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CommonWealth MagazineQwen · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 09-07(台北日)仅日期·时区推断·⟳ 抓取 09-07 08:56:37·⚡ 决策 09-11 18:39:28 +4d09h·46.2 天前

台媒 Semicon 会后周评称 Google 扶持「美系」AI 供应链:联发科分食 TPU、英特尔拿第八代封装、Flex 取代鸿海做机架二供——4 天前旧综述,当事股已反应并回落

这是一篇 4.5 天前的会议综述型周评,不是可交易催化:所有实质主张(联发科 TPU 份额跃升、Intel EMIB-T 承接封装、Flex/Jabil 做 Google 机架 EMS、Google capex 翻倍、Google 或成台积电前两大客户)在内部 KB 中早于本文 4–12 周已有多源覆盖,且本文关键独家仅来自匿名「industry sources」并锁在付费 Substack,无公司公告、无订单金额、无官方确认;市场反应也已发生并回吐(联发科 9/7 +7.81% 后连续回落、Intel 9/8 +9.05% 后 9/10 -5.57%、Flex 9/8 +4.38% 后两日 -5.5%)。同时世代归属存在源间冲突(本文称联发科拿第八代训练版,专家纪要称 v9 仍归博通、联发科做 v10),无法定位方向明确、量级可算、尚未定价的交易腿,故整体不做。

📄 原文CommonWealth Magazine↗ 原文
Why Google Is Building Its Own Nvidia
Source:TechTaiwan Google is rapidly expanding its in-house AI chip business, partnering with MediaTek and reshaping its…
不做 联发科(2454.TW)
主要受益方但无新增事实:TPU 份额叙事(2027 年出货份额约 40%、V9 2028 年 60–70%)自 2026-06 起已在内部库多轮传播,本文只是会议综述再包装;股价 9/7 已跳空 +7.81%(高 4855)随后两日回落,9/10 收 4720、距 52 周高 -4.46%、距 52 周低 +328%,且世代归属与专家纪要冲突,无正期望
不做 Flex(FLEX.US)
「Google 机架二供是 Flex 而非鸿海」非新事实(Funda 专家纪要 2026-08-14 已述 L11 绝大部分由 Jabil 与 Flex 做),且无订单金额;股价 9/8 高开至 115.28、+4.38% 后 9/9 -1.43%、9/10 -4.14% 收 108.01,13 周轨迹 100→72 持续下行、距 60 日高 -34.9%,属逆风中的已消化叙事,不做左侧盲接
不做 Celestica(CLS.US)
失去机架独家性理论上偏负,但仅来自匿名业内转述、无金额无官方动作,且专家纪要显示其仍主导 Google TPU L6、L11 仅约 10%;股价近 5 日 +17.08%(9/3 单日 +11.55%)与利空方向相反,不满足做空红线(无明确强空催化),亦无做多理由
不做 Intel(INTC.US)
超大市值软催化、无金额:EMIB-T 2026 年规模化本就在内部定量库,Intel Foundry 2025 年对外三方封测收入仅 3.07 亿美元,相对市值增量不足;股价 9/8 +9.05%、9/9 +1.69% 后 9/10 -5.57% 收 100.32,反应已完成并回吐
不做 Broadcom(AVGO.US)
份额被分食的担忧自 6–7 月已充分交易(20 日 -13.27%、距 52 周高 -26.99%),摩根士丹利 80% 收入份额防守论亦在库;本文无新增丢单或指引证据,不构成新的做空催化
不做 台积电(2330.TW)
「Google 或成前两大客户、超越 Apple」为旧传闻,我们已于 2026-09-09 就同题转述判「不做」;超大市值+无金额增量+股价 9/7 +2.07% 后走平(9/10 收 2450、距 52 周高 -3.35%),无可交易 edge
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

