韩元收报1347.30（仅跌1.40韩元）：8月美国核心CPI 0.3%超预期+沙特东西输油管道遇袭关停推油价破103美元，令美联储9月加息概率升至约86%

Won Weakens to 1,347 as $100 Oil Fuels Fed Rate-Hike Bets - Seoul Economic Daily
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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. AFP/Yonhap News
The Korean won slipped to the upper 1,340s against the dollar as stronger-than-expected U.S. core inflation sharply raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in September, while a supply disruption in the Middle East pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel. Continued foreign selling in Seoul equities added to the pressure on the won.
In the Seoul foreign exchange market on the 14th, the won closed at 1,347.30 per dollar, down 1.40 won from the previous session. The intraday low was 1,347.60 won.
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in August from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier, in line with market forecasts. But core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, gained 0.3% on the month, above the 0.2% expected. Analysts read the figure as a sign that price pressures remain, putting the possibility of further Fed tightening back in focus.
Federal funds futures priced the odds of a September rate increase at about 86%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Market attention has shifted beyond this month's decision to the Fed's messaging and its dot plot, which will signal the scope for additional increases.
The oil shock out of the Middle East also lifted the dollar. Concerns over crude supply intensified after reports that Saudi Arabia had shut down its east-west pipeline, damaged by a drone attack launched from Iraq. The pipeline is a key alternative transport route capable of carrying 7 million barrels a day. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped more than 3% during the session, trading above $103 a barrel.
Should higher oil prices reignite inflation, the Fed may tighten more aggressively than expected. A simultaneous rise in global bond yields and the dollar could put additional downward pressure on the won and other Asian currencies.
Some factors are capping the won's downside, however. Foreign investors sold a net 2.1 trillion won ($1.6 billion) worth of local shares, but steady dollar-selling flows continued to come in, led by semiconductor companies. In the 1,330s, importers and other buyers with actual dollar needs step in to buy on dips, making it difficult for the market to move in one direction.
The yen is another variable. The dollar rose to around 154 yen during the session, but further gains were limited as expectations grew for a rate increase by the Bank of Japan. With U.S. and Japanese monetary authorities pushing back against yen weakness, any strengthening of the yen could partly ease the downward pressure across Asian currencies.
Citi listed five risks that could shake financial markets through the end of the year: a hawkish Fed, rising global bond yields, an unwinding of the yen carry trade, an oil shock and disruptions to European natural gas supplies. The bank said the recent rise in global rates reflects inflation concerns driven by higher energy prices rather than fears of a recession.
Market participants expect the won to hover around the 1,340s for the time being as it searches for direction. The prospect of further Fed increases and rising oil prices and global yields are seen as upside risks for the dollar, while exporters' dollar sales and expectations of a stronger yen are expected to limit the currency pair's gains.
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Original reporting by
Kim Hye-ran
for Seoul Economic Daily.
AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.
Translated by AI on
Sep 14, 2026
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