38] Wash might be a dove inhawks clothing, I don't think that's actually the case, but there's a confluence events from Japan.
[17:38] To worries about the fiscal outlook, et cetera, et cetera. So there is a bit of an uncertainty premium that's starting to be priced in right now, but don't think.
[17:38] That's going to be permanent The long end of the curve is absolutely, I mean, its quite elevated at this point. I mean, historically, maybe that's not.
[17:38] A huge amount staff to pay for 30 or dead, but at the same time relative to recently it is.
[17:39] Makes are going to want to tackle all right Chris we have to leave it there, but thank you so much we'd be looking forward to looking at the results of the.
[17:39] 🎼A little bit but not completely whether the Fed should hike rates before the November elections.
[17:39] In an interview with Pful News, Trumpmp said"Wsh has a board that's very political.
[17:40] And autism as soon as next week, sources telling doomberg President Trump won.
[17:40] 🎼To see additional action on the matter, an order on vaccines and autism would put a spotlight on the topic officials had previously sought a downplay ahead of the mid.
[17:41] Consumer spend in America, that means economy is okay, and that probably means the rest of the markets and the construct in a final debate.
[17:41] H what's building a plant it's.
[17:41] Inventory buildup don't miss Bberg surveillance live every weekday Oh hello that just wanted to say crime.
[17:42] 🎼Is back.
[17:43] Bloomberg, more than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about.
[17:43] I don't want to say it has been.
[17:43] Now we control it, but they can always shoot something, they always have something or drop them.
[17:43] I think we're doing very well I just, you know, I'm involved in the negotiation, I think we're doing fine, it could be sick.
[17:44] Deal with Oman Bberg Aviir Abu Omar is back with us from Dubai, so give us what we know exactly of Iran.
[17:44] And Oman are about to come out with a deal that apparently is struck.
[17:44] ing to state media in around this is what we know right, this is not a formalized way of us looking.
[17:44] At this deal between Raman and Iran, but according to the state media, the deal will include two major clauses, one is Iran is considered.
[17:44] Bahring US and Israeli flaggedship from crossing through the Strait of Verse. And then the second big part of it is that Iran is also considering.
[17:44] What it considers hostile vessel making their way through the of. now for the first one, historically speaking don'.
[17:44] About a lot of evidence of U or Israeli flagships that had made their way through the Strait of Ra. So it could be a symbolic move.
[17:44] I trying to assert its dominance, but for the second one, the second part in this, Iran trying to charge hostile ships according to that.
[17:45] according to state mediaThat is what could be dangerous because this is the largest oil exporting region in the world and traders are really.
[17:45] That hostile ships term as Iran's way of saying that it will have to charge vessels from Gcc nations.
[17:45] have to wait and see what exactly comes out in that draft president trump did say a couple of days ago over 48 hours that will know more.
[17:45] In 48 hours now that time window has gone, we still don't have from the iranian side that draft and then again iran through official.
[17:46] Yeah, so this is the biggest escalation since the truce that was reached vaney between the true War parties in 2022 so quite a.
[17:46] That is quite concerningW didn the parameters of the s of course, the hais are Iran backed based in Yemen and what we know.
[17:46] Is that they attacked the government in Yemen, which is backed by the Saudi coalition, leaving some casualties there admittedly also by.
[17:46] The yemeni government now what we understand and what we have reported on over the past week or so is that sdi is trying to speak to.
[17:46] The Yemen based hois to find a way back to diplomacy via Aman or Amman is mediating those conversations as well according to bloomlobergs.
[17:46] Those don't seem to be bearing any fruit because those latest escalations happened overnight. theis are not only attacking the.
[17:47] In Yemen, but they're also threatening to attack ships, Saudi ships in the Red Sea now the Red Sea is the pathway that Saudiaudi Arabia.
[17:47] Had resorted to throughout the course of this warvanie staying away from the strait of hermose and so even that waterway.
[17:47] Babel Mendup, another crucial waterway is now prone to those attacks by the houthis, possibly leaving an impact on.
[17:47] B crude pricesWe're not seeing a lot of that now as a matter of fact, we're seeing br crude about two tenths lower at this point, but still above that.
[17:47] A mark of 80 on the barrel and they had migrated as well, not just the Bao meda, but they had also started attacking more normal.
[17:47] s A, thank you so much. We'll obviously continue to monitor That's Sloberg's Abbi Abu Omar Turn to tech this week's rally.😊
[17:47] Continues to persist with futures still rising this morning, joining us now is Matt Bloom of Bloomberg In. Matt will valuations on all of these.
[17:48] I related names and chip names, memory names, will they continue to be as volatile going forward or are we anywhere close to price discovery?😊
[17:48] On some kind of a stable evaluation, I think we should still assume quite a high degree of.😊
[17:48] AAnd certainly in the second half of this year and probably into next year because there's still a huge amount for investors to figure out about the.
[17:48] Size of the own opportunity, the relative opportunity that different players have within that and how they're executing against it, I think there's probably still.
