The Elec EnglishDoubao · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:已被定价
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:28:07(首尔 16:28)时区推断·⟳ 抓取 15:28:46·⚡ 决策 10-12 15:31:57 +3m11s·15.2 天前
Kakao Games新作《Goblins World（도깨비의세계）》上线4天跻身韩国两大应用商店营收前三，但低 monetization 模式与连续8季亏损令变现前景存疑
新作上榜属公司10月12日官方确认的正面催化，但韩国股市10月12日盘中已上涨3.96%，且10月11日Inven已先行报道营收第2，排名利好已被部分消化；该作刻意采用低付费模式，营收排名与实际流水和利润之间存在未经验证的缺口，公司仍处连续8季亏损、Q3预计继续大亏，当前韩国市场已收盘，次日开盘追高的风险收益比不佳。
📄 原文The Elec English↗ 原文
Kakao Games’ ‘Goblins World’ Ranks Top 3 on App Stores as Loss-Making Streak Continues
< IT·Gaming < 기사본문 - The Elec Inc. 이전 기사보기 다음 기사보기 Kakao Games’ ‘Goblins World’ Ranks Top 3 on App Stores as Loss-Maki…
不做 Kakao Games（293490.KQ）
营收榜排名利好10月11日已被Inven报道，10月12日官方通稿当日股价已涨3.96%并被部分定价；低付费模式下排名到实际收入的弹性未验证，公司Q3仍预计大亏245亿至318亿韩元；韩国已收盘，次日开盘追高缺口风险大且无对齐先例支撑幅度，等待Q4流水或排名持续性数据后再右侧评估。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
Goblins World上线4天冲上韩国双平台营收前三，是Kakao Games扭亏叙事的关键早期验证；但低付费模式使排名含金量待验证，消息已被官方发稿且当日股价反应+3.96%，盘后无入场窗口、次日追高edge不足，故不做。
消息传播链
- 节点
关键理由
- 新作首周即登Google Play营收第2、用户扩容至增设服务器，验证早期获客与留存，构成公司扭亏叙事的边际正面增量。
- 若排名持续至Q4流水确认，可能上修公司2027Q1扭亏预期，是后续可跟踪的右侧催化。
主要风险
- 游戏采用战令和会员低付费模式，营收榜排名与实际净收入可能错配，且首周MMORPG排名常见上线后快速回落。
- 公司连续8季亏损、现金低于流动负债2271亿韩元，若新作流水不及预期，扭亏指引与收购扩张将同时受质疑。
反向证据
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例缺失叠加当日已部分定价与低付费模式不确定性，支持放弃次日开盘追高并作AVOID处理。
方向:未形成可用对齐先例：本轮未检索到足够同市场、同相位，即韩国游戏商新作上线初期营收榜排名、盘后媒体复盘，并且锚定首发的先例面板。
涨幅量级:先例不足，无法用对齐先例校准次日开盘追高的涨幅与回撤幅度。
形态:仅观察到本标的自身节奏：10月8日上线日股价下跌6.43%，10月9日至10日继续走弱，10月11日至12日随营收排名反弹；样本不足以外推。
工具执行结果 · 成功 3 · 降级 0 · 失败 1 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 12 ms
{"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`kakao games 293490 goblins world launch october 2026 | kakao games goblins world app store ranking | 카카오게임즈 고블린 월드 매출 순위`；结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时；旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整)，返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选，不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复；按当前事件继续正常研判。"} - stock_quote 失败 stock_tools HTTP · 8 ms
行情服务暂不可用；本次无法核验该标的价格和可执行条件。请基于其余证据继续判断并明确标注行情降级；不得仅因工具故障自动给出 AVOID 或 ENTER，也不得编造价位。 - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,618 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:카카오게임즈 고블린 월드 매출 2위 주가 반응；API SearchType:web） - web_search 成功 doubao_search · 2,509 ms
豆包搜索结果（原始查询:Kakao Games Goblins World revenue ranking stock 293490；API SearchType:web）
原文全文
展开原文 · 4,232 字
Kakao Games’ ‘Goblins World’ Ranks Top 3 on App Stores as Loss-Making Streak Continues < IT·Gaming < 기사본문 - The Elec Inc.
이전 기사보기
다음 기사보기
Kakao Games’ ‘Goblins World’ Ranks Top 3 on App Stores as Loss-Making Streak Continues
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스크롤 이동 상태바
Kakao Games’ new title Goblins World ranks among the top revenue-generating games on South Korea’s two major app marketplaces. (Source: Mobile Index)
Kakao Games’ new MMORPG title Goblins World has reached the top ranks on South Korea’s two major app marketplaces. The company, which has posted operating losses for eight consecutive quarters, is counting on new releases to drive a financial turnaround.
According to Mobile Index on Oct. 12, Goblins World ranked second on Google Play and third on Apple’s App Store in revenue.
Released on Oct. 8, the game quickly reached No. 2 on Apple's App Store before climbing to second place on Google Play on Oct. 11. Kakao Games added a new server on Oct. 10 to accommodate an increasing number of users.
Goblins World is a 2.5D game inspired by traditional Korean goblins (dokkaebi). Its key features include pixel-art graphics and strategic combinations of supernatural abilities. The game adopts a low-monetization model that excludes progression stats from costumes and mounts, allowing users to play without spending money.
