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Nikkei Asia BusinessCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 17:30:25·⚡ 决策 09-08 17:57:34 +27m09s·48.9 天前

台积电、三星、Intel 表态采用 ASML High NA EUV 并推进 12 英寸光罩生态

事件方向正面但主要验证 ASML High NA EUV 的长期采用路线,缺少新增订单金额、台数、指引上修或短期业绩量化增量;ASML 超大市值下软催化难以形成足够短线正期望。

📄 原文Nikkei Asia Business↗ 原文
TSMC, Intel and Samsung all bet on ASML's latest chip tool in AI race
TAIPEI -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said on Tuesday that it will begin using the world's most advanced chi…
不做 ASML Holding(ASML.US)
路线确认偏利好但无新增订单台数、收入指引或短期业绩量化,超大市值主标的短线 edge 不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Nikkei 与公司/通讯社转述均指向三大先进制程厂商支持 ASML High NA EUV 和 12 英寸光罩生态,这是对 ASML 技术路线的正面确认;但三星 2028、台积电 2030、光罩生态 2031-2033 的时间轴偏长,且未给出新增采购台数或收入确认节奏,短线可交易增量不足,因此回避。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-08 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-09-08官方确认Samsung Global Newsroom原文 ↗
    三星与 ASML 官方确认扩大合作,三星计划 2028 年将 High NA EUV 用于未来 DRAM 大规模制造。
  2. 2026-09-08 17:06 Asia/Taipei财经媒体扩散Focus Taiwan非一手原文 ↗
    Focus Taiwan 报道台积电与 ASML 合作推进 12 英寸 EUV 光罩,台积电计划 2030 年开始用于先进制程量产。
  3. 2026-09-08财经媒体扩散Reuters/Euronext Live非一手原文 ↗
    Reuters 转述 ASML 将与主要芯片制造商推进更大光罩,称 12 英寸光罩可提高 High NA 系统生产率约 40%。

关键理由

  • ASML 是 High NA EUV 独家供应商,三大先进芯片厂商共同表态降低了技术路线被客户放弃的担忧。
  • 单台 High NA EUV 价格最高约 3.5 亿欧元,若后续转化为明确订单将对 ASML backlog 和收入质量有正面意义。
  • 当前事件没有披露新增台数或指引修正,更多是 2028-2033 年路线确认而非近期业绩催化。

主要风险

  • High NA EUV 设备昂贵且导入节奏长,客户表态不等于短期采购或量产收益兑现。
  • Reuters 转述显示相关技术计划已由多源扩散,ASML 和亚洲半导体链可能已有 AI/先进制程预期定价。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-08 · 影响 weakens
    Nikkei 正文称台积电高管此前认为增强版工具成本过高,本次虽缓解担忧但不能证明短期广泛采购。
    检索:ASML High NA EUV adoption too expensive customer delay TSMC Samsung Intel 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-08 · 影响 weakens
    Reuters 转述显示 12 英寸光罩试点线和高量产准备目标在 2031-2033 年,兑现周期偏长。
    检索:Reuters ASML high NA larger masks production 2031 2033 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足使本次不设 tp/sl,结合缺少订单金额与长周期兑现,最终选择 AVOID。

方向:缺少同市场、同机制、同量级且首发锚点干净的短线先例;只能定性判断路线确认偏正面。

涨幅量级:未能用高相似先例校准 ASML 短线幅度,因为本次不是明确订单或财务指引事件。

形态:长期技术路线和生态合作公告容易被市场视为已有预期的一部分,存在见光后缺乏持续买盘的风险。

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原文全文

展开原文 · 4,838 字
TAIPEI -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said on Tuesday that it will begin using the world's most advanced chipmaking tool made by ASML from 2030, while Samsung Electronics is targeting adoption as early as 2028 and Intel said it is already mass producing with the new machine.
The moves by the world's three leading chipmakers come as the race to produce ever more powerful artificial intelligence computing chips continues to heat up.
The high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet lithography machine is built exclusively by ASML of the Netherlands. As the successor to standard EUV lithography machines, high NA EUV allows chipmakers to print even tinier patterns and circuit designs, paving the way for more powerful and energy-efficient chips.
Standard EUV lithography machines are already used by top chipmakers to produce chips at or beyond 7-nanometer grade. Generally, the smaller the nanometer size, the more advanced, powerful and complex the chips are.
The high NA EUV lithography machine is the world's most expensive chipmaking equipment, carrying a price tag as high as 350 million euros ($407 million). That is more than double the standard EUV tool at $200 million per system and nearly four times more expensive than an F-35 fighter jet.
The announcements by Intel, Samsung and TSMC mark a significant endorsement for the Dutch chipmaking tool supplier and its next-generation technology. Their commitments also ease concerns that such cutting-edge lithography technology could be too expensive and advanced for widespread industry use.
TSMC executives had previously said it was too costly to start using the enhanced version of the tool, even though it, along with Samsung, was among the first adopters of ASML's standard EUV machines, back in 2019.
Intel by contrast was slower to shift to standard EUV, relying instead on older lithography tools. That decision led to lower production yields for certain CPUs, or central processing units, and delays in its roadmap for introducing new products, according to industry executives. It has been more proactive in introducing high NA EUV, receiving its machine in 2024. The company said it started using the tool for "select layers" of chips made with its 18A production process this year.
Samsung, meanwhile, said it plans to introduce the high NA EUV machine for DRAM memory chips by 2028 in what would be a first for that industry.
"The AI era is transforming the semiconductor industry and increasing the importance of technological innovation across the entire value chain," said Young Hyun Jun, vice chairman and CEO of Samsung Electronics. "Samsung is committed to maintaining leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, including memory and foundry, through breakthrough technologies and strong partnerships."
Currently, only TSMC, Intel and Samsung are economically and technologically able to mass produce the world's most advanced logic chips. Chinese chipmakers like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. are barred by U.S. and Dutch export curbs from buying ASML's cutting-edge chip production tools, though they are still aggressively pursuing more advanced chipmaking capabilities with less advanced tools. China is also looking to build its own answer to ASML. Japan's Rapidus, meanwhile, aims to produce cutting-edge chips with ASML's EUV machines, but on a smaller scale initially.
TSMC and ASML, meanwhile, announced plans on Tuesday to overhaul photomasks, or the templates used to transfer circuit patterns onto wafers, for the latest tool. The two companies will work together to transition from the 6-inch masks used today to 12-inch versions to maximize the efficiency and capabilities of the high NA EUV tool. Intel and Samsung also said they both back the overhaul of the mask ecosystem and would join the push to build larger masks for next-generation chip production.
"We have always believed that when the industry works together to solve complex problems, we unlock possibilities that no single company could achieve alone," said TSMC Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei. "By bringing together expertise from across the industry's value chain, we hope to keep providing the benefits of cutting-edge technology through continuous innovation that lowers barriers and puts advanced solutions accessible at scale."
Christophe Fouquet, president and CEO of ASML, said, "We expect the adoption of high NA EUV to increase progressively along the device scaling roadmap, first using current 6-inch masks and then further supported by 12-inch masks, which enable greater scanner productivity and allow the industry to meet the demand for smaller, faster and more energy-efficient chips."
TSMC and ASML aim to build a 12-inch mask pilot line by 2031 to support full lithography system readiness for advanced chip production by 2033.

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