事实层:CommonWealth/TechTaiwan 于 2026-09-07 发布 Semicon Taiwan 2026 会后第一篇周评,复述 Google AI 基础设施首席技术官 Amin Vahdat 的演讲与记者会,并加入匿名业内消息称 Google 机架二供将是 Flex(非鸿海)、联发科版第八代 TPU 交 Intel 做 EMIB-T 封装。影响链层:若属实,正面指向联发科(ASIC 设计服务份额)、Intel(先进封装导入)、Flex(EMS 机架量)、台积电(capex 与前两大客户),负面指向博通(TPU 份额)与 Celestica(独家性)、以及 CoWoS 垄断。证据层:内部 KB 显示这些链条均非新事实——摩根士丹利 8/7 路演已给联发科 2027 年 TPU 收入近 160 亿美元、出货份额约 40%、V9 2028 年 60–70%;Funda 专家 8/14 已说明 Google TPU L11 绝大部分由 Jabil 与 Flex 做、Celestica 主导 L6;acecamp 6 月系列已讨论 EMIB 采用时点,且 6/22 专家纪要与本文在 TPU 世代归属上互相矛盾。价格层:当事股在 9/7–9/8 已跳空反应(联发科 +7.81%、Intel +9.05%、Flex +4.38%、台积电 +2.07%),随后 9/9–9/1

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-07 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗

关键理由

  • 不做多:主要受益方联发科的 TPU 份额叙事自 2026-06 起已多轮传播并被摩根士丹利等给出具体数字,股价 9/7 已跳空 +7.81%、距 52 周高仅 -4.46%,本文未提供任何新的金额或官方确认。
  • 不做多二阶:Intel(EMIB-T 封装)与 Flex(机架二供)的对应关系早于本文 4–8 周已在内部专家纪要中出现,两者在 9/8 跳空后于 9/9–9/10 明显回吐,属高开低走的已消化行情。
  • 不做空:Celestica 失去独家性与博通份额被分食均为匿名单方转述、无金额无确认,且 CLS 近 5 日 +17.08%、AVGO 20 日已 -13.27%,反向证据与价格都不支持做空红线要求的强空催化。

主要风险

  • 若付费 Substack 全文后续披露 Google 对 Flex/联发科的正式订单金额或官方确认,或联发科公布 ASIC 收入指引,则本判断需重估——那才是真正的新增事实。
  • 本文与内部专家纪要在 TPU 世代归属上冲突(联发科做第八代训练版 vs v9 仍归博通、联发科做 v10),据此推导任何一方份额弹性都可能方向性错误。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-07 · 影响 invalidates
    摩根士丹利路演纪要早已给出联发科 2027 年 TPU 收入高点近 160 亿美元、收入份额约 20%、出货份额近 40%,V9 世代 2028 年出货份额 60–70%——本文的「券商估 40%」并非新增事实
    检索:联发科 Google TPU 第七代 第八代 ASIC 设计服务 份额 2028
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-08-14 · 影响 invalidates
    Funda 专家访谈(2026-08-14)已明确 Google TPU 案全为 EMS 分层,L11 绝大部分由 Jabil 与 Flex 做、Celestica 主导 L6 并做部分 L10/L11——「Flex 成二供」早于本文三周已在库
    检索:Flex 伟创力 Celestica Google AI 服务器 机架 组装 第二供应商 EMS 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-06-22 · 影响 weakens
    专家纪要称 v9 仍由博通开发(代号 Puma Fish)、联发科做的是 v10(HumuFish,2027 年底/2028 年初),与本文「联发科拿下第八代训练版」的世代归属相互矛盾,说明该叙事在业内仍有争议、不可当作已确认事实
    检索:TPU v8 v9 联发科 Marvell 博通 世代归属 谷歌供应商策略 EMIB 采用时点 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-14 · 影响 invalidates
    摩根士丹利反驳「博通份额腰斩」的三个量产门槛(HBM、先进封装、大规模系统验证)与其约 80% 收入份额防守论已在库;Celestica 仍主导 L6,且股价近 5 日 +17.08%,做空缺乏明确强空催化
    检索:Celestica Google TPU L6 份额 独家 博通 ASIC 80% 收入份额 防守
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-09-11 · 影响 supports
    限定 2026-08-25 之后的检索未召回任何新的公司级披露或券商更新(仅命中 SEMICON India 日历与无关 A 股调研记录),说明本文之后并无增量事实跟进
    检索:Semicon Taiwan 2026 Google Amin Vahdat 台积电 联发科 capex 2000亿 供应链

