CNBC Top NewsDoubao · 实盘不做把握 4/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:36:17(美东 06:36)·⟳ 抓取 18:36:24 +7s·⚡ 决策 10-13 18:50:09 +13m45s·14.4 天前
四大行Q3财报盘前登场：富国EPS小幅超预期但营收不及预期，摩根大通/花旗/高盛尚未公布，方向不明
信号时点（6:48 ET）唯一落地的富国银行业绩为EPS小超、营收不及的混合信号，幅度均在2%以内，无明确正预期差；其余三家最大权重行尚未公布，属于盘前财报直播预览而非可交易的方向性催化，且盘前不可连续成交、电话会指引未知，不具备正期望入场条件。
📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
Bank earnings live updates: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo report results
The quarter was dominated by headlines around artificial intelligence, IPO uncertainty, high fuel prices and rising bor…
不做 富国银行（WFC.US）
已公布Q3数据好坏参半（EPS 1.87超预期1%，营收218.7亿低于预期约1.9%），无方向性surprise；盘前不可连续成交，电话会（10:00 ET）对NIM与存款成本的指引未知，不具备正期望。
不做 摩根大通（JPM.US）
业绩在信号时点尚未公布（8:00 ET前发布），当前只有一致预期与管理层前期表述，交易预期而非事实；盘前跳空风险高，等数据落地后再评估。
不做 花旗集团（C.US）
业绩未公布，仅有分部收入预期与此前管理层偏正面指引（旧信息），无新增事实支撑方向单。
不做 高盛集团（GS.US）
业绩未公布；CEO继任传闻已有发言人否认且为旧报道，不构成新增催化，等待实际财报与指引。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
富国银行Q3 EPS 1.87美元微超预期但营收218.7亿美元低于预期223亿美元，数据好坏参半；摩根大通、花旗、高盛财报在约1小时后才发布，当前只有预期没有事实。盘前阶段方向不明、信息不完整，不做。
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-13 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 唯一已披露的富国银行为混合数据（EPS +1.1% vs 营收 -1.9%），不构成方向性surprise。
- 其余三行尚未公布，交易的是预期而非新增事实，不符合事件驱动入场前提。
主要风险
- 8:00 ET前三家大行集中公布，盘前可能出现大幅跳空，任何方向单都面临缺口与低流动性风险。
- 若强行解读富国为利好，电话会对存款成本/NIM及AI agent存款迁移的表态可能证伪多头逻辑。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
原文即含显著反方：10年期美债收益率约5.3%创二十余年新高、存款成本上行、Q3全球投行收入同比降6.6%、美银预警投行费降超10%、银行板块Q3跑输大盘（S&P500银行指数跌5.4%）、AI agent存款迁移担忧；多头缺乏干净的净利好。
检索:big banks Q3 2026 headwinds deposit costs AI agents bank run Torsten Slok investment banking decline 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例与信号结构均支持AVOID：等三家数据与电话会落地、出现明确超预期或指引surprise后再单独评估。
方向:无可用高相似对齐先例；本次为单家混合财报+多家未公布的不完整信息，不宜用历史大行财报日涨幅外推方向。
涨幅量级:未做event_study：信号本身不构成方向一致的可交易催化，缺乏锚定tp/sl的基础。
形态:大型银行财报日个股反应高度依赖实际beat/miss与指引，混合数据常呈盘中宽幅震荡，盘前追单胜率低。
工具执行结果 · 成功 1 · 降级 0 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
- search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 10 ms
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原文全文
展开原文 · 10,218 字
The quarter was dominated by headlines around artificial intelligence, IPO uncertainty, high fuel prices and rising borrowing costs.
All four reports are due by 8 a.m. ET, and executives from each of the banks will be addressing those topics and more during earnings calls between 8:30 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET.
Wells Fargo earnings are out — here are the numbers
Here's what Wells Fargo reported compared with analysts' consensus estimates, according to LSEG:
Earnings per share: $1.87 vs. $1.85 per share expected
Revenue: $21.87 billion vs. $22.3 billion expected
— Sara Salinas
20 Min Ago
The Muse effect: Do banks face disruption risk from AI agents?
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of the Facebook parent company Meta, takes the stage at the Meta Connect developer conference.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
One likely topic for today's analyst calls will be around whether banks aren't just the beneficiary of AI, but at risk from it.
Specifically, AI agents like Meta's Muse could make it easier for customers to move money from accounts that pay almost nothing to accounts with higher yields. Last month, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok even outlined a possible bank run scenario caused by AI.
"If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans," Slok wrote. That would "be a problem for the entire financial system."