Industry observers attribute the game's early success to its lower monetization burden. Goblins World centers its revenue model on battle passes and memberships while restricting player-killing (PK) in open fields to reduce user competition.
Kakao Games noted that users have reacted positively to the limited spending requirements, adding that lower competitive pressure contributed to early user acquisition.
◇Eight Consecutive Quarters of Losses Expected, Making New Hits Critical
Kakao Games recorded 157.9 billion won in consolidated revenue and an operating loss of 48.5 billion won in the first half of this year. Revenue fell 33% year-over-year, while operating losses widened.
The company is expected to remain in the red for the third quarter. Securities market consensus projects third-quarter revenue of 79.1 billion won and an operating loss of 24.5 billion won, down 38% from the previous year.
Eugene Investment & Securities offered a more pessimistic outlook, forecasting third-quarter revenue of 69.7 billion won and an operating loss of 31.8 billion won.
Revenue from Goblins World is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter. During its August earnings call, Kakao Games projected that its performance would bottom out in the second or third quarter before returning to profitability in the first quarter of next year, with Goblins World serving as a key driver.
Kakao Games is also seeking growth through M&A. Last month, the company decided to acquire a 39.56% stake in South Korean game developer ME2ON for approximately 98 billion won. Upon completion in November, Kakao Games will enter the social casino market, leveraging ME2ON's previous year performance of 120.9 billion won in revenue and 12.6 billion won in operating profit.
Starting with the ME2ON acquisition, Kakao Games plans to pursue additional investments in small and midsize developers with proven profitability.
At the August earnings call, Co-CEO Han Sang-woo stated that the company is evaluating over 10 investment and M&A opportunities in Korea and overseas, prioritizing studios with established track records. He noted that the company will initially focus on deals valued in the tens of billions of won, gradually expanding deal sizes based on financial capacity.
As of the end of June, Kakao Games held 720.1 billion won in consolidated cash and cash equivalents, compared to 947.2 billion won in current liabilities—leaving cash reserves 227.1 billion won below current obligations amid aggressive expansion plans.
kimsungjin
harang@thelec.kr
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이전 기사보기
다음 기사보기
Kakao Games’ ‘Goblins World’ Ranks Top 3 on App Stores as Loss-Making Streak Continues
가
가
The body content of the article will be changed to this letter size.
스크롤 이동 상태바
Kakao Games’ new title Goblins World ranks among the top revenue-generating games on South Korea’s two major app marketplaces. (Source: Mobile Index)
Kakao Games’ new MMORPG title Goblins World has reached the top ranks on South Korea’s two major app marketplaces. The company, which has posted operating losses for eight consecutive quarters, is counting on new releases to drive a financial turnaround.
According to Mobile Index on Oct. 12, Goblins World ranked second on Google Play and third on Apple’s App Store in revenue.
Released on Oct. 8, the game quickly reached No. 2 on Apple's App Store before climbing to second place on Google Play on Oct. 11. Kakao Games added a new server on Oct. 10 to accommodate an increasing number of users.
Goblins World is a 2.5D game inspired by traditional Korean goblins (dokkaebi). Its key features include pixel-art graphics and strategic combinations of supernatural abilities. The game adopts a low-monetization model that excludes progression stats from costumes and mounts, allowing users to play without spending money.
Industry observers attribute the game's early success to its lower monetization burden. Goblins World centers its revenue model on battle passes and memberships while restricting player-killing (PK) in open fields to reduce user competition.
Kakao Games noted that users have reacted positively to the limited spending requirements, adding that lower competitive pressure contributed to early user acquisition.
◇Eight Consecutive Quarters of Losses Expected, Making New Hits Critical
Kakao Games recorded 157.9 billion won in consolidated revenue and an operating loss of 48.5 billion won in the first half of this year. Revenue fell 33% year-over-year, while operating losses widened.
The company is expected to remain in the red for the third quarter. Securities market consensus projects third-quarter revenue of 79.1 billion won and an operating loss of 24.5 billion won, down 38% from the previous year.
Eugene Investment & Securities offered a more pessimistic outlook, forecasting third-quarter revenue of 69.7 billion won and an operating loss of 31.8 billion won.
Revenue from Goblins World is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter. During its August earnings call, Kakao Games projected that its performance would bottom out in the second or third quarter before returning to profitability in the first quarter of next year, with Goblins World serving as a key driver.
Kakao Games is also seeking growth through M&A. Last month, the company decided to acquire a 39.56% stake in South Korean game developer ME2ON for approximately 98 billion won. Upon completion in November, Kakao Games will enter the social casino market, leveraging ME2ON's previous year performance of 120.9 billion won in revenue and 12.6 billion won in operating profit.
Starting with the ME2ON acquisition, Kakao Games plans to pursue additional investments in small and midsize developers with proven profitability.
At the August earnings call, Co-CEO Han Sang-woo stated that the company is evaluating over 10 investment and M&A opportunities in Korea and overseas, prioritizing studios with established track records. He noted that the company will initially focus on deals valued in the tens of billions of won, gradually expanding deal sizes based on financial capacity.
As of the end of June, Kakao Games held 720.1 billion won in consolidated cash and cash equivalents, compared to 947.2 billion won in current liabilities—leaving cash reserves 227.1 billion won below current obligations amid aggressive expansion plans.
kimsungjin
harang@thelec.kr
View other news
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