日经复盘：资金从AI半导体轮动至游戏IP股，万代南梦宫创历史新高

TOKYO -- Japanese entertainment company Bandai Namco Holdings is on a market hot streak that underscores investor skepticism toward stocks tied to artificial intelligence.
Bandai Namco stock reached an all-time high in the Tokyo market on Wednesday, closing at 6,427 yen. In contrast, the larger Nikkei Stock Average has remained stagnant since July due to doubts over the sustainability of AI investments.
"Stocks that generate steady profits are relatively more attractive than semiconductor stocks, which may or may not grow by 20-30% or more" in terms of annual profits, said Masamitsu Ohki, chief investment officer at Fivestar Asset Management.
Gaming stocks are considered particularly promising due to strong growth potential. Bandai Namco shares have been on an upswing since July.
The group has been wielding its vast library of intellectual property to develop multiple business lines, including toys, video games and animation, that have contributed to earnings.
Shares at rival Konami Group also climbed to heights not seen in roughly 11 months. Sony Group approached a nine-month high as well.
"Now that the AI infrastructure market has calmed down for the time being, we look to hold entertainment and gaming stocks to solidify defenses," said Tomonobu Sekiguchi, fund manager at Asset Management One.
Games and other Japanese IP are supported by a broad fanbase that has been built up over decades, so "the source of earnings is not something that will disappear overnight," said Sekiguchi.
Gaming stocks are essentially the flip side of AI stocks. The 60-day correlation coefficient between the Nikkei Semiconductor Stock Index and the Nikkei Japan Entertainment Content Stock Index turned negative in June and has remained below negative 0.3 since mid-July.
In other words, there is an inverse relationship where game stocks are bought while semiconductor stocks are sold.
Gaming companies are shifting from a structure where profits fluctuate greatly depending on the success of blockbuster games to one where they can earn a stable income through IP.
For six gaming companies included in the Nikkei average, the fluctuation of year-on-year changes to operating profit has decreased over the past decade or so. The average standard deviation stood at 57% for the 2014-2017 period, but it has shrunk to 23% in 2022-2025.
At Capcom, operating profit reached about half the full-year projection during the April-June quarter. This was thanks to the success of its new Pragmata franchise and the release of Resident Evil Requiem.
Capcom's live-action film "Street Fighter," an adaptation of the game, was released worldwide Friday, topping the box office in North America on its opening weekend.
Konami saw growth in its eFootball soccer game thanks to in-game campaigns coinciding with the World Cup. Before the tournament, eFootball had already surpassed 1 billion downloads worldwide by April.
While there were concerns that AI would take over game development and take away business from game companies, those worries have eased for the time being. However, gaming developers are unlikely to see cost reductions from AI in the near term.
"Even if costs are reduced somewhat, the impact will be small given the higher development costs," said Hideki Yasuda, senior analyst at Toyo Research Advice.
The higher memory prices remain a trouble spot for the gaming industry. While equity values have begun to factor in an anticipated decline in memory prices, it will still take time before memory prices actually fall.
As long as the AI-dominated market continues, there will be some degree of headwinds for gaming stocks. Gaming stocks have lagged behind semiconductor stocks in terms of year-to-date price increases. But the price-earning ratios of gaming equities have already reached between 20 and 30.