Cisco财报后盘前下跌，AI订单强劲但市场担忧毛利率与高预期

【实时直播转录 · Bloomberg TV+】
来源:Bloomberg TV+(bloomberg 直播间 btv_us) · 标题:Bloomberg TV+
时段:2026-08-13 18:00–18:30(Asia/Shanghai),共 199 段
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[18:00] Drives higher earnings and we're seeing that in the first quarter and second quarter you do have to ground yourself in the earnings story I think the market's going.
[18:00] 🎼And I think it's going higher on earnings This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Farrell, Lisa Broitz and and Marie Hern.
[18:00] Good morning, welcome to bloomberg surveillance futures rising back towards record highs as traders price out more aggressive fed rate hikes.
[18:00] Today's inflation gauge coming in clear as mud with mar looking ahead to today's ppiI data for perhaps a bit more clarity in U.. borrowing costs.
[18:00] A growing concern is the treasury gears up to sell 30 year bonds at the highest yield going back to 2001 after yesterday's very important ten.
[18:00] Auction sold at the highest yield is going back to 2007 so this morning the fed may be able to have some breathing room as the wall street journal and chart board says it.
[18:00] Those that there's a sigh coming from those disappointed in the ci increase of only 11000% yesterday because they wanted to put that.
[18:01] Credibility question in focus and basically throwing some shade on those that are a little bit skeptical of what Kevin mar is up to.
[18:01] The sigh of relief that we are not hearing right now is at the treasury department and it's not just because of what's going on in the auctions, but also an update on how much we are.
[18:01] Right now we are spending more in the first 10 months of this year than fiscal 2025 the concern that this isnt.
[18:01] In the purview of the federal reserves and actually what's going on in the treasury market has nothing to do with fed credibility as much as just.
[18:01] A fiscal doom loop and what that concern raises considering the fact it is fine to have yields at these levels which they were pre crisis.
[18:01] Only have a trillion dollars of debt, but if you have $40 trillion of debt and your interest payment is your fastest growing component of your overall budget.
[18:01] Well suddenly it becomes more of a problem and when you look on the month breakdown, Medicaredica expenses for the month total 174 billion up from 1030.
[18:01] Then of course, there's social security and then $104 billion in net interest on the national debt.
[18:02] Incredibly high number and as you say fastest growing where are we going to be year end with this level of yield so before everybody shuts off this tv.
[18:02] Saying oh, they're screaming away the deficit once again, this isn't really seem to affect the overall rally and I think that that's notable, it has come from earnings, it has been broad based.
[18:02] And the broadening out has been what has been outperforming the equal weight yesterday reaching another record high s& really just a video.
[18:02] 10 of a% away from new all time highs driven by kind of the bifurcation of on one hot hand chip stocks coming through as well.
[18:02] Just this idea that broad based earnings really was delivering it's all about earnings you heard that yesterday fromed garni it wasn't about fear of missing.
[18:02] It's the fabulous earnings momentum you are seeing and the fact that also we got some of those catalysts, whether or not it's in South Korea and what's going.
[18:02] On with sK heinx and Sammsung, there has been a more broader appetite once again to look at the AI trade and said this still has more lead.
[18:03] Which is why you see equity future today again climbing back toward all time highs, S& futures up to ten0s of a percent Naq.
[18:03] 🎼Underperforming just a touch but seeing that lift in the Russell 2000 as well. a big part of the picture is Tuesdays1s and 30s, this idea that yesterday's CPI.
[18:03] Did not necessarily mandate some sort of action by the federal reserve the odds of a fed rate hike come september have fallen the lowest.
[18:03] Levels going back to the june fomc meeting to year yields 4.17% 30 year yields watch this face ahead of the auction5.
[18:03] .24% that would be the highest yield going back to 2001 if the Treasury department sells them there and masks shares.
[18:03] Climbing and premarket trading or climbing in Europeanan hours, this to me is one of the most interesting stories and perhaps the oil story.
[18:03] Casulated in one name up 7.8% right now ah we are seeing kind of range bound oil prices, the shippers.