Some banks faced higher deposit costs last quarter, but that's amid the backdrop of surging Treasury yields, according to StreetAccount.
Bank stocks were hit by concerns over AI agents last month, just as shares of Meta were rising as its Muse app topped the app download charts.
But over the longer term, banks will develop their own agent interfaces, insulating them from the threat, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in an Oct. 4 note.
"Investors continue to inquire about the potential for agentic AI to disrupt banking deposits, fees, margins and customer acquisition," Poonawala wrote. "While the timing and magnitude remain uncertain, one implication is becoming clearer: banks may increasingly need to build for the agent, not just the customer."
— Hugh Son
35 Min Ago
Oura's shelved IPO raises questions about Wall Street's deal outlook
Tom Hale, chief executive officer of Oura Health Oy, wears an Oura Ring during an interview in San Francisco, California, US, on Friday, June 14, 2024.
Those are the questions analysts will have for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase after a string of high-profile IPOs were put on hold in recent months, including the listing of smart ring maker Oura, which cited uncertain market conditions as its reason for delay.
Global investment banking revenue in the third quarter fell 6.6% from a year earlier to $27.2 billion, thanks to declines in closed mergers and debt issuance, according to Dealogic data.
But the slowdown is far from uniform across Wall Street.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in September that third-quarter investment banking fees were headed for a decline of more than 10%, while trading revenue will be roughly flat.
Citigroup expected to do a bit better: CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told analysts at the same conference that investment banking is tracking for "low-single-digit" revenue growth, while trading revenue was heading for "mid-single-digit" growth.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan co-president Doug Petno told analysts last month that both investment banking and trading revenue were headed for a percentage jump in the mid- to high-teens, showing that the boom continues at some banks.
— Hugh Son
45 Min Ago
The breakdown of segment revenues expected for Citigroup
According to consensus metrics from StreetAccount, Citigroup is expected to report $4.31 billion in revenue for its fixed income markets division. It's also expected to report $1.76 billion in revenue in equity markets and $1.29 billion in investment banking fees.
Analysts are expecting Citi to report $2.41 billion in net credit losses and $2.62 billion in provisions for credit losses.
– Laya Neelakandan
50 Min Ago
Jamie Dimon's warning on interest rates is coming into focus
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during the America Business Forum in Miami, Florida, US, on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For years, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that interest rates could climb higher than investors expect, fueled by persistent inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
Investors may get a fresh read on that outlook as the big banks report third-quarter results.
Bond markets sold off during the period amid renewed inflation concerns, rising oil prices and questions about how the growing wave of debt tied to artificial intelligence is impacting credit markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield — a benchmark that influences borrowing costs across the economy — jumped to about 5.3% by the end of September, the highest level in more than two decades. Bond prices fall as yields rise, pushing up financing costs for businesses and consumers.
For banks, higher rates are a double-edged sword.
Lenders may earn more on new loans, but they also face pressure to pay more to retain deposits as money market funds and Treasuries become enticing to investors. Higher borrowing costs may weigh on loan demand, while tighter financial conditions could complicate mergers and IPOs.
Ultimately, higher rates can strain borrowers' finances, pushing some into default.
Those concerns weighed on bank stocks during the third quarter. The S&P 500 Banks Index fell 5.4%, while the broader S&P 500 gained about 2.3%.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Is the clock ticking on Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's tenure?
John Waldron, chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon.
This will be the first chance that analysts have to directly ask Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon about reports that he could be replaced by his main deputy, John Waldron, as soon as next year.
If Waldron, who currently serves as Goldman president and chief operating officer, takes over as CEO, Solomon would likely remain as executive chairman for a period of time, an arrangement designed to engineer a smooth handoff.
But it's unclear if Solomon, 64, is ready to release the reins of the top Wall Street investment bank, just as his company has hit its stride.
Solomon has gotten Goldman back on track after an ill-fated foray into consumer banking earlier in his tenure. With help from the artificial intelligence boom and a rebound in deals and trading, Goldman shares have outpaced rivals over the past year.
Goldman spokesman Tony Fratto has said there is "no definitive timeline for succession" at the bank.
Both Solomon and Waldron were awarded $80 bonuses in 2025 to keep them at the bank through 2030.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo is expected to report these segment revenues
Analysts are expecting Wells Fargo to report net interest income of $12.66 billion, according to consensus metrics from StreetAccount.
They're also estimating the company will report a provision for credit losses of $1.14 billion.
Last quarter, CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank was "benefitting from the broad-based economic strength" in the U.S.
