长鑫科技Q3业绩与4F²进展冲击全球存储股，但核心信息已扩散且多空预期差不足

▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issues Briefing]
■ China's DRAM Rise Hits Korean Memory Market Value: China's CXMT sent shockwaves through Korea's chip industry by guiding for third-quarter revenue of 11.47 billion to 11.97 billion yuan, up 589% to 619% from a year earlier, and announcing plans to launch next-generation 4F² server DRAM within the year. Shares of Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) plunged 17.8% and 24.3% respectively last week, but counterarguments are mounting on Wall Street that CXMT's technology remains insufficiently verified and the company could prove to be a "paper tiger."
■ Samsung Overhauls HBM Base Die Production Method: Samsung Electronics has decided to use TSMC's 3-nanometer process for the first time to manufacture the base die for Nvidia's custom HBM, called NVHBM, creating the first exception to its HBM turnkey strategy. The move follows Nvidia's request that all three HBM suppliers standardize on the TSMC process. Samsung plans to maintain its policy of in-house foundry production for standard HBM and for products supplied to other customers such as AMD.
■ Deteriorating Market Liquidity: Margin Loans and Forced Selling Create Double Burden: While the KOSPI has retreated to late-July levels, margin loan balances have risen 3.81 trillion won and investor deposits have fallen 7.22 trillion won, leaving funding conditions worse than they were at that time. Forced liquidation pressure is building, with the value of forced selling surging 12.7-fold from 6.3 billion won on the 8th of this month to 80.4 billion won on the 15th. Analysts say liquidity is unlikely to recover without renewed foreign inflows.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
Key points: CXMT also guided for a swing to a net profit of 5.33 billion to 5.48 billion yuan in the third quarter, and Chairman Zhu Yiming proposed a share buyback of 1 billion to 2 billion yuan, signaling management confidence in the company's valuation. Elon Musk said publicly that China will produce an enormous volume of memory in 2028, and Apple is reported to be testing CXMT memory, making supply chain diversification by global tech giants increasingly visible. CXMT's 4F² structure can reduce cell area by 33% compared with the current 6F² design, enabling higher-density storage. However, Wall Street analysts at firms including Rosenblatt and Mizuho drew a line, saying the unverified process maturity and yields mean it cannot be directly compared with Samsung Electronics' 2028 mass production target.
2. [Exclusive] Samsung Electronics to Build Next-Generation HBM With TSMC
Key points: Nvidia asked Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron, which it has tasked with producing NVHBM, to standardize on TSMC's 3-nanometer process for base dies and on the sixth-generation DRAM (1c) process for core dies. Samsung's Device Solutions division accepted the request after an internal review. NVHBM is based on the structure of HBM4E, the seventh-generation and next-generation HBM. Standardizing manufacturing methods across suppliers is intended to ensure consistent design performance and reduce the burden of separate validation. Samsung is also reported to be evaluating the use of its own foundry in parallel, in case TSMC's capacity falls short of demand. This is the first time Samsung has partnered with TSMC from the HBM manufacturing stage.
3. Margin Loans Rise 4 Trillion Won as 7 Trillion Won in Idle Cash Drains Away
Key points: As of the 15th of this month, margin loan balances stood at 32.75 trillion won, up 13.2% from 28.93 trillion won at the end of July, while investor deposits fell from 104 trillion won to 96.91 trillion won over the same period, sharply reducing the market's potential buying power. Analysts attribute the shift to recent interest rate increases drawing some funds into bank deposits and to a growing number of investors moving into U.S. equities. Corporate money market funds grew by more than 10 trillion won, but retail MMF balances declined, meaning short-term liquidity is not translating into individual investors' buying capacity. October and November are when global hedge funds concentrate accounting settlements and book closings, raising concerns that further profit-taking by foreign investors cannot be ruled out.
[Reference News for Stock Investors]
4. "Rate Hold in October, Hike in November; Bond Issuance to Be Cut by Another 5 to 10 Trillion Won"
Key points: In a Seoul Economic Daily survey of 20 economic and financial experts, 95% expected the Monetary Policy Board to hold the base rate at 3% at its meeting on the 22nd, while 90% said an additional hike in November is likely. Terminal rate forecasts also moved higher than in the August survey, with 13 experts projecting 3.5% as of the first half of next year and some anticipating 4%. Third-quarter gross domestic product is expected to post an upside surprise of about 1% from the previous quarter, and core inflation is approaching 3%, providing ample justification for maintaining a tightening stance, analysts said. The government is expected to cut treasury bond issuance by an additional 5 trillion to 10 trillion won within the year by drawing on excess tax revenue from semiconductors, which is expected to help stabilize the bond market.
5. [Exclusive] National Pension Service Expands Alternative Investments With Data Center Fund
Key points: The National Pension Service is reviewing the creation of a fund dedicated to data center investment and is currently gauging demand among private equity firms and asset managers. This would be the first time the NPS has created a fund limited to data centers, and investment banking industry officials expect the geographic scope to be confined to domestic assets. JLL has forecast that global data center capacity will double from 103 gigawatts to 200 gigawatts by 2030, with the domestic market also expected to expand from about 6 trillion won in 2024 to about 11 trillion won in 2029. With domestic and foreign managers including Koramco, Keppel and Macquarie racing to expand data center development, competition to attract fund capital is also expected to intensify.
6. Department Stores Pause After Strong Run as Third-Quarter Estimates Are Cut
Key points: Third-quarter operating profit estimates for Lotte Shopping, Shinsegae and Hyundai Department Store were all lowered over the past month, with Hyundai Department Store seeing the steepest cut at 5.6%. The won-dollar exchange rate fell to 1,331 won as of the 16th, a two-year low, reducing the price appeal of domestic goods for foreign tourists, while the KOSPI's decline from around 8,400 at the end of June to around 6,800 at the end of September weakened the wealth effect. Department store sales growth narrowed from 24.5% in May to 11.9% in August, the lowest level this year. The industry expects a fourth-quarter rebound driven by advance demand tied to year-end bonuses and the arrival of the peak shopping season.
▶Read more: Chip Materials and Equipment Makers Also Hit With 20% Weekly Losses as Samsung, SK hynix Slide