日经亚洲综述：日本镜头厂 Tamron（7740.JP）仍在“考虑”Sony 于 7 月底提出的收购要约式提案，同时中期计划与中国销售大跌并存，无新增约束性事实

TOKYO -- Japanese camera lens maker Tamron is considering a recent acquisition proposal by Sony, as its growth potential faces threats from intense competition in China despite the company's high capital efficiency for a midsize manufacturer.
The lens maker announced the proposal on July 30. Sony Group held a 15.35% stake in Tamron as of June, and its proposal appears aimed at bolstering the group's competitiveness by buying Tamron's interchangeable lens business.
Tamron sells its brand of lenses compatible with cameras made by manufacturers including Sony, Canon and Nikon at retailers. It also produces lenses as an original equipment manufacturer for camera makers.
Tamron has expanded market share with its own brand of lenses that are much cheaper than those from camera makers, sometimes 50% less. The company aims to bring at least 10 new products to market this year, up from six in 2025, thanks to efficiency improvements in the development process.
In the first half of the year, the company had the top share for interchangeable camera lenses by volume in Japan, at 22.6%, research specialist BCN reports.
Tamron projects a 9% rise in consolidated net sales for 2026 to 93 billion yen ($600 million), and a 16% increase in net profit to 13.6 billion yen. The lens maker expects return on equity (ROE) to be over 15%.
Among 188 listed Japanese manufacturers with 50 billion to 100 billion yen in sales, only 19 -- including Tamron -- have achieved ROE of more than 10% for the last five consecutive fiscal years.
Tamron's share price has roughly quadrupled since the company was asked by the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2023 to improve capital efficiency. The earnings power and higher shareholder dividends have been well received.
Yet Tamron sees room for further ROE growth and aims to raise the metric to at least 20% in 2029 through a combination of dividends and share buybacks. As of the end of June, the company had 33.4 billion yen in net cash, around 30% of total assets.
The manufacturer aims to boost operating profit to at least 25 billion yen to achieve that goal.
"This seems to be a higher target compared to previous medium-term plans," said Takashi Shimamoto, a senior analyst at Okasan Securities.
Tamron expects to generate total free cash flow of 39 billion yen over the three years through 2029. Based on the medium-term plan, an estimate using discounted cash flow valuation would put the theoretical share price around 1,500 yen, based on capital cost of 7% and perpetual growth of 1%. That would be nearly 10% higher than the 1,395 yen share price as of Monday.
Investors seem to be pricing in a premium for Tamron shares following Sony's proposal, counting on it going through. The theoretical share price was around 30% higher than the actual price of 1,100 yen immediately prior to reports of the proposal coming out, suggesting that the market has likely not fully priced in the growth scenario outlined in the medium-term plan.
Part of the reason for that involves concerns about the Chinese market. In the first half of 2026, sales of Tamron's lenses brand in China declined 43% year-over-year as less expensive products from Chinese manufacturers emerge, such as from Shenzhen Jueying Technology under its Viltrox brand.
Chinese makers are gaining share in their home market, Tamron Director Akira Okabe said during an earnings briefing in August. Sunny Optical Technology and other Chinese companies are a barrier to growth areas such as lenses for automotive applications.
"In China, a business model that relies on recouping profits with interchangeable camera lenses is difficult not only because of [Chinese companies'] technological strengths, but also because of heightened geopolitical risks," said Ryosuke Katsura of SMBC Nikko Securities.