– Laya Neelakandan
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo has a streak of beating revenue expectations
According to StreetAccount, Wells Fargo has beaten consensus expectations for revenue in 12 of the past 20 quarters.
The company has also beaten consensus metrics for earnings per share in 16 of the past 20 quarters, with one report in-line with expectations.
– Laya Neelakandan
2 Hours Ago
Here's what to expect from Citigroup
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Citigroup is set to report its third-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what the company is expected to post, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $2.66 expected
Revenue: $23.72 billion expected
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 11 a.m. ET.
– Laya Neelakandan
2 Hours Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Goldman Sachs
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., speaks during the Qatar Economic Forum in New York, US, on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, has benefited from elevated investment banking and trading activity so far this year.
The main question: Will the Wall Street boom continue?
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $13.02, according to LSEG
Revenue: $16.71 billion, according to LSEG
Trading revenue: fixed income of $3.71 billion, equities of $5.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Investing banking fees: $2.84 billion, according to StreetAccount
Solomon and CFO Denis Coleman will hold a conference call with analysts at 9:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
2 Hours Ago
Here's what Wall Street expects from JPMorgan
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, departs the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday.
JPMorgan, led by longtime CEO Jamie Dimon, is the biggest U.S. bank by assets and the largest in the world by market capitalization.
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $5.90 according to LSEG
Revenue: $51.22 billion, according to LSEG
Investment banking fees: $3.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Trading revenue: Fixed income of $5.95 billion, equities of $4.43 billion, per StreetAccount
Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum will hold a conference call with analysts at 8:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
2 Hours Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Wells Fargo
A Wells Fargo logo is displayed on a sign outside of a bank branch on June 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images
Wells Fargo is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what Wall Street is expecting from the company:
Earnings per share: $1.85 per share expected, according to LSEG
Revenue: $22.3 billion expected, according to LSEG
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 10 a.m. ET.
All four reports are due by 8 a.m. ET, and executives from each of the banks will be addressing those topics and more during earnings calls between 8:30 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET.
Wells Fargo earnings are out — here are the numbers
Here's what Wells Fargo reported compared with analysts' consensus estimates, according to LSEG:
Earnings per share: $1.87 vs. $1.85 per share expected
Revenue: $21.87 billion vs. $22.3 billion expected
— Sara Salinas
20 Min Ago
The Muse effect: Do banks face disruption risk from AI agents?
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of the Facebook parent company Meta, takes the stage at the Meta Connect developer conference.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
One likely topic for today's analyst calls will be around whether banks aren't just the beneficiary of AI, but at risk from it.
Specifically, AI agents like Meta's Muse could make it easier for customers to move money from accounts that pay almost nothing to accounts with higher yields. Last month, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok even outlined a possible bank run scenario caused by AI.
"If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans," Slok wrote. That would "be a problem for the entire financial system."
Some banks faced higher deposit costs last quarter, but that's amid the backdrop of surging Treasury yields, according to StreetAccount.
Bank stocks were hit by concerns over AI agents last month, just as shares of Meta were rising as its Muse app topped the app download charts.
But over the longer term, banks will develop their own agent interfaces, insulating them from the threat, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in an Oct. 4 note.
"Investors continue to inquire about the potential for agentic AI to disrupt banking deposits, fees, margins and customer acquisition," Poonawala wrote. "While the timing and magnitude remain uncertain, one implication is becoming clearer: banks may increasingly need to build for the agent, not just the customer."
— Hugh Son
35 Min Ago
Oura's shelved IPO raises questions about Wall Street's deal outlook
Tom Hale, chief executive officer of Oura Health Oy, wears an Oura Ring during an interview in San Francisco, California, US, on Friday, June 14, 2024.
Those are the questions analysts will have for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase after a string of high-profile IPOs were put on hold in recent months, including the listing of smart ring maker Oura, which cited uncertain market conditions as its reason for delay.
Global investment banking revenue in the third quarter fell 6.6% from a year earlier to $27.2 billion, thanks to declines in closed mergers and debt issuance, according to Dealogic data.
But the slowdown is far from uniform across Wall Street.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in September that third-quarter investment banking fees were headed for a decline of more than 10%, while trading revenue will be roughly flat.
Citigroup expected to do a bit better: CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told analysts at the same conference that investment banking is tracking for "low-single-digit" revenue growth, while trading revenue was heading for "mid-single-digit" growth.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan co-president Doug Petno told analysts last month that both investment banking and trading revenue were headed for a percentage jump in the mid- to high-teens, showing that the boom continues at some banks.