[18:03] Not so much rainbound no as a result of disruptions of supply chain issues that around the world most notably straight of her movies who have these freight rates.
[18:04] That are just up and so much higher demand, so they raise their full year outlook for the second time in seven weeks.
[18:04] Time in seven weeks they're saying we are just seeing more of that demand, they are just going to ink more money and that is the environment right now and as long as this conflict goes.
[18:04] ins go these are going to be the companies that are going to be able to make profit push pull underneath the inflation story coming up this hour Max ktner H.
[18:04] As wall street trims rate hike bets angela xno of cfrra is chipfl drives consumer prices higher and richson.
[18:04] Of ap as wages struggle to outpace inflation we begin this hour, stock returning to climb and bond yields falling just to touch ahead of another round of inflation.
[18:04] Daner of hSbc writing U. activity is decelerating, which combined with the latest inflation readings.
[18:04] In a further dovish repricing of front end rates max joins us now for more max so good to see you taking a step back.
[18:05] Of peak exceptionalism in the U and the idea of being max bullish seems like it's a bit at counter odds. Can.
[18:05] Why those two ideas are completely compatible. Yeah, good morning, Lisa, thanks for having me. I think actually, it's probably more a race than.
[18:05] Fx story rather than an equity story, because when you look at the right side of things, I think the idea that we've got right now that that narrative.
[18:05] around US exceptionalism has perhaps become a little bit too consensuss that now being unwound in the next couple of months.
[18:05] That probably should lead to, like we said, a bit of a dovish repricing of front end US rates and that of course.
[18:05] Would take away that threat of rate hikes, that threat of monetary tightening. That, of course, also probably then should be leading to a little bit low.😰
[18:05] Of volatility across the fixed income space, and that, of course, is actually pretty good for valuations and equities good.😊
[18:05] Multiples inequities, it's good for emerging market assets, it's good for credit spread, it does take away that fear and that threat.😊
[18:06] Of monetary tightening that's on the one hand, On the other hand, If then the dollar is quite well behaved, that also means, imagine if, for example, Dxy was.
[18:06] Go to 110. That would be, on the one hand, pricing use exceptionalism in the Fx market. But let's always bear in mind that when.
[18:06] Look at the Mag7, for example, about 50% of their sales come from overseas come from outside of the US. so in fact, that would be a pretty.😊
[18:06] Big headwind for the megacaps and for the largest companies in the S&P 500.
[18:06] A pretty well behaved dollar, even if it's just about flattish now going forward, that's pretty good. And actually, it doesn't really then constitute that much.
[18:06] Of a headwind from an fx perspective as well it's easy to understand why some people are struggling to get their hands around this economy on one hand, you're seeing the fastest growth.
[18:06] And profits from S 500 companies going back to 2021 or outside of a recession period recovery in recent history.
[18:07] handPeople are not talking about robust growth and some of the recent economic data has come out kind of middling, is this a feature or not a bug?
[18:07] The idea that corporate profits are taking an increasing share of the U GDP, but labor as a share, not so much that there's this bifurcation that does.
[18:07] ConI think that's part of it. Partly, however, I think it's also that when we look at the earnings and we look at the Q.
[18:07] Reporting season, we obviously look at the second quarter. We look at the last three months. We probably look less at the next three months. and I do think.
[18:07] What people are underestimating right now is how much we're extrapolating from the strength in US top.😊
[18:07] A data over the last really nine months. You look at economic surprise indices over the last8, nine months.
[18:07] Uninterrupted positive streak there, so we've had really activity data in the US that have been really surprising to the upside.
[18:07] Because of the one big beautiful bill, because of the depreciation, the Capex incentives, because of tax refunds in February and April, tax refunds being.😊
[18:08] 20% higher for consumers compared to 2025. all of those impulses have now happened. They've all happened now.
[18:08] In the last nine months, and that was giving us the positive surprises, however, those impulses, they're not being unwound, I don't think there's going to be going.
