日银两名鹰派委员加强加息呼吁，市场已高度预期9月加息

TOKYO -- Two hawks on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy board are calling more strongly for the central bank to accelerate its interest rate increases, pushing it to do more to rein in inflation before their terms end next July.
In a speech Wednesday in Sapporo, Hajime Takata said that "2026 represents the start of a new phase, in which rate hikes will not be carried out at a fixed pace but will instead be conducted in a nimble manner."
This contrasts with a February speech in which he said he considered the BOJ to be "in the process of gradually shifting gears." In a postspeech news conference Wednesday, he attributed the difference to significant changes over the past six months.
Takata cited overseas shifts as the main reason for his more hawkish tone, noting that other central banks have pivoted to raising interest rates in response to growing global investment in artificial intelligence and fiscal spending. "It's possible that consecutive [rate hikes] could become the mainstream view," he said.
Naoki Tamura, meanwhile, spoke in concrete terms about the pace of future rate hikes for the first time in June.
"What I envisage as a baseline path is raising the policy interest rate by 0.25 percentage point at intervals of a few months toward the neutral interest rate level of 2%," he said. The BOJ has raised rates about once every six months since ending its negative-rates policy in March 2024.
Takata and Tamura share the view that the target of stable 2% inflation set by the BOJ in 2013 has already been achieved. They argue that real interest rates remain low compared with the U.S. and Europe, and they warn of upside risks to prices from such shocks as surging oil prices. In their view, if the policy rate is not raised soon, it could hurt the economy.
Both are likely also conscious of the end of their terms on the board next July. Market watchers are concerned that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government will replace them with voices favoring looser monetary policy.
When Junko Nakagawa, who was considered neutral, left the board in June, she was succeeded by Ayano Sato, who lectured for a parliamentary group advocating "responsible, proactive fiscal policy."
Asked about his remaining tenure Wednesday, Takata said that "this is a significant turning point with both internal and external regimes changing, and also a very difficult situation, so I want to consider how we can [conduct monetary policy] more appropriately."
In his June speech, Tamura said he considered it the BOJ's mission to serve as the "guardian of price stability." Whether this was said with his successor in mind is unclear -- but with a year left on the board, he likely wanted to make his own stance clear.
While the central bank's monetary policy meeting this past July was held on the 30th and the 31st, the 2027 schedule puts the July meeting on the 21st and the 22nd -- just before the terms of Takata and Tamura end on the 23rd.
When new members join the board, the policy meeting schedule is customarily left clear for about a month so that they are not immediately involved in policy decisions. Market players have speculated that the two departing members want to do all they can to see rate hikes through by then.
With U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also making repeated comments encouraging the BOJ to raise interest rates, markets have priced in a 90%-plus chance of a hike at this month's meeting, likely from 1% to 1.25%.
While markets generally agree that further rate hikes are needed to curb inflation and address yen weakness and rising yields, there is no consensus about how far the BOJ should ultimately go.
With long-term interest rates hitting 3% for the first time in about 30 years, it is increasingly difficult to make predictions about Japan's financial and economic outlooks. The side effects of rate hikes are also becoming more apparent.
As discussion grows over the eventual destination of monetary policy normalization, differences of opinion among policy board members are likely to surface more frequently.