KB证券下调大熊制药目标价4.8%至20万韩元：Q3营业利润预计低于共识28.7%，但维持买入且拖累项被定性为暂时性

Daewoong Pharmaceutical (069620.KS) is expected to post weak third-quarter prescription drug sales as existing inventory of Fexuclue, its treatment for gastroesophageal reflux disease, is drawn down following the end of its co-promotion deal with Chong Kun Dang. Analysts said the gap between product shipments and prescriptions should close once the shift to direct sales is complete.
KB Securities cut its target price for Daewoong Pharmaceutical to 200,000 won from 210,000 won, a 4.8% reduction, while maintaining a buy rating, in a report on the 14th. The brokerage expects third-quarter revenue on a separate basis of 411.8 billion won and operating profit of 74.7 billion won, up 16% and 39.5% from a year earlier. Those figures are 4.4% and 28.7% below the market consensus of 430.6 billion won in revenue and 104.8 billion won in operating profit.
The target price cut reflects weak sales of ethical, or prescription, drugs and lower full-year earnings estimates. KB Securities expects third-quarter prescription drug sales of 216.8 billion won, down 3.8% from a year earlier. Fexuclue sales in particular are projected at about 3 billion won as new shipments fall while existing inventory is used up.
KB Securities also lowered its full-year revenue forecast for the company to 1.499 trillion won from 1.517 trillion won. It cut its operating profit estimate to 204 billion won from 229 billion won and its net profit estimate to 172 billion won from 183 billion won. "Fexuclue prescription volumes remain solid alongside growth in the P-CAB market, so the gap between shipments and prescriptions should close once the transition to direct sales is complete," the brokerage said.
Over-the-counter drugs and digital healthcare, by contrast, are expected to keep growing in the third quarter. OTC revenue is forecast at 51.4 billion won, up 17.5% from a year earlier, driven by its Ursa liver treatment and health functional foods. Digital healthcare revenue is projected at 17.8 billion won, up 39.1%, including about 7 billion won from Thynk, its monitoring solution for inpatients.
Nabota, the company's botulinum toxin product, is also expected to post record quarterly sales after U.S. partner Evolus moved aggressively to secure supply ahead of tariffs that took effect in September. Third-quarter sales are forecast at 115.5 billion won, up 107.7% from a year earlier.
Because shipments to the U.S. were concentrated through the third quarter, however, exports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. KB Securities estimates Nabota export sales will fall to 28.7 billion won in the fourth quarter from 106.3 billion won in the third. Daewoong Pharmaceutical is expected to offset the shipment gap by expanding in markets outside the U.S., including Brazil, Thailand and Saudi Arabia.
"With Nabota shipments to Evolus concentrated in the second and third quarters, a gap in shipments to the U.S. is likely to persist from the fourth quarter," KB Securities said. "Evolus's guidance and shipping plans will be key to earnings."