Seoul Economic Daily EnglishCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:风险收益比不佳
北京时间·🕒 发布 13:16:58(首尔 14:16)·⟳ 抓取 13:29:38 +12m40s·⚡ 决策 09-03 13:31:00 +1m22s·54.2 天前
POSCO与BHP签署HyREX氢基炼钢原料验证合作协议
这是低碳钢研发合作从MOU到验证协议的正面进展，但没有订单金额、收入确认、产能投产或商业化客户锁定，且此前MOU已公开，短线交易预期差不足。
📄 原文Seoul Economic Daily English↗ 原文
POSCO Teams With BHP to Test Iron Ore for Hydrogen Steelmaking
POSCO is joining forces with BHP, Australia's largest mining company, to verify raw materials for the commercialization…
不做 POSCO Holdings（005490.KS）
低碳炼钢合作偏长期研发验证，未披露订单、投资或盈利增量，且2025年已有MOU铺垫，短线无足够edge。
不做 BHP Group（BHP.AU）
合作验证BHP铁矿石适配性，但未形成新增销量或价格条款，事件对BHP短期财务量级不足。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
官方与多家韩媒均确认POSCO和BHP签署HyREX原料验证合作，事实方向偏正面；但该事件本质是商业化前验证和技术合作，不是新增采购合同、产能投产或盈利指引上修。对POSCO和BHP的短期财务弹性都难以量化，且合作框架在2025年10月已有MOU铺垫，因此不做新仓。
消息传播链
- POSCO官方披露与BHP签署氢还原炼钢合作协议，用BHP铁矿石验证HyREX商业化技术。
- 韩媒进一步说明该协议是2025年10月MOU后的具体合作，未新增披露金额或采购承诺。
- BHP此前已宣布与POSCO推进HyREX相关合作，说明本次事件不是全新合作关系首次曝光。
关键理由
- POSCO可用BHP铁矿石验证HyREX在真实原料条件下的稳定性，有助于低碳钢长期商业化准备。
- 现有收入基数为大型综合钢铁/矿业公司，当前披露仅为R&D验证合作，新增可触达收入、利润和市值弹性均未能量化。
- 该合作延续2025年10月MOU，新增事实是验证协议落地而非商业订单，短线预期差有限。
主要风险
- 若后续披露约束性采购、共同投资或政府补贴金额，当前不做判断可能低估长期价值。
- HyREX仍需示范线建设、验证、氢源和经济性落地，技术合作本身不等于商业化成功。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-03 · 影响 weakens
公开报道和官方稿未披露订单金额、约束性采购、共同投资或收入确认条款。
检索:POSCO BHP HyREX agreement order amount purchase commitment investment revenue 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-03-03 · 影响 weakens
POSCO此前材料显示HyREX示范线目标2028年运行、2030年商业化，短线业绩兑现距离较远。
检索:POSCO HyREX demo plant 2028 commercial scale 2030 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例不足叠加当前无金额、无订单、无指引变化，使最终选择回避而非小仓追多。
方向:未取得可直接对齐的同市场、同阶段、同量级先例；类似低碳钢R&D合作通常更偏长期战略叙事。
涨幅量级:缺少高相似先例，不能据此校准短线涨幅。
形态:没有足够样本判断是否存在稳定的见光死或延迟重估模式。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 2,045 字
POSCO is joining forces with BHP, Australia's largest mining company, to verify raw materials for the commercialization of its proprietary hydrogen-based steelmaking technology.
POSCO signed a hydrogen steelmaking cooperation agreement with BHP on the 3rd at Cheongsongdae in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. Under the deal, POSCO plans to use BHP's iron ore to verify HyREX, its own hydrogen reduction steelmaking process.
HyREX produces molten iron without carbon dioxide emissions by using hydrogen as a reducing agent instead of coal, a fossil fuel. POSCO plans to verify whether HyREX operates reliably under various raw material conditions, test how process performance changes according to the characteristics and quality of iron ore, and determine optimal blending conditions.
The two companies also agreed to share technical expertise on raw materials for hydrogen steelmaking and to jointly explore ways to reduce indirect greenhouse gas emissions, known as Scope 3, generated during the raw material supply process.
The agreement follows a memorandum of understanding signed last October in the presence of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and POSCO Group Chairman Chang In-hwa.
"This partnership carries great significance in that a steelmaker and a global raw material supplier are preparing together for the future of low-carbon steelmaking," said Eom Kyung-keun, head of POSCO's research institute of industrial science and technology. "Starting with BHP, we will expand cooperation with global raw material suppliers and accelerate the development of low-carbon steelmaking technology."
Ben Ellis, BHP's chief marketing and sustainability officer, said the project builds on a long-running collaboration with POSCO on innovative steelmaking technology. He said BHP believes it can play an important role in advancing new technologies and pathways to support the decarbonization of its customers' steelmaking processes, and that it will work to ensure Australian iron ore can be used in low-carbon steelmaking as well.
POSCO signed a hydrogen steelmaking cooperation agreement with BHP on the 3rd at Cheongsongdae in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province. Under the deal, POSCO plans to use BHP's iron ore to verify HyREX, its own hydrogen reduction steelmaking process.
HyREX produces molten iron without carbon dioxide emissions by using hydrogen as a reducing agent instead of coal, a fossil fuel. POSCO plans to verify whether HyREX operates reliably under various raw material conditions, test how process performance changes according to the characteristics and quality of iron ore, and determine optimal blending conditions.
The two companies also agreed to share technical expertise on raw materials for hydrogen steelmaking and to jointly explore ways to reduce indirect greenhouse gas emissions, known as Scope 3, generated during the raw material supply process.
The agreement follows a memorandum of understanding signed last October in the presence of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and POSCO Group Chairman Chang In-hwa.
"This partnership carries great significance in that a steelmaker and a global raw material supplier are preparing together for the future of low-carbon steelmaking," said Eom Kyung-keun, head of POSCO's research institute of industrial science and technology. "Starting with BHP, we will expand cooperation with global raw material suppliers and accelerate the development of low-carbon steelmaking technology."
Ben Ellis, BHP's chief marketing and sustainability officer, said the project builds on a long-running collaboration with POSCO on innovative steelmaking technology. He said BHP believes it can play an important role in advancing new technologies and pathways to support the decarbonization of its customers' steelmaking processes, and that it will work to ensure Australian iron ore can be used in low-carbon steelmaking as well.
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