— Hugh Son
45 Min Ago
The breakdown of segment revenues expected for Citigroup
According to consensus metrics from StreetAccount, Citigroup is expected to report $4.31 billion in revenue for its fixed income markets division. It's also expected to report $1.76 billion in revenue in equity markets and $1.29 billion in investment banking fees.
Analysts are expecting Citi to report $2.41 billion in net credit losses and $2.62 billion in provisions for credit losses.
– Laya Neelakandan
50 Min Ago
Jamie Dimon's warning on interest rates is coming into focus
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during the America Business Forum in Miami, Florida, US, on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For years, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that interest rates could climb higher than investors expect, fueled by persistent inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
Investors may get a fresh read on that outlook as the big banks report third-quarter results.
Bond markets sold off during the period amid renewed inflation concerns, rising oil prices and questions about how the growing wave of debt tied to artificial intelligence is impacting credit markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield — a benchmark that influences borrowing costs across the economy — jumped to about 5.3% by the end of September, the highest level in more than two decades. Bond prices fall as yields rise, pushing up financing costs for businesses and consumers.
For banks, higher rates are a double-edged sword.
Lenders may earn more on new loans, but they also face pressure to pay more to retain deposits as money market funds and Treasuries become enticing to investors. Higher borrowing costs may weigh on loan demand, while tighter financial conditions could complicate mergers and IPOs.
Ultimately, higher rates can strain borrowers' finances, pushing some into default.
Those concerns weighed on bank stocks during the third quarter. The S&P 500 Banks Index fell 5.4%, while the broader S&P 500 gained about 2.3%.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Is the clock ticking on Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's tenure?
John Waldron, chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon.
This will be the first chance that analysts have to directly ask Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon about reports that he could be replaced by his main deputy, John Waldron, as soon as next year.
If Waldron, who currently serves as Goldman president and chief operating officer, takes over as CEO, Solomon would likely remain as executive chairman for a period of time, an arrangement designed to engineer a smooth handoff.
But it's unclear if Solomon, 64, is ready to release the reins of the top Wall Street investment bank, just as his company has hit its stride.
Solomon has gotten Goldman back on track after an ill-fated foray into consumer banking earlier in his tenure. With help from the artificial intelligence boom and a rebound in deals and trading, Goldman shares have outpaced rivals over the past year.
Goldman spokesman Tony Fratto has said there is "no definitive timeline for succession" at the bank.
Both Solomon and Waldron were awarded $80 bonuses in 2025 to keep them at the bank through 2030.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo is expected to report these segment revenues
Analysts are expecting Wells Fargo to report net interest income of $12.66 billion, according to consensus metrics from StreetAccount.
They're also estimating the company will report a provision for credit losses of $1.14 billion.
Last quarter, CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank was "benefitting from the broad-based economic strength" in the U.S.
– Laya Neelakandan
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo has a streak of beating revenue expectations
According to StreetAccount, Wells Fargo has beaten consensus expectations for revenue in 12 of the past 20 quarters.
The company has also beaten consensus metrics for earnings per share in 16 of the past 20 quarters, with one report in-line with expectations.
– Laya Neelakandan
2 Hours Ago
Here's what to expect from Citigroup
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Citigroup is set to report its third-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what the company is expected to post, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $2.66 expected
Revenue: $23.72 billion expected
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 11 a.m. ET.
– Laya Neelakandan
2 Hours Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Goldman Sachs
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., speaks during the Qatar Economic Forum in New York, US, on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, has benefited from elevated investment banking and trading activity so far this year.
The main question: Will the Wall Street boom continue?
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $13.02, according to LSEG
Revenue: $16.71 billion, according to LSEG
Trading revenue: fixed income of $3.71 billion, equities of $5.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Investing banking fees: $2.84 billion, according to StreetAccount
Solomon and CFO Denis Coleman will hold a conference call with analysts at 9:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
2 Hours Ago
Here's what Wall Street expects from JPMorgan
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, departs the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday.
JPMorgan, led by longtime CEO Jamie Dimon, is the biggest U.S. bank by assets and the largest in the world by market capitalization.
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $5.90 according to LSEG
Revenue: $51.22 billion, according to LSEG
Investment banking fees: $3.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Trading revenue: Fixed income of $5.95 billion, equities of $4.43 billion, per StreetAccount
Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum will hold a conference call with analysts at 8:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
2 Hours Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Wells Fargo
A Wells Fargo logo is displayed on a sign outside of a bank branch on June 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images
Wells Fargo is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what Wall Street is expecting from the company:
Earnings per share: $1.85 per share expected, according to LSEG
Revenue: $22.3 billion expected, according to LSEG
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 10 a.m. ET.
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22e4496957· 2026-10-13 18:50 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包2226518bfdee当前