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北京时间·🕒 发布 02:14:40时区推断·⟳ 抓取 02:18:35·⚡ 决策 07-28 02:20:43 +2m08s·91.9 天前
Saipem因中东冲突额外成本下调2026年调整后EBITDA指引
Saipem将2026年调整后EBITDA指引从19亿欧元下调至17.5亿欧元，降幅约7.9%，且二季度调整后EBITDA 4.02亿欧元低于LSEG一致预期4.64亿欧元。
📄 原文Reuters↗ 原文
Italian oil and gas contractor Saipem (SPMI.MI) on Monday revised down its expectations for 2026 core earnings to take…
不做 Saipem（SPMI.IT）
事件方向明确偏空，但stock_quote无法取得米兰标的真实价格，且没有Futu可借券库存回执；不满足做空执行红线，不能裸开SHORT，仅保留风险信号用于禁止新多/减仓。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- Saipem官网财务日历列示2026年7月27日召开二季度业绩董事会并发布中期财务报告，确认该日为正式财务披露节点。
- Reuters报道Saipem因中东危机额外成本和浅水钻井业务出表，将2026年调整后EBITDA预期从19亿欧元下调至17.5亿欧元。市场反应:披露时米兰市场已收盘，短线重估主要落在下一交易日。
- ANSA复核半年报口径：收入73.4亿欧元、EBITDA 8.36亿欧元，但全年EBITDA指引由19亿欧元降至17.5亿欧元。
关键理由
- Saipem将2026年调整后EBITDA指引从19亿欧元下调至17.5亿欧元，降幅约7.9%，且二季度调整后EBITDA 4.02亿欧元低于LSEG一致预期4.64亿欧元。
- 公司披露上半年因海湾地区安保与物流困难已发生约7000万欧元额外成本，未来可向客户追回的金额仍无法精确量化。
- 收入指引和全年经营现金流仍维持不变，说明利空集中在利润率与项目成本重估，而非订单或现金流全面恶化。
主要风险
- 米兰上市标的当前行情工具无法取到真实价格和Futu借券库存，不能把看空判断转成可执行SHORT单。
- 公司同日仍有订单、收入和现金流维持项，若客户补偿谈判顺利，利润下修影响可能被部分追回。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
内部KB未命中同一Saipem下修事件的旧闻；命中Baker Hughes等同行正面业绩，提示行业并非全面利空，但不改变Saipem自身指引下修。
检索:Saipem 2026 EBITDA guidance cut Middle East crisis extra costs consensus miss 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-27 · 影响 weakens
Saipem同日官网新闻列表显示获得Eni约8亿欧元新合同，构成订单层面反证，但全年EBITDA下修仍是更直接的损益表负面。
检索:Saipem awarded new contracts 800 million Eni July 27 2026 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(4 种)
- search_processed_events · 结果未知
- normalize_ticker · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
- kb_search · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,508 字
Italian oil and gas contractor Saipem (SPMI.MI) on Monday revised down its expectations for 2026 core earnings to take into account extra costs linked to the Middle East crisis.
The de-consolidation of its shallow-water drilling business, which Saipem recently sold, also impacted the full-year estimate, it said.
The Milan-based group now expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to come in at €1.75 billion ($1.99 billion) this year, down from a previous estimate of €1.9 billion.
The company said it included in the new forecast both the extra costs already incurred due to the conflict in the Middle East and an estimate of future expenses that could affect the second part of this year.
"The recoverability of these extra costs cannot be precisely quantified at this stage, as it is subject to the outcome of commercial discussions with clients," Saipem said in a statement.
The group - which counts Saudi Aramco (2223.SE), QatarEnergy, Abu Dhabi's ADNOC and other national energy companies among its clients - spent around €70 million in the first half to enhance security for its personnel in the Gulf region and to overcome logistical difficulties due to the Iran war.
It confirmed a previous €1 billion forecast for its full-year operating cash flow.
The group said adjusted EBITDA fell nearly 3% in the second quarter to €402 million, missing an analyst consensus of €464 million compiled by LSEG.
($1 = 0.8792 euros)
The de-consolidation of its shallow-water drilling business, which Saipem recently sold, also impacted the full-year estimate, it said.
The Milan-based group now expects its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to come in at €1.75 billion ($1.99 billion) this year, down from a previous estimate of €1.9 billion.
The company said it included in the new forecast both the extra costs already incurred due to the conflict in the Middle East and an estimate of future expenses that could affect the second part of this year.
"The recoverability of these extra costs cannot be precisely quantified at this stage, as it is subject to the outcome of commercial discussions with clients," Saipem said in a statement.
The group - which counts Saudi Aramco (2223.SE), QatarEnergy, Abu Dhabi's ADNOC and other national energy companies among its clients - spent around €70 million in the first half to enhance security for its personnel in the Gulf region and to overcome logistical difficulties due to the Iran war.
It confirmed a previous €1 billion forecast for its full-year operating cash flow.
The group said adjusted EBITDA fell nearly 3% in the second quarter to €402 million, missing an analyst consensus of €464 million compiled by LSEG.
($1 = 0.8792 euros)
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