三星生物Q3业绩料符合预期，配股风险缓解但10月26日或启动三周罢工成关键变量

Samsung Biologics (207940) is expected to post third-quarter results in line with market expectations, with a labor dispute seen as the near-term variable that will determine the direction of its shares.
Korea Investment & Securities estimated on the 14th in a report titled "Samsung Biologics: Noise and Signal" that the company's third-quarter revenue rose 9% from a year earlier to 1.3728 trillion won. Operating profit was projected to fall 2% to 617.8 billion won, with an operating margin of 45%. Both revenue and operating profit are in line with the consensus estimate.
The brokerage said Samsung Biologics will maintain its growth despite the impact of the second-quarter strike and a weaker dollar. Plants No. 1 through No. 4 are running at full capacity, while revenue recognition has begun at the fifth plant and the U.S. facility. The fifth plant is estimated to book 28.3 billion won as revenue from process performance qualification (PPQ) batches, the stage immediately before commercial production, is reflected. Revenue from the U.S. plant was projected at 100 billion won. The U.S. facility is generating profit at around the break-even point based on a 50% utilization rate, and its profitability is expected to improve as it wins additional orders and raises utilization.
Still, Samsung Biologics shares are down 27% from the start of the year. Wi Hae-joo, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, pointed to "the rights offering and the labor dispute, in addition to macro factors, as the main reasons for the decline," while adding that "with reports after the market close the previous day that the tender offer acceptance rate came in at 87.88%, the rationale for the rights offering has been secured and the related risk may ease."
The remaining variable is the labor dispute. The union has given notice of a second strike lasting three weeks from the 26th of this month. Samsung Biologics lost about 150 billion won in revenue because of a five-day strike in May. Given that, analysts say a three-week walkout could have a considerable impact on earnings in the first quarter of next year.
Contract manufacturing organization deals in particular run for several years, making supply chain stability and labor relations key criteria for potential customers. "Whether labor and management reach an agreement by the end of this month will be the main variable," Wi said.
The medium- to long-term growth signals remain intact, according to the report. Earnings releases from peer companies confirmed that demand for biopharmaceutical contract manufacturing is still solid. In addition, price competitiveness could improve now that the U.S. pharmaceutical tariff rate has been set at 15%. If the list of Chinese biotech companies covered by the Biosecure Act is detailed in mid-December, the company could also benefit indirectly in terms of order wins. "We recommend approaching the stock while watching whether the short-term noise is resolved," Wi said.