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北京时间·🕒 发布 20:46:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 20:47:23·⚡ 决策 07-30 20:57:32 +10m09s·89.2 天前

RADCOM下调2026全年收入指引,客户部署延迟拖累二季度收入

RADCOM(RDCM.US)将2026年收入指引中点从此前约7860万美元下调至6000万美元,降幅约24%,且二季度收入约1200万美元,较一季度1860万美元明显下滑。

📄 原文PR Newswire Technology↗ 原文
RADCOM Announces Preliminary Second Quarter Revenue and Updated Full-Year Guidance
Customer Deployment Delays Driven by Higher Component Costs and Supply Constraints Impact Second Quarter Revenue and Fu…
▼ 做空RADCOMRDCM.US🇺🇸小仓
逾期 · 盘前盘后行情未就绪计划建仓日 07-30(标的市场当地)
10.0012.0014.0007-0809-11
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(做空:价格在入场线下方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑全年收入骤降24%,开盘短空重估
怎么做空 开盘做空 不设价格下限(市价成交)
怎么平空 止盈 -6%(半仓)/-10%(清仓) · 止损 +5% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

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做空 RDCM.US RADCOM

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成交明细 · 纸面

做空 RDCM.US RADCOM

收益状态逾期 盘前盘后行情未就绪
进场成交—
离场成交—
建仓日2026-07-30 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟

收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-28 01:19

研究档案

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-30 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 low ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-05-19 07:00 ET其它RADCOM Q1业绩稿一手源原文 ↗
    此前公司重申2026年收入同比增长8%至12%,中点约7860万美元,构成本次下调的基准。
  2. 2026-07-30 08:46 ET首发PR Newswire/RADCOM一手源原文 ↗
    公司盘前披露二季度收入约1200万美元,并将2026全年收入指引下调至5700万至6300万美元。
    市场反应:RDCM.US行情工具显示截至2026-07-30 12:48 UTC最新价12.72美元,较前收13.08美元跌2.75%。

关键理由

  • RADCOM(RDCM.US)将2026年收入指引中点从此前约7860万美元下调至6000万美元,降幅约24%,且二季度收入约1200万美元,较一季度1860万美元明显下滑。
  • 公司称部署延迟在二季度最后数周显现,并可能继续影响2026年剩余收入确认,属于全年盈利基线重置而非单季度噪音。
  • 高相似先例只有2条但均显示首日冲击明显,网络保障/网络设备类对齐样本3日中位约-7.7%,支持短空但需压仓位和缩短持有期。

主要风险

  • 公司强调没有订单取消或竞争流失,且预计全年仍保持非GAAP盈利,若投资者把问题视为收入确认时点延后而非需求恶化,空头空间会收窄。
  • 高相似先例不足3条,且NTCT 2018显示首日大跌后反弹,若RDCM开盘已一次性跳空过深,后续追空收益会变薄。

反向证据

  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
    内部KB未命中足以抵消本次降指引的近期公司级新增利好。
    检索:RDCM RADCOM recent positive renewal Tier-1 operator RADCOM ACE 2026 cash no debt profitable
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-19 · 影响 weakens
    一季度曾有Tier-1续约、现金无债和非GAAP盈利等正面背景,但这些已被本次全年收入下修部分覆盖。
    检索:RADCOM first quarter 2026 results revenue guidance cash no debt Tier-1 renewal 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-30 · 影响 weakens
    公司称没有取消订单或竞争流失,并预计全年仍非GAAP盈利,说明利空更偏收入时点和增长基线下修而非偿付危机。
    检索:RADCOM preliminary second quarter revenue deployment delays no cancellations competitive losses profitable 2026 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例没有推翻做空方向,但把把握度从7降到6、止盈从8%/14%收至6%/10%、持有期从5天缩至3天。