[18:08] all the way down to negative, no, but they're just not repeating, so a lot of those impulses are now in the rear view mirror and that means that actually,
[18:08] Going forward, perhaps I think there is a bit of a basis for the remainder of the year that at least a couple of months we're going to see some negative economic surprises.😊
[18:08] That unwinds a little bit the US exceptionalism narrative, and that's good for front end rights in the US..
[18:08] Pulses that you've just described coming from the United States, especially given the fact that there's a midterm election in November and we're looking likely.
[18:08] Now, to what Lisa was just saying, is it still a bifurcated economy where corporates are benefits?
[18:09] yes absolutely, so I do think that particularly in the Q3 reporting season that's going to come up in two months time.😊
[18:09] He still broadly supportive because you look at Q3 versus Q2 sequential learning expectations once again look pretty you know.😊
[18:09] retty easy to beat. So I don't think that'll be a huge problem for corporates. It's probably more on the consumption side of things, where things look a little bit worrying.
[18:09] When you look at some of the credit card data, some of the credit card activity data, then clearly since sort of the middle to the end of June over the last month.😊
[18:09] After two months activity on the credit card side is really starting to slow down.😊
[18:09] Conumer side, where I think we're starting to see a little bit of deceleration. Again, I'm not saying we're going to see a severe slowdown or we're going to see even.
[18:09] A recession note, it's just maybe that, yeah, maybe we're going to go and decelerate towards potential, slightly above potential, not towards two.😊
[18:09] After 3% growth rates anymore, and that of course, again brings you back to a pretty Goldilocks backdrop, so the positive news.
[18:10] Are coming probably more from the corporate side, less from the consumer side All right, so let's drive to crazy Stetuart Kais are a little bit crazy over at city.
[18:10] Group this morning he always says good news is good news is bad news is bad news are you saying that bad news is good news for equities given the rate backdrop.
[18:10] Yes, absolutely, I think we're going to have a few, at least the first couple of weeks, if not the first two, three months, where that first streak of bad news.😊
[18:10] Where perhaps economic surprise in this season in the next couple months then start to roll over into negative territory where actually equities can hold up really, really well.
[18:10] Because again, that will give a bit of a tailwind to valuations. Let's not forget that November last year, not even a year ago, it just months.
[18:10] the S&P was trading at 23 times earnings and we're now almost at 19 and a half times earnings. you know, we had a multiple compression of three and a half.😊
[18:10] So there is, I think, if there really is a bit of a tailboned from rates coming from lower volatility in fixed income.
[18:11] GivenThat threat of F rate hikes being unwound, there really is quite a bit of a tailwind coming for US equities and for the.
[18:11] For the growth, for the momentum kind of complex in the equity universe in particular, Max Kener always wonderful to catch up with you.
[18:11] without a suit jacket Maxner there of HSBC right I mean that was sort of what you thought too when you saw my goodness second I saw jacket.
[18:11] And I thought, oh no, what kind of news you have to deliver, and he is a little bit more bearish or constructive than he usually is when he's usually Max Bull.
[18:11] But bearish means he's even more bullish because potentially lower rates, so it just adds to the tailwin behind some of these equities, right now let's get you an update on story.
[18:11] Elsewhere here is your plumber brief the Qui li good morning the Japaneseese government is backing the prospect of another boj rate hike in the coming months.
[18:11] Sourceces telling us here at bloomberg, the boj is considering another increase in seem oroctober as officials seek to counter persistent weakness in the yen.
[18:11] Cisco shares are lower in the premarket, the company's AI outlook disappointing investors forecasting $7. half billion.
[18:12] And sales tied to the data center boom this fiscal year after a massive $9.3 billion over the past 12 months.
[18:12] U. intelligence officials were skeptical of an Iranian assassination threat against President Donald Trump following the NATO summit last.
[18:12] The Washington post award the white house and Secret Service took precautions and secretly flew trump out of Turkey in an alternate.
[18:12] 🎼Despite doubts about the relay threat and that is your boomberg brief, Lisa, thank you so much, Ronnie up next extending.
[18:12] I want to give every last chance before decapitation I think it's going in pretty soon I don't think they can.
