TheElec 汇编称 Anthropic 拟10月中旬以最高2万亿美元估值赴美IPO、月之暗面已于9月3日秘密递表港交所，但两家均为未上市公司，且该汇编无新增一手事实

Leading artificial intelligence (AI) companies in the US and China have begun the process of going public.
Anthropic could launch its initial public offering (IPO) as early as October and list before the US midterm elections in November, Reuters reported. China's Moonshot AI has also reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO this year. The moves put leading frontier AI companies from both countries under direct scrutiny from capital markets.
According to Reuters, Anthropic plans to release its prospectus around late September for an IPO in mid-October. The timetable has been pushed back from an earlier expectation for a prospectus release in early September. IPO marketing is expected to begin in mid-October following the prospectus release.
Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement for the IPO to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June. The company said at the time that the number of shares and offering price had yet to be determined and that the listing would depend on market conditions and other factors.
Anthropic could seek a valuation of as much as $2 trillion in the IPO. That would be more than double the $965 billion valuation it received in its most recent funding round.
A $2 trillion valuation would put Anthropic's IPO close to the $2 trillion market capitalization of SpaceX, which went public in the first half of this year. It would effectively make the offering one of the world's largest IPOs. As of the Sept. 4 close, TSMC was valued at $1.98 trillion and SpaceX at $2 trillion.
Anthropic's potential $2 trillion valuation reflects its rapid growth, including its first quarterly profit in the second quarter and annual recurring revenue (ARR) of about $65 billion in July.
When Anthropic raised $30 billion in a Series G round in February at a $380 billion valuation, ARR stood at $14 billion. By its $65 billion Series H round in May, its valuation had reached $965 billion and ARR had surpassed $47 billion. ARR surged from $14 billion in February to $47 billion in May and $65 billion in July, driving up its revenue multiple.
The market expects Anthropic's ARR to reach about $100 billion to $120 billion by the end of this year. Reuters said the $2 trillion valuation is based to a significant degree on projections for revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028.
That pace of growth is widening the valuation gap with OpenAI, which is valued at $1 trillion. OpenAI had also considered going public this year but is pushing its IPO to 2027 or later so it can list when it can command a $1 trillion valuation, according to Bloomberg and the New York Times.
OpenAI is valued below Anthropic because its ARR cited in recent reports is about $40 billion. According to the Financial Times, Reuters and other reports, OpenAI's ARR stood at $21.4 billion at the end of last year, more than $25 billion at the end of February and about $40 billion in August. The market currently assigns greater potential to Anthropic's revenue scale and future growth prospects.
Anthropic is also preparing a $15 billion revolving credit facility ahead of the IPO. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Citi are among the banks involved, according to Reuters. Anthropic is seeking a financial structure that combines equity raised through the IPO with a large credit line to support continued investment in computing infrastructure.
Anthropic's governance structure could also become a factor in the IPO. The company has a special body called the Long-Term Benefit Trust (LTBT), which has authority to appoint four of the seven members of its board. The structure is intended to prioritize AI safety and long-term public benefit over short-term profits.
Once Anthropic becomes a public company, shareholders are likely to demand higher valuations and improved profitability, potentially creating tension with the LTBT's focus on long-term safety and public benefit. The IPO will also test whether a governance structure designed around AI safety can be maintained at a publicly traded company valued in the trillions of dollars.
In China, which is competing with the US for AI leadership, Moonshot AI, developer of Kimi K3, is reportedly preparing to enter Hong Kong's capital market.
According to Reuters, Moonshot AI confidentially filed for an IPO with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Sept. 3, targeting about $3 billion and potentially as much as $5 billion in proceeds. About three years after its founding, Moonshot is valued at roughly $50 billion. The timing of the IPO will depend on regulatory approval in China and market conditions. Moonshot has raised more than $5.5 billion from investors including Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, China Mobile, IDG Capital and HSG.
◇Moonshot AI, Developer of Kimi K3, Expected to Pursue Hong Kong IPO This Year
The most important technological asset in Moonshot AI's IPO is Kimi K3, unveiled in July. K3 is an open-weight model with 2.8 trillion parameters, making it one of the largest open-weight models. It combines performance competitive with US frontier models with an open-weight strategy.
While frontier AI companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI primarily use closed models to generate revenue from application programming interfaces (APIs) and enterprise services, Moonshot AI releases its model weights to expand its ecosystem and generates hosting and service revenue on top of it. K3 has also helped challenge the perception of Chinese AI models as lower-performance, low-cost alternatives.
Moonshot AI has recently been in talks with US cloud service providers (CSPs) over Kimi K3 services, potentially helping it address computing capacity constraints while strengthening its position as a global platform.
Within 48 hours of Kimi K3's launch, user traffic and API requests exceeded expectations, prompting Moonshot AI to temporarily suspend new paid subscriptions for individual users to maintain service stability for existing subscribers. The 2.8-trillion-parameter model rapidly strained GPU clusters and inference capacity, resulting in delayed API access and queues.
According to foreign media reports, Moonshot AI is negotiating with Microsoft, Amazon and Google over cloud hosting and revenue sharing for Kimi K3. Moonshot AI is reportedly seeking as much as 30% of revenue from K3-related services.
The talks are still at an early stage and no outcome has been finalized, but an agreement could bolster Moonshot AI's Hong Kong listing. Rather than spending heavily to build its own global cloud infrastructure, the company could secure sustainable recurring revenue and a stable overseas cash cow by sharing revenue with US CSPs.
The negotiations are also reportedly subject to an annual commercial threshold of $20 million. Under the structure, companies or partners operating a Model-as-a-Service (MaaS) business that generate more than $20 million in annual revenue using K3 would be required to enter into a separate commercial agreement and formal revenue-sharing negotiations with Moonshot AI.
The arrangement would also carry broader significance for the AI industry. It would create a structure in which major US cloud providers host a frontier model developed by a Chinese AI company and share the resulting service revenue with that company.
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is attracting Chinese AI companies seeking access to a broader pool of investment capital. With US restrictions on China and geopolitical uncertainty increasing, Hong Kong has emerged as a major alternative for raising global capital.
Foreign investors face strict restrictions on access to mainland Chinese stock markets in Shanghai and Beijing, while Hong Kong allows global institutional investors and international funds to participate more freely. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's global liquidity pool is particularly attractive to AI companies that require large amounts of overseas capital.
Hong Kong's adherence to internationally recognized accounting and disclosure standards also provides overseas partners and investors with a more familiar governance structure. That is encouraging Chinese companies such as Moonshot AI, which is pursuing revenue-sharing agreements with US CSPs and expansion of its global ecosystem, to seek Hong Kong listings.
Chinese AI companies including Z.AI and MiniMax have listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, Hong Kong IPOs raised $41.2 billion through mid-August, up 142% from a year earlier. Reuters said Chinese technology companies have led the surge and that Moonshot AI restructured from an offshore entity into a mainland Chinese entity as part of preparations for its Hong Kong IPO.