ReutersCodex · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:43:25时区推断·⟳ 抓取 00:51:50·⚡ 决策 07-09 00:52:44 +54s·111.0 天前
美国联邦法官拒绝阻止纽约州对 Kalshi 体育事件合约执行赌博法规
该事件的一阶影响对象是未上市的 Kalshi 和预测市场监管边界，缺少直接可交易主标的。
📄 原文Reuters↗ 原文
A federal judge denied Kalshi's bid to block New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction markets…
不做 Coinbase Global（COIN.US）
本次法院裁定直接对象是未上市 Kalshi，Coinbase 只是另案背景提及，事件合约对 Coinbase 总收入和市值的短期传导过小，不构成可执行交易。
不做 Gemini Space Station（GEMI.US）
本次法院裁定直接对象是 Kalshi，Gemini 只是另案背景提及，缺少公司级收入、利润或监管处罚量化影响，不能同向交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-08 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 该事件的一阶影响对象是未上市的 Kalshi 和预测市场监管边界，缺少直接可交易主标的。
- 文中提到 Coinbase 和 Gemini 是纽约州另案诉讼对象，但事件本身不是针对其核心交易、托管或稳定币业务的新增处罚或禁令。
- 体育事件合约相对 Coinbase、Gemini 的整体业务体量和估值弹性显著偏小，难以形成短周期可回测的同向交易 edge。
主要风险
- 若后续 CFTC 与纽约州诉讼升级为对 Coinbase 或 Gemini 事件合约业务的明确禁令或罚款，才可能重新评估。
- 预测市场监管主题可能影响相关公司叙事，但当前信号不足以量化收入或利润传导。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,526 字
A federal judge denied Kalshi's bid to block New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction markets platform, amid a growing battle between federal and state regulators over authority to police the fast-growing industry.
In a decision on Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan said Kalshi did not deserve a preliminary injunction, because the federal Commodity Exchange Act did not supersede New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts.
Torres also said New York's interests in preventing gambling addiction, preserving sports' integrity and avoiding a proliferation of unregulated contracts "heavily" outweigh Kalshi's interests in ensuring the primacy of federal law and that customers don't face "intractable" technology issues.
"Kalshi has not, therefore, made a clear or substantial showing that it is likely to succeed on the merits," Torres wrote. Other federal courts are divided on the issue, she added.
A lawyer for Kalshi declined to comment. Kalshi appealed Torres' decision to the federal appeals court in Manhattan.
In a joint statement on Wednesday, New York's Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the decision.
"New York’s gambling laws are designed to protect consumers," they said. "We will continue to hold all gambling platforms accountable to the law - and that includes prediction markets.”
CFTC CLAIMS 'EXCLUSIVE' OVERSIGHT
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission rejects New York's view, citing what Chairman Michael Selig has called its "exclusive" jurisdiction over commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket let people wager on the outcome of events such as sports and elections.
They have surged in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when their real-time probabilities proved more accurate than polling in predicting Republican Donald Trump's victory over Democrat Kamala Harris.
Kalshi sued New York last October, after the state's gaming commission ordered it to stop offering unlicensed sports event contracts.
New York filed lawsuits on April 21, accusing Coinbase Financial Markets (COIN.O) and Gemini Titan (GEMI.O) of promoting gambling through their own event contracts.
The CFTC sued New York three days later, and last month said it has challenged similar regulatory activity in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
In a decision on Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan said Kalshi did not deserve a preliminary injunction, because the federal Commodity Exchange Act did not supersede New York's gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts.
Torres also said New York's interests in preventing gambling addiction, preserving sports' integrity and avoiding a proliferation of unregulated contracts "heavily" outweigh Kalshi's interests in ensuring the primacy of federal law and that customers don't face "intractable" technology issues.
"Kalshi has not, therefore, made a clear or substantial showing that it is likely to succeed on the merits," Torres wrote. Other federal courts are divided on the issue, she added.
A lawyer for Kalshi declined to comment. Kalshi appealed Torres' decision to the federal appeals court in Manhattan.
In a joint statement on Wednesday, New York's Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James welcomed the decision.
"New York’s gambling laws are designed to protect consumers," they said. "We will continue to hold all gambling platforms accountable to the law - and that includes prediction markets.”
CFTC CLAIMS 'EXCLUSIVE' OVERSIGHT
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission rejects New York's view, citing what Chairman Michael Selig has called its "exclusive" jurisdiction over commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets.
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket let people wager on the outcome of events such as sports and elections.
They have surged in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when their real-time probabilities proved more accurate than polling in predicting Republican Donald Trump's victory over Democrat Kamala Harris.
Kalshi sued New York last October, after the state's gaming commission ordered it to stop offering unlicensed sports event contracts.
New York filed lawsuits on April 21, accusing Coinbase Financial Markets (COIN.O) and Gemini Titan (GEMI.O) of promoting gambling through their own event contracts.
The CFTC sued New York three days later, and last month said it has challenged similar regulatory activity in Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
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