[18:12] Go much longer ir is broke totally broke at some point maybe they'll do something and then they get blown away Colel wayne sand of intelligence.
[18:12] Next this is bloomberg surveillance good morning.
[18:14] Welcome to Bloomberg this week.
[18:14] I'm davi i'm lis mateay and i'm christina raffiti we're tracking breaking news today from wall street to washington over this weekend.
[18:14] 🎼what listen stream week was the spotlight on a different of.
[18:14] Fs, funds and the forces shaping markets on ETFIQ the future of money with Bloomberg crypto.
[18:14] The players behind major transactions on Bloomberg deals, rates, risk and the cost of capital on Bloomberg Real Y and Per.
[18:14] Finance retirement and wealth management on Bloomberg money a different topic every weekday, only on Bloomberg television.
[18:15] 🎼morning, good morning. This is bloombergvan. We back to the opening trade.
[18:15] 🎼this is the trade. this is Wall Street week. Wecom to balance of power. You're watching Bberg deal. We to bloomberg this weekend this.😊
[18:15] lo.
[18:15] to be back to bad news is good news type of dynamics i'm so sorry swear kiser over in Cigroup but max k are seeing the lift today in.
[18:15] U. equity is continuing to build and he is still max bullish in equities because he is expecting a deceleration in the U.S economy.
[18:15] Through that kind of concept throughout the day to104 percent gain on s futures who are saying the y just marginally creeping higher after.
[18:15] Saiitakaihi, the prime minister of Japan seemed open to the idea of the Bank of Japan, hiking rates sooner 72% chance right now.
[18:15] That the boj will be a squarely in acting position comes september 10 year yields declining by about two basis points after yesterday's aug.
[18:16] The highest levels going back to 2007 on those 10 year yields sold yesterday and bring crude down 1.4%.
[18:16] What's the latest there is it just sort of fluctuating image because why not, yes, but also we did have the Department of energy put out some numbers and I think people.
[18:16] They were skeptical, but now a lot of people are realizing more oil is getting out of the Middle East, whether it's pipelines, whether transponderers are being.
[18:16] Turned off and individuals are going ship to ship I think that's potentially why you could see some weakness, but we are still living in this paralysis because the conflict,
[18:16] Is continuing and still living in a higher cost world as mars demonstrated with their results under surveillance this morning extending the stalemate with iran.
[18:16] At some point they're going to say we just can't take him anymore I want to give every last chance before decapitation be.
[18:16] We'll see happensI think it's going end pretty soon i don't think they can go much longer Iranan is broke, totally broke at point.
[18:17] They'll do something and then they get blown away. Here's latest. the diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran continues the Trump administration working to.
[18:17] Mimize economic pressure on tehran as the irGC reorganizes its military, bloombergstyyler kendall joins us now for morera hay tyyler.
[18:17] Hey lisa good morning at this point there is very little public indication that there is movement when it comes.
[18:17] To the diplomatic efforts to get a deal done or reopen the Straiit of herms, in fact, we heard from patan's foreign ministry yesterday saying.
[18:17] The broader peace process has stalled, though there was confirmation that talks are underway to extend the negotiating window as we come up.
[18:17] On the 60 day mark, the original intended a timeframe to get a deal done before the talks essentially went off the rails now as you mentioned.
[18:17] It does feel like we're pointed towards escalation in some regard as new reporting indicates that iran has rearranged its military to take.
[18:17] A more aggressive posture we heard from a top irgc official telling iran state media that a flurry of new appointments is.
[18:18] Meant to signal a quote more offensive doctrine now of course, the stop and start nature of these talks continues to disrupt commercial.
[18:18] Shipping and regional exporters trying to get their crude to market, but bloomberg news has now confirmed that the uae's state oil company.
[18:18] continuess to be the most successful at getting their crude out and is now offering to shuttle ir rocky oil exports.
[18:18] The straight lisa here at home aaa says that we are seeing the highest diesel and gasoline prices for this.
[18:18] In the year we are reaching these seasonal highs as the average for a regular gallon of gas is now hovering just above $4.