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足本身即结论的一部分:在没有可锚定首发催化的情况下不设定 tp/sl,也不给任何 ENTER;若后续出现 Google/Flex/联发科的正式披露,再以该披露日为首发锚重做先例统计

方向:无可锚定的同相位先例;从内部库与本轮日线看,同一叙事在过去三个月已多次出现,每次的价格反应都集中在消息当日跳空、随后 1–3 日回吐(联发科 9/7、Intel 9/8、Flex 9/8),指向「重复叙事+高开低走」而非持续单边

涨幅量级:本轮不据先例定幅度:本文无首发时刻可锚(会议综述+付费墙+匿名信源),提交 event_study 会把 6–8 周前的同题旧闻当作锚,量到的是余波而非反应

形态:日线结构反复呈现高开低走:Flex 9/8 开 110.77/高 115.28 → 9/10 收 108.01;Intel 9/8 开 100.8/高 106.09 → 9/10 收 100.32;联发科 9/7 高 4855 → 9/9 收 4625

工具执行结果 · 成功 12 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 81 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`google ai 服务器机架第二供应商 flex celestica | google tpu 联发科 mediatek 第八代 asic 份额 | intel emib-t 封装 google tpu 替代 cowos | semicon taiwan 2026 google amin vahdat keynote`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 45.5/72 小时、1436 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候
  2. fetch_decision_experience 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
    {
  3. kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,369 ms
    {
  4. kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,453 ms
    {
  5. query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 41 ms
    {"result": "modeling_kb 命中 12 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 6 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] Google TPU · AI加速器厂商格局(英伟达 vs 自研ASIC vs AMD)——份额三分图 + 自研ASIC电力/部署明细 · CY2027E = +5 GW(承诺,增量) / 机队~5M颗 GW(承诺/合约) 或 机队出货(百万颗) ⟨预测⟩[1][2]\n 依据:
  6. query_modeling_kb 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 28 ms
    {"result": "modeling_kb 命中 10 条 (库快照 2026-07-27 · AI 算力链 19 页 · 本次命中证据最新 2026-06-02 · 其中 ⟨预测⟩ 4 条) —— 这是**定期重生成的快照**,不是活数据;比快照更晚的事实以你手上的信号/kb_search 为准。\n\n• [A] Intel Foundry(INTC)— Foveros / EMIB 3D 先进封装 · 2025营收 · 2025营收 = US$17,826M(含三方A&T US$307M) US$M[1]\n 依据: Intel Foundry 2025营收US$178.26亿
  7. stock_quote 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 10,038 ms
    取价失败: TimeoutError:
  8. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 725 ms
    {
  9. stock_quote 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 215 ms
    {
  10. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 53 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「2454.TW,CLS.US,FLEX.US,INTC.US」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 12 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 1009 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ 2454.TW:相关历史决策 129 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n◆ CLS.US:相关历史决策 36 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 1 条(2.8%) · 已结算 1 笔 · 胜率 100% · 中位 +7.01% · 均值 +7.01% ⚠️只有 1 笔,样本太薄,
  11. kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 1,708 ms
    {
  12. price_snapshot 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 33 ms
    {
  13. validate_order 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 16 ms
    {

