韩国9月汽油消费同比增2.97%为限价以来首次转正，但第11轮限价预计16日维持不变

Gasoline consumption in South Korea rose nearly 3% in September from a year earlier, the first increase in service station sales since the Middle East conflict escalated in March. Kerosene consumption also turned higher for the first time since March. Analysts say the government's price ceiling on petroleum products is deepening distortions in supply and demand even as global oil prices run high.
Domestic gasoline consumption reached 1,260,926 kiloliters last month, up 2.97% from 1,224,614 kiloliters in September last year, according to data the Korea Petroleum Quality & Distribution Authority submitted to the office of Yoon Han-hong, a People Power Party member of the National Assembly's Trade, Industry, Energy, SMEs and Startups Committee. Gasoline consumption had fallen steadily from April through August after rising 3.95% year-on-year in March, when the U.S.-Iran war began. The government had argued that the price ceiling curbed consumer inflation while also holding down consumption to some degree. Funding set aside for the program totals about 5.7 trillion won ($4 billion), combining this year's reserve funds and next year's budget.
But consumption rebounded in September as the controls dragged on and consumers grew accustomed to the capped prices. Kerosene consumption, which had also declined steadily since March, when it fell 9.3%, rose 10.45% in September.
Several factors likely contributed to the shift, including the holiday calendar. The Chuseok holiday fell in October last year but in late September this year, which may have lifted freight and passenger demand. Some analysts also say the government undercut its own policy by cutting fuel prices by 100 won per liter at 226 highway rest stops and waiving tolls during the holiday. Even during the months when consumption fell, the declines ranged from 1.12% to 2.4% except in April, raising questions about how much the ceiling actually restrained demand.
With the ceiling's grip on prices weakening, calls are growing for the government to map out an exit. "Price control policies bring side effects such as price distortion and fiscal inefficiency, so they should be used only as a temporary emergency measure," Yoon said. "It is time to move quickly on an exit strategy."
Yoo Seung-hoon, a professor of future energy convergence at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, said global energy prices have risen sharply and are signaling consumers to cut back, "but Korea alone is keeping prices low and sending the wrong signal to consumers." He added that "it is not desirable for a country that imports all of its oil to maintain such a policy for a long period." Yoo also suggested ending the ceiling on gasoline while phasing out the cap on diesel in stages, noting that diesel users include many small business owners, light truck drivers and delivery workers who depend on it for a living.
The government is weighing when to end the program. It has already run past the six months originally expected. Preparing a sunset is complicated by the absence of any sign that the U.S.-Iran war is ending. Benchmark crude fell to the $60s a barrel in June, when prospects for a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appeared to be firming, but has since climbed above $100 as clashes have intensified again. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels is also widening, making it difficult to gauge when geopolitical uncertainty will ease. Lee Jung-hee, a professor of economics at Chung-Ang University, said that "if the program is suddenly halted and conditions in the Middle East worsen again, it would be hard to reintroduce." He added that "the government does not have much room for choice."
Against that backdrop, the prevailing view is that the 11th round of petroleum price ceilings, due on the 16th, will leave the existing caps unchanged. International oil prices have moved little since the 10th round was announced on the 18th of last month, leaving little reason to raise or lower the caps. The current ceilings — 1,784 won per liter for gasoline, 1,773 won for diesel and 1,380 won for kerosene, set on June 26 — have held for four months.
Meanwhile, work to compensate refiners for accumulated losses is stretching toward the end of the year. The government and the industry have been at odds over settlement principles, and refiners have needed time to submit accounting documents in line with government guidelines. When it introduced the ceiling, the government allocated 4.2 trillion won in reserve funds through a supplementary budget to cover industry losses. It has since set aside 1.4497 trillion won in next year's budget to cover losses from the fourth quarter of this year.