[18:18] Heer Kenendall, thank you so much for that and that really is going to be a big issue heading into the midterm elections in November there also is a big issue about Mu.
[18:18] AMHWe've been seeing this in stories from the Wall Street Journal, from the Washington Post, from the New York Times, a question of how much that's driving.
[18:19] Decision making over in washing, the idea that we've used up a significant proportion, particularly of anti ballistic missile defenders.
[18:19] Even if we don't have the hard facts in terms of the actual data on where munition numbers are, because no one in the doD will give you that the fact of the matter is there's tos of.
[18:19] Reporting and you can see with the department of defense asking our entire industrial complex to produce more that just goes to show you.
[18:19] To know what the numbers are, it just goes to show what that urgency is right now at the Pentagon and the concern there Colel wayne sanders of intelligence.
[18:19] Joins us now from more Colel, I'm just curious from your vantage point starting there with the munitions aspect, why is it so difficult to ramp up production?
[18:19] Fill the stockpiles in short order, not just with respect to Iran, but ahead of any potential conflict that could emerge.
[18:19] Yeah, no, absolutely when you look at the supply chain for the United States, you start looking at those industrial suppliers, the Lockheeds, the RTX.
[18:19] have a significant amount of supply chain concerns whenever you're putting it together right, it's not just something as simple as, hey, go into the factory and put this one piece.
[18:20] And then throw it together modularly, you have to deal with solid rocket motors, you have batteries, you have thermalplting, you have all these different things.
[18:20] Come from different suppliers throughout your chain that you have to put together. And then you have to once you do that, the production lines have to be there.
[18:20] sBe a movement in the needle, obviously in terms of this, you've seen a lot from Lockheed in terms of being pushed to triple their capacity.
[18:20] For PAC three interceptors and their scalability for it, quadruple, their terminal high altitude, air defense, their Tad interceptors, as well as the.
[18:20] Decistripe munitions, which is long range munition as well to triple. so that's just one example right now of what's being pushed for. so when deputy secretary.
[18:20] Defense feinberg push for this 21 day, hey, we're looking for a surge in capability right now, they're looking for I think, at this point in time.
[18:20] Some of those areas, those batteries in energetics and other parts of the supply chain to say you guys need to look beyond just the standard missile.
[18:21] Portion of it and look throughout the rest of it and find out how you can do it faster do we have the right hardware right now and I say this because the wall Street Journal this morning.
[18:21] Has a story about how U.S. forces were defeated from Ukrainian forces when they were doing some sort of war game in Germany because of.
[18:21] DronsAnd these are basically the same drones the irans are using against U.. forces in the Middle East.
[18:21] The unique thing about this from a warfare perspective is I look at there's three different things going on in the world right now and the U. has to be able to prepare for all of them.
[18:21] Have the asymmetric threat capability from Iranan you also have what's almost a ground battle consideration and that's where the ukrainians coming in and helping.
[18:21] To teach latest tactical techniques and procedures specifically so that the U capabilities and defense capabilities, it could be something.
[18:21] Simple as what type of electronic signature you actually put out and whether or not those drones are able to see you and then what they're able to do at that point in time.
[18:21] You can develop the proper types of countermeasures, you see that a lot in some of the ground systems called active protection systems, the APS.
[18:22] System like Israel has one called the trophy A. These are one of those types of things that then the US is able to bring back and say what type of.
[18:22] Changes do i need to make you cannot be prepared for one type of battle and that's the end of it because you still have an indopacific threat as well.
[18:22] With a peer adversary level, you're dealing with a ground battle in Europepe that you have to be able to prepare for and then also this asymmetric threat that you're seeing.
[18:22] And Lisas asked the most important question in terms of what are we seeing in terms of our inventories that you think maybe is driving the decision.
[18:22] In the Oval OfficeYeah, I think you hit it on the head when you talk about interceptors right now you're seeing that.
[18:22] Acros board, really, there's three different levels. You have to have an exquisite munition that can take out a ballistic missile threat. And so that's where you're looking at your PA inter.
[18:22] There's your Tad interceptors, your SM6s and SM3s, which come from RTX and they're mainlyland the Navy ones.