原文全文

展开原文 · 5,928 字
Why Google Is Building Its Own Nvidia
Source:TechTaiwan
Google is rapidly expanding its in-house AI chip business, partnering with MediaTek and reshaping its supply chain to reduce reliance on Nvidia while creating new opportunities for Taiwan's semiconductor industry.
Views
Why Google Is Building Its Own Nvidia
By Liang-rong Chenweb only
The biggest event in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry this week was Semicon Taiwan 2026, Asia’s largest semiconductor equipment show, held in Nangang. This year’s event was bigger than ever.
Over the course of just five days, a number of important figures who had rarely, if ever, appeared publicly took the stage, while significant developments that had never previously been disclosed came to light.
With so much happening at once, I decided to break with my usual routine and publish three newsletters in succession after Semicon.
Each will examine Google, MediaTek, and TSMC, respectively, drawing on what senior executives from the three companies revealed across technical forums and keynote speeches—both the major trends they highlighted and the little-known industry dynamics behind them.
The first installment, naturally, focuses on the biggest highlight of the show: the keynote by Amin Vahdat, Google’s SVP and Chief Technologist for AI & Infrastructure, as well as the press conference that followed.
This was Vahdat’s first visit to Taiwan since being promoted to Chief Technologist late last year, putting him in charge of the world’s largest AI infrastructure business.
Dressed in a somewhat ill-fitting suit and speaking with a slightly shy demeanor, Vahdat was a professor of computer science at the University of California, San Diego before joining Google.
That fits with an observation often heard across Taiwan’s supply chain: “Google people talk like university professors.”
But there is nothing academic about the pace of Google’s AI infrastructure buildout. The company’s $91.4 billion in capital spending last year was already staggering—TSMC is spending around $60 billion this year—yet Google’s capex is expected to nearly double this year to almost $200 billion, far above its peers.
Yet Taiwan is largely missing out on these enormous orders for servers, racks, and network switches. Most of the manufacturing is handled by U.S.-based EMS giant Celestica.
Vahdat’s comments at the press conference indirectly confirmed this.
When thanking Taiwan’s supply chain for its support, he mentioned chips—manufactured by TSMC—and cooling systems, but never servers, an area in which Taiwanese manufacturers are particularly strong.
Inside those servers, however, the “Taiwan content” is beginning to surge.
Broadcom had long been the sole partner helping Google design its in-house AI chips, the TPUs. MediaTek, however, has begun taking a share of that business, from the seventh-generation TPU now in mass production to the eighth generation, which splits model training and inference into two separate chips. MediaTek has even secured the “training” version.
Brokerages are optimistic that MediaTek could capture as much as 40% of the TPU market by 2028—successfully transforming itself into one of the world’s leading AI chip design service companies.
That is the main reason MediaTek’s share price has doubled this year—and it has Google to thank.
At the same time, fueled by its rapidly expanding capital spending, Google could even become one of TSMC’s top two customers, putting it on par with Nvidia and surpassing Apple.
In other words, the world’s largest cloud service provider is building an AI chip business from within that could rival Nvidia in scale—and compete fiercely with it—with Vahdat at the helm.
Google is even willing to risk antagonizing TSMC. It has handed the MediaTek version of its eighth-generation TPU to Intel for packaging, in an effort to cultivate an AI chip packaging technology that can break TSMC’s CoWoS monopoly.
Industry sources told me that Google’s AI rack volumes are growing so quickly that Celestica alone can no longer handle the demand.
As a result, a second supplier will join its server and rack assembly operation. But it will not be Foxconn, as previously rumored. Instead, it will be another U.S.-based EMS company, Flex.
The logic is similar to Google’s effort to cultivate Intel’s EMIB-T as an alternative to CoWoS.
Why Does Google Keep Favoring “U.S.-Based” Suppliers?
Taiwanese suppliers such as TSMC, Foxconn, and Quanta have forged deep bonds with Jensen Huang through Nvidia’s rise.
To borrow the half-joking description used by MediaTek CEO Rick Tsai(蔡力行) during a discussion on Wednesday, they are all “goodfellas”—an American Mafia term used in the movie to describe members of the same crew.
Industry sources told me that Google has realized most Taiwanese suppliers will inevitably prioritize Nvidia. That would put Google at a disadvantage in the critical battle for supply-chain resources over the next two years, which is why it has been working to cultivate a “U.S.-based” supply chain.
So at the press conference, where questions could only be submitted in writing, I asked: “The AI supply chain is extremely tight right now. Google’s demand is expected to grow very rapidly over the next two years, but most Taiwanese suppliers prioritize Nvidia. How do you plan to overcome this constraint?”
Following the usual practice at multinational companies of avoiding comments about competitors, however, the moderator stripped out the reference to Nvidia and simply asked Vahdat to discuss “supply-chain constraints.”
……
(To read this exclusive story in full, visit the Tech Taiwan Substack)
Have you read?
- The Red-Free Challenge: Why the US-Taiwan Autonomous Defense Push Faces an Industrial Reality Check
- SEMICON Taiwan 2026: Micron Counters Rivals, Declares AI Still 'Massively Undersupplied'
- Taiwan's "Big Six" Vie for Dominance in Upcoming Quantum Computing Showdown
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