卢拉第四任期当选后巴西资产全线崩盘：EWZ暴跌约19.6%，雷亚尔期货跌约10%

▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: "AI PRISM" (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issues Briefing]
■ Brazil shock: Brazilian assets collapsed across the board after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva pulled off a come-from-behind victory in the presidential runoff. Investors who had bet on a change of government unwound positions quickly, sending the real, stocks and exchange-traded funds down together. Market attention is now turning to sovereign debt and the government's capacity to manage fiscal soundness.
■ Memory payouts: SK hynix (000660) is preparing an extra-large shareholder return package that includes the first special dividend in the company's history. With record earnings expected but the share price moving in the opposite direction, the plan is aimed at easing shareholder frustration and lifting corporate value. Cash piled up during the memory boom is also spilling over into buying in the bond market.
■ Stock market chill: With the KOSPI down nearly 40% from its high for the year, brokerages have cut their year-end forecasts one after another. Trading value and investor deposits have also fallen to their lowest levels of the year, leaving no buyers to support the index. On top of that, the won-dollar exchange rate has swung the most in 11 years, increasing the burden on companies managing currency risk.
[News of Interest to Financial Product Investors]
1. They Bet on a Lula Defeat — Then the Brazil ETF Fell 19%
- Key points: Immediately after Lula secured a fourth term, overseas financial markets were hit by massive selling of Brazilian assets. November futures on the real traded on the CME in the U.S. fell about 10% during Asian trading hours, and a Bovespa-linked ETF run by Nomura Asset Management and listed in Japan dropped as much as 16% intraday, its steepest decline since 2020. In New York after-hours trading, PagSeguro fell 19.49% and investment platform XP fell 19.47%, with all 20 Brazilian corporate stocks and American depositary receipts declining. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) also fell about 19.6%. The moves came as investors who had bet on a win by Flavio Bolsonaro, who campaigned on spending cuts and privatization, closed out their positions. The market's biggest concern is fiscal soundness, with sovereign debt exceeding 82% of gross domestic product.
2. SK hynix Targets 80 Trillion Won in Q3 Operating Profit, Plans First Large Special Dividend
- Key points: SK hynix is moving to include the first special dividend in its history in the additional shareholder return plan it will announce on the 28th. About 20 trillion won in gains from selling its stake in Japan's Kioxia, in which it participated as an early investor, is also under review as a funding source, an amount far exceeding last year's total dividend payout of 2.1 trillion won. With brokerages projecting free cash flow of 140 trillion to 240 trillion won this year, the return package could reach 70 trillion to 120 trillion won. Operating profit jumped to 37.6103 trillion won in the first quarter and 60.5426 trillion won in the second, but the share price slid from 2.919 million won on June 22 to 1.275 million won on the day, leaving market capitalization at 935 trillion won.
3. They Said KOSPI Would Top 10,000 — Now Brokerages Are Cutting Forecasts
- Key points: The KOSPI closed at 5,469.47 on the 26th, down 80.83 points, or 1.46%, from the previous session and its lowest level in about seven months. Daishin Securities (003540) put its fourth-quarter range at 5,200 to 6,700 points, and DB Securities (016610) at 5,000 to 7,300 points. Samsung Securities (016360) lowered the top of its range to 8,400 points from 12,600, and Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month target to 9,000 from 12,000, a reduction of 25%. Compared with the year's closing high of 9,114.55 on June 22, the close on the day was down 40%. Trading value that day was 12.0108 trillion won, the lowest of the year, and foreign investors sold a net 697.2 billion won worth of shares during regular trading hours.
[Reference News for Financial Product Investors]
4. "700 Applicants for One Fund Management Job" — SK hynix Returns as a Bond Market Heavyweight
- Key points: SK hynix has filled a three-month gap in its bond purchases, buying credit card and specialized credit finance company bonds as well as public corporation bonds including those of Korea Electric Power. After hiring a team head from the Korea Investment Corporation (KIC), the company reportedly drew more than 700 applicants for a single working-level position. It had earlier selected six firms — NH-Amundi, Shinhan, Woori, Mirae, Korea Investment and KB Asset Management — as outside managers, entrusting 500 billion won to each, with funds flowing mainly into bonds rated AA0 or higher. It completed the purchase of 24.07 million treasury shares worth 40.0434 trillion won on the 21st of this month, but its cash and cash equivalents stood at 87.9579 trillion won as of the first half, up 152% from the end of last year.
5. Net Profit at Major U.S. Companies Seen Up 30% as CoreWeave-Driven AI Investment Worries Ease
- Key points: The Wall Street Journal, citing FactSet data, reported that third-quarter net profit at S&P 500 companies is expected to rise 29.2% from a year earlier. However, 34% of the total profit increase is accounted for by just two companies, Nvidia and Micron. Micron last month posted quarterly net profit more than 10 times higher than a year earlier, and Nvidia's net profit is expected to surge 90%. Meanwhile, Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy said the company's artificial intelligence cloud capacity is largely sold out through 2027, part of a broader reassessment of big tech firms with wide customer bases.
6. From 1,561 Won to 1,321 Won: Exchange Rate Swings Widest in 11 Years
- Key points: Between Jan. 8 and Oct. 23 this year, the won-dollar exchange rate's intraday high was 1,561.5 won on June 5 and its intraday low was 1,321.2 won on Oct. 22, a gap of 240.3 won between the high and the low. The average daily intraday trading range was 14.1 won, about 22% wider than last year's 11.6 won, and annualized volatility was 10.1%, the highest since 2015. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song, speaking at a Monetary Policy Board press briefing on the 22nd, described the high exchange rate in early summer this year as having had considerable abnormal elements. Hyundai Motor (005380) estimates that a 10-won move in the exchange rate shifts annual operating profit by roughly 200 billion to 300 billion won, underscoring the growing burden on exporters managing currency risk.
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