[17:48] More surprises to come in terms of capital spending and some kind of polarization and how people are getting returns against.
[17:48] And China's potential for dominance in any of these fields, will we know a lot more in 3 to six months.
[17:48] Once whether China can actually take market share internationally, I think we're definitely going to get a lot more cl, and that'll see we started.
[17:48] See some IPO activity against some of the Chinese technology names, I think that's going to grow in the second half this year.
[17:49] In 2027, so we'll get a lot more insight about the capabilities of the companies that are operating out of China.
[17:49] of find out about some companies that weren't really that well known before either. And I think China is clearly investing heavily in this.
[17:49] They're doing it in a very different way to the US companies, and I think that probably over time.
[17:49] AAPA is going to close obviously they've taken quite a different approach on AI models,, going for a much more kind of efficient cost.
[17:49] Effective approach relative to the kind of big hyper schedulees in the U. So I think the competition between the U and China.
[17:49] He's Tom Masar technology companies is definitely going to grow over the next 12 to 18 months of China ramping up things like memory production as well now.😊
[17:49] The Nasdaq was down yesterday, but SpaceX certainly wasnton closed up 6.7% on the day, which wasn't fully half the drop from.
[17:50] The previous day, but nevertheless it was higher, your reaction to this $100 billion lockup expiring.
[17:50] Dig like thatYeah you know I think probably most of that reaction we saw was really.
[17:50] A recovery from that big drop on earnings day, I think to some degree, this release.
[17:50] Additional equity into the market helped to provide new shares for trade, I think some of that was probably short covering.
[17:50] But perhaps also retail investors who'd been disappointed through the IPO allocations, getting an opportunity to.
[17:50] kind of buy more exposure, I think still, if you bought this in the IPO, you were buying it for a long term story.
[17:50] see a dip you'd probably be, you have the cash, you're probably going to be thinking, well, this is a good opportunity to increase my exposure, so I think perhaps not such a surprise.
[17:50] IsThat we've seen that reaction given the weakness of the day before and the retail investor appetite we've seen for the last few months.
[17:51] At the beginning of what's going to be so many lockup expiries ending with Elon Musk's own 6.4 billion.
[17:51] Shares of Class A common stock next year, but I want to ask you about the short sellers, you mentioned them.
[17:51] Current are taking advantage of this, so S3 data on Wednesday showed that short interest was at 36% and give it to us.
[17:51] Is that relatively high, short interest, I mean, obviously we would only take three days of turnover for that to.
[17:51] Yeah, I mean, it just sound like a very high short interest, you know, this is a volatile name.
[17:51] With very limited information, it's been quite polarising, there's been very different views out there about the forward opportunity.
[17:51] For SpaceX and whether it's priced correctly or not, and if you're a short seller.
[17:52] You have to have high conviction and a lot of bravery think.
[17:53] In case you missed it on glimberg brief rolling inflation.
[17:53] Correlation between stocks and bonds have flipped positive in weeks.
[17:54] The role that alternatives play when you think about infrastructure is where we're.
[17:54] When news breaks in comes the car into Downing street, Bberg has you covered and Burnham arriving for all the context.
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[17:55] Aspen, Colorado, and this is Bloomberg.
[17:55] 🎼This is Bomberg Reef I'm Valley Quinn in New York now a look at what's ahead today as he didn't know the main event tonight.😊
[17:55] 🎼coming at830 AM Eastern we also get some F speak with Richmond F President Tombarken speaking at 10 AM and.
[17:55] 🎼the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway earnings on deck for Saturday. Let's take a look at some premarket movers, Airbnb lifting its outlook again.😊
[17:55] U and European demand going to be stronger in the second half, and that's the second time this year that Airbnb has lifted its outlook.
[17:55] 1It's the return to the software makers once again and it continues this morning with last and soaring after results.
[17:56] And a great forecast digital advertising company tradedes though is a different story down almost 30%.😊
[17:56] Premarket analyst downgrades are piling up. they gave a weak forecast. It had weak revenue growth. it's still in that dispute with publicists and it's just.
[17:56] outlook for trade desk Let's take a look at your macro picture as we head towards payrolls ever so slowly. Now like one of the futures pointed higher.😊
[17:56] After yesterday's small decline and as results start.
[17:56] 🎼Fireran on what it calls hop.
[17:58] You know, I've been called worse things than that.
[17:58] You think she owned the place 23 and me I think is so incredibly valuable, we're coming back.
[17:58] , but we've don enough time Why should people trust you I don't think anybody should trust any company or entity completely.
[17:58] No one the way I could see AI being banned or blocked is if something really went wrong.
[17:59] And if something really went wrong, then maybe it deserves to be So is it paradise ahead or Gattica maybe somewhere in the middle?
[17:59] The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day.
[17:59] 🎼Get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close weekdays on Bloomberg contact changes everything.
[17:59] Bringing you up to the minute global news whenever and wherever it happens, I'm Shaanna Bsace in Ela, Saudidi Arabia.