方向:高相似样本2条方向偏空但胜率仅50%,对齐首发样本整体3日中位-7.65%、胜率40%,支持短空但不是高胜率交易。

涨幅量级:只有2条高相似首发样本,3日中位-7.13%、1日中位-8.91%,样本不足3条,目标位只按保守6%/10%设定。

形态:多个案例显示最强反应在首日跳空,NTCT 2018和MBLY 2024首日大跌后反弹,说明不宜拉长持有和追深开后的空单。

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 9/10 NTCT 2023-10-16 网络/服务保障软件公司盘后预告季度收入低于一致预期并下调全年收入指引,称订单转化放缓、客户延迟项目资金。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -16.6% · +2日 -15.8% · +3日 -17.4% · +4日 -18.9% · +5日 -20.6%
    相似度依据:同为美股网络服务保障软件公司、客户项目/资金延迟导致季度收入低于预期并下修全年收入指引,机制最接近当前RDCM。
    经验:当延迟从单季变成全年指引下修时,市场通常先按增长基线重置而不是按时点延后宽容。
  • 相似度 8/10 NTCT 2018-01-10 网络服务保障公司预告季度结果并大幅下修全年收入和EPS,原因包括运营商资本开支压力、企业销售周期拉长和政府项目延迟。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -1.2% · +2日 +4.8% · +3日 +3.1% · +4日 +1.1% · +5日 +1.9%
    相似度依据:同为网络保障软件、运营商客户推迟采购导致全年指引下修,但当日已大跌,之后反弹,说明追空需要控制时间窗。
    经验:重大降指引最强反应在公告当天,若开盘已大幅跳空,后续空头收益会快速变薄。
  • 相似度 7/10 EXTR 2024-01-08 云网络设备公司盘后下调季度收入预期,称渠道消化、销售周期拉长、多个大单推迟。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -7.4% · +2日 -6.3% · +3日 -7.7% · +4日 -7.4% · +5日 -7.4%
    相似度依据:同为通信网络链条、客户/渠道延迟使收入低于预期,但只更新季度展望,全年基线弱于RDCM。
    经验:项目推迟叠加渠道消化会带来连续数日负收益,但幅度主要由首日跳空贡献。
  • 相似度 6/10 SVCO 2024-10-15 EDA软件公司预告Q3收入并下调全年收入、预订和非GAAP经营利润指引,称亚洲订单下滑和美中贸易压力。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -32.6% · +2日 -35.2% · +3日 -37.7% · +4日 -41.4% · +5日 -41.8%
    相似度依据:同为小型软件公司预告收入并下修全年指引,但贸易与订单下滑比当前客户部署延迟更偏需求恶化。
    经验:新上市/小盘软件股一旦全年收入和预订同时下修,负反馈会延续多日,不能只看首日跌幅。
  • 相似度 6/10 MBLY 2024-01-04 ADAS芯片公司盘前发布初步业绩和2024展望,披露客户有600万至700万颗EyeQ库存并预计Q1收入同比约腰斩。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +1.7% · +2日 +4.9% · +3日 +6.4% · +4日 +2.2% · +5日 +3.5%
    相似度依据:同为客户侧节奏问题触发全年展望重置,但半导体库存周期与RDCM软件部署延迟不同。
    经验:盘前重大下修常在开盘一次性打足,之后反弹并不推翻首日做空方向,但要求短持有。
  • 相似度 5/10 LTRX 2023-01-25 工业IoT公司预告季度收入并更新全年指引,因客户设计变更导致最大合同交付和收入确认推迟到下一财年。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +5.9% · +2日 +6.8% · +3日 +10.0% · +4日 +14.8% · +5日 +12.5%
    相似度依据:同为客户交付推迟和收入确认延后,但公司同步把全年收入指引上调,净影响和当前RDCM不同。
    经验:若降季度收入同时上调全年展望,市场可把延迟视为移期利好,这类不能机械做空。
  • 相似度 5/10 MCHP 2024-01-08 嵌入式芯片公司盘后预告季度收入环比下降约22%,低于原来15%-20%降幅指引,称客户/分销商去库存和延长停工。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 -0.3% · +2日 -0.2% · +3日 +0.1% · +4日 -0.3% · +5日 -0.6%
    相似度依据:客户去库存导致收入低于指引的机制类似,但MCHP规模大、预期已弱且下修幅度小于RDCM全年指引降幅。
    经验:大盘半导体的温和预告下修可能已在周期预期内,不能把它的温和反应套到小盘软件股。
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(6 种)
  • search_processed_events · 结果未知
  • stock_quote · 结果未知
  • kb_search · 结果未知
  • search_case_library · 结果未知
  • validate_order · 结果未知
  • event_study · 结果未知

