韩国百货店销售增速因股市回调和财富效应减弱而放缓

Concerns are growing that the "wealth effect" that drove a department store boom this year could disappear as the domestic stock market undergoes a sharp correction. Rising stock prices had increased consumers' assets and boosted their spending, which, together with strong foreign demand, drove department store growth. But the recent plunge in stock prices has raised the likelihood that consumer sentiment will falter. As a result, observers say the high growth of department stores, which had been expected to continue for an extended period, could slow earlier than anticipated.
According to the retail industry on the 28th, the year-on-year growth rate of Lotte Department Store's fashion category sales among domestic customers reached 5% in June. Fashion sales growth, which had run at around 15% to 25% on a monthly basis, fell into single digits for the first time in June. This month, the possibility of a year-on-year decline is even being raised.
Shinsegae Department Store showed a similar trend. Its fashion category sales among domestic customers rose 9.1% year-on-year in June, the lowest level this year. This was 3.3 percentage points lower than the average growth rate of 12.4% from January to May. Hyundai Department Store also saw its fashion category sales growth in June come in at just 10.3%, the lowest monthly figure this year.
The fashion category is considered a representative item that reflects the purchasing sentiment of general consumers, including the middle class. Traditionally, June and July see slowing growth due to seasonal characteristics centered on summer clothing sales, which have lower unit prices. Analysts say the slowdown became noticeable as the wealth effect declined as well. "The fashion category typically weakens during the summer season as purchasing demand contracts, and this appears to have combined with a contraction in consumer sentiment caused by the stock market correction," a retail industry official explained.
Signs of a spending slowdown are also emerging in the luxury category. According to Lotte Department Store, the growth rate of luxury sales among domestic customers reached 15% as of the 26th this month. Considering that the average sales growth rate from January to June this year was 32.5%, the growth rate has fallen to less than half. Shinsegae Department Store and Hyundai Department Store were also found to have seen luxury sales growth peak in May before its upward momentum slowed somewhat in June and July.
Analysts say this trend is linked to the recent plunge in the domestic stock market. The wealth effect that emerged as the KOSPI maintained a strong upward trend in the first half of this year had, together with increased foreign spending, driven department store performance. But as the stock market has recently repeated sharp rises and falls, spending is not gaining as much traction as before, some point out. According to the Korea Exchange, the KOSPI closed at 6,023.66 on this day, down 10.84% from the previous trading session. During the session, it plunged more than 11%, breaking below the 6,000 mark. The KOSDAQ also closed at 705.85, down 7.72% from the previous trading session.
The industry expects strong foreign spending to serve as a support for the time being, but is concerned that department store growth could slow if domestic spending, the other pillar driving department store performance, weakens. Earlier this year, the prevailing forecast was that the department store boom would continue at least until next year, but observers say the high-growth phase could end early if the wealth effect weakens faster than expected.
Hanwha Investment & Securities forecast, "The stock market is undergoing a strong correction, so we are on guard against a contraction in the asset effect." It added, "Assuming the current trend in the stock market continues, market skepticism about the asset effect will not be easily resolved, and through the third quarter, department store stock prices are expected to move in line with the direction of the stock market."