[18:23] The ones you have to do for exquisite capability, you then have to have low cost containerized munitions, you have to have a lower cost intercept.
[18:23] That you can shoot at for some of the Shahid 136 drones that you've seen in Iran as well and then a very, very low cost.
[18:23] hich is in the directed energy side of the house and you're looking at high powered microwaves and high energy lasers to try and deal with some drone swarm capability.
[18:23] All three of these are growth areas because you have to replenish the exquisite that has to be there. You have to build out that middle capacity thats where you.
[18:23] The Pentagon working with coas fires, zoneone 5, andel, Lios and Castian for.
[18:23] Creating tens of thousands of these capabilities in the low cost interceptors and then continued money within r&D as well as in the procurement side of the house.
[18:23] For this directed energy, the lasers and the high powered microwaves as well does the dod have the money it needs right now for all of us?
[18:23] The answer to that question is always no, because there's always going to be a higher demand than there is a supply, so the urgency right now is.
[18:24] Re the urgency has been around, though, it has been around since probably about 2022, where they started to recognize is if we're trying to.
[18:24] two front war that we have to continue to increase the capacity necessary to do it as those go up, the numbers go up, the sophistication goes up.
[18:24] So therefore, then the amount of science and technology that goes into each of the seekers that goes onto an inner.
[18:24] Becomes that much more expensive, but also that much more important. So you see this as continuing to be this circle that goes through47.
[18:24] as part of the reconciliation bill of the 350 that's being presented to Congressgress you know that's just for the mus, mostly for the replen.
[18:24] That's not even getting into a $15 billion area for directed energy with $10 billion of R&D that's already been spent.
[18:24] wellColonel wayne sand of blueware thank you so much a complete clinic at a time when people are looking at the industrial base as in the.
[18:25] Industrial defense base as potentially an area of growth for obvious reasons, it's just notable to me every single nation in the world right.
[18:25] Now is trying to rebuild these stockpiles It's a global dearth of these particular types of missiles. You just wonder how difficult it is and how much.
[18:25] Inflation you're going to end up as everybody seeks the same thing yeah, it's getting very expensive and when you look at where we're spending our money on even right now.
[18:25] That interest payments we've talked about is surpassing the defense budget while you have the dod really wanting 1.5 trillion for.
[18:25] Next year is Congress going to green like that remains a question yeah, it remains a question how to finance it ahead of that 30 year auction, $25 billion at 1 pm.
[18:25] Eastern coming up in the next hour, Angelo is Zeeno of cRA as memory costs soar not the only thing with respect.
[18:25] The defense departmentman also, of course the ship sector plus Yahya on with your morning mover cisco falling as its outlook disappoints investors seeking.
[18:25] A bigger AI payoff, you can outperform, but if you're not outperforming the whisper number, well, your shares get punished at a time.
[18:26] Companies have been delivering and out delivering themselves from new York this is Bberg surveillance Good morning.
[18:28] Western countries, all of them are attacking funding to Africa and some of these programs were supported.
[18:28] 🎼By funding coming from Western countries like for human resources, for testing.
[18:28] 🎼Transportation of samples. and suddenly African countries has to think how to.
[18:28] 🎼To fund money and to cover this gap, but it sets some time and I think the community all all of these factors.
[18:28] 🎼A fueling this mistrust that we see at community level, We value the support we.
[18:29] 🎼We and we are still getting from the US and we think that if we continue to work together and there is no reason for the U.
[18:29] Not Africa CDC, Africa CDC is the leader in terms of public health in Africa.
[18:29] Next week on leaders with me, Fran Laqua, I speak with Harvard Business School Profesor Linda Hill.
[18:29] About what CEOs need to know to be successful it really is not about them, it is about the organization about how to lead.
[18:29] In the age of AI that requires a lot of confidence and why great leaders embrace conflict You need to amplify difference.
[18:29] So tune into the podcast version of leaders with Franine Laqua, listen and watch on Bloomberg television or wherever you get your podcasts.
[18:29] Today we're adding to gains from yesterday.