油轮运价暴涨逾10倍挤压亚欧炼厂利润至负值，美国炼厂与油轮船东分化

TOKYO -- Oil refineries in Asia and Europe are struggling to make a profit despite higher fuel prices due to the surging costs of shipping crude oil.
The refinery margin in Rotterdam, the benchmark gauge for Europe, fell to negative $10.95 per barrel on Oct. 5, according to the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). The Singapore benchmark for Asia dropped past negative $4 on Sept. 10.
The refinery margin represents the difference between petroleum product revenue from refineries and all the costs involved in procuring crude oil, including shipping. During March and April of this year, the margin temporarily fell into negative territory owing to the higher crude prices from the Iran war.
Since then and until recent weeks, refinery margins had generally remained in positive territory. What changed was the sharp rise in tanker freight rates since September on escalating Middle East tensions.
According to the LSEG, shipping rates for very large crude carriers currently hover around $20 to $40 a barrel for routes connecting the Mideast to Asia or Europe, as well as for Africa-to-Europe routes. This is more than 10 times the normal level.
After the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prices of crude oil and petroleum products have surged. In the summer, crude prices eased on an anticipated recovery in supplies, while petroleum product prices rose further.
Those trends have driven up the so-called crack spreads between petroleum product prices and the cost of crude oil alone. The crack spreads for diesel in the U.S. and European markets are currently approaching all-time highs in terms of futures contracts.
But despite that rosy indicator, refineries in Europe and Asia have have felt the squeeze on profit margins. This disconnect is largely the result of higher transport costs.
European refiners have rushed to European crude with its shorter transit times to reduce transport costs. "Brent grades have a $10-$15/bbl cost advantage into Northwest Europe compared to longer-haul crudes, which are still required to meet demand," according to Morgan Stanley.
This shift sent the spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil soaring to a record high of over $154 per barrel in early October, 50% higher than futures prices, most significantly affecting those European refiners that were trying to cut transport costs.
Asian countries, which source crude mainly from the Middle East, are being hit hard by the higher transportation costs. While they are still able to secure crude that arrives through much longer routes, those routes incur massive transport costs.
Margins remain high at U.S. refineries, at over $60 per barrel, as North American pipelines leave them unaffected by such changes in transport costs. Yet with freight rates for tankers that carry diesel and other petroleum products also rising, opportunities for arbitrage are becoming less viable despite lower U.S. refining costs.
"This leaves refiners facing the choice of accepting sharply higher feedstock costs, switching to less optimal crude grades and reducing product yields, or curtailing refinery throughput, which would further tighten markets," according to a report released last week by the International Energy Agency.