原文全文

展开原文 · 6,530 字
RADCOM Announces Preliminary Second Quarter Revenue and Updated Full-Year Guidance
Customer Deployment Delays Driven by Higher Component Costs and Supply Constraints Impact Second Quarter Revenue and Full-Year Outlook
Second Quarter Earnings Release Call to be held on August 12
TEL AVIV, Israel, July 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- RADCOM Ltd. (NASDAQ: RDCM) (the "Company") today announced preliminary second quarter revenue expectations and updated its full-year 2026 outlook ahead of its August 12, 2026 earnings release.
Based on preliminary analysis, management currently expects second quarter revenue to be approximately $12 million. This reflects customer deployment delays that have delayed customer purchasing decisions. The Company did not experience cancellations or competitive losses and believes these dynamics reflect timing considerations rather than changes in demand.
"These delays are impacting the purchasing decisions of several of our customers, affecting our second quarter revenue and full year guidance," commented RADCOM's Chief Executive Officer, Benny Eppstein. "These delays became evident during the last few weeks of the quarter, and, based on what we know today, they could continue to affect the timing of revenue through the balance of 2026."
As a result, management is reducing its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $57 - $63 million, with a midpoint of $60 million.
Management expects RADCOM to remain profitable on a non-GAAP basis for full-year 2026, inclusive of these revenue headwinds.
"Demand for our solutions and our relationships with existing customers remain strong," Mr. Eppstein added. "Our focus is on executing against the opportunities in front of us, supporting our existing customers and positioning the Company to return to sustainable growth as customer deployment activity normalizes. We expect to return to double-digit growth in 2027."
Second quarter financial results conference call:
As previously disclosed, RADCOM will release its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, before the opening of the U.S. financial markets. RADCOM will host a conference call and live webcast to discuss the second quarter 2026 financial results on the same day, Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (3:00 p.m. Israel Time). Following formal remarks by RADCOM management, there will be a question-and-answer session.
Conference call details:
Date / Time: Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time / 3:00 p.m. Israel Time
USA Toll-Free: 1-866-652-8972
USA Toll-Free (alternate): 1-800-994-4498
Local Access: 03-9180609
Webcast (live and replay): https://www.veidan-conferencing.com/radcom
An archived replay of the call will be available on the RADCOM website following the live event.
For all investor inquiries, please contact:
Investor Relations:
Rob Fink or Joey Delahoussaye
FNK IR
[email protected]
646-809-4048/312-809-1087
Company Contact:
Hod Cohen
CFO
+972-3-645-5055
[email protected]
About RADCOM
RADCOM (NASDAQ: RDCM) is a leading provider of advanced, intelligent assurance solutions with integrated AI Operations (AIOps) capabilities. Its flagship platform, RADCOM ACE, harnesses AI-driven analytics and generative AI (GenAI) to improve customer experiences. From lab testing to full-scale deployment, RADCOM utilizes cutting-edge networking technologies to capture and analyze real-time data. Its advanced 5G portfolio delivers end-to-end network observability, from the radio access network (RAN) to the core.
Designed to be open, vendor-neutral, and cloud-agnostic, RADCOM's solutions drive next-generation network automation, optimization, and efficiency. By leveraging AI-powered intelligence, RADCOM reduces operational costs, enables predictive customer insights, and seamlessly integrates with business support systems (BSS), operations support systems (OSS), and service management platforms. Offering a complete, real-time view of mobile and fixed networks, RADCOM empowers telecom operators to ensure exceptional service quality, enhance user experiences, and build customer-centric networks.
Risks Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements made herein that use words such as "estimate," "project," "intend," "expect," "believe," "may," "might," "potential," "anticipate," "plan" or similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other securities laws. For example, when the Company discusses its preliminary second quarter 2026 revenue expectations, its updated full-year 2026 revenue outlook and guidance, its expectation of continued Non GAAP profitability for full-year 2026, the expected timing, duration and impact of the customer deployment delays on the timing of revenue through the balance of 2026, its belief that these dynamics reflect timing considerations rather than changes in demand, its expectation of returning to sustainable growth as customer deployment activity normalizes, and its expectation of returning to double-digit growth in 2027, it is using forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results, performance, or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those that may be expressed or implied by such statements, including, among others, changes in general economic and business conditions and, specifically, a decline in demand for the Company's products, delays in customer deployments and purchasing decisions, the risk that the Company's preliminary results differ from its final reported results for the second quarter of 2026, the Company's ability to achieve its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and to return to growth, the inability to timely develop and introduce new technologies, products, and applications, the timing of customer collections and resulting fluctuations in operating cash flow, reliance on a concentrated customer base, loss of market share and pressure on prices resulting from competition, and the effects of the conflict in Israel. For additional information regarding these and other risks and uncertainties associated with the Company's business, reference is made to the Company's reports filed from time to time with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company does not undertake to revise or update any forward-looking statements for any reason.
SOURCE RADCOM Ltd.

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