ReutersCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 17:10:35时区推断·⟳ 抓取 20:10:33·⚡ 决策 07-22 22:06:22 +1h55m·96.9 天前
Naturgy上半年业绩稳健并小幅上调全年盈利预期，股价盘中已上涨约4.5%
Naturgy上半年EBITDA同比增长4.5%至29.8亿欧元，全年EBITDA指引上调至超过55亿欧元，净利润指引超过21亿欧元。
📄 原文Reuters↗ 原文
Spanish gas and power utility Naturgy (NTGY.MC) said on Wednesday it expects full-year core profit to climb at least 3…
不做 Naturgy（NTGY.ES）
财报/指引利好已在欧洲盘中上涨约4.5%反应，且净利润仅略高于部分预期，追多缺少剩余edge，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-22 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- Naturgy上半年EBITDA同比增长4.5%至29.8亿欧元，全年EBITDA指引上调至超过55亿欧元，净利润指引超过21亿欧元。
- 增长主要来自受监管配电网络业务，能源市场业务仍受西班牙供应利润率走弱和澳洲PPA负面盯市拖累。
- Reuters正文已给出股价在欧洲盘中上涨4.5%，说明业绩与指引提升已被当场重定价。
主要风险
- 这是财报/指引类明牌披露，且正文显示股价已明显反应，盘中追多容易变成追已兑现预期。
- 全年净利润只是略高于部分分析师预期，缺少足以支持继续追价的强超预期幅度。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,557 字
Spanish gas and power utility Naturgy (NTGY.MC) said on Wednesday it expects full-year core profit to climb at least 3%, after growth for its regulated distribution networks division helped offset pressure in parts of its energy markets business.
Its shares were up 4.5% by 1034 GMT.
It now expects to book earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of more than €5.5 billion ($6.3 billion) for the year, after EBITDA rose by 4.5% to €2.98 billion in the first half.
A 13.2% jump in EBITDA for the company's distribution networks division was helped by higher regulated remuneration in Spanish electricity distribution and tariff updates in Latin America.
"Distribution networks businesses once again demonstrated (their) role as a stable and resilient contributor to group earnings in 1H26, supported by regulatory stability, solid demand dynamics across geographies and disciplined cost management," Naturgy said.
However, core profit in its energy markets business fell by 2.4% to €1.49 billion, as weaker Spanish supply margins and negative mark-to-market effects on Australian power purchase agreements outweighed stronger thermal generation in Spain.
The outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran at the end of February disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher energy prices. They remain elevated as the conflict has widened in the Gulf and traffic through the strait has ground to a near standstill.
LONG-TERM SUPPLY FROM US
The company reported first-half net income of €1.22 billion — up 5.9% from a year earlier — and said it expects this year's net income to be above €2.1 billion, which was slightly above some analyst expectations.
It added that the EU ban on long-term LNG supply from Russia from 2027 will not result in a gas shortfall for Naturgy as it has sufficient long-term supply from the United States with flexibility on destinations to cover its committed sales.
Steven Fernández, global head of financial markets and corporate development at Naturgy, said the ban was designed in a market of abundance before the Iran war started.
"Now, we are facing a very different reality... there is low storage and an already tight LNG market. A cold winter, for example, as we have seen in recent years, could risk shortages by February 2027. Planning must be made now ahead of the winter," he said.
Naturgy also said it would pay a first 2026 interim dividend of €0.6 per share in cash on July 29, in line with last year's.
($1 = 0.8765 euros)
Its shares were up 4.5% by 1034 GMT.
It now expects to book earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of more than €5.5 billion ($6.3 billion) for the year, after EBITDA rose by 4.5% to €2.98 billion in the first half.
A 13.2% jump in EBITDA for the company's distribution networks division was helped by higher regulated remuneration in Spanish electricity distribution and tariff updates in Latin America.
"Distribution networks businesses once again demonstrated (their) role as a stable and resilient contributor to group earnings in 1H26, supported by regulatory stability, solid demand dynamics across geographies and disciplined cost management," Naturgy said.
However, core profit in its energy markets business fell by 2.4% to €1.49 billion, as weaker Spanish supply margins and negative mark-to-market effects on Australian power purchase agreements outweighed stronger thermal generation in Spain.
The outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran at the end of February disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher energy prices. They remain elevated as the conflict has widened in the Gulf and traffic through the strait has ground to a near standstill.
LONG-TERM SUPPLY FROM US
The company reported first-half net income of €1.22 billion — up 5.9% from a year earlier — and said it expects this year's net income to be above €2.1 billion, which was slightly above some analyst expectations.
It added that the EU ban on long-term LNG supply from Russia from 2027 will not result in a gas shortfall for Naturgy as it has sufficient long-term supply from the United States with flexibility on destinations to cover its committed sales.
Steven Fernández, global head of financial markets and corporate development at Naturgy, said the ban was designed in a market of abundance before the Iran war started.
"Now, we are facing a very different reality... there is low storage and an already tight LNG market. A cold winter, for example, as we have seen in recent years, could risk shortages by February 2027. Planning must be made now ahead of the winter," he said.
Naturgy also said it would pay a first 2026 interim dividend of €0.6 per share in cash on July 29, in line with last year's.
($1 = 0.8765 euros)
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。